Chance of Showers

October 20th, 2013 at 4:17 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Monday PM -  Jim Leyland retiring as Detroit Tigers Manager.  Still a few sprinkles, mainly east of a line from Battle Creek to Lansing.  With quite cool (for this time of year) air coming over Lake Michigan, expect the clouds to hold and a few lake-effect showers (mixed sleet) will likely develop.  We had a couple flashes of lightning around Muskegon/Grand Haven with the showers overnight. -  With this pattern, there is always the chance of a random waterspout on Lake Michigan.  Cold air coming over relatively warm water produces bigger waves than warm air coming over cold water…so it’s best to stay off the breakwaters most of the time when we have a pattern like this.  The models have temperatures in  the 40s by late today and we may not see 50 the rest of the week!  The European has G.R. getting a little below freezing early Weds., Weds. night, Thurs. night and Fri. night.  850mb temps (about 5,000 feet above ground) go to -4C by Monday evening and stay between -4C and -7C until next Saturday.  The model is probably not catching the warmth of Lake Michigan (at 60F), but the contrast from the water to less than a mile above will be very significant.  There is the potential for some significant sleet and even snow with a pattern like this and even (if ground temps. reach the upper 20s and it can snow hard for awhile) slippery roads.   Stay up with the latest forecasts this week, we’re definitely in for some interesting late fall/early winter weather this week.   Check out the links below:

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

40 Responses to “Chance of Showers”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>>>>>BREAKING NEWS>>>>> This just into the news room – West Michigan will be having a record breaking snowfall this winter! The long range RDBL models show the first major snowstorm of the season to hit GR the week of December 9th! Get ready!

  2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    With some clearing I had a low of 35° here. Now that the sun is up the temp is up to 38° here.
    Here is yet another time when West Michigan reported snow in October….

    10/20/1992One to three inches of snow blankets southwest Lower Michigan at the culmination of three days of wintry weather with lows around 30 degrees and highs in the lower 40s.

    BTW the winter of 1992/93 was just a little colder then average with a little less then average snowfall.
    SlimJim

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I am adding this from my comment’s in the post below…….

    Generally when a weather pattern sets up we stay in that pattern from 30 to up to 60 days. So will we have a cold, snowy winter? Well I still think that is hard to say for sure. Looking back at last fall September, October and November were almost “average” temp wise. And thanks to a much milder then average December and January last winter ended up being above average temp wise and for the most part near to above average snow fall wise.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/climate/2012_2013_Winter_Climate_Summary.pdf

    Right now we will have to see where the storm track sets up and then see how the next 6 months play out. One thing for sure come April we will know for sure, But for now keep track of the long range guesses and see witch ones play out. As I feel we have a long way to go before we can “forecast” a whole seasons weather in advance.
    SlimJim

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    It is kind of weird to have snow this early. How about one more week of fall?? The leaves still have to change and fall off the trees, which means that if it snows, we could see some major tree-toppling problems.

  5. INDY says:

    Travass says above what??? INDYY

  6. Austin says:

    Aweeeeeee Twavise is getting sad I think!! BRING ON THE SNOWWWWWWWW!!!!! :) Sounds like this is going to be a fun week weather wise! Thanks for all your hard work Bill!! YOU ROCK Sir!!! :)

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      I’m always amazed by the number of sycophants this blog attracts.

      1. Austin says:

        I’m always amazed by the fools it attracts!

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Kind of the point I was making.

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      And another pathetic stooge speaks.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Austin seems almost as intelligent as Dan.

        1. Jack says:

          Lol… Big Old Bottle of KWELL !! Should Get Rid Of Big Dummy BC!! Lol…. ;-)

  7. big Daddy BC says:

    According to the Almanac, the mean temp for GR today is 48.8, but if you go back to 1960 this same day, the mean temp is 45.3 degrees F. It also says the avg. low went from 41 to 48 degrees F. So when the means increase, doesn’t that mean the climate is changing?

    http://www.almanac.com

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Whatever.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The climate IS changing. It has never stayed the same, so why would it now?

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I know when I think hard hitting scientific research and information, I think Farmer’s Almanac.

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          You was think that, Mark? LOL Me too!

