Severe Risk Thursday NightOctober 30th, 2013 at 4:16 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Thurs. Evening. Meso-discussion for far E. Indiana and most of Ohio. The Storm Prediction Center still has the area south of a line from Hillsdale to Lake St. Clair, generally along and south of I-94, in the Slight Risk Area for a severe storm tonight. There is a Tornado Watch for parts of Indiana and Illinois. There has been one small tornado in S. Illinois and a handful of wind damage reports from SE Missouri into S. Illinois. A couple of small tornadoes occurred in Louisiana this afternoon. It’s a very marginal set-up with the threat of strong winds from storms (or heavy showers) here in S. Michigan. In a situation like this, you usually get little or no lightning. Low-topped showers in an already strong wind field could punch out a severe criteria (58 mph) wind gust…but like I said, a very marginal situation. SPC Discussion here. The Slight Risk area says there is a 15% chance of a severe report within 25 miles of a given point in the outlined area. Again the main threat will be very isolated wind damage. SPC says: “A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING AND RELATED DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE DIMINISHING…” Again, a pretty marginal situation for our area (yeah, I said marginal 3 times…can you tell I’m not excited about severe weather up here in Michigan). However, the overall wind field is strong tonight and gusts to 40 mph are possible. The rain and wind are bringing down a lot of leaves.