Two Sunny Days

October 13th, 2013 at 3:06 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

difax highs    HOLY SMOKES!  Boston wins 6-5 – in the bottom of the 9th inning.   I’m working this (Sunday) evening.   I’ll have a fresh 8-day forecast after Sunday Night Football on WOOD, TV-8.  Definitely a cooler pattern for the coming week.  The map is high temperatures from Saturday.  Click on the image to enlarge.  Grand Rapids had a high of 78 on Saturday, 16 degrees above the average high temperature (BTW, the high was 16 deg. warmer than average, the low was 6 deg. warmer than average.  The way the NWS figures, that was 12 deg. warmer than avg.  In my book, if you add 16 +6 and divide by 2, you get 11).  Anyway, the most impressive temperature on that map IMHO is the high of 76 at Moosinee, which is 375 miles north of S. Ste. Marie by James Bay.  The average high yesterday for Moosinee is 48, so the 76 was 28 deg. warmer than avg.  This was the 3rd time Moosinee has reached the mid 70s this month.  However, they are only 4.7 deg. warmer than average, because they’ve also had a handful of days with highs in the low-mid 40s.  You can see the cooler air from the Pacific Northwest east to Minnesota and with a NW wind, we’ll tap into that cooler air.   Say “goodbye” to the mid-upper 70s.  We’ll lots of highs in the low-mid 60s this week, back to average and maybe even some 50s later in the week.  Our next rain starts Tues. evening and showers are possible through at least Thursdays.  From Oct. 1-12, we had 11 days with high temperatures from 70 to 80 and we are +7.2 deg. for the first 13 days of the month.

Model data:  NAM (caribou) has highs of 63 Sunday and Monday (37 Monday AM) for G.R. with rain starting shortly before sunset on Tuesday.  That model has the most rain at 0.96″.  The GFS plot has low 60s for Sun./Mon. with 0.31″ of rain Tues. evening/night with daytime temps. in the low-mid 50s from Weds. to Fri. and only in the 40s most of Saturday.  The European model gives G.R. 0.45″ of rain late Tues. into early Weds. and another 0.15″ Weds. night into Thurs.  The overnight run of the European isn’t as cool as the Sat. run.  It still has highs in the mid 50s next weekend with urban lows staying above 35.  So, basically back to near average temperatures, rather than an early winter blast.  The PNA is going positive (more ridging in the West).  The NAO goes negative (trough in the East), then tries to bounce back.  The Arctic Oscillation is bouncing aroundArctic ice is expanding (usual) and there is sure a lot more ice than last year at this time.  Antarctic ice is near a record extent, more ice than last year and more than 2 standard deviations from average.   Also, here’s another peer-reviewed paper on the 11+ year lull in “global warming”.  Co-author Dr. Marcia Wyatt said:   “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,” said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012.”

Check out this pic. from Telluride, Colorado.  Check out the winds and pressure drop from Cyclone Phailin.  Measured gust to 115 mph – not many trees standing after that kind of wind.  Typhoon Wipha intensifying.  It’ll scoot past Japan on the east side and curve toward the Gulf of Alaska as it transitions from a tropical storm to an extratropical windy, low pressure center.  In the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico, the ACE Index (a measure of the number and intensity of tropical storms) is 6th lowest since 1950.  Also record cold in the Netherlands, snow comes “weeks early” in Germany and 100 rescued after blizzard in Russia (see pic. at link)

53 Responses to “Two Sunny Days”

  1. Dan says:

    So to summarize, cooler but cold yet? I know, this is a couple weeks away but what does the weather look like for November 1, 2 and 3? Our soccer team will be playing in a tournament that weekend! Yesterday was awesome! How about them Tigers? Sanchez had it going! I’ll take the win 1-0 especially, given Boston’s potent offense! Could you imagine the series coming to Detroit with Detroit holding a 2-0 lead?

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Guess we were wrong to be so down on Verlander huh Dan!

      No mid-October freeze after all… What do I win? ;)

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        It has froze, just not in your backyard.

      2. Dan says:

        Travis, I’m still holding out some hope that we get a freeze within the next week or so. I know, my prediction was wrong. It does look to get cooler by the end of this week. High 40s or low 50s, not cold yet.
        Verlander looks to be so dialed in! Disappointing loss last night. We had that game. Why didn’t Smokes let Scherzer go the distance?
        He was pitching very, very well! Verlander goes tomorrow. Maybe we wrap up the ALCS in Detroit! Here is hoping! GO TIGERS!!

  2. GunLakeDeb says:

    This has been an incredible weekend!! Perfect weather, colorful, sunny. Everything I hope for in October!!

  3. ninifere says:

    I know it’s a long way out and accuweather isn’t known for their accuracy but they have quite the wintery setup coming in about mid November with highs in the 30′s and snow mentioned almost every day. Are you seeing the possibility of the same setup Bill?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s certainly possible. I told everyone to keep their snow shovel ready in Nov.

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    For what it’s worth, Weathertrends has a cool off for about a week beginning next weekend and then a big rebound back to the 60′s for Halloween.

    Then continued warmth in the mid to high 50′s through mid November.

    1. kevin. w says:

      Did you figure in the stratospheric warming in your global warming forecast. Cause usually when we have warming there it spells colder in Canada and the northern U.S. great lakes. And basing on what the models, NCEP, Canadian, Euro, the ridge building in the pacific it spells more below average temps than above normal temps. Like Bill said have your shovels ready in November as snows come early this year. Better do some research and analyses on the weather pattern. Thanks for listening. Love it. The beginning of global cooling starting. :) :) ;) :)

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        LOL wow. Guess you’re so called hiatus from the blog didn’t last long. I’m starting to think you’re related to Rocky.

