Cold Air’s Comin’

November 10th, 2013 at 2:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

grand haven 10 26 10 drake olmstead   This picture was taken by Drake Olmstead during the windstorm of 10/26/2010.   The winds were howling and the waves were coming over the breakwaters during the night.  Gusts included 52 mph at the S. Haven Lighthouse, 47 mph at the Muskegon beach, 45 mph at the Grand Haven Channel, 42 mph at the Holland Channel, 40 mph in Grand Rapids, 37 mph at the airports in Muskegon and Holland and 36 mph at the airports in Ionia and Kalamazoo.  Today looks partly sunny with winds diminishing a bit and highs in the mid-upper 40s.  The cold front arrives on Monday with a shot of rain – probably changing to snow before it ends.  The European model gives G.R. 0.24″, the GFS is 0.20″ and the NAM is 0.18″.  All the models give us highs of 33-36 on Tuesday.  With a northerly gradient, lake-effect snow showers will be mainly at the south end of the lake in Indiana.  However, they may clip the points in Mason and Oceana Counties and Berrien Co.  As the flow turns NW and then W, flurries will move inland.  We warm up aloft and they will end the flurries – so no significant snow for most of us.  Surface temperatures from Weds. to Sat. will warm up a few degrees each day.  Looks like another shot of cold air around the 25th.  More later – enjoy your Sunday.

45 Responses to “Cold Air’s Comin’”

  1. INDY says:

    GO COLTS…..INDYY

  2. Dan says:

    Old Man Winter is attempting to make his presence felt! After temps moderate later this week, do we stay cold following the next shot of Arctic air?
    SNOW storm potential on or around Thanksgiving? Lets get ready for Winter!

  3. Dan says:

    GO LIONS! Take down DA’ Bears for first place in the NFC North!!!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Today may well decide the Lion’s season. A win makes them a legitimate contender, a loss means a battle to finish 8-8 or 9-7 and probably just missing the playoffs.

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Vegas now has a line on the game, after going even through saturday. I wonder what they are thinking.

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    So no significant snow for us during next weeks cold shot. Hopefully we get something on November 25th then

    1. Dan says:

      Some lake effect Nathan but not for our area (GR area) Looks like temps moderate beginning Wednesday. Did we have our first official frost of the season yet? We have been cold at night but not sure we received frost!

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Been 31* at my house 2 or 3 times. No colder than that though.

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Well, almost halfway through November and as far as I can remember this is the latest I’ve ever seen a couple things:
    No frost or freeze
    Tomatoe plants still alive
    Trees that not only have leaves yet, but are still mostly green
    Grass thats still growing and needs to be mowed
    If we don’t get below freezing this week, the kids may well still be doing yard work into December this year. Crazy.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      You’ll be below freezing by 8 or 9 tomorrow evening.

    2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      As is usually the case in West Michigan, a little distance can make a huge difference. Here in Rockford, we’ve gotten as low as 25 and have been below 30 degrees I believe 4 or 5 times already. Not surprisingly, 90 percent of the leaves are off the trees in the woods in my backyard and fall colors are mostly past peak. Unfortunately, I’ve seen less than 5 minutes of extremely light flurries for snow thus far, but that could change later tomorrow.

    3. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Lowest here was 32.8 in October.

    4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      The coldest here at my house so far this fall has been 29° and yes there are still a lot of leaves on the trees here in GR. We went to Bay City for the weekend and on the way there Friday night there was a good temp difference. In the middle of the state in the Mt Pleasant area the temp was down to 29° by the time we got to Midland it was up to 37 and by the time we got to Bay City it was back down to 33°
      On the way home today starting in Bay City there are still some leaves on the trees in town a few on the trees in Midland and by the time you get to Mt Pleasant no leaves. Then they start showing up just before you got to 131 once again! And here in GR a lot of leaves.
      SlimJim

  6. kevin. w says:

    Cold coming early this week then we warm up a little with maybe some rainy weather somewhere around the weekend then maybe some brutal cold coming. As the remenants of typhoon over the Philippines buckles the jet toward the 20th most models are now showing signs of very cold air coming down. Next question is do we get a storm out of it or not (like this cold snap) and I’m pointing toward the “not” scenario. Heres the EURO on the cold for the 20th http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010040812!/

    Still looking at a pretty stormy end of Nov and into Dec. according to the RDB/JMA model and both show very strong storm around the 5-8th of Dec. will see.

  7. kevin. w says:

    Also looking at the AO/NAO both want to go negative in about 12 days and a few models show very strong blocking the first week of Dec. So if the RBD/JMA show a storm the first week of Dec. then I would say very cold/snowy and lots of lake effect blizzards coming all through December. :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You Rock kevin – keep the data and the good news rolling! The RDB has been showing a storm for the week of 12-8-13 for a while now. Glad to see the JMA and the teleconnectors getting on board!!

