Advisory – Flood Watch

November 28th, 2013 at 12:37 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  flood muskegon river mecosta county nov. 2013 When was the last time you saw a Flood Watch for an ice jam in West Michigan in November!  “THE MECOSTA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED AN ICE JAM ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER ABOVE ROGERS DAM NEAR 12 MILE RD AND 183RD AVE. APPROXIMATELY 2 FEET OF WATER IS NOW COVERING RIVERSIDE DR.”  WATER IS AS CLOSE AS TEN FEET FROM SOME HOMES.”  (click on picture on the right to enlarge).

The Winter Weather Advisory for Ottawa, Allegan, Muskegon, Oceana and Newaygo Counties until 7 PM.  The NWS says:  “MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TOTAL OF 4 INCHES OR LESS BUT THERE WILL BE LOCAL TOTALS NEAR 7 INCHES”.   Snowfall totals include 3″ in Rockford, up to 5″ in Ottawa Co. and 9″ at Mears in Oceana Co.

MODEL UPDATE:   The 00Z Thurs. evening run of the NAM (Caribou) is in…here’s the forecast snow amounts thru Thurs. night:  Ludington 6.7″, Muskegon 6.4″, Big Rapids 5.4″, Holland 4.4″, Cadillac 3.7″, Grand Rapids 3.4″, Mt. Pleasant 2.3″, Pontiac 1.6″, Jackson and Lansing 1.1″, S. Haven 0.6″ (not including tonight), Kalamazoo 0.4″.

Some snow totals as of 7 PM:  15″ SSE of Spinks Corners (Berrien Co.), 12.5″ Georgetown IN, 12.2″ Buchanan (Berrien Co.), +12″ NE Grand Traverse County,  12″ Berrien Center and Sodus (Berrien Co.), 10″ Coloma (Berrien Co.)  9.3″ Dowagiac (Cass Co. MI), 8″ Pentwater, 7.5″ Edwardsburg (Cass Co, MI), 7.4″ Benton Harbor,  6.5″ South Bend, 6″ Ludington, Niles, and Bangor.  Some of these observations are old and more snow has fallen between the report and the current time.



35 Responses to “Advisory – Flood Watch”

  1. Brian(Grandville) says:

    .AVIATION…(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
    ISSUED AT 727 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

    NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES WITH VFR
    CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. THE SNOW BAND IS OFF SHORE
    AND COMES INLAND NEAR KLWA AND KBEH. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE
    WEST AT WE HEAD TOWARD 06Z AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z. SO…SNOW
    THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE COMING
    INLAND…ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.

    ADDITIONAL SYSTEM RELATED SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OUT OF
    WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND ADD TO THE INLAND MOVING LAKE EFFECT.
    KMKG WILL BE MOST IMPACTED WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM LATE
    TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH VFR/MVFR
    CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. KMKG AND
    KGRR WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW…WITH MUCH LESS SNOW/IMPACT TOWARDS
    KBTL AND KJXN.

    1. Linda says:

      Anyone have report on current conditions along lakeshore just north of Muskegon
      How much snow has fallen
      Is it safe to drive there from GR

  2. John says:

    By the looks of it I can tell the lakeshore counties north of Holland plus western Newaygo and Lake counties could really get hammered tomorrow with as much as 4-6″ of new snow falling! :) it’ll feel good to have big fresh snowflakes falling on a Thanksgiving! :)

  3. Marti B. (SE Grand Rapids) says:

    What about us….and Portage/Kalamazoo where my sister and her family live? Any significant snow coming around here? ;)

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Marti B. Here is PORTAGE ::: Weather for Portage, MI
      23°F | °C Wed Thu Fri Sat

      Clear
      Wind: NW at 10 mph
      Humidity: 63% 34° 19° 30° 19° 32° 21° 34° 28°

      1. Marti B. (SE Grand Rapids) says:

        Thanks Jack! :)

    2. John says:

      Marti it looks like Grand Rapids should receive 2-3″ with this system, K-Zoo for the most part will remain out of this but as the snow band moves inland a quick inch will be possible for K-Zoo. This is going to be a SW flow lake enhanced event meaning everyone north and northwest of Holland to Big Rapids will receive the most snow from this event!

