Severe Storms Sunday!November 14th, 2013 at 3:42 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
These are the severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday and Saturday night (left) and Sunday PM (right). Michigan is in the green General T-Storm Outlook for late Saturday and Saturday Night and the Slight-Moderate Risk Area for Sunday which has been expanded to cover much of Lower Michigan. Read the discussions for each day at the links. For Sunday SPC says: “EXTENT OF ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE…STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.” This is a significant shot of warm and relatively humid air for mid-November with dewpoints well up into the 50s. The showers and storms could produce heavy rain. The European model data out this afternoon gives G.R. a total of 1.24″ of precipitation from midday Saturday thru Monday. Most all of that is rain with a brief changeover to snow before it diminishes Monday night. The GFS plot has 0.99″. Either way, it’s a good soaking. The system does not bring down as much cold air and there is no secondary trough and that means less lake-effect snow than the models showed yesterday morning. We have now gone 9 days without a single severe weather report in the U.S. Also, GRR has a nice discussion this (Fri.) evening on the weather for the next 5 days. GRR NWS has a few slides on the weekend storm system.
The afternoon run of the GFS model gives G.R. a high temperature of 69 on Sunday (the record high for the date is 70, set in 1953 and 1958.