Occasional Rain Tonight

October 30th, 2013 at 8:02 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  9:05 pm  – The cold front is to mid-Lake Michigan.  Showers, mostly light, will continue off and on through the night.  See Regional Radar and local W. Michigan radar.  Here’s storm total rainfall for SW Michigan and N. Indiana.  Rainfall through 8 PM:  3.23″ near St. Joseph, 3.09″ Benton Harbor,  2.30″ Kalamaoo, 2.06″ Battle Creek,  S. Bend, 1.44″ Grand Rapids, 1.46″ Lansing, 1.39″ Charlotte, 1.03″ Holland, 0.94″ Muskegon.   Here’s some rainfall totals from SW Michigan, NE Illinois (4.05″ at Woodridge IL up to 7 am) and N. Indiana.  In the heaviest band across N. Indiana and S. Michigan, the models are printing on 2-3″ of rain.   Not a lot of rain yet from Muskegon north. The wettest midnight-to-midnight Halloween for G.R. was 1.27″ in 1994 and for Muskegon 1.28″ in 1919 (my mother was alive on that day).  We’ve got a shot at breaking that.  Roads will be wet and could even be slippery if covered with wet leaves.   The leaves may also clog drains and cause some good-sized puddles.  We’ll stay in the warm air -  low-mid 60s for highs today, then windy and cooler for Thurs. night (gusts to 40 mph possible) with a Gale Warning for Lake Michigan for waves up to 12 feet and a High Wind Watch for SE Michigan. There will be a few spotty light showers Friday and Saturday.  We should see some sun Sunday PM and Monday.  Another wet system will move in with more rain for the midweek next week.  Here’s GRR NWS discussion on this storm system and Halloween weather extremes.

Model update:  The overnight NAM (caribou) gives G.R. a total of 1.38″ of rain thru this evening with Kalamazoo at 2.2″.  The GFS plot has 2.53″ for Grand Rapids and 2.42″ for Kalamazoo.  The European has 2.13″ for Grand Rapids thru Saturday.  It also gives us temps. a little below freezing Sunday AM.

For Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. Here’s WOOD-TV looping Radar. Check out regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning, the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan.

117 Responses to “Occasional Rain Tonight”

  1. Matt (Grand Haven) says:

    Pretty heavy rain here at the current time.

  2. millekat says:

    And we now have heavy rain in NE Grand Rapids….Wow!

  3. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

    Same here!

    1. Jack says:

      Ditto…HERE… More on The WAY !! Stay BOOOOED!!! ;-)

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Did it hit 70 degrees in Flint today? It must be global warming – right?

    1. Jack says:

      Don’t Know about That . But I Do Know They are ” SMOKIN” IN ” BOSTON” To NIGHT!!!!! CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QctBQ5Me1Jc. Turn it UP Boston FANS…. Lol….. Ha,ha…… ;-)

        1. Jack says:

          ” Love that Dirty Water…Oh Boston you are MyHome “. !!! Great Tune….

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      No but it hit 65. 60′s in GR. Another epic fail by you since you said it wouldn’t hit 60 anynore this year. Pathetic. I love it.

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      No more 60′s you said last week?

  5. kevin. w says:

    Like I said were going into a very stormy pattern. Next week systems (euro did great this one) has another strong system and possibly another one the following week. The pacific is reloading and we could have another big storm around deer day. Some longer range models (not the stupid gfs) turn us colder around the 20th with a significant change toward colder and more blocking in the Atlantic. Depending on where the blocking sets up out in the Atlantic will depend on how cold it gets or it may be Europe that gets real cold or it may be us. But some indications that some sort of blocking will set up but the question is where.
    We WILL be in a southwest jet so these storms will be moisture rich all we need to do is tap some cold but right now its just too far to reach, but were not far away. 1-3 inches of rain coming with localized heavier amounts with street corners like swimming pools so watch yourself if your trick or treating or you’ll be the wet monster for your costume. :)

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Good stuff, thanks Kevin.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      So much for the big pattern change and snowy start you said was coming to start November?

      1. yooper4021 says:

        Why are there any other weather forecasters when we have you???

