Severe Storms Sunday!

November 14th, 2013 at 3:42 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook  1200 UTC Day 2 OutlookThese are the severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday and Saturday night (left) and Sunday PM (right).  Michigan is in the green General T-Storm Outlook for late Saturday and Saturday Night and the Slight-Moderate Risk Area  for Sunday which has been expanded to cover much of Lower Michigan.     Read the discussions for each day at the links.  For Sunday SPC says:  “EXTENT OF ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE…STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.”  This is a significant shot of warm and relatively humid air for mid-November with dewpoints well up into the 50s.  The showers and storms could produce heavy rain.  The European model data out this afternoon gives G.R. a total of 1.24″ of precipitation from midday Saturday thru Monday.  Most all of that is rain with a brief changeover to snow before it diminishes Monday night.  The GFS plot has 0.99″.  Either way, it’s a good soaking.  The system does not bring down as much cold air and there is no secondary trough and that means less lake-effect snow than the models showed yesterday morning.  We have now gone 9 days without a single severe weather report in the U.S.   Also, GRR has a nice discussion this (Fri.) evening on the weather for the next 5 days.    GRR NWS has a few slides on the weekend storm system.

The afternoon run of the GFS model gives G.R. a high temperature of 69 on Sunday (the record high for the date is 70, set in 1953 and 1958.


119 Responses to “Severe Storms Sunday!”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Forget the shovels, bring out the de-humidifier?

    WeatherTrends now showing another 50′s push around Thanksgiving.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Anything is possible – especially considering how cold it’s been lately.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Seek medical help as quickly as you can! WeatherTrends is a worthless site. It has a horrible warm weather bias and is never correct. 100% WORTHLESS garbage!

    3. Df (SE Mich) says:

      I will take your 50′s and raise you 30′s from acculess.

      Let the battle begin between WhateverTrends and Acculess. :)

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Haha, that’s quite a variance.

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Just like when you said it was going to be cold mid November, and I said 45-55?

        If anything, I was too chilly in my forecast.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It depends on what you consider mid November.

          For GR:

          11/12 was -13, high of 36
          11/13 was -10, high of 43
          11/14 was -1, high of 47


          11/12 was -12, high of 35
          11/13 was -10, high of 41
          11/14 was +1, high of 53

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Here in G.R., the highs since Nov. 10 (mid-November) are 48, 44, 36, 43, 47 and 50. We get a mild weekend, then we’re back to cool. BTW the record high temperature for Sunday for G.R. is 70, set twice in the 1950s. In the 2000s G.R. has set one record high temperature and tied another.

          For November 1-15, G.R. is -1.3 deg. from average, Flint is -0.7 and Ann Arbor is -2.2.

    4. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Please Travis. One “Boy It’s Gonna Be Warm For The Next Two Weeks Challenge” at a time.

      Current challenge update..11 days in (Nov 3-13) GR is sitting at -2.0*.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Rock On michael – you cannot believe a word that Travis utters, especially if he is relying on the global warming WeatherTrends site!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          As if anyone can believe anything you say. Pathetic. I love it. Fantastic. Thanks for listening.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Funny you sound just like fixxxer – always whining and being negative. Some things never change!

        3. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for listening. I love. Fantastic.

    5. Brad says:

      70 Sunday and 60s the first week of December. Winter is shaping up to be a few brief shots of cold air followed by mild stretches.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Yes, some winters are milder than others.

        1. Brad says:

          Profound, Mark.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:


      2. Bill Steffen says:

        “70 Sunday and 60s the first week of December”? Where? Florida? LOL

        1. Resourceful Nana says:

          If it reaches 70 in my Michigan backyard on Sunday followed by severe storms, I won’t be laughing.

      3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Chicago has an outside chance at 70 degrees on Sunday.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          So does Oklahoma City. Go figure.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Yeah, and the Jaguars have a chance of going undefeated the rest of the season.

  2. John says:

    We’ve had it before where models change and then two days later they change right back! So at this point the lake effect snow potential is still not out of the question but unlikely!

  3. The part that sucks about Michigan this time of year is the weather becomes very boring. It flip flops from rain to snow to rain a lot in November and models change like mad because November is “Transition Month”. First widespread school closings usual come around December 10th give or take a few days. But if this winter is anything like last year, Byron Center schools wont use there first snowday until late January

  4. John says:

    18Z GFS is coming out right now! Although I do t rely on this model it’s still fun watching the updates to see what new things the GFS offers and what old things it wipes off!

