Monday Weather Thread

November 4th, 2013 at 3:21 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   A snowstorm is brewing for parts of Wyoming, Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  They could see a narrow strip of 6″ of snowfall.    We’ll have a dry and mild day with temperatures in the low 50s this afternoon.  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. a high of 54 today and 62 on Tuesday.  The GFS is a little cooler at 52/57.  Wednesday is the rain day this week.  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. only 0.39″ from Tues. night into Weds.  The European is at 0.82″ and the GFS is the wettest with G.R. getting 1.46″ of rain from Tues. night into Thursday.  The European has Tuesday as our warmest day in the upper 50s and the coolest at 29 Friday AM.  It still looks try for Saturday AM’s Kalamazoo Holiday Parade.  The Arctic Oscillation stays positive for another 2+ weeks…then it’s forecast to go negative and right after that it turns cold (and maybe snowy).

Cold low temperatures this AM:  3 Mt. Washington NH and W Yellowstone MT, 6 Big Piney WY, 7 Saranac Lake NY, 8 Craig CO, 11 Alturas CA, 18 Bradford PA.  New snow:  7″ Island Park ID, 5″ Yellowstone Park WY and Steamboat Springs CO, 1/2″ Salt Lake City.  Band of significant snow from Wyoming thru Nebraska, SE S. Dakota, SE Minnesota, NW Wisconsin and parts of Upper Michigan.

There was a rare (small) tornado in the Netherlands on SundayStrong typhoon Haiyan is will cause damage and flooding in the Philippines.   The warmest temperature in the U.S. on Sunday was 86 at Imperial and El Centro CA.  Much of the South was cool, with temperatures holding in the 60s in Dallas, Houston, Galveston, New Orleans and Mobile.  3″ of snow fell in 4 hours at Columbia Falls MT.  The Northwest was cool, with highs of 39 at Great Falls MT, 42 in Spokane WA and 44 at Salt Lake City.

Note:  We had just 4 for trick-or-treat at our house.  My sister had 288 (and had to send hubby out for more candy at 8 pm)!

46 Responses to “Monday Weather Thread”

  1. kevin. w says:

    I looked over some of the teleconnections yesterday Bill and some of the models around Thanksgiving want the AO and NAO going more negative. Plus I see a strong high pressure developing over Alaska the next few weeks. It might be a pattern change like the end of October went but have to wait for model data to see how it this unfolds. I still see a pretty stormy month though.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I don’t know what they are worth, but the Meteograms from Metsul sure bring us a cold and snowy pattern for late Nov./Dec. They’ve been consistent on that. The AO and NAO look to be trying to start downward after mid-month.

  2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    That snow in two weeks sounds great, but Joe said that the models may be picking it up a little too fast. However, the chance is there :)

  3. tj says:

    how to find wind direction and wave report on sigte/

  4. tj says:

    need to find wind direction and wave report,

  5. CGDirt (Allendale) says:

    Could this be the start of something???

    ONE CURIOUS FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE VERY POWERFULLY PACIFIC STORM
    THAT DEVELOPED EAST OF JAPAN SUNDAY. IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST JUST
    EAST OF KAMCHATKA BY EARLY TUESDAY BUT DEEPENS TO BELOW 950 MB.
    THAT POWERHOUSE SYSTEM BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER ALASKA IN
    THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THAT IN TURN HELPS SEND AN
    UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH POLE SOUTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE
    WEEK. THAT SENDS SOME TO THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SOUTH TO
    NEAR THE CANADIAN BOARDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS ARCTIC ORIGIN
    SYSTEM CAN DIG A TOUCH MORE WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST POLAR OUTBREAK OF
    THE SEASON AND MAYBE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. ANYWAY
    SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

  6. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Joe B. has been in a slump the last few years. It’s been awhile since we had a snowstorm in early November. We did have a strong snowstorm on Thanksgiving eve of 2004.

  7. INDY says:

    Yeaaa 6-8 inches of snow coming around thee 15th, Turkey Day looks to be very cold with snow on the ground the shoppers will love that!!!! Stay tuned INDYY….

    1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

      INDY although I sure hope you are right as I would love snow for the 15th. I am really starting to doubt it is going to happen. Keep up the positive thoughts…

  8. arcturus says:

    Never would of thought early November would be the best time to see fall colors. With what’s happened it makes sense however.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      What happened???
      SlimJim

      1. arcturus says:

        Above old average warmth and sunshine.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          And with the return to clouds and cooler overall temps. since mid-Oct…the fall color change has sped up. the tree in front of WOOD changed color and dropped all its leaves in about 5 days.

          Looks like Australia’s flipped to cold: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/chilly-november-nights-for-southern-nsw-and-act/25808

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    A few odds and ends on a Cloudy Monday morning. We went to Frankenmuth yesterday for my yearly so call “free birthday” chicken dinner. For some reason I still feel the dinners at the big Chicken restaurants there are way overrated and over priced. Any way on the drive over there it started out sunny here and by the time we got near US 127 it was cloudy. Also there are still a LOT of leaves on the trees in much on lower Michigan. A little less so in the very middle of the state but much more so on the west side and once again in on the east side. From the car thermometer the warmest was 45 (here on the west side) and the coldest coming home last night was 38° in the middle of the state (it was back to 42 here in GR)
    SlimJim

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      How about under priced food for once. I was in family fare yesterday, and noticed the king crab priced at 15.97lb. with a yes card. I asked the guy who was new if that was the right price. He said no it was a mistake, but I have to give them to you for that price. I bought a lb. at a great price. Delicious as always.

