Snow Thursday AM and Cold BLAST Coming

November 27th, 2013 at 12:53 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

TVC snow NE Grand Traverse Co.  Bluegill (Greg)   gfs_namer_288_1000_500_thick The picture is from “bluegill” in NE Traverse City, where he’s had a foot of new snow and 32″ for the month so far.  Ed also reported 10″ of new snow in Coloma (Berrien Co.).  We’ve had reports of up to 15″ of snow in Berrien County.  The models are similar with lake-enhanced snow late tonight and tomorrow thru midday with an average of 2-3″ for Kent Co. and 3-6″ for the lakeshore from Grand Haven to the north.  You may see an inch along I-94 and maybe 1/2″ at the Indiana border.  This is SW flow, so if you’re downwind from Lake Michigan with a SW flow, expect shovelable snow.  On the right side, we have the GFS model for the morning of Dec. 9th.  It has the thickness at 498 in G.R. !!  I know the GFS often overdoes cold outbreaks in the fall, but the Euro looks cold, too.  A 498 thickness would mean temperatures around 10-15 with most of the area getting steady lake-effect snow with a WNW wind.  That would be quite fluffy, light snow at those temperatures.  If there’s any snow on the ground, Milwaukee and Chicago could be flirting with a low near zero.   The month of December looks chilly for most of the country, and maybe 2-3 degrees colder than average for Michigan.  Dr. Ryan Maue tweets:  “Looking forward to European models for 12z — dust off record books for Arctic cold blast?”  Joe Bastardi tweets:  “GFS has temps close to 40 below normal in northern plains now morning Dec 8 huge area almost all US 8 or more below normal”.    Winter rules in Decemberrrrrr!

Live chat with meteorologists this PM around 3-3:30:   http://www.woodtv.com/weather/weather-chat

99 Responses to “Snow Thursday AM and Cold BLAST Coming”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Contrast that with Accuweather: currently showing no major cold for the entire month of December.

    1. dylan says:

      Screw Accuweather!!!! Nobody trusts them anyways dude!!!! Why do you have to be all groughy dude just cause Winter is here!??? If you don’t like it…leave Michigan!!! But seriously dude…stop being such a “MISTER GWUMPY GILLS!!!!”

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        It was sarcasm. I don’t like Accuweather.

      2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Dylan is dog crap! Dude!

    2. John says:

      Travis why do you look at Accuweather their 99.5% wrong all the time! Anyway look at the models, not showing much in the way of any warmth thru the middle of December!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        That was for DF who loves Acculess if you haven’t been reading the blog.

        Like always, the actual temperatures will probably fall in the middle of both outliers.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Lol, never once have I said I love accuweather. Nice try!

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Acculess 1 – WhateverTrends 0

      Next point awarded December 16. MSU should be on their way to the Rose Bowl hopefully!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You guys can not speak reason and logic to Travis. It is futile due to his sickness!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Pretty funny you talking about logic of which you have none. Seek help and increase your meds.

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I think you forgot about the million points WeatherTrends won before your “contest” began. Talk about cheery picking your starting point ;)

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I will give trends points when it deserves it. The battle between the guess machines.

    4. Jack says:

      Sure Travis, and ” There Will Be ” Free BEER” in ( Oakland County)…….. Tomorrow ???!!!!!!! Lol….. Stay Cued !! ;-)

  2. Sandy ( Hudsonville) says:

    Enjoying the bright sun & crispness in the air today! The white snow looks so pretty. I have been reading about the “cold temps” coming in December. Sounds like winter to me. Happy Thanksgiving Bill! & all the weather bloggers.

  3. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Sunny here. So hard to get lake snow here without a strong NW to WNW wind. It’s rare the band makes it this far inland. All depends on where you are. We’ve had the ground dusted multiple times in late October and now through November. Still haven’t covered the grass. If the storm track or available moisture would have there we would have a decent amount of snow. The cold air is in place. Accuweather doesn’t update very often. It’ll say one thing for several days and then change completely out of nowhere. They are one of many places I check for forecasts. We’ll see. Hoping for cold!

  4. dylan says:

    WOOOOHOOOOOO…keeping fingers crossed for a CRAZY COLD AND SNOWY December!!!!!!!! Hopefully we get a BLIZZARD for December 8th-10th!!!!! :) MUAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  5. Jack says:

    A ” White Thanksgiving”……. Just as The JEM Model said SOOO Months AGO !!!! ( in my best ELVIS Voice)……Thank-you, Thank-ya Very MUCH!!!! ;-)

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Nice call Jack!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The JEM is on the money again! ROCK N ROLL baby!

