Halloween Costumes

October 29th, 2013 at 3:18 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

scuba  As a public service and noting the weather I’m forecasting for Halloween, Bill’s Blog is happy to make the following suggestions for Halloween costume apparel (feel free to make your own suggestions):  #1  Fire Fighter   2)  Scuba Diver   3)  Mary Poppins (you get to carry an umbrella, plus flying from house to house instead of walking would be pretty cool) 4)  Cloud and Rain  5)  Fisherman  6) Or just a Fish   7)  Gene Kelly  8)  Cloud  9)   Raindrop   10) face it – any kid with an umbrella and a smile can be cute!  

All the models are very wet.  The European is the wettest with 2.36″ of rain for G.R. from Weds. night thru Friday.  The GFS plot gives G.R. 1.55″ of rain from Weds. evening thru Thurs. night with winds Thurs. evening at 18 mph (higher gusts).  The NAM (caribou) has 1.56″ for G.R. with temperautres in the upper 50s during trick-or-treat time and winds S-SW at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.    Remember if you’re walking around in the dark – remember to wear something that can be easily seen by motorists and plan on dodging some puddles.  (pic. from NBC Miami).

81 Responses to “Halloween Costumes”

  1. kevin. w says:

    I just took a peek at the models and we have quite the storminess coming. I bet someone will get close to 3 inches of rain with this storm this week. I see the models (still variable) next week have the potential for another storm like this one coming. Looking out past next week after about the 8th some signals (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml) and not just using the MJO but looking out over the pacific/Asia/Japan that there may be a big storm after the 8th with blizzard conditions just to our west and some heavy rains/severe weather. GFS ensemble last few runs have been showing some pretty cold air wrapping into this going from heavy rain/ice to snow. JMA model showing this but more of a split flow but maybe winter’s not to far away.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      We will have to see how this all plays out. As happens many times in late fall into early winter West Michigan may be on the warm side of storm systems so we shall see.
      SlimJim

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      A bunch of cold rain I think. Starting to resemble the slow start to winter of last year.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        haha…Slow Start? It’s not even November yet!

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          GR averages 1″ of snow in October – won’t hit that.

          GR averages 8″ in November – way too early to call, but it likely won’t be the first half of November this year.

          A back-loaded, condensed winter like last year a real possibility.

        2. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I am seeing only 0.5″ for GR in October. With quite a few days of trace snow, GR is only a couple snowflakes away from 0.5″ in reality. The difference between trace an 0.1″ isn’t much.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        It’s freaking October!

      3. michael g (SE GR) says:

        It’s the weather equivalent of coming on here in late April and declaring summer to be a failure.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          +1

    3. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      The models are definitely hinting at a stormier pattern over the next few weeks. I think there probably will be some of these systems that are strong enough to pull some cold air down from Canada & we get our 1st real significant lake effect snow event sometime closer to Thanksgiving.

  2. DF (SE Mich) says:

    If the forecast is correct I will be a sailor, in my full foul weather gear, carrying an umbrella for my kid :) Sailor Mary Poppins?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m thinking “whitewater kayaker” ;-)

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Maps of the GFS and NAM rainfall Bill talks about.

    GFS 60 hour rain by the 1st:
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_075_precip_p60.gif

    NAM 60 hour rain by the 1st:
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_namer_075_precip_p60.gif

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      The GFS has me sorry we put the boat away….LOL!

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    WXYZ’s updated forecast this morning is calling for 67 degrees on Halloween now.

    But hey, that means the GFS Bill alluded to last week and its 39 degree high for Halloween would only be 28 degrees off ;) What a joke those models are.

    Bastardi even put out this gem last week: “I have been looking back through the years and I can not find anything this cold at the end of October until we go back to 1976.” Oooops

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Sometimes they get it wrong, just like sometimes you get it right.

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Good for you.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Detroit is definitely in the warmest spot in Michigan for this storm, we will see.

      Record highs for October 31 in Detroit:
      79 in 1950
      79 in 1933
      74 in 1900

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          A couple years back we sat out in the driveway (shorts and tshirts) with candy while BBQing. It was an awesome Halloween, I can’t remember what year.

