Radar and Links

November 23rd, 2013 at 5:32 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   You can see still some a band of darker blue from Zeeland to north of Kalamazoo.  The snow showers will continue to move inland and weaken as temperatures moderate a big aloft.  Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan from 10 PM tonight to 10 PM Monday night as the wind cranks up again.  At 1 PM (Sun.) temperatures are between 21 and 25 in W. Michigan and wind speeds are down to 6-13 mph.  Keep checking back to this thread for these links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations.

Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s current watches and current mesodiscussions from the Storm Prediction Center Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven.

130 Responses to “Radar and Links”

  1. danielG says:

    86 right now on 7 Mile beach on Grand Cayman. time for a toddy and another sunset watch.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:


    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Sounds absolutely horrible. Way too hot. Give me temps in the teens with SNOW any day over that heat!

  2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Still one small area of western Allegan, southwest Ottawa, northern Van Buren getting hit good where the snowband is training along. Just very light stuff here in Berrien so far. Been anticipating this event all week, especially since it’s my only day off. Don’t wanna end up disappointed. Jeopardy song please, someone….. Jack??… :-)

    1. John says:

      One has to think they have or ally at least gotten 5 or more inches in tha area today!

      1. John says:


      2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        I bet someone in western Allegan, especially has already gotten 2-4.

        1. John says:

          I’m thinking more because my friend near Whitehall earlier said that they sat under a heavy band for about a half an hour and they picked up an easy 2″ of snow and In Allegan county they have been getting the heavy snow all day!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Hahah, and he meant it literally :p

        1. D-dog (Hamilton) says:

          Like for spotter report?

      2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Luv it!! Thanx. :-)

  3. DAO(New Richmond) says:

    Probably close to 7″ here. North of Fennville by New Richmond. Been showing hard all day since 10am. If it wasn’t so dry, we’d have 12-20″ by now.

  4. Sprites(Holland) says:

    Close to 5″ here in north west holland.

  5. John says:

    The 18Z GFS has increased snowfall amounts for Oceana and Mason counties for Mondays event and lake snow event now showing as much as 5″ come on GFS keep increasing the snow amounts! :)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      What is the wind direction, still north?

  6. John says:

    Snow showers are beginning to ramp up here! :)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I’m not looking out the window for the next couple of hours…I’m hoping when I wake up in the morning I won’t be able to see the stinking’ grass!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Well lets see – the GR area is right on target for a dusting of SNOW from this current lake effect event. Remember NW wind usually = squat for GR!

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We have stormy, cold and SNOWY December brewing! Get Ready West MI!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I sure hope so! Maybe by then the lake effect snow will actually hit GR. And speaking of LE snow, areas in the band could see 4-10 inches of snow… that is a pretty big difference. Every mile counts.

    2. Jack says:

      Oh Rocky, The Last Week of November starts at Midnight 2-Nite….just Sayin …. Snow & Cold all WEEK !! Stay Cued, Grand Rapids… ;-)

    3. SW Kent says:

      Rocky, what is your snowfall prediction for the 2013-2014 winter?
      I will then give you mine so we can see who gets closer.
      You still owe me lunch from last winter:)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        GR 107 inches! It is going to be a fantastic winter. Get Ready to ROCK n ROLL!

  9. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I was searching through the archive for the first mention of winter… what a surprise: Rocky :p
    Well another day of no rain and temps well below 90 degrees. Imagine that? The forecast for this week was temps around 90 degrees with rain almost every day? I have received about .2 inches of rain all week. Keep the average to below average temperatures coming! Also keep the severe storms and tornadoes away from West Michigan. I love it!! Lets hope that we see plenty of below average temperatures this winter!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock on baby! Bring on the SNOW!

  10. Brian(Grandville) says:

    All of New Mexico, and half of Texas are under winter storm warnings right now.

