Mostly Sunny and Warm Again

October 8th, 2013 at 11:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Photo: " Autumn Hawthorne Berries and Leaves"  This evening from the shoreline of Lake Michigan in West Michigan.   Friday – Tigers Win!  I went to the Meijer Gardens on Thurs. and bumped into Lena Meijer who was out enjoying the day.   We’re into our fourth week of relatively warm and sunny weather.  The Gardens were full of flowers, we saw quite a few different birds.  Green is still the most common color, but we’re getting a smattering of the yellows, oranges and reds.  We met another couple for pizza and then watched baseball.  If you look at Thursday’s high temperature map, it was warmer in Muskegon than it was in Phoenix or Tucson…warmer in Sault Ste. Marie than it was in Las Vegas (which was stuck in the mid 60s for the 2nd day in a row.  Another beautiful mostly sunny day today, look for highs in the low 70s…high temperatures were low 70s over most of the state Weds. and Thurs.

Model data from Thurs. nights runs:  The NAM (caribou) has 70, 76, 63 for Fri.-Sat.-Sun. with 38 Monday AM, and 0.08″ of rain Sat. evening.  The GFS plot has 69-74-62 with 0.14″ Sat. evening/night.  The GFS (which has a tendency to overdo cold air in the long-term, has our first general hard freeze the 25th/26th and we would probably have at least snow flurries then (again…it’s the GFS, don’t get excited yet).  The European has 0.15″ of rain Sat. night and the next rain Tuesday PM into Thurs. with high temperatures back to the mid 50s to low 60s late next week.  I’m off one more day today (Friday), then I work the evening shift Sat. and Sun.

Previous:  The high temperature yesterday Weds. was 73 way up at Moosinee up by James Bay!  Moosinee is 372 miles north of S. Ste. Marie.  Contrast that to the afternoon high of 66 in Las Vegas and San Diego.  San Diego had 0.26″ of rain.  L.A. had their first measurable rain since July 26th Lake Sabrina CA had 7″ of snow.  Houghton was as warm as Tallahassee, Florida on Weds.  The remnants of Tropical Storm Karen gave Hatteras N.C. 4.76″ rain in 24-hours and 6.70″ of rain in 48 hours.  Wind gusts hit 55 mph on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.  Tides of 2-3 feet above average were reported.  High temps. in the rain Weds. were 60 in Richmond VA and 65 at Wilmington NC.   We have a crescent moon tonight in the west, with Venus shining brightly below and to the right of the moon.  The kp-index was a 4 for much of the night, not quite high enough for the Aurora Borealis to be visible to most of West Michigan, though northern latitudes have had a great show.

While I had a couple of medical appts. on Weds., my wife went fishing (with Peter Chan Sr. -Jr. did TV – Jr. is living in New Hampshire now – and friend, John) and brought back some nice bass, bluegill and sunfish, so we had an awesome dinner.  My mother said they have a big display of Michigan apples in her local supermarket in Illinois.  She bought a bag of Michigan golden delicious apples today and eats 1-2 apples per day now.  She’s got bridge club today (Thurs.).   I’m not a bridge player, but it sure would be nice to play bridge well at 94 years old (my mother and her bridge partner finished 2nd in the club tournament last year).

The overnight run of the NAM gives G.R. 0.21″ of rain late Sat. into Sat. night, with highs of 69-72-75 the next 3 days (probably a couple degrees too cool on today (Thurs.).  The European is similar, with highs of 70-70-73 and 0.30″ of rain Saturday night with more rain late Tues. into early Weds. and a trend to significant cooler (but not frigid) temperatures next week.  With cooler air coming over a warm Lake Michigan, expect lots of clouds from about Tuesday on…but maybe no hard freeze if we can hold the west wind.   I’m not going to stay up for the European.

I did some yardwork Tues., then took the kayak to Crockery Lake.  I counted 3 boats on the lake, saw several great blue herons, a couple swans making the heart shape as they touched beaks and several good-sized fish jumped in front of me.  G.R. had a pleasant high of 72 Tues. PM, 69 in Battle Creek and Muskegon. Cadillac rose from a frosty 32 to 69 this afternoon.   Look for lots of sunshine and pleasant October temperatures over the next couple days.  The first 9 days of October were 8.0 deg. warmer than average in G.R.!!   CFS model predicts a cold winter for much of the U.S. and Europe.   Picture courtesy of Jack Martin.

