Thurs. PM

October 23rd, 2013 at 3:38 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   For Wednesday night – We continue to have a chance shower…mostly rain but occasionally a little sleet or wet snow will mix in.  The primary band (currently SW Ottawa Co.  to Battle Creek) could see 1-2″ accumulate on the grassy areas by daybreak with the chance that it could snow long enough and hard enough to generate a few slick spots.   Temperatures will reach the low 30s inland, mid-upper 30s at Lake Michigan and only the mid-upper 40s Weds. Thurs.  and Fri.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.   Here’s snow in Gaylord,  near Indianapolis, west of Chicago, in Minnesota,   pic. of typhoon Lekima in the Western Pacific – a Category Five storm.

I looked at the temperature departures from average for Oct. 1-23 for the 37 stations in Michigan at Accu-Weather Premium.  All 37 are warmer than average for these 23 days.  The average of all 37 is 2.98 degrees warmer than average.  The warmest relative to average was Flint at +4.8.  There was quite a gap to the next on the list, +4.2 at Mt. Clements and Adrian.  The closest to average were UM Ann Arbor at +0.6, Manistee at +0.7 and Benton Harbor & Escanaba at +1.1.  G.R. is +3.3, with Holland, Kalamazoo and Jackson at +3.0.   If you factor in my projected temperatures for the rest of the month, you get a monthly average for G.R. of 2.1 above average.   If you factor in +2.1 for Oct., you get a Jan. 1 to Oct. 31 departure of +0.058 deg. F for G.R. – essentially average.  Through today, precipitation for 2013 is 37.36″ or 5.95″ above average.  For October, GRR is at 3.79″ or +1.38″ for the month so far.  The average high/low for today is 58/40.

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

78 Responses to “Thurs. PM”

  1. Brian (Grandville) says:

    First. And thats all I have to say about that.

  2. dylan says:

    Strep throat is really going around!! So many people at my office have it and I have to call the doc tomorrow cause Im pretty sure I have it now. It must be Fall!!!

  3. michael g (SE GR) says:

    October, +8.0* after on the 12th, +3.8* now.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      should have phrased it “through the 12th”.

  4. INDY says:

    IT’s snowing out thee YARDofBRICKS long winter ahead!!!! Stay Tuned..INDYY!!

  5. ryan says:

    That typhoon looks impressive

  6. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Knock one more off the 32° and below list in far West Michigan. Kzoo hit 30° this morning. Holland hit 33°, so close. GR and Muskegon 34°.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Here at my house I had a low of 31° so on the far NW side of GR the frist freeze has arrived!
      slimjim

      1. Jim says:

        Richmond Park area for me, and I had frost on the car for the first time this year.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    The GFS is hinting at some above average temps right around Halloween, which would be nice for the kids. Wet though, we will see.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Hmmm what I said a week ago when I got all that flak. Imagine that.

      So much for Bill’s high temp of 39 on Halloween (per the GFS).

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        With the constant flip flopping it does, there is a high probability it will go back to cold for Halloween.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        No Travis, the reason you get all the flak (from me, at least) is that you’re always the smartest guy in the room. Just re-read your comment above.

      3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Just keeping throwing through poo at the wall. It’s bound to stick sooner or later.

        1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          Haha to funny

        2. INDY says:

          TRAVASS IS A IDIOT!!!!! INDYY!!

      4. Bill Steffen says:

        Travis: It wasn’t “Bill’s high” – it was a GFS forecast and I’ve pointed out many times that the GFS can have a cold bias in the longer-range.

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I had a low of 31° here at my house so the growing season is now over in my area, Looks like the AP stayed above the 32 mark so GR may have to wait for the “official” first freeze. Its now 32° here with clear skies.
    Mow we will have to see when we get our first “hard” freeze (that’s when it gets to 28° or colder)
    SlimJim

  9. bluegill says:

    Three inches of snow on the ground and coming down pretty strong in NE Grand Traverse County. There are a lot of leaves still on the trees and the weight is bending trees and branches. Hopefully not much more snow or branches will start snapping.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Hey a very nice find.
      SlimJim

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Nice.

      First measurable October snowfall since 1997 and earliest snowfall since 1989.

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Global warming is causing all these crazy events!!! Jk very interesting video. One thing I do know is this cool weather is causing the deer to move. Last night was crazy.

