Monday PM and Long-Range

October 7th, 2013 at 3:05 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Monday early PM – The last band of showers is moving thru the area and off to the SE with at least breaks in the clouds if not partly cloudy coming soon from NW to SE.  The morning run of the GFS gives W. Michigan lows in the upper 30s to near 40 and highs in the mid 60s to near 70 for Tues. to Thurs. with a fair amount of sun.  The GFS-plot keeps us dry from tonight through the day on Saturday, with showers Sat. night thru Sunday midday.  It gives us partly sunny or increasing clouds and low-mid 70s for next Saturday with a trend toward colder weather in the 3rd week of October.    I’m off Monday – Friday, working next Sat., Sun. and all of next week.  I’ve got a couple of Dr. appts., getting suits cleaned after ArtPrize and getting caught up at home.  I may get down to Illinois for a couple days to see my mother.  She’s amazing.  On her own at 94-years old, she’s successfully lobbied the Park Commission to get a plaque to honor Father Vattman (1841-1919), whom Vattman Park is named for in Wilmette, IL.  He accomplished so much.  He could speak English, Greek, Hebrew, Latin, German, French, Italian and he was especially known for his command of the Teton dialect of the Sioux nation.  He translated books into the Sioux language and lobbied on their behalf in Washington D.C.  To the Sioux he was known as “The Large Pine Tree”.  He was well known to six Presidents and got President Teddy Roosevelt to come to Wilmette to plant a tree, as Father Vattman pushed for public parkland.  He traveled to the Philippines and to Rome to meet the Pope and has a town named for him, Vattman, Texas.

Rainfall for Sat. night/Sunday totaled 3.05″ on Mackinac Island, 2.87″ at Pellson and 1.97″ at Traverse City, where they’ve had 3.77″ in the first 6 days of October.  Grand Rapids had just 0.20″ on Sunday, but that brings the week’s total to 2.01″.  Grand Rapids is +5.09″ for 2013.  The Bailing Bucket Award goes to Louisville KY, with 7.11″ in 36 hours.  Other 24-hour totals included 5.37″ at Panama, Florida (from the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, 4.45″ at Paducah, Kentucky, 3.42″ at Cincinnati and 2.89″ at Indianapolis.  It warmed into the upper 40s to mid 50s over the snowcover in Wyoming and western S. Dakota, causing rapid snowmelt and some local flooding.  High temperatures reached 91 in Los Angeles, 83 in San Francisco, 91 in Washington D.C., but only 59 farther northeast in Boston.  Waterloo, Iowa had a high of just 48 and Des Moines was a cool 51.  The first 6 days of October were 10.5 deg. warmer than average in G.R.

 

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

39 Responses to “Monday PM and Long-Range”

  1. kevin. w says:

    Hey Bill got a question for you. I’ve noticed on most of the models there is alot of stratospheric warming starting to show up. I’m also seeing on a couple of models that the warming may be extreme and read that it most likely will bring very cold and stormy weather across the United States and Europe. I looked at the high res euro and it starting to show signs of some sort of northern hemispheric changes. I read an article about these events and they tied in with the winters of ’76, ’77 ’78 and I believe ’58.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Stratospheric warming over the pole often allows colder air to push south into the U.S. There are some signs that this will be a cold winter – the buildup of Arctic ice, the neutral (to maybe very slight El Nino) pattern across the Equatorial Pacific – the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic (see 1977: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Atlantic_hurricane_season). These patterns tend to produce overall winter troughs in the highly populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Eastern N. America, Europe and China). I would also note the quiet sun (lower number of sunspots, weaker solar wind and solar magnetism) and the growing icecaps at both poles. If the prevailing storm track sets up southeast of us, giving us both synoptic snow and lake-effect behind the synoptic systems, we’re going to be in for a Rocky winter!

  2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Rain in the morning really messes my routine. I just heard some thunder so now I can use the water or take a shower for another 30 minutes. But the sound of rain is always relaxing :)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I can’t use the water, not can! DO NOT take a shower with lightning!

  3. INDY says:

    Wow below normal temps again with more rain must be fall !!!! INDYY

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Warm weekend after all with no severe that I saw. Bummer.

    Today may mark the first below average temperature for GR in almost 2 weeks. With average highs now only in the low to mid 60′s, the rest of the week looks very mild for this time of year. The next week looks mild too:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    Could this be that rare year in which parts of Lower Michigan go the whole month of October without seeing a big freeze? That would be something.

    Go Tigers! I can’t believe tickets are so cheap for today’s game. Less than $20 on StubHub.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Go Tigers!!! The weather is great, still sailing :) Sailing will continue right into November hopefully.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I would not count on not having a freeze unless we get into the last week and still not have had a freeze. All it takes is a clear calm night and that still can happen. As for the Tigers I see were the tickets for today’s and tomorrows game can be had on the cheap side maybe it’s the time of the game and the fact that for some reason the Tigers can not score runs. Not sure why they are having tumble scoring but if they continue this could be the last two home game this year,
      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Have some faith, Slim!

        I thought they’ve looked really good against Oakland so far. Very close to winning both on the road! We should have the big advantage today when it comes to starting pitching.

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I wasn’t aware that severe weather was forecasted.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        On Friday, SPC had SW Mich in the Slight Risk for Saturday, and SE Mich was in the Slight Risk for Sunday.

        I was too busy to see if they continued those forecasts into the weekend or not.

        1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          Ya the slight risk got washed away, all the moisture got caught in the storms to the south of michigan. I remember a Halloween about 3 or 4 years ago where we had like 10 tornado warnings down here from storms that weren’t even producing lightning, I think only one was confirmed around sturgis?