  6. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    hopefully roads don’t get too slick! Lots of Michigan drivers traveling + slick conditions = disaster!

  7. John says:

    12Z GFS is starting to look a little colder with the December 4-5 system, but boy does it give us some really cold air around the 9th with some major lake effect possible as Bill stated about WNW flow would favor almost everyone west of 131! :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Lets see SNOW and COLD the week of the 8th! Bring it baby!

  8. Yup (Grandville) says:

    I recall someone stating that there were maps showing what areas were favored for LES dependent on flow direction. Can anyone show me a link to those maps? I’ve been searching but have come up empty.

    Thanks!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Thanks John, I was looking for that :)

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Nice useful map John. Remember that there is more to lake effect then just wind direction. Also there can be times when the wind speed can be too fast and the over lake time too short and thus little lake effect. Also another issue can be air that is too dry and at times air that is too cold. When the air it too cold you do get lake effect but small flak size and thus lower snow totals.
        SlimJim

        1. John says:

          Yep exactly right! Lake effect snow is probably the hardest thing to forecast because the bands set up in different places, so while one area gets a foot 5 miles east of their could only get 2 inches!

      3. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Thanks John!!!

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    How can this be? Travis as usual is calling for above average temperatures for December. Let’s see who should we beleive Travis or Bill? Travis spews garbage all day and Bill give us facts! You decide!

    1. SW Kent says:

      Rocky, please settle down and keep it to the weather.
      No one on here wants to here you go off on people.
      Thank you.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        SW Kent, if you or anyone else does not like my comment, please do not read them! This is not rocket science – get a grip!

        1. Jeffrey DeGraft says:

          If this comment board were good we could mute Rocky, Indy, Mike and the rest of the bullying losers from the basement who spend the entire time making people very uncomfortable. Creeps.

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      You also spew garbage more so then anyone else on here.

      1. Justin (Grand Haven) says:

        That’s true! ^

  10. John says:

    Here’s the afternoon aviation update

    .AVIATION…(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
    ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    MAIN ISSUES FOR THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT TRENDS AND THEN
    SNOW TRENDS FOR THU AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.

    BAND OF LAKE EFFECT HAS MOVED WEST OF ALL THE TERMINALS AND OVER
    THE ERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FLOW FROM NORTH. SOME
    DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED OVER INLAND AREAS…MORE CONCENTRATED
    EAST OF U.S.-131. THIS WAVE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR…WHICH HAS NOW
    LIFTED TO MAINLY ALL VFR NOW. WE EXPECT THIS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

    FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING…AND
    EVENTUALLY FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LAKE
    SNOW BAND INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF YET MODERATE BURST OF
    SNOW TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU
    MORNING WITH THE HIGHER IMPACT AT WRN TERMINALS. SOME IFR WILL BE
    POSSIBLE IN THIS BURST ESPECIALLY WEST BEFORE IT BREAKS UP.

    SNOW WILL DEVELOP THEN AT KMKG AND KGRR AND AREAS NORTH THU
    MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LAKE MICHIGAN
    WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THIS SNOW. THIS SHOULD BRING SOLID IFR
    CONDITIONS AND LOWER TO KMKG AND AREAS NORTH INTO EARLY THU
    AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 18Z THU AS THE
    SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.

    1. John says:

      It looks like the flow is already beginning to turn slightly to the northwest that should continue through the rest of the afternoon into evening!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I noticed that too, John. It’s already starting to turn as you watch radar. It was sunny for a couple hours, and now we just had a nice snow shower. The NWS makes it sound like we might get some good snow from this band before it dies down and the clipper moves in.

        I was in Grand Haven today, and was surprised to see how much grass was showing there in comparison to here, and especially in comparison to where I live in Spring Lake Township.

  11. Jack says:

    AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT…ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING  
    ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN STARTING TOWARD  
    DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE  
    MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE  
    THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF  
    GRAND RAPIDS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO.  

  12. DF (SE Mich) says:

    That is some ridiculously cold air on GFS for the entire US.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    My guess is it will moderate from that. Who knows though, maybe it will get colder. ;)

    1. John says:

      It is and some pretty good lake effect although as SlimJim said above the snowflakes could be smaller in size with as cold as it could be so maybe less in the way of accumulations!