  11. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    OT here but anyone know about the school districts in Vicksburg or the Battle Creek Metro area? My dh finally found a job which requires us to relocate and move down to the Battle Creek area and we were thinking about the Vicksburg area so just wondering if anyone in that area could direct me to wonderful schools there and what you would recommend. That said, WOOOOO HOOOOO looks like I’ll be in the sweet spot for thunderstorms!!! Unless the bubble follows me down and W. Michigan/Kent finally gets the storms.

    Thank you to anyone who could help and recommend a good school system.

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      If your moving down here then you have the Kalamazoo promise for the in city schools. Might as well have your kids go there.

    2. Jeff (Richland) says:

      I’m not familiar with Vicksburg schools but Gull Lake (Richland) are rated very highly and it would be a relatively easy commute to Battle Creek down M89, also rather scenic till you get close to BC, lol, and you can avoid I94 which is an accident waiting to happen especially around Galesburg. I don’t know of an “easy” way to get to BC from Vicksburg, that’s a pretty good drive. May also want to check out some of the school districts around BC but I would not recommend BC schools from what I have heard.

      Also, you mentioned weather, so I’ll give you my experiences with that. I have lived in the Richland area for 6 years now. Overall, the weather in northern Kzoo county is “harsher” than southern 1/2 of the county. Generally, more snow seems to fall in the western and northern sections of the county. There have been many times where there will be no snow on the ground in the southern county and 4″ or more in the northern areas. As far as thunderstorms, also seems northern sections of the county seem to generally get it worse than south of I94. Of course there are always exceptions to this but in general for whatever reason the worse weather often seems to hit us here. I’ve mentioned this to my wife many times in the last 6 years. With that said though I would not live in one place or another because of weather, you should pick an area within reasonable commute, good schools, and financially right for you. Good luck and let us know where you end up!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Another thumbs-up for the Richland area!!

  12. I don’t know if its just me but I think its pretty stupid how the news was never on at 5 or 6 and still not at 10. All because of football. I think we should be talking about the snow and travel conditions and how west michigan is getting hit with snow rather than a football game

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      If it gets bad enough the news channel will break in, otherwise it’s regularly scheduled programing. Also the bad weather has been confined to the immediate lake shore for the most part, not wide spread. Ratings=money, that’s why.

      1. I think they could dedicate 10 mins at the top of the hour to give the latest. Plus they could talk about the shooting in kzoo

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      We always have a 10 PM news on WXSP. I can’t think of a time when that didn’t happen…it’s not affiliated with a major network and doesn’t do live programming.

  13. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Every time the band of snow tries to move onshore it wobbles back on tote lake. YAWN…

    1. Jack says:

      New Weather ” Term”… ” Wobble ~ Lake Effect” !! Lol… stay Cued!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        It goes along with the turkey theme…

        1. Jack says:

          Nice, I never Thought of that Matt. We could Change it a bit to, GOBBLE Lake Effect !;-)

    2. John says:

      The winds are supposed to shift west tonight which will bring the main snow bands on us! I know though I agree yawn! Up by Whitehall they have close to 3″ according to my friend, he measured around 9:30pm!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Yeah…but they will weaken too…

  14. John says:

    Only about a glad inch here! :(

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Full pickle?

        1. John says:

          Would you shut up!

    1. Dan says:

      John don’t let Jordan get to you. This is his whole MO for posting. Seriously, one has to wonder about Jordan. All he is capable of positing are put downs and insults. It definitely answers the question about what kind of person he is huh? He is about 10 years and likes to Troll here. If you don’t believe me read his comments!

  15. dylan says:

    Sure wish Grand Rapids would get some GOOD snow soon!!!!!! Funny…it gets super cold and all the “GLOBAL WARMING” nuts vanish!! ;)

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s because their theory is becoming debunked little by little.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      They are all delusional!

  16. D-dog (Hamilton) says:

    Anyone got a measurement in the downtown holland area as of late?

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I see 5″ on NWS spotter report.

  17. Chip (Holland) says:

    I am in north Holland near Lake Mac and would say 4″ to 5″. Wonder how much more?