    1. John says:

      *Don’t *

  5. John says:

    So thankful tonight! Just found out that good friend of mine was in a serious accident but lived with only bruises and a bloody lip! So so thankful!!!

  6. GunLakeDeb says:

    As I sit here, warming up after mowing the lawn…. pondering the possibility of a tornado seems crazy! But it’s good old Michigan where anything can happen!!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Our first major snowstorm of the season will be hitting the week of 12-8, and then winter will be hitting with a vengeance. Get ready for over 100 inches of SNOW with plenty of cold and wind! I love it. Bring in on!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      In your dreams. Your cold and snow sickness is getting worse increase your meds.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Rodey aka fixxxer = whining brain dead complainer!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Rocky (aka Pathetic)=jackass

  8. Daniel G says:

    Hopefully the rain holds off till Sunday afternoon when we are DONE WORKING. Switching boxcars in the rain is a real BUMMER…to say the least.
    After next week it looks like high 80′s for highs and high 70′s for lows and very humid…on 7 Mile Beach. Drinking Bacardi under the seagrape tree with wifey and enjoying spectacular sunsets over the caribbean.
    Then again nice sunsets over Myers Lake this evening too…

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Daniel G. :: Speaking of RailRoads . Here is a Old Poco Song That Fits into Your Comment Above^^^^^ CUE, And ENJOY … Turn it UP Meyers Lake !!! ;-)

      1. Daniel G says:

        After being on the lake 13 years one would assume I SHOULD know how to spell it eh?
        Had POCO up on the cassette deck just the other day too.
        Try this one by REM, Driver 8 Hits what we do by 110%. Even the railroad is correct. Of course then it was Chessie and now CSX…but still the same to me.

      2. Daniel G says:

        And yeah, its myers lake too by the way.

  9. SW Kent says:

    Looks like we may make a run at 70 Sunday pm.
    Then looks like upper 40′s, lower 50′s next weekend.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      In your dreams! Funny you sound just like Travis?

      1. SW Kent says:

        Rocky, I made a simple weather statement……why do feel the need to rip on everyone here?
        You don’t need to say in your dreams.
        You don’t need to say I sound like Travis….whoever that is.
        Chill out and let’s keep it to the weather….OK?

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          He rips on everyone because he’s a jackass.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for listening and keep up the good work! I appreciate your support! COLD and SNOW Rocks! Bring it on!

        3. Barb says:

          I concur. Let’s quit the name calling and stick to the weather. We don’t appreciate the inane comments.

  10. Jack says:

    NICE TIE BILL ! We Love it !! Keep Up The Great Work !! Stay Cued & God Bless ! From: Uncle Jack & Auntie Irene. :-)

  11. Jack says:

    THUNDER ..Would Be GRRRREAT!! Let it Roll… Folks…CUE::: ;-)

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Classic. Shifting the focus away from the warming, since it’s no longer happening, to a new and always more serious crisis. It would be funny if there weren’t so many ignorant people who probably believe it.

      1. Brad says:

        What do you mean, no longer happening? We’re back to century averages?

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          It’s still warming? NO. Not for 15 years now.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The ecological crisis du jor.

      1. Brad says:

        Because your understanding of ecology is driven by mass media coverage, correct?

        1. Jack says:

          Ahhh YES….” Before The Deluge “…. CUE::: ;-)

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It is not necessary for me to seek out the latest and greatest Armageddonesque crisis when links to them can be found here.

        3. Brad says:

          Wow, Mark. You’re quite the reader!

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Aw shucks, thanks Brad.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      Well, gosh, we were wrong about CO2 causing global warming ( But CO2 does cause ocean acidification. So we still need to tax carbon and de-industrialize the world.

      What is “pre-industrial” and how could they measure the entire ocean in “pre-industrial” times:

      1. Brad says:

        Oh boy…a blogger without a college degree.

  12. WOW!! Bashing each other, so much for a WEATHER BLOG! i like reading post relating to weather, not anymore,it’s bs some like to constantly tear each other down!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m always one to tell you what I think about something in good nature, but don’t go down that road. You’re exactly right. This use to be all about weather, and sometimes climate change, now it’s more back and forth ranting, and bashing people. I try to ignore it as much as possible, but sometimes it’s still hard to ignore. It’s not easy to learn how to take criticism and walk away, but we have to be able to do so at times.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Mindy sounds like a fat girl name.

