Two Sunny DaysOctober 13th, 2013 at 3:06 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
HOLY SMOKES! Boston wins 6-5 – in the bottom of the 9th inning. I’m working this (Sunday) evening. I’ll have a fresh 8-day forecast after Sunday Night Football on WOOD, TV-8. Definitely a cooler pattern for the coming week. The map is high temperatures from Saturday. Click on the image to enlarge. Grand Rapids had a high of 78 on Saturday, 16 degrees above the average high temperature (BTW, the high was 16 deg. warmer than average, the low was 6 deg. warmer than average. The way the NWS figures, that was 12 deg. warmer than avg. In my book, if you add 16 +6 and divide by 2, you get 11). Anyway, the most impressive temperature on that map IMHO is the high of 76 at Moosinee, which is 375 miles north of S. Ste. Marie by James Bay. The average high yesterday for Moosinee is 48, so the 76 was 28 deg. warmer than avg. This was the 3rd time Moosinee has reached the mid 70s this month. However, they are only 4.7 deg. warmer than average, because they’ve also had a handful of days with highs in the low-mid 40s. You can see the cooler air from the Pacific Northwest east to Minnesota and with a NW wind, we’ll tap into that cooler air. Say “goodbye” to the mid-upper 70s. We’ll lots of highs in the low-mid 60s this week, back to average and maybe even some 50s later in the week. Our next rain starts Tues. evening and showers are possible through at least Thursdays. From Oct. 1-12, we had 11 days with high temperatures from 70 to 80 and we are +7.2 deg. for the first 13 days of the month.
Model data: NAM (caribou) has highs of 63 Sunday and Monday (37 Monday AM) for G.R. with rain starting shortly before sunset on Tuesday. That model has the most rain at 0.96″. The GFS plot has low 60s for Sun./Mon. with 0.31″ of rain Tues. evening/night with daytime temps. in the low-mid 50s from Weds. to Fri. and only in the 40s most of Saturday. The European model gives G.R. 0.45″ of rain late Tues. into early Weds. and another 0.15″ Weds. night into Thurs. The overnight run of the European isn’t as cool as the Sat. run. It still has highs in the mid 50s next weekend with urban lows staying above 35. So, basically back to near average temperatures, rather than an early winter blast. The PNA is going positive (more ridging in the West). The NAO goes negative (trough in the East), then tries to bounce back. The Arctic Oscillation is bouncing around. Arctic ice is expanding (usual) and there is sure a lot more ice than last year at this time. Antarctic ice is near a record extent, more ice than last year and more than 2 standard deviations from average. Also, here’s another peer-reviewed paper on the 11+ year lull in “global warming”. Co-author Dr. Marcia Wyatt said: “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,” said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012.”
Check out this pic. from Telluride, Colorado. Check out the winds and pressure drop from Cyclone Phailin. Measured gust to 115 mph – not many trees standing after that kind of wind. Typhoon Wipha intensifying. It’ll scoot past Japan on the east side and curve toward the Gulf of Alaska as it transitions from a tropical storm to an extratropical windy, low pressure center. In the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico, the ACE Index (a measure of the number and intensity of tropical storms) is 6th lowest since 1950. Also record cold in the Netherlands, snow comes “weeks early” in Germany and 100 rescued after blizzard in Russia (see pic. at link)