  18. John says:

    00Z NAM now has a more northwest flow lake effect snow for next Wednesday-Thursday here’s hoping! :)

  19. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Finally it looks like the bands are becoming a bit better organized down this way. Probably because the wind seems to have veered just a tad more northerly over the past hr. NWS did mentioned earlier about things getting better organized into late evening hrs. Snowing harder now than it has all day. I might actually reach the 1 inch mark here shortly! http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  20. Jack says:

    Currently Here in N.E. It is a ” BONE-CHILLING”… 14 degrees !!!!! BRR…. Gotta thicken Up my Blood Now, Instead of Slowly I Guess …stay Cued for A ” SUNNY SUNDAY??

      1. Jack says:

        nawww , Just OLD …. And it Takes the OLE Body and it’s Blood TIME to Thicken Up, as WINTER TEMPS. Set IN ! Stay Cued… Lol…. ;-) .

        1. Brian (Grandville) says:

          I have frost on the inside of the slider already, haven’t seen that earlier than mid December, its cold!

        2. Jack says:

          Yes, Sir . As thee old saying goes…. ” it’s Colder than a Witches ?, In a Iron BRA” !!! Lol…. Stay Cued for Kent County’s First Decent Accumulaing SNOW …Last Week of NOV…. ;-)

        3. GunLakeDeb says:

          I agree, Jack – this weather has seemed “extra-cold” for some reason (and I LIKE cold weather)

          Of course, it’s 10 degrees and I’m looking at a lake that froze overnight – so it’s not like it’s balmy out there….

  21. John says:

    Finally starting to get some heavier snow showers!

  22. John says:

    Snowing pretty good right now! Starting to accumulate more!

    1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      Be nice to know where you are at :)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Location people!

  23. INDY says:

    13* out thee YARDofBRICKS wow winter is cold this year!!! INDYY

  24. Brad (Van Buren) says:

    Look like my total is about 3-4″ from this so far. Not too bad for a pre-thanksgiving snow. As much as I love snow, it could have held off until AFTER thanksgiving :) but I did get new tires on my truck Thursday.

  25. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready for a ROCKING December people! If you love COLD and SNOW you will be in for a treat and if don’t like cold and snow you may want to move to FL or Flint, MI for the winter!

  26. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Hopefully we can get a wnw,w, or sw flow next week so other areas get in on the action.

  27. Dan says:

    Snow and cold! BRING IT ON. I left this morning for work and the car thermometer read 16 degrees. Winds have let up since yesterday. Do we get in on the snow forecasted for tomorrow? I hope so and I hope the estimates are under done! To quote a lyric from a fantastic Band, “LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL” just be careful driving! (location 84th and 131)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The preliminary RDB modle shows 1 inch for GR and 3 inches for Muskegon!

  28. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    We ended up with 6″ here. Looking at the 06Z model runs, looks like a 1-3″ event down here, but wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a 2-4″ in the SW flow counties for Monday…perhaps a few locales may see a bit more. Lake enhanced snow seems to often be under cut by the models. As for later in the week, that storm heading up the east coast will keep our winds mostly north, which means a big time snow for the Northern Indiana counties. Doesn’t look like much for anyone else. No big storms on the horizon.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      The NWS has been downplaying the Monday event…don’t know why. But then, they usually do that with SW flow events. Marino seems to be one of the few who gets SW flow. Here’s hoping to some good snows tomorrow!

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      It is still too early to predict the wind direction this far in advance. The NW flow counties may get hammered again!

  29. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Well this lake effect event was a complete dud for me anyhow. Nice to see that some of you got hit though. Barely an inch, if that, here. Brings my seasonal total to like 6 or 7 inches. Time to start looking forward to this week’s snow chances. That Weds-Thanksgiving day event has some real potential down this way if the winds can stay northwest enough instead of going due north or northeast.

  30. Dan says:

    Michael, What event are you seeing? Looks dry and cold here from Wednesday and into Thanksgiving weekend. I hope you are right and we get a white Thanksgiving!