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It seems I read that Bill or Cort said that a Slight Risk only means a 15% chance of severe weather within a 75-mile radius of a given point – or something like that. The Slight Risk areas tend to be really massive, so I usually take them with a grain of salt.

        3. Cort S. says:

          This storm system was real hit-or-miss for Michigan. Here is how the Slight Risk on Saturday performed overall:

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20131005_1200.gif

          Here are some charts (halfway down the page) that break down the categorical risk conventions of Slight, Moderate, and High, based on severe weather probability within a 25 miles of a given location.

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Thanks Cort.

    4. Brad says:

      Be careful, Travis, before Bill posts your “will not be published” email address and personal information. I wonder how the station will deal with that…

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        That’s right, Brad (brad@regressivesocialism.com)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Yes they also messed up on the hurricane forecast too!

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Technically, they are only probabilistic in their forecasts. Not actual predictions. A 40% or 50% probability they are forecasting, still means it’s a 50/50 chance or greater they will be incorrect.

      Regarding October, their initial warm forecast for our area was out way before Bill or any posters even started making predictions about the month. In fact, at that time, most of the winter nuts were posting long-term models showing big cold in early-mid October. Pretty impressive in my book that they saw the heat coming so far in advance.

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        It is only October 7, I have been enjoying the mild days. I personally would rather have mind 70s and then a switch to winter. Instead of 50s and low 60s. We will have to see what happens, Mother Nature will always be unpredictable. I would not consider my self a cold weather nut but am hoping for a decent winter where the snow sticks all winter and we don’t have it melting all winter long like every year. Plus we haven’t had a good winter storm in a couple year except for the ice storm along 94 in 2011?

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well we are now a week into October 2013. This was a rather warm week with temps well above average. In fact GR tied the record warmest minimum on the 4th with a low of 65° witch tied the record with 1951. And GR set a now record warmest minimum on October 5th with a reported low of 65 witch broke the record low of 64 set in 2005. I did not receive any where near as much rain as the airport did on Friday and thus my rain fall totals for the month are less then what is being officially reported 1.28” vs. 2.01”.
    SlimJim

  6. DF (SE Mich) says:

    South Dakota over the weekend, looks like February… ;)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CRr-Xm516o

  7. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Hopefully these lake effect rain showers clear up by the afternoon!!! Need to get out to the stand, nothing on radar but it’s raining pretty steady.

    1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

      Agreed. I went out Saturday and got poured on

  8. INDY says:

    Again low below temps must be Fall…..Leaves are a falling heat is cranked bring on winter!! INDYY

    1. arcturus says:

      High temps Tuesday – Sunday: all above average. What winter?

      1. INDY says:

        Good Luck with that TravASS!! INDYY

      2. yooper4021 says:

        The new average or old average? What does average really mean these days anyway?

  9. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Wow another week of mostly above average temps. Great fall so far.

  10. Cort S. says:

    Rapid City, South Dakota meteorologists hiked to work after the blizzard, and the meteorologists at the office during the blizzard rotated cat naps. (I was working only 3 hours north of Rapid City this summer. Good thing I got out of there when I did!)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/07/weather-service-forecasters-overcome-nastiest-elements-in-fed-shutdown-hike-to-work-in-blizzard/

  11. Cort S. says:

    Pretty cool radar animation from this afternoon. You can see the cold front spilling into DC.

    http://imgur.com/RAWkPFx

  12. Cort S. says:

    American Meteorological Society president Marshall Shepherd talks about some of the less-visible impacts that the shutdown is having on the weather enterprise. If you love weather (and there’s a good chance that you do since you are reading this), it is important that you understand this. Bill, Storm Team 8, and the forecasters at the NWS are manning the storefront of meteorology. There is so much that goes on in the back of the shop.

    http://weatherandtheshutdown.blogspot.com/2013/10/implications-of-shutdown-on-weather.html

  13. Jeff (Fremont) says:

    I’m surprised Bill didn’t mention this meteor shower that we’re supposed to get tonight, anyone know anything about it. I believe it’s called Draconid.

    1. Jack says:

      Hi Jeff, Found this for You!!! October 7-8, 2013, the Draconids
      The radiant point for the Draconid meteor shower almost coincides with the head of the constellation Draco the Dragon in the northern sky. That’s why the Draconids are best viewed from the Northern Hemisphere. The Draconid shower is a real oddity, in that the radiant point stands highest in the sky as darkness falls. That means that, unlike many meteor showers, the Draconids are more likely to fly in the evening hours than in the morning hours after midnight. This shower is usually a sleeper, producing only a handful of languid meteors per hour in most years. But watch out if the Dragon awakes! In rare instances, fiery Draco has been known to spew forth many hundreds of meteors in a single hour. In 2013, the thin waxing crescent moon won’t cast enough moonlight to interfere with the Draconids. Try watching at nightfall and early evening on October 7 and 8.
      Keep Looking UP….. And STAY CUED!!! Happy Viewing !!! :-)

      1. Jeff (Fremont) says:

        Hey, thanks Jack!

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It looks like great golf weather for this week. Enjoy it while you can because we will be getting hammered this winter! Bring on the COLD and SNOW!

  15. Was reading some longer range models, and they hint at a transition period about October 30th. They predict heavy rain for oct. 30 and for oct. 31 (Halloween). Following into the time of November 1-6 they have rain early in november, then turning colder about the 3rd or 4th with snow showers. We will see!!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Subject to change! But that would be awesome of this unknown forecast model is right.

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