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      My guess it would warm up as we get closer but we shall see.
      SlimJim

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I post this web cam site from time to time, I like the site as it has several locations and it shows places that I along with others have been. Pease note the cam from Grand Marais is being shot thru a window that makes it look more hazy then it is, Also note the inland lake in the Northwoods Resort is already ice covered

    http://www.exploremunising.com/weather.html

    SlimJim

  14. Scott says:

    Afternoon weather friends!

    Yup, excited about the *potential* of a pretty major cold snap coming up. I’m not sold on it yet – but the possibility plus frequent lake events is giving me some weather things to hope for. So I’ve got some charting to do this evening!

    As far as where I am in E. Van Buren County. The snow band did come inland some last night,and gave us some light snow-shower and flurry activity. Only saw about perhaps 1/10th to 1/4″ inch of accumulative snow. The band retreated back., leaving mostly sunny skies which quickly became partly to mostly cloudy, which it’s remained for the rest of the day. Also, with sunshine, we’ve had some rooftop snowmelt. The band just literally “brushed” us.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      How much snow do you have there? I’m guessing you’re somewhere around Paw Paw?

      1. Scott says:

        Had about 2.3″ and is now down to a little over an inch or so.

  15. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Check out the new discussion! I love how they say “1 to 3 inch and 6 inch”…lol
    John, it looks like we’re prime for some good snow!!! Bring it!

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=afd&issuedby=grr

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Todd (in Nunica), read the second paragraph. This sounds like one of those possible situations where we get a convergence band and get DUMPED on in this area.

  16. John says:

    Lake effect snow advisory for Ottawa and Muskegon counties, winter weather advisory for Kent, Newaygo, lake counties northeastward for tomorrow

    Lake effect snow advisory

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    314 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    MIZ050-056-064-280415-
    /O.EXB.KGRR.LE.Y.0012.131128T0600Z-131129T0000Z/
    MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MUSKEGON…JENISON…HOLLAND
    314 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    …LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
    THURSDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
    THURSDAY.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER…

    * EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

    * BRIEFLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES…UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR…ARE
    POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

    * SNOW WILL BE DRY AND LIGHT.

    IMPACTS…

    * ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

    * VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO ONLY A FEW CAR LENGTHS AT TIMES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    * ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL…ROAD CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE
    QUICKLY!

    * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT
    http://WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.

    &&

    Winter weather advisory

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    314 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    MIZ038>040-044>046-051-057-280415-
    /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0015.131128T0600Z-131129T0000Z/
    LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MONTCALM-KENT-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BALDWIN…REED CITY…CLARE…FREMONT…
    BIG RAPIDS…MOUNT PLEASANT…GREENVILLE…GRAND RAPIDS
    314 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
    THURSDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
    THURSDAY.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER…

    * EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

    * SNOW WILL BE DRY AND LIGHT.

    IMPACTS…

    * SOME ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO
    TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW.

    &&

    $$

  17. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Well what do you know? The first WWA for Kent County this winter! A white Thanksgiving! The temoeratures are GREAT today and the snow forecast for tonight and Thursday is even better! Who knew? Jack and the JEM model and the IWS were all over it!!!

    1. Jack says:

      True….DAT…Rocky !!!! Stay cued, for The JEM Model prediction of The First Synoptic Snow Storm !! ;-)

  18. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Look at this picture of the snow from one of my friends in Niles, MI(Berrien County). I’m still waiting to hear from him how much snow they have.

    https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1480634_692630654095167_248015647_n.jpg

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      NICE!

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      He said there is anywhere from 4-10″ depending on the area in the Niles area.

  19. John says:

    Seems at this point the NWS is thinking this is going to be mainly a lakeshore event with some of the snow moving inland dropping less snow than at lakeshore areas

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      John,

      This sounds like if it comes together the right way, we could get pounded tomorrow. If we can get the lake effect band to continue while the system is moving in, it creates great instability and it just dumps. Muskegon gets them a couple times each winter. By far, my favorite part of the climate here!

      1. John says:

        Would this be for the whole county? My friends live in the northern portion of the county and they have been wondering how much they’ll get?

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          In the years I’ve been here, the southern 1/2 of the county and from about Maple Island Rd. westward seem to get hit the hardest when it comes to SW flow lake enhanced snowfall.

        2. John says:

          It just seems with a SW flow the whole county would get hit, maybe not

          Thank you! :)

  20. Brad says:

    Since these climate models are really nefarious plots by socialist scientists to advance the agenda of climate alarmists, shouldn’t they “underdo” the cold predictions in fall?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Let’s check out how those climate models have been doing: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg

      Dr. Judith Curry, head of Climate Science at Georgia Tech says the climate models are “deeply flawed”.