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      The models are advertising a potentially significant lake effect event mid week along the immediate lakehore down here into Berrien county & northwest Indiana. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ077&warncounty=MIC021&firewxzone=MIZ077&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UpIGt-LwnoY also see…. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en

  31. yooper4021 says:

    Tie for a record low maximum temp in Marquette yesterday (16 degrees)


    1. yooper4021 says:

      Sorry, that link doesn’t work for some reason. Here’s the info from Marquette NWS office:

      836 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013


      DEGREES SET IN 1970.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It must be due to global warming. Right?

  32. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Bill, how much snow are you expecting for tomorrow? 1-3 inches is a pretty big difference, so are you leaning toward the lower or higher amounts?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The 1-3 inch prediction makes perfect sense to me. GR will be getting about and inch and places along the lake shore, like Muskegon will be getting closer to 3 inches, due to the Southwest flow lake effect!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      1-3 is a standard forecast and is pretty specific.

  33. DF (SE Mich) says:

    How did A2 get 1.5″ while Muskegon still only 0.7″?

  34. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    The band sat off the coast for 24 hours…urgh. We probably have about an inch or so around here.

    1. Todd in Nunica says:

      Yea I didn’t even see that much when I checked accounts, maybe if I measured in the grass, the lots, 1/2 at most, maybe not even that much, still see the grass.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Did you get any in Nunica?

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Did you get any in Nunica?

        We may get SW flow tomorrow. I hope so!

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          yea we got about the same here as in Spring Lake (in town)

          Yea Dont want to think about the sw flow…..lol at least its coming early (as in not over night) seems like a day snow and fairly quick. But yea, some of the biggest and baddest snows of any given year are sw flows……..and when it does hit big time (they dont all but when they do its missed) they play out the EXACT same way……

          it will start to snow……..they will issue (or may already have issued an advisory and its usually for 1-2 or 1-3″)…at 5″ if they have not already they will issue an advisory, at that time they will say 2-5 or 3-6″…..at 8″ they will issue a warning and say 5-8″ +

          Typical weather rock forecasting… THEN as it happens many times, a single….”minor” sw flow event could wind up being muskegons largest single snow event of the year.

          In fact I remember few years back it was like 14″ and all started out as a 1-2″ forecast…….

          So yea been there done that…I always watch the sw flows.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha…I have noticed that…SW flow is often overlooked by models AND meteorologists. Perhaps because it is so specific to a small area? Not many places in the world can claim this phenomenon. I remember you saying in the past that you dread the events…because they just dump snow. It seems to happen a couple times each winter. You’ve lived here much longer than me…how often would you guess they happen?

          I firmly believe Muskegon has the high snowfall average it does due,to SW lake enhanced snows. Every winter I’ve been here we get one that dumps over a foot in a very short period of,time.

        3. Todd In Nunica says:

          We seems to get 2-3 per year on average, it just seems when its the “HOLY CRAP you forecast 2″ and we got 10″ it always seems to be SW flow events. Alot like the first dump the SW counties got earlier this month, when they forecast a few inches and they got 17…lol

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Ditto here…. double urgh.

  35. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    I cleared the driveway, and the snow picked up. The lake effect won’t die…not snowing hard by any means, but a nice light snow with large flakes for the last couple hours. 12z NAM gives the SW flow counties at least advisory type snow tomorrow and about 1-3″ this week for most of the lower peninsula.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Really? I didn’t see advis. Type snows…could you give me that link?

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Oh yeah…I just checked. It hadn’t updated. Sweet! Looks like 3 to 4 inches for the Muskegon area…and that’s not even considering the models usually downplay the amounts.

  36. kevin. w says:

    In this type of pattern I could see blizzards and icestorms coming from February through April. We can’t even tap the gulf of Mexico in this kind of pattern with a northwest limited moisture pattern. So not much system snow just lake effect until further notice. Oh well.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      For most areas it looks just cold and dry for a while. In areas that do not get in on a NNW to NW lake effect snow event there may not be much snow at all.
      But what makes you think that in “this” pattern that there would be blizzards and ice storms in February to April??? There is no way to guess what type of pattern that we will be in at that time.

