Mostly Sunny, Windy Weds. and Thurs.

November 13th, 2013 at 2:15 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

snow berrien county 11 12 13 doug pierce  snow berrien 11 12 13 picture from Travis Ulbergsnow berrien picture #4 11 12 13Snow Berrien County 11 12 13   More pictures of the snow in Berrien County Tues. AM sent to my by Doug Pearce, Travis and Michael.   Click to enlarge.  Up to 17″ fell in Berrien Co.  (read the end of this thread – there could be another snowdump early next week in Berrien Co.)  This snow is all going to melt as we have warmer temperatures on the way (60 on Sunday).  In the meantime, we’ll have a lot of days with southwest to south winds over the next five days.  The wind will be brisk and gusty today and tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph.  Some areas have had a lot of leaves come down with the colder air the past several days.  By 1 am it was 20 in G.R., the coldest we’ve seen since March 21.  It was 18 at Marshall, 17 in Rockford, 13 in Cadillac and 11 at Pellston (all at 1 am).   We’re getting a hard freeze tonight down to north Texas across to Atlanta, so it’ll take a few days for that southwest wind to get us warmer air (initially, we’ll get recycled cool air).   The mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a water temperature of 48.

Model update:   Morning GFS would have a significant lake-effect snow event for the lakeshore counties (esp. W. Van Buren, Berrien) from next Monday night thru Tues. night.  Could be another big dump after temps. reach 60 this weekend.  The GFS has the 1000mb thickness down to 508 next Tues. evening!  That’s mid-January cold!  The new NAM has highs of 43, 51, 58 for the next 3 days with the rain holding off until at least mid-afternoon on Sat. (the run comes in from the west…so the farther west you are, the better the chance of rain Sat. mid-late afternoon.

Overnight runs:  NAM (caribou) has highs of 37, 43 and 51 for the next 3 days (I think it’s a little too cool today and tomorrow) with peak winds of 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph both this PM/evening and Thursday.  The GFS plot has highs of 38, 43, 47, 54 and 65 on Sunday (the record high for G.R. for Sunday is 70), then the temperature falls to the upper 30s Monday PM.  It prints out 0.91″ of rain Sat. and Sat. night and another .44″ Sun./Sun. night.  We could even get a thundershower in the warm air.  While it’s cold enough to snow from Mon. evening to Weds., it prints out another 0.18″, which would be perhaps a couple inches of snow for G.R.  During that time it prints out 0.52″ for Benton Harbor, which would be another 6″ of snow from Monday night to Tues. night, along with 25 mph north-northwest winds.    The European prints out 1.63″ of rain for G.R. from late afternoon Saturday thru Monday.  It has temps. in the low 60s Sunday PM, then falling from 60 at 7 am Monday to 35 by 8 pm Monday.  Highs would only be in the mid 30s with snow showers on Tuesday.  It looks like another soaking rain, followed by snow showers.

Overnight they had snow flurries all the way down to Myrtle Beach SC.

143 Responses to “Mostly Sunny, Windy Weds. and Thurs.”

  1. If I had a guess, east of a line from Holland to Kalamazoo would likely get 8-12″ with more under some of the heavier snow banding with a Lake Effect snow warning for the Lakeshore counties. Then from about Fremont down to around Battle Creek would be about 5-8″ Then East of a line from Grand Rapids to Hastings likely just a trace-4″. Just my guess at this time, but im not an expert

    1. Srry west of a line from holland to kzoo*

      1. John says:

        Haha that would be a change for once if it was east of that area!

    2. John says:

      This is a good guess!

  2. Just took a look at what the srh noaa says and this is what I get. This goes out to 72 hours. Shows a lot of the snow from south haven to cassopolis. Idk if this is a good one to look at because im not good with which ones are good or bad, but this is what I found

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/

    1. John says:

      That is the past 72 hour snowfall

      1. Opps my bad lol!! thanks for the correction!

        1. John says:

          Your welcome! haha you seemed a little upset there when you said that the areas from South Haven to Cass county will get hit harder lol!

  3. INDY says:

    Lk. EFFECTT SNOW WATCHES COMING STAY TUNED!!!!! INDYY

    1. spoon says:

      Not a chance

      1. John says:

        There is a chance of it Spoon! did you come with the mad pitch fork?

        1. Jack says:

          Lol. John ! Here is A Cartoon ! You might get a Chuckle Out Of, I DID!!! ;-) . http://www.ibiblio.org/Dave/Dr-Fun/df200402/df20040211.jpg. … Stay Cued.. :-)

        2. Jack says:

          Whoops…ABOVE ^^^^^^^^^^ Lol. PEACE!!

      2. Jack says:

        Spoon … Check out The Cartoon BELOW*** for You,!! I believe U WILL, get ahhh Grin!!! :-) just having Some FUN !! With your Handle Here … STAY CUED…spoon… ;-)

  4. John says:

    Okay now the 00Z GFS is starting to come in!

  5. John says:

    The 00Z GFS no longer shows a lake effect snow event for the area and it also looks a little warmer too! still 4 days out things can change! Especially because this is the first run in like 3 days to not show the lake effect!

  6. spoon says:

    Didn’t i mention next week warm and no snow?

    1. John says:

      It’s not warm it’s still very cold I just said its a little warmer not by much! The GFS will change again showing the lake effect it does this all the time!

    2. Jack says:

      Sure…fixxxer….!!.??!!!!?? ;-)

  7. Kevin (Laketown Twp.) says:

    Love the enthusiasm about the upcoming system, and I sure hope it all comes together. ..
    Just remember it is only Wednesday, a lot can and will change. Like I’ve always said..what’s the % on getting forecasts right, predicting out, more then 5 days.
    Not the best….
    Anyways..here’s to hoping for an epic and energetic great lakes dump. Just in time for the holiday’s.
    Happy model watching…..

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