Wet Halloween

October 28th, 2013 at 3:46 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

umbrella nbc    The overnight European model predicts a total of 2.09″ for G.R. from Weds. evening thru Thurs. evening.  The GFS has 1.19″ from Weds. thru Thursday evening.  It looks breezy with temps. reaching the low 60s ahead of the cold front.  At least we won’t see the storm that NW Europe is having…gusts to 59 mph in London, England – many flights, trains cancelled – many trees down in S. England.  The peak gust was 99 mph at Needles, Old Battery, Isle of Wright with 81 mph at Portland.  The English Channel Buoy is showing 16 foot waves.  Here’s a tree down on a London bus.  More London wind damage.  Farther south, a nice pic. of Mt. Etna erupting Friday in ItalyVideo of a waterspout off Houston.  Here’s SPC thunderstorm outlooks for the next 5 daysBoating season not quite over yet.

From the Storm Prediction Center:  “DAY 4/THURSDAY…ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN…A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

A strong temperature contrast will fuel the mid-week storm.  High temperatures Monday included just 20 at Cut Bank MT and 21 at Calgary, Canada and Great Falls MT, 28 at Dickinson and Minot ND, Rapid City SD and Douglas WY.  Denver struggled to only 37, while Garden City Kansas about 300 miles ESE reached 73.   The high was 36 in Duluth and 37 in S. Ste. Marie.

52 Responses to “Wet Halloween”

  1. millekat says:

    All I can say is “Boo!” Pun clearly intended. :-)

  2. kevin. w says:

    Stormy this week and another one next week. Models show alot of variability the week of the 6th from a snowstorm to heavy rains/thunderstorms. Looks like November is going to get off to an unsettled start. Looking down the road after about the 12th I can honestly say that there is absolutely nothing that sticks out and says very cold/mild-snow/rain. There are just no signals out there BUT it is getting very cold in the Yukon/Siberia so it will be a matter of time before we do get cold/snow, we do live in Michigan after all.

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    It will be hard to enjoy the one nice day in the pouring rain, before it goes right back to well below normal. Oh well.

    Detroit is running only +1.0° for October, the cold spot of Michigan this month.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      +2.1* month to date in GR, and still dropping like a rock!

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    It was actually a nice Sunday! Mid 50′s and sunny. I played 18 holes and mountain biked. Have to take advantage of any nice days this time of year.

    Looks milder this week too. Halloween looks to be +10 degrees above average. No big cool downs in the models right now. In fact, CPC says above average temps are a possibility in the 8-14 day forecast:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    Still +3.4 for October here. +2.1 in GR.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1.8 Kalamazoo
      +1.6 Lansing
      +1.5 Jackson
      +0.8 Holland

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Hmmm you must have somehow conveniently forgot…

        +2.7 Muskegon
        +2.6 Saginaw
        +2.3 Battle Creek
        +3.1 Traverse City
        +2.2 Houghton Lake

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          -0.6 Indianapolis
          -1.8 Spokane
          -1.9 Phoenix
          -2.8 Denver
          -4.5 Rapid City

          Continental U.S. Mean Temperatures Anomaly (1981-2010 normals) -0.867C (satellite IR – NASA)

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Taking into consideration too though is the fact that it’s only a 33% chance of warmer than average weather for that time period. Also that map averages high & low temps I believe. With a wetter, stormier than normal period expected then from what the models seem to be pointing at, we could reasonably be seeing low temps holding above average, while the highs during the daytime remain somewhat below average. The 6-10 day is cooler than average too for us. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    3. yooper4021 says:

      Marquette – only 1 day in the last 15 above average, and 9 consecutive days with at least a trace of snow reported. Still 1.6 degrees above average for the month, even with the recent cool stretch.

    4. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      Holland 11 straight days below average Travis!!!

    5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      The entire winter nut crew is in this morning I see! ha

      Well, except for Rocky…

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Actually Travis I’m a Realists. Sorry for the confusion!!! Just like to get people like you going.

  5. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Well, at least its not gonna be around 40 or so. Nothing worse than temps just enough above freezing for it to rain instead of snow.

  6. INDY says:

    13th day in a roll below the norm in West Michigan can’t ever remember it being so cold and lots of snow before Hallowweenee We have lots of leafs still on our trees out thee YARDofBRICKS mother nature is screwed up on how cold it has been this time of year !!!!!!! Winter is going to be a bear pack a lunch now !!!!!!!!!!INDYYYY

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      10/12/2006

      Up to 8 inches of snow in southwest Lower Michigan

      10/18/1972

      4.6 inches of snow at Muskegon

      10/19/1989

      4 to 5 inches of snowfall across Lower Michigan

      10/27/1967

      8.4 inches at Grand Rapids

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      In 2006 only two of the last 21 days of the month were above average. So far this October GR has had 10 days in a row of below or average days now. The average time so far this October is now at 53.4° in 2006 for the month it was 47.1°. With 4 days yet to go and the end of the month looking to be on the mild side I would say that 2006 was a colder October then this one.
      SlimJim

  7. Dan says:

    So does it look like a complete wash out for Halloween and Halloween night?
    How about this coming weekend? Do we get sharply colder for Saturday and Sunday once the front goes through?

