The Past and Future Chill

November 14th, 2013 at 10:36 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

30dTDeptUS   Click the image to enlarge.  This map from the High Plains Regional Climate Center shows a large part of the country (in the color green) has seen below average temperatures over the past month.  The areas in blue have been more than four degrees cooler than average.  Now, check out the Arctic Oscillation (going down), the North Atlantic Oscillation (going down) and the Pacific North America Pattern (going up).   When the Arctic Oscillation goes negative, the North Atlantic Oscillation goes negative and the Pacific North America Pattern goes positive, that usually means an upper level trough in the East and a ridge in the West.  That would mean NW flow over the Great Lakes and the ability of cold air from Canada to push south into the U.S.   Check out the North American snowcover (note the snow that was on the ground this (Thurs.) morning in Berrien Co. Michigan and La Porte Co. Indiana).   Most of Canada has snow on the ground.  Most of the lakes north of Lake Winnipeg are frozen now and ice is already starting to form on the west side of Hudson Bay.   The GFS long-range models show a lot of cold air over Canada at the end of the month, and it looks like Old Man Winter is going to spending some time in Michigan and the Northern U.S. in the first half of December.   Lake Michigan is 48 degrees and in December it’ll hang around 39 degrees as the lake overturns (kudos to the Dept. of Geology at Grand Valley for the explanation).   There’s certainly the potential for a good lake-effect event.

AND – check out the volcano in Indonesia.

83 Responses to “The Past and Future Chill”

  1. John says:

    It does look very cold for the end of the month! Could get interesting! :)

  2. Jack says:

    The Past and Future ” CHILL” ! Bill, or anyone Remember This CHILL from The PAST ??

  3. Bruiseviolet (CedarRock) says:

    Whoa loved the explination and graphics about the lake! Learned a lot I didn’t know.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I agree. Very interesting read. Science is cool.

    2. Jill C. says:

      Definitely. Thanks for sharing that info., Bill! :)

  4. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Sounds great!!

  5. kevin. w says:

    Sounds all and good Bill but NW flow is usually clipper type storms not the big ones out of the southwest. I think before we turn toward a northwest flow pattern I believe will get a good storm to turn the pattern toward your northwest lake effect event as depicted in some of the other long range models.

  6. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Not seeing any big chills in the near future:

    The NAO has moderated lately and is bouncing all over the place with no clear direction.

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I looked back at last years blog from mid November…we were in a dry pattern, and again, there was lots of cold air in Canada. It didn’t get here until the third week of January.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Once the front plows through, temps next week are are forecasted to be colder than average.

  7. John says:

    This is unbelievable the 30% severe weather risk comes all the way up the thumb for Sunday for the possibility of a straight line wind event, and tornadoes in Michigan in November!!! It also looks as if some people in Michigan will even see some 70′s on Sunday! Looks like some peoples waiting all summer for severe weather will finally happen in November! Then cold right after that! Weird weather!!!

  8. Paul S says:

    Wow… loved the Seasonal Lake Stratification examples!

  9. John says:

    12Z GFS update has some major cold coming around the very end of the month into early December. But I don’t trust the GFS so I’m going to wait until this actually happens! If it’s going to be this cold there could be a decent lake effect snow event around that time too! My hope meter is at 0/10 right now it will gradually go up as we get closer!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Maybe some LES next sunday into monday.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Just saw that. Looks like we have a shot at white Thanksgiving.

      1. John says:

        Wouldn’t that be cool to actually see a white Thanksgiving for once! The update has a lake effect event occuring on Thanksgiving so theres a chance! Could be very cold for those black Friday shoppers standing outside!

      2. John says:

        We also do our Christmas decorating the day after Thanksgiving so I’m hoping to have some snow on the ground for that!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yea, so do we… although it is nice to put up the Christmas lights outside when it is halfway decent. But I’ll take a white thanksgiving over anything, who cares! The lack of snow is making me snow sick…

        2. John says:

          Haha snow sick nice one! Nathan although it’s a bit early it might be best if you do your light decorating this weekend since it will be in the 50′s and 60′s!

  10. Dan says:

    Here comes Winter? Well, after the “warm up with Thunderstorms”
    Do we get LES or a Synoptic event to usher in the Arctic Blast?

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Maybe a few flurries…but nothing substantial.

  11. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Speaking of Thanksgiving, I remember a snowstorm a day or two before back in 2004. It might have been lake effect? We got hit pretty good in kalamazoo, it all melted the next day.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      11/24/2004 we had 9.7″ of snow in G.R. I cut the grass in the early AM and shoveled snow after the 11 PM news.