99 Responses to “Mostly Sunny and Warm Again”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Last year at this time, GR had a big freeze of 32 degrees. Nothing like that this year.

    Looks like perfect weather for at least the next 10 days. Go Tigers!

  2. JACK MARTIN says:

    Thank You Bill. Loving the weather without a doubt! Enjoy your time off!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Nice work, Jack. Another fantastic pic.

  3. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    Yes, Gooooooooooooo Tigers!

    1. Jack says:

      Tigers WIIIIIINNNNNNNN. !!!!!! ” Hard on THEEEE OLD TICKER” !!! …. Stay CUED!!!!

  4. GunLakeDeb says:

    Lol!! The swans with the pretty arched necks and orange beaks are Mute Swans and they eat kayakers for breakfast. Give them a wide berth…..
    If you see bigger swans with all-black beaks, give them a wide berth, too, because they’re the threatened Trumpeter Swans and it would be awesome to have them nest!!!!! (They’re also gentler than their smaller cousins)

    1. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

      Should the DNR kill off the Mute Swans? It’s been a big debate most of the summer.

      1. Brad says:

        I like the mute swans that scare the bejesus out of drunken ski-doers. The more violent swans should stay.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        It seems that some lake have big populations of Mute Swans – and they’re aggressive enough to drive out any Trumpeters looking for a place to nest. Aside from amusing Brad with attacks on boaters….LOL!… reducing their numbers is a good idea.

      3. Bill Steffen says:

        I get concerned when they talk about killing off invasive species. I’m from Illinois…I’m an invasive species here in Michigan!

  5. Jack says:

    I Live in The City so I wasn’t able To see The ” Northern Lights”, But I did Catch a Couple ” Shooting Stars”. !!! ;-)

  6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    GR still hasn’t had a colder than average day in 15 days and counting. The streak will likely hit 21+ days.

    This could very well be the longest, uninterrupted mild stretch of weather in years.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The high temp was below normal two days ago. Only the highs mattered in Flint not that long ago.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Scrolling around randomly I found GR had 27 days with no below average in 2009 November into December.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Hopefully the weather stays good for the weekend to get some sailing in. I’ll take this as long as it keeps coming.

    Almost all of Michigan is +5° or more for October, so far. Our gain is always others pain however, Bozeman, MT -8.8° for October. The NW US is the loser in this pattern.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      I don’t think they mind. They’ve been really warm.

      Seattle only slightly below for October. Would be there first below average month since all the way back to January.

      For Billings, Montana, it would be their first since April.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Billings has a had a very average summer. Bozeman, MT has only been above average slightly in September this year… They’ve been really cold all but one month in 2013. Only one month above average for most of West Montana including the capital in Helena, ouch. Although no one who lives in Montana should care about cold ;)

  8. kevin. w says:

    No sense of talking about to much on here it just ends up getting bashed/kicked and that’s why most of this blog pretty much stinks. I’m just going to e-mail Bill about any weather topics at least he won’t bash your conversation. :)

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Since I’ve been here since almost day one I can tell you people come and people go, sometimes they come back, sometimes they don’t… but most of the time they just change their name ;)

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        I like to sit back and enjoy the show, I notice how people come and go with how the weather is. Or they just cherry pick there findings. You do a great job DF bringing common sense to the table. You, Cort, and Kevin W do a great job.

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        I also have been here for a long, long time and I will agree with DF that people do come and go. And yes some very good personas have left. But I agree with DF that a lot of personas just change their name again and again! And there seem to be several that use different personas just to “talk” to themselves
        SlimJim

  9. GunLakeDeb says:

    Crud. I was out on the lake last night watching the DNR do a “Fish Survey” – and was admiring the sky because it was SOOOOOO clear last night! I saw meteorites/satellites/the crossways view of the Milky Way – but no Northern Lights. They must have put in an appearance much later in the evening….

