Tuesday

November 5th, 2013 at 4:49 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Rain Foot Al Kebless   This is a pic. from Al Kebless.   Click the picture to enlarge.    This picture was taken on October 24, Thursday at 5:15 pm looking  N-NW on Meyers Lake Road and 13 Mile Road in Rockford It looks like a rain foot, though it would have to be from a relatively small shower.  Speaking of rain.  It’s going to rain late Tues. night and Weds…pretty much a 100% chance.  It’ll be the wettest day of the week.  Grand Rapids gets 0.57″ of rain from the NAM (caribou), 0.85″ from the European model and 0.92″ from the GFS.  We get to the upper 50s (60 if lucky) today, 50s Weds. then back to the 40s.  It may be cold enough early Thurs. for a light rain/snow shower, but if you do see a little snow, it’ll melt on contact with the ground.  Pretty cold air out west.  As I write this it’s already -1F at Yellowstone Natl. Park and -10F not too far north of Calgary, Alberta.  Check out the Kelvin-Helmholtz wave cloudsOctober global temperature.

The morning run of the NAM (caribou is in).  It keeps us dry thru this evening…chc. showers after about 1 am…definite rain most of tomorrow (Weds.) with 0.70″ for G.R…near 60 today, mid 40s during the afternoon Thurs. and Fri.  Could be a light lake-effect rain or mix shower Thurs., Thurs. night…nothing that would stick even if you saw some snowflakes.  The GFS model run from this morning’s data gives G.R. 0.79″ of rain starting also around 2 am thru about 2 pm Weds. (for G.R. – rain ends later SE of G.R.)  with a sprinkle or two after 2 pm.  The European gives G.R. 0.71″ of rain, so the models are all in the same ball park.  It gives us cold enough air at 850 mb for a few flakes Thurs./Thurs. night, but the overall airmass is pretty dry by then.   3-6″ snow possible for Minneapolis.  Chilly this AM in New England and out west.  It was -1 in Salmon ID and -2 at Yellowstone N.P.  I see a -8F north of Calgary, Alberta.

81 Responses to “Tuesday”

  1. INDY says:

    Winter storms are coming for west Michigan ….Stay tuned!!!! INDYY

    1. Josh From Zeeland says:

      hey i seem to recall you said it wouldn’t get over 60 for the rest of the year! its gonna hit 60 again today so you seem to be wrong once again.

      1. INDY says:

        GAY!! INDY!!!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Yes we know. This is the third time you have announced you are gay.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Indy is cool because he says gay with an exclamation point.

        3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

          Way to show your maturity level, Indy.

          Are you here to insult and troll, or would you like to participate in the weather conversation with the rest of the adults?

        4. INDY says:

          What’s wrong with being GAY????? That’s what I thought!! INDYY

        5. bodawg says:

          This bigot needs a ban.

        6. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Indy is an overweight drunk.

        7. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          I laugh outloud when i see Indy comment that somthing is GAY. Who cares.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Unless the sun makes an appearance, I don’t think we’ll hit 60.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Almost. 59° in GR today. The low temp is only 50° so far which is pretty warm.

  2. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Pretty mild morning out bringing the kids down to the bus stop for being almost a week into November already. Still have not had a freeze here yet. Don’t remember to many years it hasn’t froze by now.

  3. kevin. w says:

    Don’t see much in the way for snow/storms coming but it still looks stormy all the way through Thanksgiving. The RDB/JMA and Euro super ensemble are starting to show more signs of blocking just after turkey day. It really shows the blocking starting in December with a real strong push of arctic air around the 30th. I’m seeing signs of an MJO shift along with a very strong high over Alaska. The question will be (the high over AK) will it put us in a northwest flow with weak clipper systems or will we stay in a southwest jet, pick up gulf moisture and get some doozie snowstorms. Its going to be the position of the AK high on how the storm track sets up. All the models keep the eastern seaboard mild for the next 3-5 weeks so that tells me we might be in the right sweet spot or it may be just to our west and think will stay in this southwest storm track for the forseeable future. Will see what happens. Leaves sure are hangin tough and thought with this last rainy episode they would all come down.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Good stuff, Kevin.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      My birthday is tomorrow and I have never seen this many leaves on the trees on my birthday in all of my live and that includes the two years I lived in Lexington, KY…what dose this mean?? I don’t know. My thinking now is that this may be a mild winter but time will tell.
      SlimJim

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Not certain but I recall reading somewhere that lots of sun and moisture can delay the turning of leaves. Seems we had lots of both in September and October.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        First off – Happy pre-Birthday (in case I don’t get to the blog tomorrow) – and second: I think after last year’s drought, all the plants/trees this year simply went crazy with growth and are hanging on for all their worth?? There’s another 1.5 acre behind our business, that’s just basically “wild”. While I was aware that there were fruit and olive trees back there – THIS year, they were all loaded with fruit! I had never seen that before.