  12. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Temperature abnormality through half of November at Michigan climate stations:

    Detroit -3.6°
    Flint -1.3°
    Saginaw -1.2°
    Grand Rapids -1.7°
    Muskegon +0.2°
    Lansing -2.4°
    Alpena -0.5°
    Gaylord -1.5°
    Houghton Lake -0.5°
    Marquette -0.1°
    Sault St. Marie -0.9°

    Detroit has had many clear nights just out of the lake effect clouds. Average highs are still in the upper 40′s at this point of November but dropping fast.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Sigh…Why, Muskegon, why???? The only one above normal, if even just a little bit. November is so blah here.

      1. John says:

        Muskegon is closer to the lakeshore! I’m sure inland portions of the county are below average! It’s always warmer near the shore!

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    60′s on Sunday and 30′s next week? It is a possibility, but who knows how long the cold will last. Hopefully winter gets its act together soon though becuase we are already behind average for snow.

    1. John says:

      We have been behind average for snow in November the last three or four years all but one turned out to be normal at the end so don’t give hope up yet! It looks as if Thanksging time will be the time for the cool down!

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      GR’s average snowfall for the season, through November 15th, is exactly 2.6″ on average… keep calm please ;)

        1. Jack says:

          Whoops that Cue is for ROCKY..

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rock n Roll is here to stay!!! Great song!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Great point DF – it is still Fall, just wait till WINTER arrives and then watch out baby!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Im just stating the facts… we are below average for snow so far. However, we will likely see a change to winter within the next few weeks or so, at least according to Bill. And besides, I thought you said we would see a lot of snow in November, but now you are changing your position. Maybe you should try to stop proving me wrong? We will see a change to winter, we always do. Will it be next week, will it be later in the month, or will it be after Christmas… no one knows for sure. But SO FAR we have been below average, that may change within the next two weeks or so.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Well Nathan, you are mixing me up some other people on this blog. I have never said that we would see a lot of SNOW in November. I have consistently said that our first major snowstorm will hit around the week of December 8th. We rarely see a lot of snow in the month of November.

        3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Nathan acts like a girl.

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Lets review the facts:

    1. The new CPC 8-14 day outlook shows us with below average temperatures! Yes Travis below average! Imagine that!
    2. The teleconnectors are trending towards cold and SNOW!
    3. Once December rolls around the transition to WINTER and COLD and SNOW will be in full gear!
    4. We are right on target for our first major snowstorm to hit near the beginning to middle of December!
    5. GR will be seeing above average SNOWFALL this winter!
    6. The JEM model rocks!
    7. ROCK n ROLL will never die.

  15. Jack says:

    JEM Model……” Weekend UPDATE” Re: Significant SNOW !!! Nothing has Really Changed as Far as The JEM Model , PREDICTION for The LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER !!!! Stay Cued… For further Updates & Cues … ;-)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      In JEM we trust! Bring it on!

      1. Jack says:

        Ahhhh YES, The JEM is The ” ROCK n ROLL Doctor “… CUE, LITTLE FEAT!!!! Featuring The Late GREAT ….Lowell George !! Crank it UP….Feats FANS…. :-)

  16. Jack says:

    ” DEER HUNTING HUMOR”…… HERE::: Classic ….LOL….LOLOLOO….;-). Stay cued !

  17. Jack says:

    Breaking NEWS ……Re: Deer HUNTING at Uncle SPARKEE’ S !! He Just Sent Me This Picture from Earlier this YEAR ! It speaks Volumes about The DEER in Baldwin M.I. , and OLE Uncle Sparkee…Lol…. ;-)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      LOL…the food chain does include the people who eat those deer too!

  18. INDY says:

    We will be smoking a deer at uncle sparks with 50 mph winds Sunday….INDYY

    1. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

      How do you keep the deer lit? They have always said weed was a “gateway drug”…..

  19. kevin. w says:

    Wow the MJO is going nuts and so is the AO and the NAO will have to see how the models are going to handle these changes. In fact one model has the AO tanking the first week of Dec. at -6 and the NAO going to -5 (massive blocking) and the JEM/RDB model still has a hell of snowstorm the first week of DEC.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock On kevin – all heck is about to break loose! We will be getting absolutely hammered in the month of December, however it will be sunny and warm in Flint!

    2. Jack says:

      Kevin…MJO ?? Does It MEAN THIS???? JEM still Shows Big SNOW,last week of NOV. Stay Cued… ;-)

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The “Little Ice Age” is on the way. Get ready for a lot of cold and snow!

  21. John says:

    18Z GFS has a big dip in the jet stream around the 26th with some decent lake effect! Something to watch!

    1. Jack says:

      Hmmmm, That would be The LAST Week of November !! ( applause ) ” Thank- U, Thank U very MUCH”. JEM model has been Right ON CUE!! With this Event, for A LOOOONNGG TIME ! Right….ROCKY?? stay cued… ;-)

  22. Dan says:

    Lets go Old Man Winter! Bring IT! We are anxiously waiting your REAL arrival! JEM model was VERY accurate last Winter. We shall see if that is the more reliable weather model.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      We do know one thing the long range JEM model is far better than the long range GFS model. Lets hope the JEM model is onto something!