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    This is for the blogers who think that this winter being cold and snowy is a slam dunk
    This is from Paul Pastelok who is the long range guesser at Accuwether and the he’s talking about the MET winter forecast for North America.

    MET forecast December through February

    The forecast for the winter is above-normal temperatures in a big area over the Midwest, Canada and the Lakes. I think this is too far west and should be more centered farther east.
    I guess we really have to be careful with the modeling forecasts. I looked at the NMME package as well which shows a lot of warmth on the models heading into the winter season. I will touch on this either Thursday or Friday.
    Posted on Wednesday, October 23, 2013 7:02:43 AM

    I am sure there will be different outlooks from different models as we get closer to winter.
    Will let you know if Paul has any new ideas come Friday
    SlimJim

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Nothing is a slam dunk regarding the long range.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      WGN out of Chicago is also out with an article saying that ENSO conditions that we will see this winter are generally associated with slightly warmer than average temps and slightly below average snowfall.

      http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2013/10/22/tims-weather-world-jury-still-out-on-this-winter/

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        No need to click the link. The article basically says they have no idea what this winter will bring, which is no different than any other winter.

        1. Brian (Grandville) says:

          Exactly, even the CPC medium range models flip flop to no end.

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      Oh – he’s probably right….. I’ve got my lovely Arctic Cat poised by the back door, to spring into action when we get a decent accumulation of snow. But the way my luck runs – it will sit there unused until February again…. grrrr….

  11. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    NWS in northern IN is saying some accumulations possible tonight & tomorrow night with some of the lake effect. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ077&warncounty=MIC021&firewxzone=MIZ077&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UmfPvxBl3k8

  12. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Had our first snowflakes of the year. Some decent sized flakes for awhile. I was surprised being only a couple miles from the lake.

  13. INDY says:

    LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW!! GETTING READY FOR THEM 60′S FRIDAY NOT!! INDYY………

  14. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Rain just went over to snow here. BIG wet flakes falling.

  15. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

    It’s snowing here with some sticking on rail road ties in front of house flower bed. My husband left to play golf. Better him then me.

  16. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    There is a fantastic article about Tim Samaras (a storm chaser who was killed earlier this year) in the November issues of National Geographic.

  17. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We had a burst of snow in this area this morning.

  18. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    ITS SNOWING!!!!!!!

  19. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    NWS in GR now talking about an inch of snow possible in eastern Allegan, Van Buren, and Barry Co. tonight…also up north as well.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I have a new puppy who will be very startled by a white world in the morning, if that happens!

  20. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Heavy graupel here.

  21. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Another frosty morning here. No frozen precip yet.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The frost was so thick this morning I though it snowed a bit, but no.

  22. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We had graupel last night, ice on the cars this morning, and a burst of heavy snow for like five to ten minutes this morning. I would love to see a covering on stuff tomorrow morning!

  23. INDY says:

    Again DF is the only blogger I trust from across the state!!!! He don’t make up heat temps tells us how it is from A2……Another cold day in west Michigan..INDYY

  24. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    It’s snowing here!!!

    1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      HUGE FLAKES!!!

  25. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We have had a few heavy snow showers here. The flakes are huge. I’d say there were some flakes that were 2″ wide. Our deck and grill cover are slushy. Here is a pic of how hard it is snowing.

    http://instagram.com/p/f0ftYtADcp/#

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Me jealous.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Nice!

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Nice! We have had smaller flakes off and on all day…but that’s because we haven’t been in the nice bands like you are. It’s starting to get a bit heavier now.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Good ole west wind off of Lake Michigan. Sounds like I could actually get some accumulation tonight.

  26. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    On Monday night around 11:00 PM, I observed what appeared to be some very fine snowflakes for a 2 mile stretch along Northland Drive in Rockford. Perhaps it may have just been some very light rain, but my first observation was that it was snow. There was also a heavy shower of graupel/ice/hail that covered the table on my deck around 3AM Sunday morning.

    Since then, I haven’t seen any frozen precipitation of any sort, so I’m admittedly getting jealous. It is actually quite sunny at this moment in time, and the day has been dry thus far. We did get down to 31 degrees overnight, though, so it was my first freeze this year.

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      **Actually, 30.2 degrees to be exact, so it should say 30.