        1. Barb says:

          The leaves on the maples in our neighborhood have big, dry brown spots and the color there is on the trees is muted. My tree expert says the trees in my neighborhood are suffering from dry weather this summer.

  4. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    If we do get into a northwest flow pattern by Dec, it would set the stage for the lake effect machine to turn on. By early Dec, our average highs are in the 30′s, so even average temps & certainly a little below average would mean snow for us.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That would be a good guess.
      SlimJim

  5. DF (SE Mich) says:

    It felt really warm out this morning after the 20′s the last few nights.

    The GFS is looking warm out in the run. I wonder if that means it will be opposite? :)

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      As of right now my thinking is that we may start out winter on the mild side but as always that can change real fast.
      SlimJim

  6. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I put my winter 2013/14 prediction up late in the Bill’s last post so I will repost it several times in the next few weeks along with any needed updates…why waste a good forecast LOL

    My winter predictions for the GR area…..50 to 75 inches of snow (more near the lake less the more east you go) temps near to somewhat above average or near to somewhat below average. There will be days of rain, days of snow, there will be some days with both rain and snow and some days of freezing rain. There will also be days of no snow and no rain in fact some days may be sunny (not many) the snow that dose fall will melt and then some more snow will fall and then melt again. As for temps there will be days that are warmer then average and there will be days that are below average and there even could be days that ARE average. This will go on all winter long. Also all winter long there will be predictions of major storms that either do not form or go to our NW or to our SE and there could be one or more that do affect us one way or the other. Most of this prediction will be valid the one item that may have to change (up or down) is the snow fall amount. I will make adjustments from time to time as the season plays out.
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Sounds about right. Another weak to almost normal winter snowfall. Backloaded just like last year.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Let’s shoot for the 50-75 inches from mid-December through the holidays, and then melt it all away by mid-January just in time for an early spring. Wishful thinking.

    3. bobcat says:

      Talk about playing it safe! :)

  7. Sandi says:

    Woo hoo 60 and sunny out there! Just put down winter fertilizer just in time for rain tomorrow. Get out and enjoy it people…not many days like this left.

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Welcome to November 5th. Plenty of leaves still on trees here. Even some green. Never seen it this late.

    Models now showing another push towards 60 degrees around middle November. CPC grabbing it too:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

      1. arcturus says:

        Interesting summation – ‘most scientists believe long term global warming hasn’t gone away. Any global cooling caused by this natural phenomenon would ultimately be temporary, and if projections are correct, the long term warming caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would eventually swamp this solar-driven cooling.’

        Thanks for the link to the article.

        1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

          Carbon dioxide levels where at a all time low, look at levels from thousands of year ago. They where a lot higher!!!

          http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page4.php

        2. yooper4021 says:

          I’d call that an editorial comment by the author who obviously disagreed with the scientist’s viewpoint.

        3. Robert(Plainwell) says:

          Hey Arcturus here is a link to show what may happen with low solar activity.

          http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          No warming in over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif If global warming hasn’t gone away, it’s certainly fast asleep.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Not unprecedented.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Like I said to Slim Jim – I think last year’s drought affected the trees this year. I have a Crimson King maple in my yard, that is just now beginning to turn red….

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        A major factor in the fall color change is the shortening amount of daylight. We had a whopping 67% sunshine in the first 2 weeks of October…so the leaves didn’t flip the “off switch”.

    3. Robert(Plainwell) says:

      The pause in global warming is now 17 years how long until AGW is dead?

      RSS for October has just come out and the value was 0.207. As a result, RSS has now reached the 204 month or 17 year mark. The slope over the last 17 years is -0.000122111 per year.

  9. INDY says:

    Global Warming No Such Thing!!! Just A Re Vote For Al Gore That Never Made It!! INDYY……..

    1. Jack says:

      Hey INDY.. Give Uncle Jack, a CALLL !! Staying Cued.. Global warming = Al Gore Smoking Crack !!!! Lol… ;-)

  10. INDY says:

    Ohhhhhh Bill Just Had A Light Shower Over thee YARDofBRICKS Smells Like Spring Outside!!! INDYY…..

  11. kevin. w says:

    Interesting flip around between the GFS and the Euro in the east between warm/cold rain/snowstorm on the 12z run. Something going to change or just some fluke with the models??????

  12. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    According to preliminary data released this afternoon, global October temperatures were about +0.4 degrees Fahrenheit above 30-year averages.

    This makes October the 344th consecutive month with above average temperatures.

    Australia continues to bake with most of the country experiencing its hottest August to October period ever recorded:

    https://twitter.com/Tim_Beshara/status/397524384883023872/photo/1

    Meanwhile, temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska continue to run +5-8 degrees above average.

    I was unable to find any widespread record cold Octobers around the globe.

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      Just depends what you type into Google Travis?

