Why the Lightning? Possibly 10,000 fatalities

November 8th, 2013 at 7:48 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

haiyan    haiyan track  Click the images to enlarge.  Philippine officials say there could be 10,000 fatalities.  This is so frustrating because we knew the storm was coming and where it would hit.  With all the money governments (and the U.N.) spend, they need to come up with a way to get people out of the way of these storms.  We often have 48-72 hours notice now.  We have to have a better evacuation execution effort.  The Philippines gets more tropical storms than any other place on Earth.  The first is a dramatic satellite view of Haiyan at landfall.  The pink area around the center or eye of the storm are cloud tops colder than -80C degrees.   There was a very interesting burst of cloud-ground lightning in the southeast edge of the eyewall as the storm came on land.  We don’t know for sure what would cause that.  It must have been amazing to be there.  I wonder if you could even hear the thunder at close range amid the roar of the +120 mph winds.  Check out this map of world lightning.  Note that there is much more lightning over land than over the oceans.  Florida has the most lightning per square mile in the U.S.  The interior of the Congo River Valley in Equatorial Africa has the most lightning per square mile in the world.    Satellites have saved many lives.  It’s estimated that a million people fled from the path of Haiyan, which was well forecast 2-3 days out.  The storm moved fairly quickly and that reduced the amount of rain.   The storm has weakened some, but is still a powerful storm, and will bring strong wind and heavy rain as it comes ashore again this weekend in Vietnam (see path map above).   Google has some damage pictures.  Here’s more on what is a typhoon/super typhoon and is the number of tropical storms increasing.   It’s estimated that in the last 1000 years, a total of 10,000 to 20,000 tropical storms and typhoons have hit the Philippine Islands (the most hurricane-prone spot on Earth).

Also, dust devil rips off mirror of police car.

10 Responses to “Why the Lightning? Possibly 10,000 fatalities”

  1. kevin. w says:

    kevin. w says:
    November 8, 2013 at 6:40 pm

    Probably a world record typhoon out in the far western pacific. I personally don’t think ANY of the models are handling that typhoon in there model data very well. I think there is going to be a major trough somewhere either in the central U.S. or the eastern U.S. I also think that none of the teleconnections are worth a crap. So I’m guessing that next week we should have some sort of different outcome on the models with the pattern after 18th. Remember typhoons that recurve in the pacific usually take about ten days to feel the effects in the central/eastern U.S. Now the high res Euro is just now starting to show a trough developing twelve days from now over the great lakes and eastern U.S. The question which is big is that if a low develops on that trough and picks up moisture out of the gulf with cold air with it may produce a significant snow event????? Kinda like how the gfs has a storm but the euro is deeper trough/heavy snow—GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

  2. kevin. w says:

    Remember I hate the gfs model its garbage and should be thrown out the window.

  3. Jack says:

    JEM Model Quote ::: 28th-30th. Heavy lake-effect snows coincide with Thanksgiving–half a foot or more in the traditional snowbelts. Stay CUED ;-)

  4. This farmers almanac that I got for 2013-2014 has been pretty accurate lately. If the alminac is correct the last few days of November it was heavy lake effect snow with heavy accumulations

  5. Ohh and while I am on here, are they still forecasting about an inch of snow around here with temperatures in the low thirty’s? Intellicast has dropped there daytime high Tuesday to 33

  6. Cort S. says:

    I remember hearing discussions about lightning after the big hurricanes of 2005. Chances are, if there is lightning in a hurricane/typhoon, it is probably a storm worth talking about (either due to its strength or rapid intensity fluctuation). Here is a scientific paper from 2011 that talks about lightning in tropical cyclones. Anyone who is curious to learn more, check out the abstract.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00236.1

  7. Mike M. says:

    Is there a connection between the strange lightning and the weird object they spotted around Mars? Hmmm??

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/08/hubble_spots_lawnsprinkler_asteroid_that_has_boffins_baffled/

  8. I’m not surprised the U.N. didn’t mass evac. See: Agenda 21, and this http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Georgia_Guidestones_-_tavola_inglese_-_english_table.jpg

    Believe it or not, that is up to the individual. I’m just putting it out there. A vessel to share info if you will.

  9. Daniel G says:

    In that area of the Philippines what were they going to evacuate them with? Its a very poor area of the world and where would they evacuate them to? Sad but true…not a lot could have been done in the time allowed.

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