  8. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    So Bill, if you’re up for answering, do you think the Muskegon area is going to get its first accumulating snow of the season tomorrow into Tuesday? It seems like a good bet, but the NWS doesn’t seem so sure…

    1. kevin. w says:

      There never sure if the sun rises in the west.

      1. kevin. w says:

        east lol

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          haha…I didn’t want to say anything, as I didn’t want to embarrass you.

          Yep, it is that time of the year when the NWS irritates me, as they make it clear they have no idea what’s going to happen.

    2. kevin. w says:

      Ya that was funny Matt I’m watching football not thinking of the sun. I was in the middle of a play and just hit enter. LOL

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Really unlikely with a due north wind.

  9. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Lake effect snow watch for us. Still some question though as to where the band sets up though. Hopefully if the winds stay a lil’ more northwesterly areas from Van Buren county south could get hit pretty good. If they go more northerly though, looks like it will be far northwest Indiana that gets the brunt of this. Should be interesting though to see how this all pans out. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ077&warncounty=MIC021&firewxzone=MIZ077&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch#.Un_-qeJl3k8

  10. INDY says:

    INDY has been telling u all 4 a month now around the 15th we would have cold and snow yes Again artic air is on thee way…..Get outside now and enjoy the 40′s we will be in the 30′s this time tomorrow!!!! ARE U READYY??? Sprites are right logs on a fire and the ground will be snow covered !!!!!INDYY

    1. SW Kent says:

      Cold for 1 day Indy, then warm again, near 60 by Sunday.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      It’s going the be a chilly week for sure. Finally some widespread 20s for several nights.

    3. dylan says:

      INDY…as much as I want snow…Wood is forecasting 52 on the 16th, 59 on the 17th, and 61 on the 18th. I don’t think the 15th snow and cold you have been forecasting is gonna happen dude!!! SORRY!!!!! :/

  11. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Travis (Oakland County) says:

    November 3, 2013 at 10:41 am

    Wow another warm week upcoming. CPC keeps us mild and snowless. Feels like last year

    One week in to Travis’s “Boy It Sure Looks Warm For The Next Two Weeks Challenge”, we’re sitting at +1.1* in GR (Nov 3-9), with arctic air on the way.

    1. INDY says:

      travass who?? run forest run it’s cold outside!!!! INDYY…

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      But there’s still a few leaves left on the trees…. that must mean we’re in store for a record warm/snowless winter!! hahaha

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Travass is delusional and has a global warming sickness. You cannot believe a word that he utters!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Almost has delusional as you. Pathetic. Can’t believe anything you say. Your global cooling sickness is getting worse. Seek help. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

  12. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Your old uncle sparks got 12 face cords cut, all cherry. Your ol aunty Edna got er dun again this year. We have smoke, wood, booze, smoke, and plenty of fresh varmints in the freezer. Snow blind!

  13. We need a northwest wind! Bring the snow to my house!!! But sadly that’s not the case

    1. SW Kent says:

      NW winds do not bring snow to BC Kyle.
      I have lived in BC for 50 years.
      When we get a WNW, a W or a WSW wind, then we get snow.
      The best is a WSW wind direction for Byron Center.

      1. You want to bet? When ever we get a northwest wind I get lake effect. It all depends on where you live. A mile can make a difference. We have been here for over 50 years and get lake effect with both Northwest west and west north west. Im in the southwest corner of our county. Near Allegan and Ottawa

        1. Brian (Grandville) says:

          I lived in the S.W. corner of Kent for 20 years, and didnt get much snow at all with a nw wind. Wnw to sw is the best fetch for LES in that area. Anything else doesnt produce much.

        2. Likely because your to far north and the snow dives to the south. Im right at the tri-county like where all three counties come together. Well south of you Brian

  14. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    So when/where is that satellite coming down?

    Big win for the Lions. 1st place baby!

    1. mr. negative says:

      It’s over Texas right now, heading North. It’s over the US for another thirty five minutes…now or never.

  15. Dan says:

    LIONS win! They beat the BEARS and that cry baby Cutler! Suh will probably get fined and that is just a shame. I love the way Suh plays the game. I’m not talking about dirty stuff. He is strong and plays with an edge. This is the NFL! If you have the ball then, prepared to get hit! Hey who is that snow watch issued for? Probably Berien County?

    1. Yes, Berrien County has the watch. Possibly 3-7″ of snow depending on where the heaviest snow bands set up (whether they are here in Michigan, that remains to be seen).

  16. Just checked on some of the snow possible for West Michigan, and I seen the totals rise just a hair. Now saying around an inch of wet snow expected with a few slick spots possible tomorrow afternoon and evening

  17. Jacob G says:

    Its starting to look more likely we end up below average for the month in the temperature department. While we will have a few surges of warmth, the cold fronts are coming in more frequently and the snowpack is above average in Canada.

  18. Call me crazy, but I am looking forward to snow! :)

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