      1. arcturus says:

        Travis gets under Rocky’s skin, that’s abundantly clear. Nice to know whenever he spews more nonsense it’s a sure sign Travis got to him again. Of course we know this.

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Nonsense breeds nonsense

    2. Robert(Plainwell) says:

      RSS for October has just come out and the value was 0.207. As a result, RSS has now reached the 204 month or 17 year mark. The slope over the last 17 years is -0.000122111 per year.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.8/plot/rss/from:1996.8/trend

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      *yawn*

      1. yooper4021 says:

        I’ll second that

  13. Jack says:

    Ho,Ho, Ho, Let it Rain, Let it Rain !!, No Snow…YET…stay Cued !!! ;-)

  14. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Chance of snow in the next couple of days: It won’t stick (and its Michigan, so not too surprising!) but its better than nothing http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=152&map.y=164&site=grr&zmx=1&zmy=1#.Unl6bZEVyns

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Travis has a disease – Global warming delusional sickness! Get a grip Travis and get ready for the Little Ice Age and a lot of COLD and SNOW!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Rocky also has a disease, a snow, cold and global cooling disease. Get real. Get ready for an average winter. I love it. Fantastic and thanks for listening.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Get a life fixxxer! You are a sorry excuse of a human being!

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          fixxxer isn’t human. He’s reptilian.

      2. kevin. w says:

        Your a nut to keep following him all the time who really cares. You do know that its getting cold and going to snow right or are you Travaaassss brother.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          He is far worse than even Travis! kevin keep the good news coming relating the JMA and the RDB models. Keep up the good work!

        2. Barb says:

          Can we keep this to a semi-serious weather blog without the personal jabs and extraneous worthless information?

  16. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Remember we will be Rocking and Rolling the week of 12-8-13. Our first major SNOW STORM will be hitting hard!

    1. kevin. w says:

      Ya I’m looking at just after Thanksgiving and the first week of Dec. as some of the models are now honing in on a changeable pattern then.

    2. Jack says:

      *********{ JEM Model UPDATE} ………. Last week of November still ON TRACK for First ACCUMULATING -::-::-:SNOW!!! Stay CUED….4 Further UPDATES.. & CUES*****************. ;-) . $$$$$$$$$$. ;-)

    3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      That’s the week of my birthday, so it’s fine with me. It would just be nice to know where you got that information, or was it just a fun random guess? Oh wait, you probably used the RBD model! Hopefully it’s accurate…

      1. Jack says:

        Good Happy B-Day Early. You should get a Present from The Sky, as in first accumulating Snow. Yes, All Models Involve SOME Guess Work. However I’m Sticking with My JEM Model onThis One. , Will we Get Lots of Snow or Just enough To Accumulate ?? Stay Cued, for More updates RE::: JEM Model…. Fine CUEING or Tuneing !! Lol..

  17. Jack says:

    JUST a TUESDAY Thread CUE, The STONES……(((((LIVE))))))))) ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYx_NfnoHL8. ;-)

  18. Barb says:

    It’s not global warming–it’s climate change with more swings in the weather patterns, which we are definitely seeing.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The nomenclature was “adjusted” from “global warming” to “climate change” because virtually any kind of weather could be included in the dynamic and because global temperatures stopped warming: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

      We are not seeing “more swings in the weather patterns” than we did in the 1930s. The weather overall has been very quiet in 2013.

  19. mr. negative says:

    Heavy rain stays West while heading North?

  20. Looking at the long range, And on November 13 and November 14 they show snow showers. Not much that would stick with a temperature of 43 in that time period but there would be accumulation at night with a low of 32. We shall see!!!

  21. Jack says:

    JEM Model…. Quote HERE:: 28th-30th. Heavy lake-effect snows coincide with Thanksgiving–half a foot or more in the traditional snowbelts. Stay CUED…

  22. Jack says:

    Hey BILL: Some Folks or Bloggers on This THREAD Today are ” Wound Up Tight ” ! Sooo CUE. Lonnie Brooks !!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-UUgWZo4dE. Turn it on This Bluesy WED. Morning…. Stay Cued.& ENJOY !!! Thanks BILL!!! :-)

  23. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Only 145 days til April!

  24. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Ding dong,my wind chimes are singing their songs. Wind and rain here. The darn Hickory nuts are still droping on my garage roof. Nuts everywhere this year.

    1. Jack says:

      NUTS.. Bills Blog Included ,! Lol…. Stay Cued, and Ding, Dong Morning To ALL…. ;-)

    2. Jack says:

      Not Much Wind Here ( except for what I’m Breaking) Lol… Kinda Nice to Have The Windows Wide Open and Listen to the Pitter Patter of A Steady Rain. Plus Smell The Rained Soaked Air, on Nov. The 6th 2013 …. Peace, and WET WEDNESDAY Y’all … ;-)

Leave a Reply