  27. Brian (Grandville) says:

    Drove through heavy snow/ sleet showers up by Empire earlier today, areas of snow covered and very slippery roads too.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      None of that fun stuff here, but as I was driving home I had a rain/snow shower mix for a bit.

  28. yooper4021 says:

    Scanning through the 3pm weather observations, many Northern and Western Michigan temps stuck in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s….and a few with snow showers/flurries. Interested to hear the snowfall reports come tomorrow morning.

  29. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    A few flakes here (not referring to the blog). Not much, but it is snow. Woohoo!

  30. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    359 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

    …SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT…

    SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INLAND FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN
    SHORELINE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
    FALLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.

    SOME LOCALIZED ONE OR TWO INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD EVEN OCCUR
    SOUTH OF GRAND RAPIDS INCLUDING WAYLAND… PLAINWELL…
    HASTINGS… KALAMAZOO AND BATTLE CREEK. LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH
    OF U.S. ROUTE 10 INCLUDING TUSTIN AND LEOTA MAY ALSO SEE AN INCH
    OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

    THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE THE FIRST SLIPPERY ONE OF THE
    SEASON FOR SOME AREAS. BLACK ICE COULD CATCH MOTORISTS OFF GUARD AND
    LEAD TO A FEW SLIDE OFFS AND ACCIDENTS.

    $$

    MEADE

    Like Phil Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues, “Let’s be careful out there.”

  31. Hit a whiteout in Southeastern Ottawa County. Car was covered with snow and so was the grass for a while!!!

  32. GunLakeDeb says:

    The fields were white as we drove home from a meeting around 7:30 pm!! The puppy thinks snow is delicious….lol!

  33. Looks like overnight tonight the heaviest snow will Be Ottawa, Southwest Kent, Allegan and Van Buren County

  34. Mert says:

    Bill: My Great-aunt Jennie who lived north of Greenville wrote this in her diary 100 years ago today–”HAD OUR FIRST SNOW STORM SNOWED ALL LAST NIGHT CLEANED PANTRY AND FRED HUSKED CORN THIS AFTERNOON”

    Can you tell me how much snow fell? She mentioned in yesterday’s entry of 100 years ago that it started snowing at 3pm.

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Couldn’t find anything from Oct. 23, 1913…but just a couple weeks later, this historic storm hit Michigan.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Storm_of_1913

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Wow, that was quite a storm. Nice wiki article.

  35. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    About 1/2 inch of wet snow mainly on colder surfaces.

  36. Katie in Kentwood says:

    nothing at all here in Walker!! I want some snow…

  37. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

    snowing pretty good here.

  38. Jack says:

    Lots of ” BLUE” on Radar !!! Nothing Happening Here N.E. G.R…….. Stay CUED!!

  39. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Nothing here and I couldn’t be happier. Although radar indicates it’s coming down heavy just a few miles from here. Good. Stay there.

    HURRY, APRIL!

    1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      Nice pic!

  40. kevin. w says:

    The models are all over the place for next weeks weather around halloween. Some are very wet/windy and some are with a little rain but for 4 days.

  41. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Burst of heavy snow with huge flakes….a quick inch of snow on the ground. Trees are being weighed down quite a bit due to the wet nature of the snow.

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Radar seems to be doing a poor job of differentiating between what is rain & what is snow this morning. Looks to be all rain lakeshore areas, but I guess not.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I am about two miles from the lake, it was all snow. Roads got slick..saw one person slide off the road on the way in to work. Now it looks like a mix…but I am about a half mile from the lake right now.

  42. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Yeah, I’m getting some light snow showers: grass, plants, trees are all covered! Not sticking to the roads THANKFULLY! Kinda nice to see the first snowfall. When I step outside I can hear the white noise I only hear in winter as well. (Due to the fact that no summer animal life is making any noise). Ahh… Season changes. Arent they wonderful?

    1. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

      I’m 4 miles from the lake. Was up at 5am with the dogs. There was a good inch then on the ground. Now there is about 2″ and it is still snowing. I know what you mean about the “white noise”. To quote Game of Thrones, “winter is coming”.

  43. Dan says:

    hate the new website, not easy to find hourly forecast, can’t change locations and stil currents for the area north of GR, from sparta to newaygo to cedar spring.
    Driving me to weather.com

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