  6. Tyler says:

    Hey Bill Tom Skilling was just talking about the Halloween of 1994. He said it was the wettest Halloween they have had or the Midwest had and we haven’t had a wet Halloween like that one since. He said it was the night the Bears played the Packers and the Pack won 33-6 in a downpour. It was also the night there was a major plane crash in Northwest Indiana when a plane went down to the icing building up on the wings.

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      I remember that night. I lived in IL at the time & it was a very cold rain & strong wind all day. Went out trick or treating that night with my sisters & as temps dropped into the 30′s, the rain changed to snow. Some spots west of Chicago ended up with a few inches of wet snow that night after a few inches of rain during the day.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        In GR the high on Halloween 1994 was 54 and the low was 35 and we had 1.27” of rain.

    2. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

      I could be wrong but I believe that plane crash happened in Roselawn, IN? A forensic pathologist was suppose to speak in one of my psych classes at Purdue University but he was called up to help with the investigation. Like I said, I could be wrong but the timing seems close to then.

    3. yooper4021 says:

      I remember that game well. A Monday Night Football game for the ages. Go Pack!

  7. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – light rain

  8. INDY says:

    Glad travass and his 6 sisters are in bed now he knows how to kill off a good cold blog!!! Bill I hope u make it home safe Uncle jack twist one up it’s Halloween…..Time to twist and shout all night long…..Stay dry INDYY…..

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      At least Travis talks weather instead of spouting off with nonsense about someones sisters.

      1. INDY says:

        GAY!!! INDYY….

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Good for you Undy. Glad you finally came out. Bet you feel much better now.

    2. Jack says:

      And on That ” Note ” a TUNE 4 Theeeee YARDofBRICKS ….INDY, CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9JWukf07c. CRANK IT UP FOLKS… ;-)

  9. kevin. w says:

    Hey Rocky if it was me I would stop wasting my time with travaaaas, you can only deal with psychotic people for so long. Some people no matter how many times you tell them they just don’t get it. Lets just stick to the things we know like…THE WINTER MAN!

  10. INDY says:

    YEAAA thanks travass for a great day my kids love a cool rain on Hallloween!!!! Maybe u should put your foot in your mouth about warm weather in the Fall, warm weather only brings rain in Michigan in October so happy halloweet everybody!!!! Back 2 the 40′s this week’nd!!!! INDYYY

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      One of the stupidest statemnts on this blog even for you.

  11. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Jeez, monsoonal outside.

  12. kevin. w says:

    All I see is stormy on all the models, but snow is very marginal until maybe after deer day. Looking down the road I’m watching how things unfold over in Asia as things might look to change after the 15th depending how the western pacific goes AND the cold dislodges over Europe after there devastating storm. Subtle hints at possible pattern shift toward the 15th + mark kinda like October went is the way I see it now.

  13. kevin. w says:

    Not Europe but Russia, sorry.

  14. kevin. w says:

    Anyone how the crops are coming. Are they able to harvest before these rains coming cause up in the Mt. P area I still see alot of corn/soys still in the fields.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Most of the fields in my area corn was cut weeks ago and most fields are already tilled. Farmers had been working long hours prior to today to beat the rain. They were tilling the field yesterday at 5am behind my house.

    2. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

      Not sure about in this general area but my brother in law farms about 3,000 acres in Northern Indiana and his soybeans are all in. Corn is about half done for him I believe so that would give him another 1,000 acres. Beans slowed him down due to cold mornings and evenings. With weather like that there is a small window on any give day to get them done. The drier the better. Don’t know if that answers your question but that is what I know.

    3. Soybeans 85% done and Corn 35% done in the MAC Breckenridge area. 2.25 million bushels in out of our 6 million bu projection. Yields are near normal in our are but much lower than last years record levels. Now southeast lower is seeing yields through the roof in many areas. Storm total rains here as of 12:25am Friday 1.42 in Breckenridge

  15. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Currently a balmy 62 degrees here at 8am. Average high is only 54.

    Forget the snow shovels, grab an umbrella. Still nothing cold scanning the models. Might be a rainy November. WeatherTrends sends GR back into the mid 50′s around middle November.

    SE Mich now included in the Slight Risk for severe today. We’ll see.

