Lots of Snow = Lots of Cold AirNovember 19th, 2013 at 9:10 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
I’ve been dropping hints on the blog that I think that we have a lot of cold in our future as we head into winter. We’ll see more northwest-flow lake-effect snow this winter, which should lead to above average snowfall in the usual northwest flow lake snowbelts (Holland south to Berrien Co. and inland to Kalamazoo…also Oceana Co. and Mason Co. They’ll see good snows this winter in places like Mancelona and Newberry. Inland areas (Mt. Pleasant, Lansing) will tend to see more average amounts of snow. With the cooler air in early winter, we’ll have a good number of days in Dec. and Jan. with snow on the ground (an excellent chance of a White Christmas). Look at the maps…solid snow cover from the U.P. northward this morning (snow depth this AM; 2″ Sault Ste. Marie, Watton & Newberry, 1″ Marquette, Gaylord, Munising, Paradise, Trout Lake and Big Bay)…solid snowcover of a large portion of NE Asia. The ice is already starting to form on the west side of Hudson Bay and the icecaps at both the North Pole and South Pole have grown significantly in the past year (the Antarctic icecap is at a record extent for November: “The U.S. space agency NASA announced, the sea ice in the Antarctic has extended over an area of 19.47 million square meters at the end of September. That is the highest since measurements began in 1979″). A larger portion of the Earth’s surface is covered in white snow and ice, allowing more of the sun’s light to reflect back toward space and there is less heating of the ground (and the air near the ground) during the day. Keep the snow shovels ready and save a few extra dollars for the heating bill.
Model update: The overnight European run has 0.10″ of rain Weds. night into early Thurs., 0.26″ Thurs. night into Fri., just 0.01″ Sat. (that would be snow) and 0.25″ Monday PM – Tues. and that would be 2-3″ of snow. The GFS has 0.06″ Weds. night into Thurs., 0.26″ Thurs. night into Fri. without a lot of snow inland. Both models are COLD…the European would keep highs in the low 30s for Sun. – Weds. of next week. The GFS is mid 30s…in any case, it’s cold enough for any snow to stick, esp. to non-pavement.
News: We now have 4 confirmed tornadoes in Michigan Sunday (we had only 6 tornadoes in Michigan in November from 1950-2012). This was the first tornado in W. Michigan since April 2011. The Northern Indiana NWS reported 11 twisters in the counties they covered. The tornado in Washington, Illinois may turn out to be the strongest tornado anywhere in the world in the month of November. Congratulations to Vicki Cech, who appeared on national TV on the Steve Harvey Show to talk about water safely. Along with the show, 50 volunteers built a new playground has been built at Grand Haven St. Park. Vicki puts together the awesome Beach Survival Challenge, raising thousands of dollars each year for life rings and beach safety. Well deserved.