Cooler Pattern

October 15th, 2013 at 11:56 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

500mbClick on the image to enlarge.  UPDATE   1)  Accu-Weather winter forecast would favor a good amount of snow for Michigan.   2).  Pattern change indeed.  3)  WOW!  Look at the European model…that’s chilly!  4)  CFS forecast for the rest of the month would put West Michigan about 5 deg. colder than average.    However, I bet the model isn’t taking into account warm Lake Michigan, so I would not be quite that cool, but overall a cool pattern.  If clear with calm conditions, frosts and freezes possible and certainly a day with waterspouts on the Great Lakes a possibility.   5)  GFS would bring first snow to West Michigan, though again, with warmer Lake Michigan I think rain is more likely.  6)  More than a dozen fatalities in Oshima, Japan landslide caused by rain from Typhoon Wipha.  Tokyo had a gust to 73 mph and 9.92″ of rain!  Check out this picture of the storm at Yokosuka AFB south of Tokyo.  7)  Death toll now 144 from E-quake Tues. in the Philippines.   Another powerful e-quake today in the Western Pacific.   8)  Snow on the ground over much of the state of Wyoming.  We’re seeing a major shift in the weather pattern over the Great Lakes Region.  This is a map (500 mb – a constant pressure surface) that shows the general flow of air around 18,000 ft. above sea level.  You can see we have a ridge over the West Coast of North America and a trough over the Great Lakes.  Ridges are usually associated with warmer than average weather and troughs with cooler than average weather.  The map is for the early morning of Oct. 24th (GFS).  Our air flow will be coming out of northern Canada down across the Great Lakes.  After a three-week stretch of generally sunny and warm weather, we are headed into a period of colder temperatures, more cloudiness and more frequent showers.  From Sept. 24th to Oct. 12th, we had only one day when the high temperature failed to reach 70 degrees.  From Sept. 27 to Oct. 13, the average temperature for Grand Rapids was 7.2 deg. warmer than normal.   From Sept. 23 to Oct. 14, we had 75% of possible sunshine, compared to an average for that period of 51%.  The above average sunshine and mild temperatures have pushed the fall color change a week later than average.  Now, we’re going to see a lot of days with high temperatures from the upper 40s to mid 50s and a chance of showers more days than not.  Early next week we’ll probably see the first snow in Upper Michigan.  The average date of the first inch of snow in Grand Rapids is November 9th.   Lake Michigan is quite warm (63 degrees).  That warm water can warm the air a little as it crosses from Wisconsin.  It also can provide moisture for more cloudiness and occasional showers when the air is cold enough and it will likely bring the possibility of cold air funnels and even a few waterspouts.  These waterspouts are not associated with strong thunderstorms and the rotation is generally weak (under 50 mph).   Remember these waterspouts last month off Kenosha WI.

53 Responses to “Cooler Pattern”

  1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Speaking of waterspouts. Is there are a radar image that could pick one up on Sep 24th 2011 at 6:22 pm west of Munising? I was fishing Big Beaver Lake and have pics of what looks like one that was droping down on us. The lake is right off shore of the big lake. Last month I was up there for 9 days and took one off my bucket list. I canoed around the whole lake and it was a perfect day on Sep 26 th. it took 4 hrs but was a perfect warm sunny day. Put 350 miles on the ATV riding the trails. Took pics of Moose tracks on trail 8 west of Melstrand. Watched the trees go from green to fall colors. The only rain on the whole trip was on Sat night Sep 28 th. other wise it was just perfect weather for Bear camp and vacationing. Plus at night I could pick up WOOD AM 1300 and I could hear Bill and Terri’s weather forecast for back home. Crazy,but I could get the station in that far away.

    1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

      I got er messed up. Radar and moose tracks would be for East of Munising and Melstrand,Mi. Ya hit the big lake you can only go east and west. It was a long trip and I covered a lot of ground. When you are in Gods country directions do not matter. So much to see and not enough time.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I was just up there for the first time this weekend, and love that I know exactly where you are talking about. My wife and I stayed at a Bed and Breakfast in Newberry and toured all of the eastern U.P., except for Manistique and “the Soo”.

      2. Cort S. says:

        My normal high-resolution radar archive is down because of the gov’t shutdown, but here is a low-resolution archive: http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/

        1. Irish coffee says:

          I had a good breakfast at Timber Charlie’s in Newberry a few years back on a sledding excursion

        2. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

          Thanks Cort.

    2. Brad says:

      Did anyone make it to Johnny Dogs? That’s a nice little gem up there, where food options are otherwise pretty limited.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        They sure are. I didn’t make it to Johnny Dogs. I did see it when I was looking things up on TripAdvisor. My wife and I aren’t big fans of hot dogs. We did get our first dessert pasties at Muldoon’s though.

      2. Brad says:

        I haven’t tried Muldoons. Sydney’s does a nice job with whitefish and trout. The Navigator is good for heart attack breakfasts. Beautiful country up there, I hope you enjoyed it!

  2. kevin. w says:

    The euro,gfs and canadian have a heck of storm toward the end of the month almost looks like a wrapped up hurricane. Someone going to get alot of rain, wind and snow. Its been on the models for a couple days now.

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Thanks Kevin. I appreciate the update.

  3. Austin N. says:

    WOOOHOOOOO…so happy Fall has FINALLY fallen!!!! LOVE THIS WEATHER!!!! SO LONG 70′s & 80′s…see ya in 6 months hopefully!!! haha

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Gorgeous morning! Blue skies and almost 60 degrees already.

    I hit 68 degrees yesterday, and my streak is still alive. Currently 21 consecutive days without a colder than average day.

    Models still showing a huge jump in temps back to the 60′s around Halloween. A cold week before that though!