    1. Brad says:

      Do you have the ability to read the forecast? Cripes.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        It’s Dan…

      2. Dan says:

        Did it ever occur to you that I was asking for more information than just the forecast? No? I thought not!
        Is your moss study time being reduced?
        It is so great to see that I garner a good bit of your attention Brad!!
        I see Jordan comes a long right after you. Do you suppose if you asked Jordan to roll over and lay down, he could do it?
        Thanks for the tremendous compliments!!!!

  8. INDY says:

    IN BILL WE TRUST!!!! GOING OUTSIDE TO RAKE LEAFS,BURN A FAT ONE!!! INDYY..

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

      1. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        Trust in Bill, outside to rake, or burn a fat one?

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          +3?

  9. dereks says:

    Hey Travis, whats your agenda with all the above average temperature posts? You don’t think just because the south east corner of the state of Michigan is above average some what that it has to do with CO2 emmisions? If so, what do you do in your life to limit what you emit?

  10. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    ..A WET AND POTENTIALLY STORMY HALLOWEEN CONTINUES TO HAUNT THE
    FORECAST.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Unless you are going as a scuba diver, deadliest catch crabber, or sea creature.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      ‘High Five’

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I sure hope so. On the other hand, those aren’t usually very accurate.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Time will tell but don’t be too surprised if November dose start out on the above average side.
        Slimjim

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      OH NO!!! A WARM NOVEMBER!!!

      OR, at least a 40% chance of above normal temps for 23% of the month. I’m terrified.

    4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While we will have to see how ever thing plays out but it looks like the first half of November could be on the above average temp wise. I look on the bright side first of all I do not like cold temps (I am sure even with above average temps it still will be cold) and second we can save a little on the heat bill.
      SlimJim

    5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This will be the lull before the storm! WINTER, COLD and SNOW is on the way. ROCK n ROLL will never die!

  11. INDY says:

    A warm Novi Don’t think so wait till about the 13th -15th time frame heavy lk snows with below temps a white Turkey it will be!!! 117 inches of snow coming …..From out in thee YARDof BRICKS with a fat boy!!!!!!!! INDYY

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on INDY! Winter and SNOW rules!

      1. INDY says:

        Cant wait to RACK STACK and TARCK winter storms with u Rocky!! INDYY

        1. kevin. w says:

          I’m ready to wake up to white out and buried out!

  12. I like how people with warm/cold biases use CPC outlooks to enforce their opinion, but then discount it as being inaccurate when the forecast isn’t what they want.

    1. kevin. w says:

      You can have the cpc outlooks. Can’t Plainly Count on. :-| .

    2. kevin. w says:

      your discounted

  13. kevin. w says:

    If you watch the high res euro, gfs and canadian its now starting to pull colder air into these storms after the 5th. I see potential storm with heavy snow around the 10th possibly. Both Euro and gem show another classic storm like this one next week and another the following week. After we get to the 10th I think our snow chances should really start to increase as the Yukon cold comes more into play. I do see quite a stormy pattern shaping up and all it will take is just enough cold air to get snow. ;) :)

    1. INDY says:

      Kevin I am with u seeing a lot cold coming around the 10th that’s all we need with a warm lk Bills blog will be going nuts with BIG snow flakes runts…. Travass will have his 6 sisters telling us how warm it is outside all winter long …Put another log in thee fire now!!! INDYY

      1. kevin. w says:

        Aren’t ya just frickn ready and I’ve had enough heat from 2012 to last me a lifetime. I’m still trying to cool off from that crazy long hot year. Bring the cold, snow, the bricks, wind, ice, etc…etc..yeeeeaaaaaaahhhhhhh

  14. bnoppe(albion) says:

    For the next storm
    HEAVY RAIN 80%
    HIGH WINDS(NON THUNDERSTORM) 60% (greater then 30 mph)
    SEVERE WEATHER (30%)
    TORNADO(1%)

  15. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    11 consecutive days with below average temps, yet still slightly above average for the month.

    Hoping we don’t get poured on for trick or treating.

  16. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Looks to be a good storm coming in this week. You know what they say, thunder in the Fall, no Winter at all!

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      See how that worked out last fall. We had thunder…but plenty of snow.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        We only really had snow in February. Very mild December and January.

  17. Nick says:

    hey bill what do you think is gonna happen, like how severe do you think the storm may be

  18. Wow! very cold overnight lows for some areas overnight. Johannesburg (Otsego County) expecting near record low temperatures tonight for this time of year. They have a bone chilling 16 tonight!

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