    2. John says:

      He’s just making a guess SlimJim! Nothing wrong with that!

  37. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I had a very cold low of 14° here overnight and a dusting of snow. While cold its still nothing like the cold that happened back at this time in 1950 on November 24th 1950 GR had a high temp of only 11 and bitter cold low of -9° and some time before dawn on November 25th 1950 the temp fell to -10° here in GR that was by far the coldest two low temps for GR in the month of November. The odd part of that extreme cold was that on November 1st GR set its record warmest day on record when the temp reached 81°

    1. Mike M. says:

      That made me look up extreme temperature swings…

      The world Record for Extreme Temperatures changes are:
      The greatest temperature change in 24 hours occurred in Loma, MT. on January 15, 1972. The temperature rose exactly 103 degrees, from -54 degrees Fahrenheit to 49 degrees. This is the world record for a 24—hour temperature change.
      Other Extreme Temperature Changes
      In 24 hours:
      100°F, Browing, Mt., Jan. 23–24, 1916, from 44°F to –56°F.
      In 12 hours:
      84°F, Fairfield, Mt., Dec. 24, 1924, from 63°F at noon to –21°F at midnight.
      In 2 hours:
      62°F, Rapid City, SD., Jan. 12, 1911, from 49°F at 6:00 A.M. to –13°F at 8:00 A.M.
      In 27 minutes:
      58°F, Spearfish, S.D., Jan. 22, 1943, from 54°F at 9:00 A.M. to –4°F at 9:27 A.M.
      In 15 minutes:
      47°F, Rapid City, S.D., Jan. 10, 1911, from 55°F at 7:00 A.M. to 8°F at 7:15 A.M.
      Pretty neat!

  38. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We will be getting hammered in December. We will be seeing lake effect snow, plenty of Alberta clippers and yes we will be seeing at least one or two synoptic SNOW storms! Get ready!

  39. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    What we need is a Lake Superior Low that sits and pumps in moisture and light west winds off of Lake Michigan. Then we’d be in business!

  40. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looking ahead the next week and more look cold and dry in our area while there may be some snow with a couple of clipper type systems that may come down (remember its only November) and even with some of the clippers systems it can get warm enough on the front side to produce rain instead of snow. And if we stay in a NNW to even a NW flow while the lake shore areas could see snow inland areas would not see much if any. The first chance of any big systems affecting our area might not happen until December 8th to 12th and that system may be too far to the east yet… But remember the first few times (and more) when it dose snow ever one will have to relearn how to drive on ice and snow. And it looks like the ground will be colder then usual for our first snow fall and that means the roads could become snow covered quickly.

    1. John says:

      We’re going to get SW flow lake effect Monday-Tuesday!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Did you say the week of the 8th? Imagine that – The RDB has been showing a system snow during that week for quite a while now! Bring it on!

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      We had a heavy burst of snow in the Muskegon area yesterday that covered the roads. They were awful, especially at intersections. Even when the snow began to melt, it jus froze up on the roads. I was coming to a stop out of a parking lot and my car just kept sliding. Thank God the person coming down the road was able to switch to the left lane or I would have been clobbered. It is not just drivers, but also the road crews need to be refreshed. They came out after people were sliding all over.

  41. John says:

    The NAM keeps upping amounts for tomorrow thru Tuesday in SW flow areas! Yay! :) keep it up!

  42. John says:

    The GFS is giving Ludington up to 6″ of snow tomorrow thru Tuesday! Hope those amounts continue to move more to the south! Right now though it looks as if my area is going to get 3-4″ but again that keeps being bumped up so we could end up with more! :)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Well some of Ludington’s is probably from yet ANOTHER north-oriented lake effect event…

      1. John says:

        Don’t worry well still get 3-4″ that’s enough to make me happy I think it will make you happy too! :) and if we end up getting more snow from tomorrow system on top of the SW flow lake effect we could end up getting more snow than models are predicting!