    1. INDY says:

      Stop hitting yourself… Gorgeous Idiot your are!!!! Low 60′s are really not that warm…It’s normal to have 60′s in October so what HUGE JUMP u talking about Travass???? More hits from u make us all laugh !!!! Enjoy the below normal temps outside!! INDYY

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I usually don’t respond to trolling but:

        A huge jump would be going from the predicted middle 40′s for highs back to the 60′s. Average high temps around Halloween is low to middle 50′s.

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yea, the average for Halloween in Grand Rapids is 48 degrees, so a temperature of the mid 60′s would be significantly warmer than average. However, we aren’t going to get this nice weather without a penalty. Some forecasts are hinting at highs in the low 40′s next week, and accuweather even mentioned snow! This year sure is a lot more exciting than last year because we are getting big temperature jumps as opposed to boring warm temperatures all year. Let’s hope that the snow comes very soon because I am ready for a seasonal change.

        2. INDY says:

          Again….lololololollo…..INDYY

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      You’ll be lucky to hit 60 today. You, er I mean Flint, is only forecasted for a high of 58 today.

      1. INDY says:

        Travass hit’s himself 60 times in a roll today….How about them apples!!! INDYY

        1. kevin. w says:

          I don’t see any 60s on the map for the next two weeks and if we do it would only be for 1(ONE) day. I see very unsettled/stormy weather all the way through the end of Oct./early Nov. and most models show a major storm toward the end of the month as the trough reloads. I’m waiting for the euro/super ensemble later today and betting that there is going to be a significant storm and that will set the stage for winter to begin. Bill said shovels ready in November and with the pattern coming I believe it.

          This guy isn’t travass is it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsnRUZE9Yq4

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          kevin that is about right! Perfect!

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Currently 62 degrees in Ann Arbor. 59 degrees in Bloomfield Hills down the street.

        But now the clouds and cool is coming.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Flint is 46 miles down the street from Bloomfield Hills.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Do you know where Oakland County is? I use Flint because it’s the closest major NWS station. But it’s certainly not the closest tracking station.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Ah, I understand now. You use a multitude of different locations at any given time.

  5. INDY says:

    Yeaa Kevin that fits todays 60 hits today!! Above snowfall coming in Novi get your shovels ready now!! INDYY

  6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    After a pretty cold week coming up, looks like a warm end of the month and a warm start to November if the models pan out:

    http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3676

    Accuweather showing the same right now too – although I trust them far less.

    1. INDY says:

      Up 2 65 hits now …….INDYY

    2. yooper4021 says:

      How about the CPC 6-10 and 8-14?

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This site is totally unreliable! A ridiculous warn weather bias! You are 100% delusional!

  7. mr. negative says:

    No such thing as a “cool down”, or “cold weather on the way”. Time to banish this quaint nostalgia from our vocabulary – we’re melting, melting, melting…there is no hope.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Time for a trip to Antarctica, and an inspection of the record high amounts of ice.

  8. INDY says:

    Real weather ….Light rain and a cool humpday going on outside nows the time to pack a lunch and get ready 4 a winter punch this week’nd light snow showers Sunday with temps in the 30′s ………INDYY

  9. GunLakeDeb says:

    I’m sure many of you saw this linked from Skywarn on Facebook, but it’s a beautiful tribute to Tim and Paul Samaras and Carl young, done by Nat Geo:
    http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/11/biggest-storm/draper-text

  10. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    63 degrees and mainly sunny in Detroit. Barely 50 and cloudy in GR. Big difference today in Lower Michigan.

    Go Tigers! Not a bad night for a game over here.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Yup, it’s been a nasty/cold/rainy day here. Today was the first day I’ve needed my Carhartt coat during the day since April.

  11. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Here’s a stat for you guys to show how extreme mid October can be…

    The day I was born(10/15/89) there was a high of 83°. Just 4 days later there was a high of 43° with 2.8″ of snow.

  12. INDY says:

    There are no 60′s temps in Michigan right now again Travass hits himself some more!! INDYY

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Sorry Indy… I have to side with Travis on this one… there are quite a few 60′s in SE Michigan as of 2pm (AA, Detroit, Port Huron, etc.).

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Now who’s hitting themselves?

      2. INDY says:

        UP 2 80 HITS NOW!! INDYY

      3. SBPortage002 says:

        Which is barely above average. Not exactly a hot day by any means.

  13. INDY says:

    Is Detroit in Michigan ????? I forgot!!! INDYY

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Go Tigers??!??? =)

  14. INDY says:

    Bills blog is in Grand Rapids Michigan that’s a weather fact!! INDYY

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on INDY! Travis is delusional!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        As are you. Fantastic.

  15. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    The snow word finally hit the the forecast. Muir Michigan Forecast has light snow for Sunday!!!

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Yes, and thanks to the Marquette NWS, we have our first Hazardous Weather Outlook of the season in Michigan that mentions accumulating snow!!

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mqt&product=HWO&issuedby=MQT&glossary=1

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Excellent! Bring on the COLD and SNOW! The more snow the better. GR will be seeing over 100 inches of snow this season! ROCK n ROLL!

  16. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The CPC shows us with below average temperatures the rest of October, except in Flint, MI!

    1. kevin. w says:

      I do think early parts of November will be a little above normal as the trough reloads with a significant storm based on most models (gfs,euro, candian and ensembles). Based on what I’ve seen on the models that the trough reloads develops a storm to our southwest and move northeast with copious amounts of moisture. Someone gets alot of wind/rain and someone gets there winter started with snow/wind/drifting. I’m ready for a very long winter that goes til April this year and I think its going to be ccccold..

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Probably some severe weather in the mix in the southeast quad. of a couple of these storm systems.

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