Pattern Change

October 15th, 2013 at 1:36 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather  Click on the images to enlarge.  These are the latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for October 22-28.   We have a higher chance of cooler and wetter than average weather in Lower Michigan.   This pattern features an upper level ridge in the Western U.S. and a trough in the Eastern U.S.  Troughs generally bring cool and damp weather and ridges are more apt to favor mild and dry weather.   I’ve mentioned before than recurving typhoons in the Western Pacific tend to encourage upper level troughs to form in the Eastern U.S.  Lake Michigan is pretty warm for mid-October.  The buoy 3 miles west of Port Sheldon shows a water temperature of 63 and the south mid-Lake Michigan buoy (40 miles west of Holland) shows a water temperature of 64.  The north mid-lake Michigan buoy (west of North Manitou Island).   The warm water will increase our chances for lake-effect or lake-enhanced rainfall and perhaps increase the chance of lightning with the showers coming thru this afternoon/evening.  With the lake-effect clouds and showers, a prevailing wind off the lake may postpone our first general hard freeze.  The Ford Airport in G.R. has only been down to 38 (and that was way back on Sept. 17 and 23).  Contrast that to Houghton Lake, where they have been below 40 twenty times in Sept./Oct.

WOW!  Check out this VERY close lightning hit that almost got some fishermen!   How to get a book from the mayor.  And…10 of the most interesting high school football stadiums in the U.S.    ADD:  Check out the snow in the Black Hills of South Dakota.

20 Responses to “Pattern Change”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    That’s my take on those forecast maps.

    The line of showers to our West don’t seem to be all that organized anymore. Let’s hope that just fizzles.

  2. INDY says:


    1. kevin. w says:


    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on INDY! Bring on winter!

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    GR finally snapped its streak of days without a colder than average temperature. It ended at 19 days in a row.

    It was warmer over here yesterday, and my streak is still alive. Currently at 20 days and counting.

    Still can’t believe we haven’t had a widespread freeze in Southern Lower yet. Even though last October was also warm, I already had 6 nights at 32 degrees or below by this time last year.

    Go Tigers!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      In both 2011 and 2010 GR did not have its first freeze until October 22nd . With the below average temps forecasted we still have a chance of making it to 32 and or below in the next two weeks. As for a hard freeze (and in my book) that would be a temp of 28° or lower there have been several years where that has not happened until November and that may or may not be the case this year.

      And Go Tigers and lets keep Jim Leyland off the mound. Not sure why he changed pictures so fast in that 8th inning Sunday night.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      This could very well end up being like October 2011 in GR. Warm first half of the month (including a 7-day stretch of 10+ degrees above average) and cool/damp second half of month (including a trace of snow on the 28th that year). End result was 1.5 degrees above average.

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      This month has been awesome!

  4. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Cold and rainy next week at Crystal Mountain. Winter golf gloves and earmuffs for the golf course looks to be in order.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Headed to Green Bay this weekend for Packers vs. Browns at Lambeau Field. Green Bay’s NWS forecast discussion mentions possible rain mixed with snow in northern Wisconsin over the weekend, with some help from Lake Superior. Sounds like primetime for tailgating!!

  5. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    Im looking forward to the lower temperatures. It will be really nice to be able to set in my tree stand without sweating to death. Though the rain really isn’t looking good.

  6. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its now up to 49° here with clouds. And Rain off to our west.

  7. DF (SE Mcih) says:

    Finally some football weather coming this weekend! I’m going to the UM game, go Indiana… kidding =)

  8. DF (SE Mcih) says:

    Story of the lame over hyped season… record 2,913 days since the last US major hurricane landfall.

    800 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013



    1. DF (SE Mcih) says:

      Graph of Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

    2. Cort S. says:

      The dangers of judging a hurricane’s destructive potential only by its maximum wind speed. And I’m not here to argue for or against climate change, because it is a scientific curiosity that we haven’t had a Cat 3-5 landfall in the U.S. in 8 years. Yet if someone wants use that fact to prove a point, they’re not asking enough questions. Scientific discovery always leads to more questions. Do hurricanes have a tendency now to become larger with a weaker but more spread-out wind field? What’s the statistical significance of this 8-year lucky streak that we have going on? Is the Saffir-Simpson Scale an inadequate categorical measuring tool for the sake of public response to danger? Hurricanes are much more multifaceted than just the maximum wind speed in their cores. It’s naive to say that the U.S. has not had a major hurricane disaster since 2005, because I can argue we’ve had at least two, and several more moderate ones. And while we sit here and squabble about the implications of our politically-motivated viewpoints, our science-education literacy and preparedness as a country to handle these disasters is slipping.

      1. DF (SE Mcih) says:

        Cort… I was the one who offered you $100K to make a better prediction than these sock puppets.

        The infinite research grant argument does not work on me. When you are wrong on this scale, year after year, you quit or are fired.

        1. Cort S. says:

          My post had nothing to do with the topic of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting. I only addressed the pitfall of using the SS scale as a metric for what constitutes a significant disaster for the U.S., and cautioned against being so quick to overstate the implications as it relates to the topic of climate.

        2. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Where did I mention climate? The graph was from a article.

        3. Cort S. says:

          I was replying to “record 2,913 days since the last US major hurricane landfall.” And it wasn’t necessarily because of any assertion you made, but just my response to the conclusions the blog seems to adopt when they hear this fact.

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