        2. yooper4021 says:

          DF, I think you may be thinking of 2008. I was living in Toledo at the time – high temp of 70 on 10/31/08. I remember the shorts and cooler of beer fondly!

        3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Halloween 2008 was warm. I hit 68 degrees. Very similar to how warm it will be this year.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        The top 3 record high temps in GR for Oct 31 are
        79 in 1950
        78 in 1933
        76 in 1979 and other years
        The top wettest Oct 31 in GR are
        1.27 in 1994
        1.10 in 1919
        1.08 in 1912
        SlimJim

    3. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Look what happened in Oct/Nov of 1989… from an early season major winter storm to record warmth in the 70′s then back to the unseasonable cold pattern all within about 2 weeks. http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/weather/blog_post.aspx?id=963350#.Um-6VhBl3k9

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Northern Michigan did get very cold last night where some temps dropped into the upper teens. I don’t have time to check when the last October that happened.
    Looking back it looks like this may be the coldest last half of October here in GR since 2006. As for some of the long range guesses being wrong it just goes to show ever one how little we still know about longer range weather guessing. I am sure that some of the long range guesses we see today will also be wrong. But as of right now to me the first half of November still looks to come in a little above average temp wise, but we shall see. The chance of colder temps now seem to be more like December but by then one would expect to see that. BTW GR will not see a hard freeze this year until some time in November as we missed it last night!
    SlimJim

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Marquette extended their streak yesterday – 10 consecutive days with at least a trace of snow.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Marquette averages 4″ of snow in October. They haven’t gotten that this October.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Close enough. Marquette has had 3.1″ of snow this month.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        Marquette also averages 4 days in October with measurable snowfall (defined as .1 inches or greater). This October – 5 days (through yesterday).

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I drove home from N Higgins Lake State Park yesterday, and hit a fairly heavy snowstorm on I-127. Finally drove out of it near Evart. My car’s thermometer was reading 32 degrees….

  6. INDY says:

    Low 60′s are very common for this time of year !! What u happy about it’s going to rain on Halloween my kids will be mad just like thousands more!!!!Weather facts 14th day below normal never ever remember it being so cold before Halloween think its cold now wait Novi around the 15th snow storm coming!!!! get some wood ready now and stay warm !!!!! INDYY

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I like biscuits!

  7. INDY says:

    DDDD FLOOD WATCHES COMING STAY TUNED DDDD…….INDYY

  8. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    On a side note, I think we can make it humanly possible for the weather to get colder out earlier in the day so these high temps don’t get too warm. Let’s just everybody flip their clocks back 1 hr this weekend…. errrrr wait……

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      What a difference a year makes… Hire Cort!

  9. Cort S. says:

    A Food Handler’s Guide to the Radar Anatomy of a Supercell

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151318082727232

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see that Travis is still delusional and obsessed with global warming! Keep the “global cool down” rolling – COLD and SNOW rules and our first major winter storm will be the week of December 9th and that will be the start of our hard winter. Get Ready!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      I see you’re still obsessed with Travis and still delusional about your global cool down. Thanks for listening. Fantastic.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer = brain dead!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Rocky=Jackass

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Haven’t seen fixxxer on here in quite a while now.

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Some more brilliant commentary from Rodey – aka fixxxer!

        4. INDY says:

          Travass is a IDIOT…..INDYY

        5. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          As are you

    1. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

      +1

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      +2

      1. Jack says:

        Yo….Rocky a Costume FOR U. !!!!! http://www.weirdity.com/images/ebay/mars.jpg. ( Pun Strictly Intended )…LOLOLO…….;-)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rock On!