      1. Marti B. (SE Grand Rapids) says:

        Thanks very much John! I like the idea of 2-3 inches of snow around here. Everyone take care and have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving! =)

    3. Jack says:

      Or This::: 1 AM 4 AM 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM 7 PM 10 PM
      Temperature / Dew Point (°F):
      23 / 16

      25 / 14

      21 / 14

      25 / 14

      28 / 14

      30 / 14

      27 / 14

      25 / 14

      Humidity (%):
      70% 65% 71% 62% 54% 51% 58% 64%
      Pressure (in):
      30.24 30.26 30.26 30.27 30.24 30.26 30.35 30.41
      Wind (mph):

      2 mph West
      (270°)

      4 mph SSW
      (202°)

      7 mph South
      (190°)

      10 mph SSW
      (210°)

      10 mph SSW
      (210°)

      8 mph SSW
      (209°)

      6 mph SSW
      (210°)

      5 mph SSW
      (204°)
      Conditions:

      Snow Showers

      Snow Showers

      Chance of Snow

      Chance of Snow

      Chance of Snow

      Chance of Snow

      Chance of Snow

      Chance of Snow
      Probability of Precipitation (%):
      70%
      0.01 in
      80%
      0.00 in
      80%
      0.00 in
      60%
      0.01 in
      50%
      0.01 in
      50%
      0.00 in
      50%
      0.00 in
      40%
      0.01 in
      Cloud Cover (%):
      83% 90% 97% 95% 92% 91% 89% 81%

      1. Marti B. (SE Grand Rapids) says:

        Bill needs to add a “like” sign on this blog…. :)

        1. Jack says:

          Hey Marti B. ” It’s a Small Wolrld Indeed”!!! Do you know WE know each other From my OUR Madison Square Days ! Gospel Choir..ECT. Have a Blessed Thanksgiving Old Friend ! Be safe..GOD BLESS ! And ” Keep Rocking With Flock & Jammin The LAMB” !!!! :-)

  4. John says:

    Finally starting to get my first light snowflakes of the day! :)

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      It looks like the moisture from the clipper is going to interact with the LES that should be moving inland in the next few hours. A white Thanksgiving for many.

      1. John says:

        Yep! Yeah the moisture sure will interact with the snow band moving inland that’s why I think the lakeshore counties north of Holland will see some hefty amounts!

        1. John says:

          And when I mean hefty I mean some good amounts of snow!

  5. John says:

    Those snow bands are defiantly beginning to move eastwards! :)

  6. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    We did probably have about 10-12 inches here total, but with the compacting of this fluffy lake snow, I just measured around 7 on the ground.

    1. John says:

      You happy now ;)

      1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Yep! :-)

      1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Ha, funny!

  7. Cort S. says:

    HRRR model (click here) showing a meso-low spinning up in western Lake Superior tonight.

    1. John says:

      Looks like Muskegon county gets hit hard! :)

  8. John says:

    Look at those snow bands just west of us Matt! Once those move on land I could see us easily picking up inch per hour rates with those! Don’t ya love living close to the lake! :)

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      I remember, was my junior year. Heading to the silverdome that morning was fun.

  9. John says:

    The 00Z NAM is all over with 4″ amounts lol! Still has my area getting 3-4″ tonight and tomorrow! :)

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Oh yeah! Our area is in the hotspot for this one, John. Did you read Bill’s update above. The model he uses shoes us at 6.4 inches.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Shows

    2. John says:

      Yeah I saw but I don’t agree with it, because it gives a small strip from me up to northeastern Muskegon county almost nothing and I completely disagree!

  10. John says:

    Here comes a snow band for me! :)

  11. John says:

    Starting to get some bigger snow flakes here now! It’s just the start to which could be 6″ of new snow by tomorrow night! :)

  12. John says:

    Those snow bands aren’t going anywhere either! :D

  13. Todd In Nunica says:

    Just saw this and thought you guys might like it, an ice disk rotating on the Sheyenne River in North Dakota. Nature is cool!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6PKVsOZoI4

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