  13. kevin. w says:

    Well the 12z and 18z gfs show blocking coming after thanksgiving. The euro is now starting to show more blocking and I see the MJO, AO, NAO and PNA are all on the move finally. I also see some pretty intense storms out in the pacific around thanksgiving which will have to keep an eye on once the enter the westerlies.

    1. John says:

      Don’t put any hope into anything beyond this weekend it might be a big let down! It was for me last night!

      1. Jack says:

        Chin Up, John. Hope is all We Have, when it comes to Weather Predictions! I Believe We all KNOW, Who is ALLWAYS in TOTAL Control of The Weather. Sooo.. Stay Cued, FOR .. ” GOD” UPDATES!! Peace, and Prayers ….JOHN. ….+….. :-)

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Save it for church, Jacko.

  14. Kevin (Laketown Twp.) says:

    Love all the enthusiasm about the snow chances but i think everything just needs to chill until one of these cold and super snowy outbreaks happen and sticks around for a little bit before anyone puts any real hope in the it. We have done this the past few winters. ..All the models show big cold and snow outbreaks but as we get closer to day they always moderate.
    Nobody cry wolf…

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Not that it’s ever easy for them, I think this time off year may be the most difficult to forecast. Drove through St. Joe today, and there was still about 8″ on the ground.

  15. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I am hoping for a snowier pattern by December first, before if possible. I haven’t seen accumulating snow for nearly 9 months! I don’t think I can go much longer…

    1. Jack says:

      Nathan, The JEM Model is still Tracking Accumulating SNOW on your Birthday !! I guess You have To Wait till You Are another YEAR…OLDER!! LOL…… Stay Cued ….Kid. & And Keep Up Your Great Comments and Links . I have Enjoyed Them and I’m sure Many other Bloggers Have as Well. Sincerely , JACK ( JEM Model OWNER)… ;-)

  16. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    But back to the thread subject, it would be really cool to get a thunderstorm this late in the year.

    1. Jack says:

      Thunder BOOMS & LIGHTING ZZZOOOOMMSSS!!! Stay Cued…Coming Soon this Sunday ???

      1. jerry hoag says:


        Maybe a twist or two!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Dew points into the 50′s??? I guess that’s great news for any hunters that enjoy hunting in shorts! Can’t believe I mowed the yard today in mid November. Hopefully this will be the last time?

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m pretty sure i saw someone cutting grass in December last year.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        That is true. The past couple years winter has been coming later and later.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      More like dewpoints closer to 60 or even past that!

  18. kevin. w says:

    Just kinda been looking at some data and based on what I’m looking at across the globe. I’m thinking that we may be in this up/down pattern for awhile before we can get a very strong storm to move the jet stream south lay down some good snow pack for the cold to sustain itself. So I’m not putting much faith in any model until I see a good 6 inches of snow down to our north then we might be able to talk snow. After all snow is ice and that would keep temps. from going anywhere but down. I’m sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see some big plays on the field before saying winter is coming. So the score is tied and winter needs a touchdown to win the game for winter to go to the super bowl. :)

    1. Jack says:

      So it comes Down too A Fumble or aTouchDown??? Hmmm…. Interesting , Kind like OBAMA Care ! LOL.. .?? ;-)

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Thats funny!

  19. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Cabrera wins A.L. MVP again!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      So deserved. Best hitter in the game, and the one player that is most valuable to his team. We were steamrolling over opponents until he got hurt.

  20. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I just got back from Bittersweet Ski Lodge, and they said this is one of, if not their earliest start ever. There was a decent amount of skiers and snowboarders there tonight. They plan on making more snow next week during the night. They had 2 runs open. We somehow still have a little snow on our deck, and on the south side of structures.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Wow, we have yet to get snow that covers everything. Year 5 where the Muskegon area is one of the last places in MI to get ground-covering snow?

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        I was surprised to see any snow left, but it has stayed in the mid 30′s here in the shade. I raked leaves this afternoon, and a bunch of individual leaves still had snow on them.

      2. John says:

        Muskegon is not the last place in MI to get a ground covering snow! Look at eastern areas their only source of snow is through a snowstorm!

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Deb from OKC?

    2. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      I thought something was going on down there. I can see their lights from my house and they’ve been on for the past four nights now. It is early for them.

  21. Megatron says:

    I hope no strong thunderstorms on Sunday just want plain jane rain and for it to stay cold since it’s Nov. I know I’m no fun LOL.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Better than running the a/c any day.