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I have mentioned several times that I have noticed that the leaves are falling later this year what I can remember in the past. (it should be noted that I have only lived in the GR area since 1984) and the leaves do fall later here then in either Bay City and Alpena. Anyway here is a web site you can take the info anyway you want to…

    http://www.livescience.com/4715-autumn-colors-late.html

    And the late change is just not here in Michigan.

    http://www.kgw.com/lifestyle/holiday/video/Leaves-falling-later-than-usual-133504068.html

    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The good thing is Fall seems to be dragging on while the leaves take their time to fall off. If we went straight into winter, that would have been a problem.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Well they did have the Northeast and parts of lower Michigan right!
      SlimJim

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Terrible by their standards, they are usually decent. Even I will admit they’ve been relativity good since the last Bomb of April 2013, until now.

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    John Dee’s long range guess for the winter of 2013/14 is now out…first you must read this from him (there is also a link in has long range guess)

    http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/soapbox.htm

    And here is his long range guess for the winter of 2013/14

    http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm

    SlimJim

    1. arcturus says:

      Nice read. His disclaimer aside, he seems to think it’s another repeat of last year with above avg temps ‘through December and most of January, perhaps even into early Feb.’

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Nice read and he is saying this will be nothing like last winter. Bring on the COLD and SNOW! I love it!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Guess reading and comprehending isn’t a strong point of yours. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rodey aka fixxxer = a whining complaining ignorant person! Get a life!

  12. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I am sure that meant people are waiting for stratospheric warming to occur north of us… It could happen any time now. Also, several models are hinting at some favorable atmospheric conditions for snow around late month. But as for now, things are warm (by November standards) and rainy! Not the best weather…

  13. Jack says:

    Not a Bad Day for Nov. 4th !! Bit of a NIP in the AIR , Because of The Breeze ! The JEM Model is Still Showing a Significant Snowfall. For The Last Week of November !! Sooo…STAY CUED…. 4 Sure !! ;-) . Happy Moaning MONDAY ! ;-)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The JEM model ROCKS, however I am sure that it will not be snowing in Flint, MI during this time frame! In fact it will be 70 degrees – just ask Travis!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        And according to you I’m sure the GR area will be getting a snowstorm every other day. Thanks for listening and commenting. I love it. Fantastic.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rodey aka fixxxer = BRAIN DEAD!

  14. Jack says:

    Forecast For The Da Bears & Packers Game ” Monday Night FOOTBALL” Tonight…Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain in the evening. Lows in the lower 40s. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. ;-)

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Winter predictions for GR – Above average snowfall – 107 inches of SNOW and near normal temperatures! ROCK n ROLL baby!

    Winter prediction for Flint, MI 10 inches of SNOW and above average temperatures. In fact it may never get below 30 degrees this entire winter in Flint!

  16. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Chilly day = quiet blog.

    1. INDY says:

      Chilly day means no Travass ……..YAAAA HOOOOO!! INDYY…….

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Awesome comeback by the Colts last night!

        1. Jack says:

          Yup, ” Luck” was on Their Side!!! Lol… ;-)

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Travass is 100% delusional and a global warming FREAK!

        1. Dan says:

          Rodey what a joke you are. You come on to attempt to set the standard on what you judge? Wow! That’s a stretch even for a mental giant like you.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Dan is illiterate.

        3. Dan says:

          Thanks once a again Jordan! Your compliments are overwhelming. Please look that word up. It must really be something when you try to tell others about yourself huh?

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Es también el 100 aniversario del huracán blanco :) http://www.regions.noaa.gov/great-lakes/centennial_anniversary_storm_of_1913/

  17. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    My winter predictions for the GR area…..50 to 75 inches of snow (more near the lake less the more east you go) temps near to somewhat above average or near to somewhat below average. There will be days of rain, days of snow, there will be some days with both rain and snow and some days of freezing rain. There will also be days of no snow and no rain in fact some days may be sunny (not many) the snow that dose fall will melt and then some more snow will fall and then melt again. As for temps there will be days that are warmer then average and there will be days that are below average and there even could be days that ARE average. This will go on all winter long. Also all winter long there will be predictions of major storms that either do not form or go to our NW or to our SE and there could be one or more that do affect us one way or the other. Most of this prediction will be valid the one item that may have to change (up or down) is the snow fall amount. I will make adjustments from time to time as the season plays out.
    SlimJim

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      50 to 75 sounds good to me. Probably be backloaded again like the past several winters. Not much on the ground that doesn’t melt away till late January.

    2. Rad ( Jenison / Hudsonville ) says:

      Sounds about right !

Leave a Reply