  16. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Does anyone know how to access NOAA’s new Climate Forecast System? Apparently, they now do a 45-day snowfall forecast.

    I could only find an up-to-date forecast for Minneapolis online. Not sure how accurate it is, but it’s showing essentially very little snow for Minneapolis in November – with the best chances being Nov 19-24 right in time for Thanksgiving.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I wouldn’t put much stock in that, esp. here in W. Michigan where much of our snow is lake-effect and quite variable from one county to the next. You’d have to correctly get both storm track and temperature (rain vs. snow) in a November forecast. It’d be like trying to guess which MLB team will win the World Series in 2025. About all you could say is “it won’t be the Cubs”.

  17. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Bill – 1.70″ of rain at my house through 7am this morning, haven’t seen any other totals this high, guess we must have been in the rain train all night!! Looks like a storm total of 3 or more inches is a possibility here.

  18. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    I see that doppler radar has estimated between 1.5 – 2.0 inches of rain already here in southern Berrien since last night. With this train of rain extending all the way back into Missouri & Kansas still, I’d say that we could easily eclipse the 3 inch mark by tonight.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Benton Harbor is close to 3″ already as of 11:30 AM

  19. DF (SE Mich) says:

    November average snowfall for lower Michigan.

    Grand Rapids: 6.8″
    Lansing: 3.4″
    Muskegon: 6.0″
    Flint: 2.5″
    Saginaw: 3.6″
    Detroit: 1.4″

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While GR has recorded snow in most (but not all) Novembers the last time GR recorded over one inch of snow was back in 2008 when 10.00” fell so I guess the case can be made that we are over due for several inches of snow in November be it this year or yet down the road.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Marquette reported a trace of snow yesterday….again. 12 consecutive days. Not much accumulation over the period, but a long stretch even by U.P. standards this time of year.

      Bill, any idea if this is a record (or close to it) for October?

  20. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Happy Halloween. I have a nice warm temp of 60° here this AM with light rain falling. Recorded 0.84” of rain last night. Looking around my area we did lose some leaves last night but still have a lot of leaves on the trees yet. I can not remember having this many leaves on the trees for Halloween I have lived here in the GR area since 1984. Of course before that I lived in the Alpena and Bay City areas and up there the leaves were almost always gone well before mid October. Another note GR will not have a hard freeze (temp at or below 28°) until November this year!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I think GR slipped into the top 3 highest minimum temperatures last night, unless it cools off significantly this evening. GR beat out (for now) the number 3 temp from 1900.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        That is right if GR stays above 57° until after midnight then it would tie that 57° set in 1900.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Looking at the GR NWS forecast graphic, it looks like they expect it to be cooler this evening than this morning. We will see.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Can you remember the record low Halloween in 1988 for GR? I was just old enough to be trick-or-treating down in Kentwood. I don’t remember though, kids are never cold on Halloween ;)

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        I can not seem to place it either and its funny as my youngest would have been 3 that year.

  21. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    well, the temps are around 60 here at the present time. Not bad for Halloween at 9:15 AM! Been raining all night long and still going. Maybe we will get a currently unseen dry slot in time for trick or treating tonight for the kids? (although I don’t think rain will stop kids from getting free candy) At least its rain and not snow! If it were snow this would be a MONSTER of a storm!

  22. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Loving this warm morning. Feels especially warm since it has been below average for almost the past two weeks.

  23. mr. negative says:

    SE GR – 60 degrees feels good this morning. One inch of rain overnight. Happy Halloween -

  24. DF (SE Mich) says:

    High wind watches are up for tonight on the east side. We will see if any other NWS offices around follow suit. Also, storm warnings out on Lake Huron.

  25. dylan says:

    Why are you all so mean to each other on these blogs!? Can’t you all agree to disagree and just respect other peoples beliefs and opinions without turning into childish bullies?? It gets kind of old after awhile. Most of you just seem like GRUMPY OLD MEN!!
    I LOVE rainy days and the leaves are sure starting to get pretty out! I LOVE FALL!! HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Just ignore what you don’t like. Pleading for sanity never works when there isn’t much sanity.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Doesn’t bother me, but it is pretty sad. Check out all the nice things said on the last thread! The winter nuts are cranky.

