Extended Outlook: Cold

November 19th, 2013 at 5:54 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new    814temp.new  These are the 6-10 day temperatures outlook on the left and the 8-14 day temperature outlook on the right.  Blue areas indicate a higher than average chance of colder than average temperatures.  The orange colors indicate areas where temperatures have a greater than average chance of being warmer than average.  As you can see, a large part of the country is going to be feelin’ the chill over the next week.   The GFS gives Grand Rapids a high of 28 on Saturday and 23 Sunday afternoon!  The European model has low 30s Saturday afternoon and mid-upper 20s on Sunday.   It looks like even inland areas could get an inch (or two) with the best lake-effect band at +6″.  The mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a water temperature of 46.  The European model predicts the temperature a mile above ground will dip to zero Sunday AM, so that’ll be a 45 degree difference.

42 Responses to “Extended Outlook: Cold”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Those maps are a beautiful thing. Bring on the SNOW!

  2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Brrrr!!

  3. INDYY says:

    Ohhhhhhhh baby looks like winter is here to stay some Bill’s warm bloggers will be posting south!!! Black Friday shoppers will be in thee xmas spirit!! Stay tuned INDYY…

    1. dylan says:

      Christmas spirit ;) …just sayin!!

  4. Jack says:

    ” I’m Dreaming of a WHITE Thanksgiving”….. And Big Bird on The Slicing Pllatter ! Stay cued…for More Thanksgivng Chatter . ;-)

  5. Susan H says:

    Hi Bill,
    Have you seen the very large bright light in the sky tonight? It’s in the SW sky and has not moved since I first saw it at 6pm. Can a planet appear that big!?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Yes, that’s the planet Venus – which is near maximum brightness right now. Here’s more: http://www.universetoday.com/106160/bright-venus-takes-center-stage-in-november/

      1. Jack says:

        Hello BILL: Speaking of ” Venus”.. Take a trip Down …Memory Lane, with This OLD Jimmy Clanton TUNE ! CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxOmb7TBsus. ;-) .

      2. Bryan says:

        Off topic question here….

        Bill-

        Curious to your thoughts on this:

        1. Did the Super Typhoon hitting the Philippines a week ago have any effect or relation to Sunday’s storm outbreak and high winds that followed? I have heard you before mentioned Typhoons curving northward past Japan having an eventual effect on bringing colder weather down from Canada?

        2. With the wind gusts reported on the lake shore on Sunday with the first wave of storms and the heavy winds that followed, any noticeable signs of seiche occuring on Lake Michigan?

        Thanks,
        Bryan

        1. Cort S. says:

          I looked into the remnants of the typhoon a few days ago for another blogger. Typhoon Haiyan was blocked from curving northward by a region of high pressure, at least for a while. Its long stay over hilly terrain in SE Asia helped destroy the circulation all the way up to the mid-upper levels. Whatever was left of it (pretty much just deep moisture at that point) was absorbed within a ridge in the westerly jet. I do not think Haiyan had anything to do with amplifying the ridge-trough pattern in the jet stream, and it likely has not affected the weather in North America.

        2. Bryan says:

          Cort-

          Thanks for your input on the topic
          Bryan

  6. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Oh no. Is acculess going to beat out whatever trends? It is looking like it.

  7. Scott says:

    I know, another long thought process. But snow people might like what I think here, maybe. So here goes…

    North American Snow Analysis is showing Canada literally snow-covered from the US/Canadian Northlands border and north. This is what’s beautiful for cold lovers. Even though there is some sublimation occurring in the snow, at this time there is little in the way of melt. And with the cold air in place, that should not be an issue.

    With the addition over the next few weeks of even more snow, the snow line looks probable to significantly expand it’s territory southward. Deep snow pack helps to enhance cold air, retain moisture, and create record low territory in temperature under strong radiational cooling nights. which would have been much warmer if there hadn’t been such snowpack. So long as we do not have a significant stretch of warm weather or a chinook wind – this kind of snow pack can cause much below normal temperatures for prolonged periods, and as I’ve said in other entries – create baroclinic boundaries farther south (due to it being colder over snowpack meeting warmer air farther south) which helps to create areas of low pressure that are responsible for our snowstorms in this area. It is because of the canadian snow and the developing southward expansion of the snowpack that I believe a colder than normal and snowier winter is on hand this year. This much canadian snowpack this early is a very good sign – a probable sign, actually of this.