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Well usually they work hand in hand. I don’t think there will be much SW lake effect, but SW lake enhanced. Usually lake effect is the result of colder air moving over the lake, while lake enhanced involves more moisture being picked up by the disturbance. Either way, it is SNOW! :)

    1. John says:

      It keeps being upped! :) I’m thinking 3-5″ is likely! So that would be advisory type snows! :)

  43. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS gives us a big rain storm out to 10 days. A lot of time for that to change.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Don’t bring it.

    2. John says:

      We all know how the GFS is I wouldn’t even plan on that happening!

  44. Sprites(Holland) says:

    Ended up with around 7″ NW side of Holland.

  45. John says:

    I do not agree with the 12Z GFS at all! It has suddenly decided to change its mind on the lake effect for tomorrow night, it doesn’t have any lake effect for Muskegon at all, which is not correct!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It is pretty typical that once the NAM jumps on board, the GFS goes the opposite direction. It never fails with these two models. The GFS still shows snow, just not as much as it was.

      1. John says:

        Would you trust the nam or GFS better?

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Neither. Haha. I would trust the NAM more as we get closer and closer to an event.

        2. John says:

          So in other words in this case you would trust the NAM more because we are close to the event?

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yes. Definitely.

        4. John says:

          Okay that makes me feel better! The GFS has been showing this trend for the last few days up until now so I have my doubts that it won’t happen! I’m still thinking 3-5″ seems likely!

  46. John says:

    It just seems to me with another artic blast coming tomorrow and a southwest flow we would get some SW flow lake effect, so I’m not siding with the GFS on this one!

  47. kevin. w says:

    I was just saying from earlier slim that were just in a dry northwest flow pattern and was just making a goofy statement that it may take forever (Feb/April) for us to get any big storms. This pattern is very boring and personally really don’t think this is going to change much unless we get a huge storm to come out of the pacific to change the pattern. Just don’t know much at this point and this kinda pattern is more typical in late January than November. Any thoughts anyone. :)

    1. Scott says:

      Kevin, you actually might be on to something with increased storm activity in Feb-April, and that’s because it’s a pattern I have seen here for many decades that’s happened before.

      I’ve talked before here about the high snow-pack to our north. Currently, Asian/Canadian snow-pack is incredible, and forecast to get deeper. This will serve to only increase the foothold of cold air and snow over North America. This will only pull down colder air behind the system which may increase Lake Effect chances, especially in W/NW flow areas. This increases our chance now of being under the influence of high pressure, and storm tracks to the south. However, this is dependent on how much south they are, and that makes the difference between dry and cold and cool/cold and snowy.

      What usually starts to happen to bring in the storms should likely happen in Feb-April. Warm and more humid type air from the Gulf will begin to build in the deep south with increasing sun angle, and with all the snow-pack that undoubtedly will remain in the North-lands, Canada, and Asia, that won’t be rooted out any time soon. What will happen, I think, is that this will cause strong oscillation and amplification of the Northern Jet – which likely will phase at least a couple of times with the southern Jet creating a strong baroclinic zone, which usually leads to the creation of strong and deep low pressure areas.I don’t think it’s a question of IF these will form in Feb-Mar. I think it’s a question of where. And that’s going to make all the difference in the world for us. If this happens to our south, lots of synoptic snow/lake effect. If it happens to our west, wet and milder followed by snow and cold oscillations. It it happens well to our south, cold and dry with LES chances.

      So although it’s really too early and too cumbersome (as well as inaccurate) to try to guess now, signs are very strong at least to me that it will be a stormy Feb-Apr (with equal chances I think of a stormy January) due to significant differentials in pressure and temperature due to deep snowpack, strong canadian air, a probable lower latitude jet stream, and expected seasonal change.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Yep I’m with you on that and glad you typed than me, but all very good points that I think hit this winter forecast.

  48. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We only received a dusting yesterday, and a dusting so far today. My aunt in Bloomingdale said they had several inches yesterday. However, I’m not sure how much they ended up with.

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