      1. dylan says:

        global warming nuts get cranky too ;)

        1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          Haha Travis frugal attempt to make a friend denied!!!

  26. Mark (East Lansing) says:


    Just checked out DF’s link again a moment ago. The Arthur Anderson (the last vessel to have visual, radio and radar contact with the Edmund Fitzgerald) is off Alpena en route to Green Bay. Looks like yet another stormy voyage her, but she should be in Lake Michigan before it gets too bad.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Not as many are hiding as I thought but for the most part only the 700ft+ ships are out. More will be in port by tomorrow. It is awesome that the Arther Anderson is still out and about after all these years.

  27. arcturus says:


    Oh well there’s always December. Maybe a snow dusting then.

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      What do you mean? The 12Z GFS has a massive blizzard knocking on our door around the 15th of November. Pretty sure you can count on that one.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Impossible. Travis said the temps will be 45-55 at that time.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        100% impossible – just ask Travass!

      3. Bill Steffen says:

        Arctic Village AK had a high/low of 1/-11, a pretty cold Halloween. The high was 3 above at Barrow. The HUGE recovery in Arctic ice extent continues: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png The Antarctic ice extent is still more than two standard deviations above the historical average: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Exactly… too bad. We may need some snow or cold soon. Too many cranky people on here lately!

      1. arcturus says:

        NWA no doubt has better predictions about weather than most here.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          arturus and Travis make a good pair! Both are delusional, have dreadful attitudes and are global warming freaks!

        2. INDY says:

          Like sister like sister!! INDYY

        3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Just like undy and you but global cooling freaks.

    3. yooper4021 says:

      NWA – 2014 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominee – I guess anyone can predict weather nowadays.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:


      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        RIP Eazy-E.

      3. yooper4021 says:

        Just waiting for Jack to cue up some NWA…

  28. Bill (Richland) says:

    There has been 2.14 inches of rain at my house as of 1:30 PM (it started last evening).

  29. josh says:

    WINTER IS COMING!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!! :) LOVE Winter in Michigan!! Glad we can enjoy the Fall season first though, but then….BRING ON THE SNOW BABYYYYY!!! :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Now you are talking! WINTER, SNOW and COLD rules! It is still Fall but watch out when WINTER hits! Watch out the week of 12-8-13!

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      12z GFS tease Jim S talks about above.

      Probably won’t happen but entertaining to watch.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        You know that would be too far to the SE of west Michigan and it there would not be much snow here at all. Heck that would almost be too far SE for SE Michigan!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Yeah, still a good storm that could shift.

  30. SBPortage002 says:

    Seeing a dry slot from western Indiana through central Illinois heading northeast. Maybe we will be under that for trick or treaters.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, and the dry slot is getting larger as it moves right towards us!

  31. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    As others have mentioned it looks like west Michigan could be dry slotted for tonight! All of you so called snow lovers will have watch and see if today’s storm track it the one for this winter as if it is (and it very well might be) then most of Michigan will be on the warm and rainy side of this winters storms. While its still too early to tell how the winter will play out its also way too early to think it will be cold and snowy as it could very well not be!

    1. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

      bah humbug!!!!!

  32. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    BTW the updated CPC’s guess for November would support a better chance of several snow events in November along with a turn to colder temps. So who knows maybe this winter will be the opposite of last winter? With a cold maybe snow start and maybe a dry and milder end? Or could it be like 1989/90 with a cold and snowy start a mild and dry middle and then a cold and snowy end? It now 61° here with light drizzle.

    Whoops almost forgot to add the updated CPC’s guess



  33. INDY says:

    Call on travass 4 this great day real nice outside!!!……Blizzard comes on the 15th just in time for kill thee deer!!! INDYYY

    1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

      Sure hoping so…

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Blizzard, cold, SNOW, wind – now that sounds like FANTASTIC weather. Bring it on!

  34. Bill (Richland) says:

    Looks like we’re going to get a break in the rain shortly. Rainfall is up to 2.31 inches at my house since last evening.

  35. INDY says:

    Wow a high of 58* only out at thee YARDofBRICKS what mid 60′s today???? I see the IDIOT bird flying over again…….INDYY

    1. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

      CUE: The chicken dance.