  21. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    Kent county is in a advisory, hopefully the snow sneeks just a little more east and gives Ionia at least a inch or two… I would love to hunt in the snow tomorrow, along with enjoying a great meal.

    1. Jack says:

      Good Luck, with a “BUCK” & Happy Thanksgiving !! Jeff….stay Cued…

      1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

        Thanks Jack

  22. Elizabeth says:

    Am I the only one who is a bit bummed? If this dumps many folks won’t make their family dinners and/or others will be pulled from family to help clear the roads. Wish it were a day earlier or later myself.

  23. John says:

    The flow is beginning to turn more northwest in Oceana county!

  24. Jen in Middleville says:

    I wish we could put our newly acquired snow blower for the lawn tractor to use. Just cold in middleville. :’(

  25. Cort S. says:

    Brrrrr!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    I think you guys can look forward to this future blob cold air drifting eastward over the next week.

    1. Jack says:

      Nice, Cort thanks…hey…Ya Coming Home to M.I. For The Holidays ? STAYIN Cued.. ;-)

      1. Cort S. says:

        No sir, staying in Utah this year!

        1. Jack says:

          Bummer…. :-( Have a Terrific Thanksgiving Cort !!! God Bless U..and, stay cued… ;-)

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Cort, Utah man!

    2. kln32muskegon says:

      Cort always appreciate your posts

  26. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Check this out guys. They are predicting a COLD and SNOWY winter for West MI! Who knew?

    http://www.midwestweather.org/

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I was expecting a song by the “Who”

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Who? Who’s on First…LOL

        2. Jack says:

          Ha…ha… Got cha…Lol.. Have a Blessed Thanksgiving !!! Stay Cued…

  27. John says:

    Of course Acculess weather is saying that the system tomorrow is going to be a moisture starved system with nothing more than a coating! Another way to prove they are Acculess!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Nothing has been proven yet……

      1. John says:

        Well that is true but tomorrow it will be! Especially up here in Muskegon with a southwest flow enhancement! :)

  28. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Anyone have a link for the snow overlay maps.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, refer to the link that I just posted and click on the “Computer Snow Output” tab!

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Where is it?

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Nevermind.

  29. John says:

    John Dee’s 5-10 day outlook mentions the possibility of a significant LES event here in Lower Michigan! :)

    5-10 DAY FORECAST:

    As we head through next week, the forecast still gets quite interesting by the second half of the week. The models are in OK agreement on the large scale upper air features, but do differ fairly meaningfully on the smaller scale atmospheric features.

    The bottom line is that it looks like the first half of next week will be fairly quiet. Then as we get to the middle of the week, an area of low pressure looks to get organized in the Plains and then slowly track into the Midwest by the end of the week.

    The models differ on the strength, track and some other features to the low, so the details to the forecast are still up for grabs, but it looks like the SE 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the Midwest would see a warm up and rains occur for most of the storm, with things potentially cold enough for it to be snow in the north and west. Much of the Northwoods may actually see the precip start as snow, switch to rain and then back to snow before ending.

    There are ideas that a dump of cold air on the back side of this system would produce some significant LES for the UP and N. Lower MI.

    So, it is still too early in the game to be overly confident on the details, but confidence is growing that the second half of next week and following weekend could be very interesting across the northern and NW Midwest.

    1. John says:

      Whoops never mind just saw that it was for northern lower michigan! My bad!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Haha, so close! Wishful thinking though :p

  30. fixxxer says:

    Too damn cold for november. I hope this winter is short and we get a early spring.

    1. Jack says:

      Well….well…a “Fix”ture of Bills Blog is Back Again !! Did We Miss Ya FIX..? ……stay Cued… Lol…. ;-)

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      You’re not the only one!

  31. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The temperatures were fantastic today and we are headed for a COLD and SNOWY Winter! Get ready to enjoy Winter because warm Spring weather is about 5 months away!!! I love it!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      That looks awesome! Hopefully it holds true :)

  32. arcturus says:

    Woohoo rain next week! 2″ of snow (based on latest forecast) in GR metro area and everyone gets excited. Guess that shows how sparse it’s been the past few years.

    1. Jack says:

      ” Excited”?? CUE, Warren Zevon::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJefPK_UkdM. Stay Cued….. ;-)

  33. james says:

    Would love a blizzard. First year in gr and the kids r loving the snow so far. We moved from texas so this is a kot for the already..we where hoping for more today as we live in east

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