  22. INDY says:

    Bill travass and a few of his play names are getting out of hand on your blog please give rocky a break!!!!! what’s wrong with his blogs about snow storms winter is coming right???? uncle Jack I will call u tomorrow around 4ish….INDYY

    1. Jack says:

      Yeah !!! Indy !!! 4…. am or pm ??? Uncle Jacks Phone Line is always OPEN!! For ” GREAT” Friends Like You ! Talk with Ya, FRYday either WAY…. , ;-) . Stay Cued….;-)

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      And Undy and the other jackasses are getting out of control on your blog. Give Travis and others a break. What’s wrong with having a difference of opinion.

  23. If Sunday proves to be worth while, I’ll be chasing that day. You can follow my chasing adventures at this link: I will be uploading photos in real time from my cell phone if things get going. Hoping for the best! :)

    1. Jack says:

      Good Deal..Charles Russell !!! Here is a Song To Go along With ” Your CHASIN”. ! ENJOY & CUE::: Al Di Meola – Chasin’ The Voodoo – YouTube
      ► 4:23► 4:23

  24. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Woah! It could get nasty around here this weekend. Chicago may hit 70 degrees.

    “The sprawling system is predicted by the most aggressive computer models to intensity, with central pressures dropping from 29.21” (989 mb) to 28.70” (972 mb). If these central pressures verify (prove accurate), the northeast-bound weekend storm could prove one of the most powerful half dozen systems on record in the Great Lakes region.

    A central pressure of 980mb (28.94″) would equal the reading found over Lake Superior in the infamous Edmund Fitzgerald storm. A lower reading would render it a more intense storm than that system.”

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Chicago may hit 70 but as per NWS, the forecasted high for Chicago-O’Hare is 65 on Sunday. Likely to change in the next 72 hours, though.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Chicago could hit 70 on Sunday and the Obamacare website could be working perfectly next week.

  25. FDM(Cedar Springs) says:

    FDM has been on this for over a week now, WEBcam up and ready to get even more active as the minutes, hours, days continue. Bill if you want to know what the FDM is, email me and I’ll tell you and show you, trust me you’ll love it! ;-) Right Jack?

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      30% for entire SE Mich! It’s been a while since I’ve seen that.

      Looks like chances a little less for West Michigan – but still pretty high.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Truth. We didn’t see much of that during the warmer months this year.

        This system looks like it could be a whopper.

  26. mr. negative says:

    Storm free…wet

  27. Giant Bubble will destroy any Thunderstorms. Happens all the time. By tomorrow severe threat shifts east of MI.

  28. Bnoppe says:

    Best dynamics all year

    1. FDM(Cedar Springs) says:

      Wait and see but I’m beginning to hurt and my FDM is in agreement, FDM just needs to increase 5X or more to verify.

  29. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Boyne Mountain opened today. Earliest in 20 years. Granted, that’s because of the new technology and wider array of snow cannons. But still good to see. Not sure I would invest all that money myself before rain and warmth, but hey.

    1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      They had some snow earlier this week!!! So that doesn’t surprise me…

  30. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Hoping West Michigan gets some of this storm action….we’re right on the border. This will probably be our last storm of the year.

  31. INDY says:

    140 mph jet over west Michigan Sunday mean bad winds coming !!!! Pick up the yard now get the flashlights ready I have lots of sprites on ice!!!! Some folks will have no power come Monday Morning… Stay tuned to Bills blog!!! INDYY……….

    1. jerry hoag says:

      YES INDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe a twist or two toooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      And a blizzard Monday right?

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Uh – no…no blizzard here.

  32. Jack says:

    HEY BILL: What is Your Take on ” Severe Storm SUNDAY” effecting NFL Sunday Games ???? While we are On The Subject of Sports BILL. Looking forward to YOUR SPORTS THREAD, This Weekend !!! Coming SOON .???? Stay Cued & ” How about THEM BADGERS “”"” ?? :-)

  33. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    Our last chance for severe weather this year. I lived in southern Alabama for 7 years, just about every year tornado watches on Christmas Eve or Christmas night. I can remember some southern states would have killer tornadoes about Christmas time. This storm will be interested to watch. Everyone let’s “rock n roll”, (maybe just a little).

  34. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWAAK! Seriously I need to secure the coop this late in the season?! Numbering feathers right now! Getting ready to run in panic circles Sunday!

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