      1. Jack says:

        Cluck, Cluck, Just Your LUCK ROB !!! I’ve got a Better CUE than That…. Ozark Mountain DareDevils , CHICKEN TRAIN…. LOL…. CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgAJyiE4U5E. ;-)

  36. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Happy holloweeny from the great white north. Your ol aunty Edna just put her maid costume on!! No kiddies coming this way! I’m getting in my pirates costume and your ol aunty Edna’s coming out to clean the bridge!! Smokey treats and milky ways will rule the love nest tonight! Errrrrrrr!!

  37. arcturus says:

    So how much above old normal average will October end up being? 2 to 3 degrees?

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That all depends on the location you want to pinpoint. Some locations will be above average, some average, and some below average. Bias much.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Looks like October is at +2.1 deg. for Grand Rapids. It may change by midnight…but only a tenth of a degree. That’s using the 1981-2010 climate normals that everyone uses now. The average temperature for G.R. for 1981-2010 is 51.0 degrees.

      So, I looked up the climate normal for October for G.R. for 1931-1960 and Lo and Behold…it’s 53.04 deg. I had to do the math again. I didn’t believe it! It can’t be that it was actually WARMER in the 1930s, 40s and 50s than in the 2000s? REALLY? And a whole 2 DEGREES WARMER! So, using the old average of 1931-1960, G.R. would be only +0.1 degree warmer than average.

      For the cool idea, you win a carcinogen-filled light bulb!

  38. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the “global cool down” coming baby! Winters will be Rockin and Rollin for many years to come! I love it!

  39. INDY says:

    Yeaaa 16th day below normal out thee YARDofBRICKS every time warm air try’s to push in we have lots of rain and cool what they say on HIGH temps for the day!! Falls are always wet and wiled in west Michigan ….Stay warm INDYY

  40. INDY says:


    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Bring it INDY. Travass and his band of delusional global warming freaks are in never never land!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        You would know since you live there jackass.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          More brilliant and profound commentary from the negative fixxxer himself. Get a life fixxxer!

        2. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

          Well Rodey, seeing as how you’re into name calling: Why don’t you shut the h. up, you giant douche!

  41. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Your ol uncle sparkee is handing out green smokey treats for anyone who has the card tonight! Boooo! We grow the natural erb candy corn treats up here in the back woods!

    1. Jack says:

      Sweet LEAF Treats….. YUM & BUZZZZZZZ !! See Ya SOONN UNCLE SPARKS!!! Me + and Yer Nephew INDY are Gonna Make a ROAD TRIP… 2 Yer Neck of Da Woods !! Stay CUEDDD… ;-)

  42. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    The rain is now just a mist – just in time.

  43. Jack says:

    Hey BILL: Nice Halloween TIE !! BOOOOO… Stay Cued ….

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Yup…got that tie at 75% off the regular price a couple of days after Halloween. I do look for sales.

  44. Jack says:

    My Favorite Album for Listening to at a Halloween Party is This Old L.P. Can any one GUESS The Title of This ALBUM. ??? See it HERE, and Let The Guessing Begin !!! O.K. BILL??? http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h101/rudolf55/The%20Rolling%20Stones/GoatsHeadSoup_resize.jpg. ;-) . Stay CUEDD!!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Without even clicking the link, I’m gonna take a wild guess.

      Goats Head Soup?

      1. INDY says:

        Gay!!! INDYY..

  45. GunLakeDeb says:

    Mother Nature smiled on my little neighborhood kiddies and gave us dry skies from6:30 to 7:30 pm! Now it’s misting out…..

  46. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We have certainly gotten a soaking here. Our rain gauge reads 2.98″.

  47. michael g (SE GR) says:

    All in all, wasn’t too bad out for trick or treating. Persistent drizzle with a few shorter periods of rain, light winds and warm temps. People seemed to be rewarding the kids who toughed it out with extra candy. Jake has a mountain of it.

    1. Jack says:

      Yeah, Gotta Love The Candy Man…. On Halloween !! Spin ::: Sammy Davis Jr. !!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRf1Ad_Txsg. ;-) . Lol

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