First SnowflakesOctober 18th, 2013 at 2:20 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
For you weather geeks…when was the last time you saw a 498 thickness knocking on the door of Minnesota in October! The morning run of the European would certainly be cold enough for at least a mix, if not a changeover to all snow next week, with some accum. possible – best bet for that would be Thurs. night. The model has the air temps. in the upper 20s Fri. AM with an 850 mb temp. of -8C. That’s pretty cold for October. That would be cold enough for at least a rain/sleet mix if not an outright changeover to wet snow. With Lake Michigan around 58 degrees by the middle of next week…the additional warmth could keep it all rain near the lake, but some snow would be more likely inland, especially in the slightly higher elevations from Newaygo County northward. The difference in temperature would also likely increase precipitation amounts. Look what happened yesterday with the MAWN station just south of S. Haven reporting 2.29″ of rain. So, this does bear watching. ALSO – (now, keep in mind it’s the GFS, notorious for overdoing cold and snow in the long term) – day 15 of the GFS (again, don’t put much into this) has an 850 mb temp. of -12 for G.R. on Halloween, the 3oth, with a high temperature of 39 and a west wind of 25 mph coming off Lake Michigan. If that’s the case, you might want to think about trick-or-treating as an Arctic Explorer.
ADD: WOW – Just WOW!!! (link is gone…it was a forecast of the NAO and AO thru the end of the year and it was nearly continuous stretch of negative AO and negative NAO with blocking and LOTS of cold and snow for West Michigan). Brazilian meteograms forecasting lots of snow and cold from late October to Christmas (and maybe beyond) for the Great Lakes. Also, wildfires burning in Australia and 33″ of rain in 24-hours.
We’re seeing some sunshine at the moment (noon). At 11 am the temperature was 60 in Muskegon and around 49 along US 131. The warmer lake is having an effect. There are heavy cumulus to the west of me toward the lake and certainly the possibility of instability showers courtesy of an upper level disturbance combined with the lake-warming. Here’s current conditions and a satellite loop. Clouds will overspread the area again during the early-mid afternoon.
Look at the forecast for Ironwood…look at how many time periods have SNOW in the forecast!