    This isn’t a guarantee that this year will be colder or snowier than normals, of course. But, models indicate quite a deepening of Canadian snowpack over the next two weeks from several inches to over a foot or more – there’s a likelihood that below normal temperatures will continue in Canada, and a good chance that – with negative NAO’s – plenty of that can sweep on in. There still will be some warm surges as is expected, but I don’t expect them to dominate.

    So my personal prediction? With snowpack in place and bitter cold air already predominant in Canada, a colder and synoptic-driven snowier winter this coming winter, with several major lake effect events until the Lake is mostly frozen. I think no one will be dissapointed this year as January approaches. This prediction is not guaranteed. Amen. :)

    1. John says:

      Thanks Scott looking forward to your predictions! :)

      1. Scott says:

        You’re very welcome John. I’ve found this blog quite friendly so far, and I feel comfortable writing my thoughts here. Let’s just hope they turn out to be accurate thoughts. :)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I like your analysis and you are agreeing with RDB model so you must be correct! Bring it on! ROCK and ROLL will never die!

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Hey Scott and John – how about you include your location after your name?

      1. Scott says:

        Didn’t know you could do that after your info was set. It won’t go back to moderation mode if I make a change in the info per post?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes it is very helpful to see the location of the weather that you are posting about. It will not go back to moderation if you simply add your location in parenthesis right after your name!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          I think it used to go to moderation but now they changed it so its automatic.

    4. ray says:

      that sounds alot like the winter of 1976-77 when the temperature hit 11 below on Dec 2nd and lake Michigan froze over for the only time. I had a streach of 43 days in Jan and Feb that had no temperature above 32 degrees. But Fairbanks,Ak had 40 degree weather with no snow.

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Huge moon rising.

    1. INDYY says:

      Sounds like a wine name!! lol! INDYY

    2. Brad says:

      The moon’s size does not change, Mark.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        No, really? Wow, thanks for setting me straight.

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Im pretty sure he meant that it looked bright in the CLEAR sky (First clear sky in a while!) Also it is a full moon, so that makes sense, not to mention the fact that the moon does get closer and farther away from Earth at certain times throughout the year, although I am not sure when.

        2. Brad says:

          You’re welcome, Mark. Anything I can do for science.

        3. Brad says:

          BTW, anything Is better than fighting on Bill’s blog. I’m disappointed in the antagonistic tone.

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          One of my all time favorite optical illusions.

  9. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    At the moment it looks like the lake effect snow will be south and west of GR, but things could change… although with such a large blast of cold air, the wind direction will likely be more northerly than westerly.

  10. Nick says:

    Im surpised that no one is showing any weather models that show the outlook for then next week other than bill

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Imagine that :)

  11. John says:

    Power at my house is supposed to be back on by 8am tomorrow morning! I’ve been using one of those phone cases that charges your phone but it just lost it’s charge a few minutes ago so here’s hoping the power comes back on tomorrow morning! We’ve been using our fireplace to warm and the generator is running the refrigerator, one t.v and a space heater! My neighbors got their power back on this afternoon but my side of the road is still without power! :(

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Wow, where in Muskegon are you?

    2. John says:

      I’m in Norton Shores, the map says were not supposed to have it back until the 21st but when I called today they told me it could be on as soon as 8 am tomorrow morning, here’s hoping!!!!

      1. John says:

        What are the odds, as I was talking to you our power came back on! Halleluiah!!!! :) so glad now it’s time to get the heat going!!!!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I lost power 2 years ago, and was on the phone with a friend talking about my frustration about it, when….beep, up and running again. Glad to hear you have been restored.

        2. Jack says:

          50/50… ? Stay cued… Glad ya got your Power back!! ;-)

        3. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Jack, whats up with the Wings, 7 L’s in a row!

      2. Jack says:

        Shakes Head… Your guess is as Good as Mine !! Reminding ME of The “.DEAD~ WINGS” of OLD ! Side Shot:: Pistons ain’t Doing no better. And Lions well, 8-8 is What their Record will Be after 16 games. Stay Cued, For KENT CO. First .. 2 to 4 inches of SNOW ! Last week of November !!!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Here’s to another post season appearance with the Tigers, hope they get all their ducks in a row this off season.

        2. Jack says:

          Number 1 in the Row , must be MAD MAX!! IMHO …stay cued.. ;-)

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