  11. Cort S. says:

    Here is a fair article discussing this season’s hurricane prediction failure. It includes some reasons why activity was low (and this is not an exhaustive list either: I’ve also heard that Brazil’s drought may have contributed as well).

    http://www.floridatoday.com/usatoday/article/3187621

    Also, keep in mind that not only were government forecasters calling for an active season, but so were forecasters in academic institutions and private companies. So this is a problem with our current scientific state of knowledge. Just like practically every other branch of meteorology, the scientific process of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting has its hits and misses. We have a decent idea of what main factors to look for which would favor active seasons, but predicting them months in advance is tricky business. We diagnose both the hits and misses to learn more every year, and hopefully, slowly, improve our chances of a successful forecast down the road. Did you know that only one human lifetime ago, tornado forecasts and warnings were banned, and we really had no idea how the airflow within a simple thunderstorm worked? We have learned a lot since then, even taken unthinkable strides in meteorology over the time scale of one human lifetime. And we’re not done yet.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      HIRE CORT!!!

      1. Cort S. says:

        They’re too late. I’m doing travel weather in Utah now.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Really?! That’s awesome!! Utah is an incredibly beautiful state!!!

  12. INDY says:

    Travass who ???? ohhhh the one the wants all the rain with a little warm up on Hallowween !!!Yeaaa what a D A …………….INDYY

    1. Jack says:

      Indy Here is a Costume 4 UUUUU……CUE::: screen.yahoo.com/king-tut-000000724.html. Lololo….stay CUEDDDDDD !

  13. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Looks like it’s gonna be a wet Halloween. Like my Grammy used to say, don’t forget your rubbers!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That’s cute Mark (I think) BTW who knows we may be dry slotted on Thursday evening.
      SlimJim

    2. Jerry hoag says:

      My grandma use to say that too!!! But I forgot mine all the time and I ended up with 50 children!!!! LOL.. Not really, but I do have 4 step-daughters and 7 grandkids!!

    3. Skot says:

      Mark IS FIXXXER. Hint: East Side of State??

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Oh gee, thanks a lot.

  14. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    This is from an earlier comment from DF

    DF (SE Mich) says:
    October 29, 2013 at 12:42 pm
    A couple years back we sat out in the driveway (shorts and tshirts) with candy while BBQing. It was an awesome Halloween, I can’t remember what year.

    DF looking back it looks like it could have been a good number of years. Here in GR going back to 1999 we have had more warm Halloweens then cold ones. Here is a list of reported high temps here in GR on October 31.
    1999 65
    2000 65
    2001 67
    2003 68
    2006 62
    2007 62
    2008 65
    And the two coldest high temps

    2002 46
    2012 43

    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Probably 2008. Thanks slim.

  15. INDY says:

    Nice one uncle Jack !!!!I hope u can make it over soon to thee war table last Saturday we tied one on!!!!I see 2 out 6 of travass’s sisters are out and about tonight!!! Maybe it’s time to call up old uncle sparky and get him going!!!!!! INDYYYY

  16. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    My Halloween costume is going to be Bill! Its going to be awesome!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      You’re going to wear Bill?

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      We need a picture!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Indy, Cue didn’t WORK????? Give Uncle JACK & Auntie Irene…A Call…PLZ.. RE: Halloween !!! Stay CUED INDDDDDDYY

      1. Jerry hoag says:

        Wahoooooooooooooooo Jack and INDY!!!

  17. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    I signed up for SkyWarn 2014… :) The date/time was just announced today, I think. I think this will be at least my fifth year participating in SkyWarn.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Excellent work!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Me too! Did we have to present tickets last year??

  18. Jerry hoag says:

    Skywarn 2014,?????? Bill or whomever, Where do I sign up for this???? Bill can you email me the information for this pretty please????? Many thanks Bill, and I will see a lot of you there??? Cort, Jack, INDY????

    1. Cort S. says:

      The National Weather Service does training in the spring. The one for Kent County is usually held in late February. Lately, they have been doing registrations up for the one in Kent County, but if you can’t make it to Kent, you can attend any of the other counties without signing up beforehand. They do not have dates posted on their website for 2014 yet. But here is more information:

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/skywarn/

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        March 6th and GRs is always the best!!!!

  19. W.James says:

    My Halloween costume is going to be Bill! Its going to be awesome! I would say Group costumes and couple costumes are so overdone, but you can never get tired of babies. Still undecided on your Halloween costume? Have a little toddler at home? Here are some great ideas at http://goo.gl/OCddF9

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