        1. kevin. w says:

          Don’t really care and no I’m not related to Rocky and I’m putting my two cents in on any storm coming or forecast. You seem to “to know it all” so I’ll just read what you type seems like its gospel on here. LOL

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I hope Weathertrends is correct.

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      They will be wrong again, just all of your outlandish global warwing hype!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        You would know about being wrong. Fantastic. I love it. As always, thanks for listening and commenting on my remarks. Fantastic. I love it.

  5. Seems like the Snow cover for MI gets later and later!! just aroud Christmas time we get Snow. Seen Snow Rain mix in September on different occasions!! We don’t even see it in October anymore!!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Yeah, back in the old days, we pretty much always had a solid snowcover from Labor Day on into May.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Someone will debate that on Michael I’m sure.

        1. kevin. w says:

          one

    2. Barry in Zeeland says:

      I do remember raking leaves in late September and into October while getting pelted with sleet/wet snow, but now every year I’m raking in shorts and a t-shirt. Yesterday afternoon was just plain HOT working out in the sun! This year is for sure the latest we’ve ever been swimming in the pool yet. No complaints here, this weather is AWESOME!!

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Yeah, way back in 2006 we were raking leaves and having snow at the same time!
        SlimJim

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Why so many exclamation points?

  6. Austin N. says:

    I remember MANY times growing up of wearing winter coats and stuff on Halloween and snow falling…but I ALSO remember many Halloweens growing up where it was in the 70′s and our costumes being way too heavy and hot!! Ya just never know!! The weather does its own thing. Always has…always will!! Everybody just has to STOP FREAKIN OUT when we have a couple mild years or a couple bad years. Like…seriously people…I read your posts all the time and its like you WANT there to be some huge weather calamity to prove something asinine point. HAHA…I think most of you on here who are freakin out and belittling Bill Steffen (who is AWESOME BTW) need to take a chill pill and relax! Why can’t you just except that weather will do what it does and forecasting it can only go so far. So…chill out…and GROW UP!! SHEESHHHHH

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      ^makes way too much sense^

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      LOL!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Very intelligent reply. Take you a long time to think of that one? Fantastic. I love it.

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Lol.

    3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Excellent post.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        The coldest highs for Halloween in Grand Rapids were 32° in 1917 37° in 1996 and 1906. The warmest ones were 79° in 1950 78° in 1933 and 76 in 1979. As for what the temp was at trick or treat time was well looks like 1988 and 1976 may have been cold ones with lows in the low to mid 20’s.
        Slimjim

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The “global cool down” has begun. Let it continue for many years to come! I love it!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Only in your delusional mind. Fantastic. I love it.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer thanks for listening and I really appreciate your support. Keep up the good work!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          As usual thanks for listening and commenting. I love it. Fantastic. Get used to it.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          fixxxer is busy at Parkway picking up his wife.

    2. kevin. w says:

      YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Thanks for listening. Keep it up. I love it.

    3. kevin. w says:

      Yes thanks rocky

  8. arcturus says:

    Through the 12th, October has logged a whopping 96 degrees above old normal departure. October’s fate has already been sealed – well above old normal, even with cold snaps between now and month’s end.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      October has been fantastic.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      October 1-13: Grand Rapids 7.2 deg. warmer than average. Klamath Falls, Oregon 11.9 degrees cooler than average. Continental U.S. temperature anomaly for Oct. 1-13 (current 1981-2010 Climate Normals) is -0.077 deg. C.

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The 3 to 10 day outlook shows below normal temps. Keep it coming baby!

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Why do you keep complaining about the picture perfect weather we are having? You could not draw up a more excellent weather pattern than we have right now, but still you ramble and complain on and on. When have you ever contributed anything useful to this blog. Here’s an example:

      Earth directed CME, could spark Northern Lights in a day or two:
      http://spaceweather.com/

      See. Something everyone can share and enjoy. Not to hard to do.

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Be nice to him. He’s delusional and has a cold weather bias. Pathetic.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Are you on drugs? I am not complaining. I have been enjoying this great golf weather, however face the facts – winter is just around the corner!

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Again, nothing to contribute. Yet another example:

        Stats for Grand Rapids for the month of September:
        http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=clm&issuedby=grr

        See. Very easy to do. Yet another link everyone can click, share, and enjoy. Go ahead. Now you try.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for listening and keep up the good work!

  10. Jerry hoag says:

    Ahhhhhhhhhh what a refreshing weather pattern we have been in!! GOD has sure blessed us with beautiful weather!!! Now 60′s and 50′s heading our way. Then not too long from now we will have 40′s and 30′s but look at it this way!! In 3 to 4 months we will be heading to the warming months of Spring and HOPEFULLY a severe weather season of 2014!!!! This posting is looking at a standpoint of being at the very begginning of November also. So when you do your math and figure the months out we will be into Ends of Feb into March!!!! WAHOOOOOO!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Jerry, I wish we could Just , Skip Winter. And Go Directly 2 SPRING !!! My Favorite Time of YEAR !!! Stay cued Brother Jerry,and God Bless YOU!!! ++++++++++++++ Go Tigers !!!! ;-)

  11. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Go Tigers!!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Yes go Tigers but the boys will have there work cut out for them the rest of the way. I am still concerned as they are still not scoring runs.
      SlimJim

  12. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Just put down a pound of king crab legs. Wow! Its been a while, what a treat. Nice day, spent it at Robinetts for a b-day party. That place is crazy busy.

    1. Mike M. says:

      Robinette’s has crab legs now? Awesome!!

      1. Jack says:

        LOL…. Gives a Whole New Meaning To…. ” Crab- Apples ” !!!!!!! ….Lol… Stay Cued ! ;-)

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