Thanksgiving PM Snow

November 28th, 2013 at 12:38 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   8:50PM – Still some flurries out there.  I measured 2.2″ new at my house with a touch shy of 4″ on the ground (southern Alpine Twp.).  It’s light and fluffy and will settle some.  The surface map shows good surface convergence of air over West Michigan right were the flurries are still falling.    That’s helping to lift the air.  .  Check out the webcam at Spring Lake.

See the thread below for the Lake-Effect Snow Warnings/Advisories.  Keep checking back to this thread for these links:  Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan, traffic webcams in G.R. and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations).

Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s current severe wather watches and current mesodiscussions from the Storm Prediction Center.   Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven.

267 Responses to “Thanksgiving PM Snow”

  1. Nick (West Olive/Grand Haven) says:

    I WANT MORE!!! Cleared the driveway this morning with about 5”. Got home from north muskegon and there is at least another 3”. Packed down though around the yard. Great turkeyday snow in my opinion!!!

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I have picked up about 3.5 to 4 inches of SNOW today! The NWS nailed it for my area. They predicted 3 to 5 inches! Good job!

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    A good 2-3 inches here today :)

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It was funny this AM to listen to all of the naysayers that said GR was only getting a dusting to a half inch of SNOW! We are well on our way to a great winter! COLD and SNOW Rocks baby!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I got 1″ last night, and 1″ late this afternoon. It was literally JUST to the NW of me ALL DAY.

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Actually, snowfall has varied a ton in the GR area. South east GR only saw a dusting to an inch while NW GR saw 2-3 inches.

  5. Scott says:

    Anyone mind if I do a little early bird talk on the next Doozie of a storm?

    Obviously a ways out and subject to tremendous change…

    The well advertised large storm is really showing up on models now. The path will change. So will intensity and precip type, but check it out on GFS – nice big grinder of a storm sitting over the Plains. This storm is currently progged (again, take everything with a grain of salt right now) down to 984 mb (very low pressures) with very strong winds and blizzard conditions on the sharp snowy side, and warm with decent low level shear in the warm sector. Of course, need I repeat – we’re in fantasy land with this placement as to where it is and what it will do for the most part. But when an operational model picks up a storm of this intensity and strength this early on, raise your eyebrows and keep an eye on it,

    The good news. The good news is it’s not bound to stay on it’s current course. One way or another, it’s going to be on the move. As we know, it could track farther west (many times strong storms on this path do just that). Or, if the arctic blast is stronger and faster – and the jet dips further, it could just as well track further east, but I’d pretty much say based on historicals it’s not going to stay on it’s same path it’s on now.

    The bad news. There’s more of a chance we’ll stay in the warm sector then get in the cold side of this. Again, this is just an opinion. But for us, I’d want this storm to originate in Texarkana, not the TX/OK Panhandle. We’ve got to get that cold air moving faster and stronger if we want to get in on the cold sector right away.

    The good news. If we don’t get in on the cold sector, and if the Low stays strong as it is progged here and doesn’t open up and become more progressive, we COULD be looking at strong thunderstorm opportunities if we can tap into that moisture. GFS (Ha! Hehehe, yes, I’m going there! It’s thanksgiving night and I’m having a little forecast fun.) Surface dews into the 60s, decent low level directional shear AND strong speed shear – and a strong front moving in could all spell thunderstorms with a decent wind threat, at least, if we stay in the warm sector.

    Again, this is depending on:

    A) The storm stays strong
    B Shear stays in place
    C) 50s/60s Dews are pulled north as fast as progged
    D) Adequate instability
    E) TIMING!

    LONG ways out, but these are the scenarios to watch for in the next few days. Looking at tri-model GEM, GFS, and EMCWF – they all show the storm and they all have it in the same general ball park as it exits the Continental US. So it’s not like it’s a loner model picking it up. We’ve got about a week until the 6th so this could be lots of fun figuring this bad boy out!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      And if we do get a rain event then we still have that possible cold shot around the 8th. This storm will be very interesting indeed, and I can’t wait to track it next week. Hopefully we don’t get an icy mix though, that could be nasty for travelers.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes Nathan, totally hate the ice and mix. Very dangerous.

  6. Scott says:

    Yeah. It’s great talking about these storms as they get closer. Who knows, the thing may totally just fall off the map – but I doubt it. It’s just great fun talking about prospective big storms!

  7. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Models are all over for that storm later next week. 18Z GFS was on board with the European model in driving a monster storm up to our west, giving us a warm up and rain. Now the 00Z has a smaller storm dragging a cold front through, then the next storm passing just south as we are in the cold air with a good chance of snow instead of the big warm up.

  8. Scott says:

    Which is why I made sure to say “Don’t take this with a grain of salt” :)

    As much fun as it is to look at fantasy storms this far out, that’s all they are at this point. Who knows what this will look like at tomorrow’s 00z map! :)

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