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      It was about 9:30 or 10 last night when I saw them. Nothing much, just a pretty good green glow right on the North horizen. The original predictions had them coming further south, but they never did. Keep watching the next couple nights. There is good solar wind coming out of a coronal hole and there was another big cme yesterday, not directed right at us, but you never know for sure.

  10. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The longer range GFS shows some bouts of colder air coming into the region starting next week. For the first time, it actually shows our first flakes of snow around the last week of October. However, I know the long range models aren’t very accurate. Snowflakes the last week of October would not be unusual.

    1. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

      Need for the leaves to get off the trees before we get any heavy wet snow.
      Or it will be Lights Out for alot of us.

  11. Jack says:

    Beautiful October Day !!! The ” Sunshnie is SUPER MAN ” !!!! CUE, Donavan ::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v4P7kqaeUM :-)

  12. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    The acculess weather’s winter guess came out today and according to their guess we could have a snowy winter but hey only time will tell. Right!

    Here is the acculess weathers winter guess

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742

    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Since in A2 all I get snow from is from storms, I am liking this map.

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Their winter GUESS… They are rarely right

      1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Severe storms in Ohio…above average snow for Michigan. Well..who knows. We haven’t had many big storms that last couple of winters.

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          I guess that means the jet stream will set up just south of us…. which typically means a very snowy pattern for our area.

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          The one difference I noticed this year, oppose to the last 2, is the acorns dropped a lot later this year. I don’t know if, or what, this may or may not be a sign of for the upcoming winter.

        3. Cort S. says:

          Natural processes such as tree seed production and timing are generally reactive instead of predictive, based on the stresses imposed on them over the course of the preceding growing season(s).

  13. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Near record warmth today across the UP. One of those strange days it’s warmer up there. Low to mid 70′s right now.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      LP temps now 67-72. UP temps now 64-74. It’s really not that uncommon that the UP has similar temps as us.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Pretty rare! I see even Bill picked up on it.

        I’m showing a high of 80 degrees yesterday at the NWS Twin Lakes State Park station just south of Houghton. And a couple other upper 70′s.

        Much warmer than GR’s 71 yesterday.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It’s always amazing to see what one big ridge can do.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Thanks for the information, however the federal shutdown is hurting many more people far more seriously than the NWS! Congress and DC are 100% dysfunctional and they are destroying the USA!

      1. Cort S. says:

        The shutdown is affecting everyone, and along with the sequester, it is slowing the growth of the entire economy — the pie from which we all get a slice. However, since this is a weather blog, it is important to know how it is affecting the weather enterprise… public, private, academic. It already has affected the meteorologists at 8, and it’s doing so much more behind the scenes. Current president of the American Meteorological Society, Marshall Shepherd, discusses how:

        http://weatherandtheshutdown.blogspot.com/2013/10/implications-of-shutdown-on-weather.html

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see Travis is still delusional and Acculess weather is predicting above normal snowfall for us!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      I see you are still delusional. You have been predicting cold for two months not. Epic fail as usual. Who knew? Fantastic. Thanks for listening.

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The CPC has us in the near normal temps and the below normal temps will be right behind that. Get ready the transition to WINTER will begin latter this month. Bring on the COLD and SNOW – the more SNOW the better! ROCK ON baby!

  16. Dan says:

    I see Rodey continues with his crush on you Rocky. Oh well, to each his own!
    How about them Tigers? Was that about the BEST BASEBALL game you have ever watched? WOW, last night’s game was like, we have woken up from our late season slumber!
    HERE comes the TIGERS!! I believe Verlander will pitch great tomorrow night. We will continue with the hitting from last night and get a BIG WIN!! GO TIGERS ALCS BOUND.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      The bigger question is, who do the A’s start. The old man with experience, or the young guy the Tigers could not hit against?

      1. Jack says:

        Darn GOOD Question Brian !!!! I’d Chose EXP. Over Rookie… But, That’s Just my Opinion ! We shall See STAY CUED, and GO TIGERS!!!!! ;-)

        1. Brian (Grandville) says:

          Jack, what direction were you seeing the meteors last night?

        2. Jack says:

          Northern Sky , Brian ! Also Looks Like The A’s are going To Start THE ROOKIE . Wow, That Surprises Me. !! J.V. Versus The Kid . Should Be a DANDY ! Stay Cued, and GO TIGERS !!!!! ;-)

    2. SBPortage002 says:

      I hope the Tigers can win Thursday, but they have been so inconsistent with their hitting, it is hard to tell which bats show up.