  23. kevin. w says:

    Jack I know I’m not going to do what travaas does on here about winter…. :)

    1. kevin. w says:

      Good one, eh.

    2. Dan says:

      Led Zeppelin the BEST ROCK BAND EVER! I wonder if there is any truth to the rumors about a possible Zep tour with Jimmy Page, Robert Plant, John Paul Jones and Jason Bonham in 2014?

    3. Jack says:

      LOVE IT…KEV. !! Talk about a Fit for The Weather around Here. Some Time ya gotta ” Ramble on” to find a GOOD Storm ! Peace, and Happy ” FRY”day ! ;-) . Stay cued… West MIIIICCCCHHHHHIIIIIIGGGGAAANNNN !!

    4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      What an absolutely AWESOME song!! +1 trillion!

  24. Dan says:

    Rock on, Rocky! It should get very interesting around here in the next couple of weeks! First, we have to contend with Thunderstorms.

  25. Dan says:

    Oh and Lets Go Lions! Take care of Pittsburgh for a commanding lead in the NFC north! ROAR!!!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Haven’t won in Pittsburgh since 1955. It’s time to change that.

  26. kevin. w says:

    WOW I gotta believe there may be a moderate risk out for Sunday for someone in the Midwest as I’m looking at the data. For one the winds aloft are intense and with a very strong cold front wind direction is fast out of the southwest and fast out of the northwest plus rotation is pretty high as well. If these winds get tapped by any thunderstorm activity there’s going to be some tremendous straight line wind damage. Have to wait and see what the 00z/12z euro and ensembles say tomorrow and the jet max winds are extreme.

  27. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Reed Timmer is calling for a tornado threat as far north as southern MI Sunday!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:


      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        On his Facebook page

  28. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Beautiful moon out. Good night for a bonfire.

    1. Jack says:

      Yeah and it’s a GOOD Night for A ” HOE~ DOWN” !! “Hoe Down”

      (Richie Furay/Rusty Young)

      Well, I’m going to a hoe down
      And kick up my heels
      Go all night and never slow down
      Yes, I love how it feels

      Come on and go to the hoe down
      And kick up your heels
      You go all night and never slow down
      Bet you’ll love how it feels.

  29. kevin. w says:

    I’m sure there will be a wind advisory out sometime from the NWS and maybe a high wind warning if the models come in with stronger winds aloft able to reach the ground, will see.

    1. John says:

      Looks very likely! I’m think a high wind warning because it looks like gust could get up to 55-60MPH range!!!

  30. John says:

    WOW 4 on the tor con for southern lower Michigan!!! this is just unbelievable considering were nearing the end of November! Defiantly looks like central and southern Lower Michigan are in for a big wind event on Sunday!

  31. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I have been looking through some data… Sunday will be an interesting day for sure

    1. John says:

      Looks like everyone south of Manistee to Alpena could get a damaging line of storm Sunday afternoon! Something to watch!

  32. John says:

    00Z GFS shows the line of storms starting around Chicago and Milwaukee between 10am-2pm on Sunday then crossing the lake and hitting West Michigan after 2pm! Looks very interesting!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I hope not. A lot of good nfl match ups this weekend.

  33. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Looks like I will have to cut up my buck Sat afternoon as it will be to warm to let him hang. Then I will prolly loose electric on Sun and the meat still won’t be froze all the way. Crazy weather that Novembers have some times. I quess I better start cooking and eating the meat fast. This storm could be called the Venison Slammy of 2013.

    1. Jack says:

      Roflmbo..Vincent … ” More Deer Meat HUMOR Here “. ;;; ;-) . LOL..Try it you’ll LIKE It ! ;-)

      1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

        Good one Jack. I left them in the woods for the crows to roll around. They are always after cheap food. It looks like doozy of a November storm headed this way. I’m glad that I am not at deer camp in my tent. Did that once with high wind warnings. Trees were coming down everywhere. I lived thru it and will never forget it. Started out warm,then thunder storms. Temps dropped. Over night is sounded like jets flying thru the woods. Lake Co,Michigan.

        1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

          Oh ya. I think it was Nov 12 or 13th 2007 or 2008. So much for never forgetting. Ha. I’ll have to look up the Ole Camp Log book to know for sure.

        2. Jack says:

          Lake Co. That’s Uncle Sparkee’s Neck of The Woods !! I used to Live in Lake City, M.I. When I worked on a CHRISTMAS Tree Farm. SOOOO , I have had My share of Venison over The Years ! Also Have eaten Bear that one of My Co-Workers Shot one Year. Very, Tasty…. Stay Cued, Big WINDS! Wet, and Wild SUNDAY on ” TAP”…. ;-)

  34. Jacob G says:

    Moderate risk for most of west Michigan on Sunday.

    1. Jack says:

      Yup, See….2 Threads UP ^^^^^^^^^ Are U Ready ??? West Michigan …….

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