          Here’s something from NOAA if the Farmer’s Almanac isn’t up to your scientific standard. LOL

          “The average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces during August 2013 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2005 as the fourth highest for August since records began in 1880. This marks the fourth consecutive month (since May 2013) that the monthly global temperature has ranked among the top six warmest for its respective month. ”

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201308.gif

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          I rank NOAA just a half step ahead of the Almanac. No sale.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures have been flat since 2001: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade….” – James Hansen et al.

          From Dr. Judith Curry’s blog: http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/22/hiding-the-decline/

          The climate models you profiteers have concocted are failing big time: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg

          CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling and are lower than they were 20 years ago: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg

          We don’t want your job-killing, economy-wrecking massive carbon tax increases. Go tax China!

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      The AVERAGE temperature for the entire decade of the 1930s was one degree WARMER than the AVERAGE temperature of the 2000s.

      Here’s January temperature by decade for Grand Rapids: http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2011/01/January-temperatures-by-decade-part-two1.png The temperature in G.R. is exactly the same as it was 100 years ago.

  8. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Bill how do you think this month will end up temperature wise? As of today we are 4.9 deg above normal. I think it gets down to 1 to 1.5 above normal?

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        It’s suppose to be below normal for the rest of the month but not to the extreme above normal temps for the first half of the month. So I think we end up above normal.

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          GR is now at +4.5° for October the average high is now 59° and the average low is now 41° and they drop to 55° and 38° by the end of the month. So it looks like we may end up either very near average of maybe below average depending on how cold it really gets.
          SlimJim

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      We’re 4.6 deg. above average in G.R. for the first 20 days of October. To go down one degree, we need to eat up 31 deg. below avg. in 3 days…so, 4.6 deg. is a LOT to overcome, but we’ll chop most of that down by 11/1. November looks cool, especially if we can establish a snow cover that sticks around for more than a few days. There could be a little tracking snow during the last 2 weeks of Nov. for firearm deer season.

  9. +7.7 Here but going down from the +12.2

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR will end up with below average temperatures for the month of October! Keep it coming!

  11. Hazardous Weather Outlook mainly along a line from Holland to Alma. Small hail and gusty winds to 40mph in some more intense cells.

  12. michael g (SE GR) says:

    If it was 20* colder and a month later, I’d be bumming about all that precip falling just to our northwest.

  13. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Man, has to be a water spout out from Muskegon with that hook on the radar last 2 frames?

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Don’t know if this link will work directly, but if you click on storm relative loop you’ll get there, definitely rotation..

      http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=GRR&loop=yes

  14. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Sure does look like it, probably with some decent hail too.

  15. Matt(Grand Haven) says:

    Best storm we have had all year. Strong winds, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightening! Awesome

  16. Deb says:

    Bill,
    What a crazy night we had last night up at our trailer (Mason County) First is started to rain about 8-9pm Then it stops a while later. The we had a huge hail storm. The ground was white from all the hail. Thunder and huge cloud to ground lighting. This went off and on all night til about 2:30am when I went to bed. Crazy night for Mid October up there.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It’s cold aloft and easier to make hail. The warm Lake Michigan waters (relatively warm) helped fuel the lighting and wind.

  17. Dan says:

    I have some thoughts about Jim Leyland’s stepping down as the Tiger’s Manager.
    First, there is no arguing the fact that while he was the manager, the Tigers won more than they lost!
    Second, AL Central Champs three years in a row! Those are impressive stats!
    However, Leyland had the tendency to over manage his club. For example, why not let a starting pitcher go for a little while longer? Tinker the batting line ups when hitters have gone cold more frequently? Why did he like Phil Coke so much? Now, managing in the regular season is one thing. It is entirely something else to manage the game in the playoffs! My opinion, get a manager with post season success in the MLB!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      He did over manage, and didn’t use situational pitchers the way he said he was going to. Fielder going cold in October didn’t help the team much either. There are some big manes out there for the job, but from what I’ve heard today Gibson, and Madden are not in the hunt. Mattingly, Sochia, maybe a couple to watch for. Interestingly enough, an ESPN headline today says “Mattingly uncertain of return”, hmmm.

  18. INDY says:

    It’s cold outside down to 39* out thee YARDofBRICKS should we say winter is here!!!!!!!! INDYY

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