  17. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    I see Dan is still a hypocrite and loser. Oh well

  18. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    Camping out in Yankee Springs until Saturday. I would say next weekend will be the best time for a color tour. The trees still have alot of green. GO TIGERS you can DO IT.

  19. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Had an awesome ISS flyover last night. The blog used to post these all the time. Not following it as much anymore?

    http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/hally_vogel/perfect-weather-to-view-the-international-space-station-tonight

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I post it once in a while. I’ve been on vacation the past few days.

  20. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    WGN’s Tom Skilling has a neat graphic showing how much warmer fall has gotten for our area since 1970.

    Michigan is now the second fastest-warming state in the country since 1970. Just about every state has warmed – with the exception being the extreme southwest.

    http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/FEATUREGRAPHIC101013.jpg

    1. Jacob G says:

      Since the 70′s we have been averaging a cold pdo and warm amo. Not surprising, I would bet on the flip side our springs have been cooler. This year the north Atlantic is very warm again. But I still see a pretty good cool down coming and snap into early winter. Enjoy these last nice days!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Actually, I misread the graphic – as there is a lot going on. All states have warmed. The graphic is showing fall temperatures only.

        For the entire year, Michigan is now the second fastest-warming state in the country since 1970.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I hope the trend continues.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          And yet, the average temperature for the decade of the 1930s in Grand Rapids was one degree warmer than the decade of the 2000s. Here’s the January temperature by decade for Grand Rapids: http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2011/01/January-temperatures-by-decade-part-two1.png

          As Travis said…it warmed from the 1970s to the 1990s, temperatures were steady in G.R. in the 2000s (same as globally)…but that’s cherry picking the beginning and end of the graph to get just the upward temperature movement. When you go back to 1900, the graph shows temperatures going down and then back up…we’re close to where we were 110 years ago.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It is always convenient to start in the coldest decade and stop on the hottest year… Start the same graphic in the 1930′s and Michigan would be much cooler in 2013.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Funny how that works isn’t it??

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        It’s been a good year for cherries too.

  21. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Yet another nice and warm October day is in store for us today. One only has to wonder how long this will last. This is from today’s weather history from the GR NWS office and just shows you how variable the weather can be here in Michigan this time of year.

    On October 10 in Southwest Lower Michigan…
    10/10/1879
    Southwest Lower Michigan is in the midst of a long spell of warm weather. Lansing rises into the 80s for seven out of the eight days from October 5th through the 12th. This includes the record high of 84 degrees on October 10th, which was preceded by a record 83 degrees on the 9th and followed by 85 degrees on the 11th.
    10/10/1906
    An early season snowstorm drops 4 to 8 inches of snow from Ludington to South Haven. Temperatures plunge into the teens the next morning, killing thousands of fruit trees, enough to alter the agricultural economy of southwest Lower Michigan

  22. Sandi says:

    Hey Bill do ya suppose we could keep this weather until next June? Heh heh. Lovin’ it!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

    2. Jack says:

      + ME…. Stay CUED!!! :-)

      1. Aug says:

        Go live in Florida.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Too hot.

        2. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

          To many old people that cant drive worth a $hit. Been there done that :/

  23. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    Beautiful day today! Looking forward to a Tigers win tonight!! Goooooooooo Tigers!!!

    1. Jack says:

      DITTO …… Sherry !!!! Stay Cued…… ;-)

  24. Aug says:

    Can someone at wood tell Kyle to move when he is showing the 8 day? He always stands there and blocks off the last few days.

  25. Matt ( Grand Haven ) says:

    Will this major Hurricane near India Change our weather pattern and turn us colder?

  26. Dan says:

    Lets go Tigers! You’ve got to like our chances! Verlander pitched great his last few outings! He will take a no hitter into the 7th. The Tiger bats will again come alive. Sonny skies become gray as the Tigers beat the As!

  27. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready for winter. About the end of October the bottom will be falling out and we will see plenty of SNOW in November and then we will be getting pounded in December. It is going to be a fun winter! Oh by the way Travis is delusional and you can not believe a word that he says!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      No where near as delusional as you are. Nice try though. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

  28. Jack says:

    TIGERS WIN!!!!!!!!!!! LET THE PARTY BEGIN !!!!!!!!!!!! :-) ;-) . :-)

    1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

      Great game Jack! Plus great weather here at home. What else can ya ask for?

      1. Jack says:

        LET’S See…. Northern Lights Show, Meteorite Show, A Clap or 2 of Thunder , Vivid Lightning , ECT . ECT …. LOLOl… Stay CUED…. ” Tigers Will Be World Series CHAMPS” !!!! Then The Snow Can Start I Guess ? Certainly AWESOME Outside For THIS FRIDAY FALL DAY ( or morning ) !!!! Peak COLORS Coming SOON ?

      2. Jack says:

        Hey, Vincent !! I thought of something Else To Ask For !! ” DEVIL WITH A BLUE DRESS ” !! CUE! :::::::http://link.mlblists.com/r/XN5PM2/PP7A3D/JI1TCWG/FCCPNL/953IV0/X8/h?a=7605756&b=611433793

      3. Jack says:

        Whoops Wrong Link or Cue …. A little Mitch Ryder & The Detroit Wheels ::::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yLuodUQzpE. ;-)

  29. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    After almost 3 weeks of consistent above average temperatures, an amplified pattern is setting up for next week – the infamous Greenland Block. Will be interesting to see how far east the ridge builds.

    Warm to the east, cool to the west, and then warm again along the Pacific Coast and Alaksa. Michigan seems to be right in the middle with closer to normal temps.

  30. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    I was in Flagstaff and Tucson last week. Not a cloud in the sky. In Flagstaff, it was in the low to mid 70′s each day. We spent afternoons in the pool when we weren’t being tourists. Yesterday, Flagstaff had snow on the ground. Last Friday and Saturday, Tucson was in the upper 80′s to mid 90′s. What a difference a week makes.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The official low at Capital City Airport – about ten miles west of me – was 40. However, the dew on the roof and trunk lid of my car was frozen.

  31. Kimoeagle says:

    The weather in the Bay of Bengal isn’t lookin’ good. A large and ferocious typhoon is headed for NE India.
    So, enjoy the good weather we’re now having………..Carpe Diem.

    1. kevin. w says:

      pattern change for the U.S. will be interesting.

  32. Dan says:

    How about them Tigers? Justin Verlander almost pitches a No-No! He has pitched a total of 31 innings of scoreless playoff baseball! Miggy goes yard! Turning point in the Detroit /Oakland series was Mad Max pitching out of a jam in game 4. Bases loaded, no outs! Now, its on to Boston on Saturday night. Boston has a much more potent offense. Good pitching can quiet big hitters. We also need to continue to increase our hitting!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Great game – go Tigers!

  33. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The new CPC 6 to 14 outlook has us in below average temperatures! Get ready for winter! Rodey – I mean fixxxer is on drugs and needs to get a life! Pathetic!

  34. Jack says:

    Looks Like a Nice ISS Flyover Tonight !!!! See Here, ” DON’T FORGET TO WAVE ” and Yell What a AWESOME Fall FRYDAY in MICHIGAN !!!! spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/view.cfm?country…Grand_Rapids.

  35. Jack says:

    Fri Oct 18, 8:35 PM 2 min 18° 10 above NW 18 above N  

  36. Jack says:

    blogs.woodtv.com/2012/04/12/space-station-flyovers-4/

  37. Jack says:

    Hey Bill, Help Me out Here ! I’m trying to put Up a Link for ISS Flyover TONIGHT !!! Don’t Know what I’m Doing Wrong !!! HELP!!!!!!!!! Anyone if BILL, isn’t Available !!!M staying CUED…….should be a DECENT Viewing TONIGHT!!!!!!

  38. Jack says:

    spaceweather.com/flybys/

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks RAD !!!!!! :-)

      1. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

        Your more than Welcome.

    2. Jack says:

      Here is a OLD CUE, as WE Go OUTSIDE 2 WATCH The ISS Flyover at 7:42 …..!!!!!! CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzkU_ckRXHY. ;-)

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