YIKES!

December 3rd, 2013 at 1:49 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

gfs_namer_183_1000_500_thick  Click on the image to enlarge.  This is the 183-hour GFS model valid for next Tuesday Night.  Shiverin’ Snowman!  Keep in mind it’s the GFS and the GFS has the tendency to exaggerate cold blasts in the fall and winter in the mid-long term…but if this is anywhere close to being correct…this is brutally cold…with a stiff wind and lake-effect snow for everyone.  The thickness is at 494 and our 850 mb temperature to -25!   The air/lake temperature difference will be very large…however the flake size may be smaller and the fetch a bit shorter with a west wind.  The GFS plot has temperatures during the day Tuesday from 6 to 12 above with a 20 mph west wind!   A temperature of 6 with a 20 mph wind is a wind chill of -14.   If it’s 6 on this side of the lake, it’s probably -5 to -10 in Wisconsin.  The GFS gives G.R. a high of 14 and low of 3 on Weds.  I often go a few degrees above the plot numbers.   The GFS also gives G.R. about 2″ of snow Sun. night into Monday with temperatures peaking around 32 Monday.   The model also has more synoptic snow about 12/16.   .  The European model gives G.R. low-mid 50s briefly Weds. evening and only low 20s for much of the daytime hours on Saturday.  For next Tues. AM, it has a surface temp. of 11 in G.R. with a -21.6C 850 mb. temp. and a thickness of 510 dropping.  Certainly lake-effect snow, but again, there are factors that could limit accums. some.   The Euro. gives G.R. 0.13″ of precipitation Sun. night and Monday.  That should be snow, but could be a freezing rain/snow mix.

147 Responses to “YIKES!”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    On December 3, 2002, Flint had a record low of -8 degrees. The next day, Flint had another record low of -4 degrees.

    So, indeed, it can still get very cold around here this time of year – even with the Great Lakes. Although nothing nearly as cold with system for Michigan it looks like at this time.

  2. Dan says:

    The colder air is coming! Winter will be here this weekend!
    I say it stays cooler. I would think no more temps into the mid 40s or 50s for the better part of the next few months! BRING on the SNOW and COLD!

  3. Redd_Leader (Hamilton) says:

    Kudos Bill, for titling a blog post “YIKES”. I like it.
    Meanwhile, bring on the snow!

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Here are some records for next weeks potential cold snap. For Tuesday the 10th the record coldest 3 maximum temps are 1.(14° 1995) 2). (16° 1977(3.(17° 1917) For Weds day the 11th they are 1. (10° in 1995) 2. (in 15° in 1962) 3. (18° in 1957) and its seems that 18° was the record set in three years (1943,2000 and 1917) is the record for the 12th.
    Now for the record lows on December 10th, 11th and the 12th are …for the 10th 1. (5° in 1977) 2. (6° in both 1932 and 1934) for the 11th 1. (-3° in 1962) 2.(0° in 1945) 3. (+1° in 1977) and for the 12th 1. (-5° in 1958) 2. (-4° in 1962) and 3. (+1 in 1988)
    So if indeed we get that cold it will be either in or very near record territory. My guess it that it will not be as cold as indicated but let see how it plays out.
    SlimJim

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      December can sure have some crazy temps swings!!! I remember back in 1999/2000/2001 (?), we had a new roof installed; and I’m pretty sure it was Dec 9th or 10th, that the workers were just wearing short-sleeved T-shirts because it was so warm out!!!

      Sounds like THIS year we’ll be opting for Extreme Cold Weather gear…. sad that it’s not looking like it’s bringing us much snow… :-(

  5. Muskegon River Fear says:

    Oh boy…I was involved in the flood on the Muskegon in January. Over Thanksgiving the river literally froze before our eyes and the water backed up into my yard…I SO fear this quick cold snap!

  6. Dylan says:

    Very cool!! Yea…ya just never know what will happen a week out…especially in Michigan! lol Hopefully it all holds up and we get an awesome snowstorm out of it!! But not gonna get excited about it yet…I will believe it when we see it! But I am keepin my fingers crossed to be sure!!! :)

  7. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Always good news when Bill says “there are factors that could limit accums. some”. I don’t mind the cold at all, much better to work in than heat. And then keep snowfall at a minimum, perfect.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      That is what was said last year for the January 21-23 lake effect event when temps were in the mid 10′s. I ended up with 16″ in those 3 days, and Allegan had 22″ on the ground by the 23rd. I feel as though lake effect is about as predictable as popup thunderstorms.

  8. Hudsonville Barn Cat says:

    Just a friendly reminder to everyone — keep a close eye on your indoor/outdoor pets, especially those of you who have cats that sneak in and out. These extremely cold temperatures can be absolutely brutal for animals.

    And if you have a dog or cat that is primarily kept outside, consider bringing them inside for a few days.

    1. Jack says:

      “Meow”velous ….Advice !! H.B.Cat !!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Don’t think about helping them “litter”. Take time now to “paws” and think about it. “Iam”s with you there.

        1. Jack says:

          Lol… Funny Stuff Matt ! Weather Wise…We don’t Need a “CAT”astrophy !!! Lol.. ;-) “”"” Stay Cued.

  9. Hey bill whats your take on the lake effect for next week? I’m hearing it could possibly significant possibly a week from now

    1. John says:

      Kyle read above what he said about the cooler temps and lake effect haha! I’m sorry I’m not trying to be rude!

      1. Srry i see it now i thought 183 hours was a few weeks LOL my bad its about a week. that takes us to tuesday with lake effect

  10. Dave in Jenison says:

    How does it look for Saturday afternoon and Grand Valley football.

  11. John says:

    Looks like we could be dealing with widespread dense fog tonight! Be safe! Dense fog is just as bad as a blizzard!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Where did you hear this? From the NWS?

      1. John says:

        They’ve introduced fog to the grids but look at Weather.com and you’re location they say dense fog as well! Still waiting on the afternoon discussion from the NWS but still any widespread fog can be dangerous!

        1. 2-hour delay nathan woot!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          I wouldn’t count on it Kyle! :P

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      It’s been foggy here for a few hours now. Nothing terrible yet, but I live on a hill so it can be clear here, and no visibility a half mile away.

  12. Intellicast is saying a potential significant lake effect event with a due west wind now! sweet!!

    1. With a daytime high of 22 on December 10

    2. John says:

      I think it would mainly be a WNW event but well see! Even with WNW you still will get decent snow amounts in Byron Center! We have to see just how cold it will be though because if it’s too cold the snowflakes could be defined in size meaning less snow!

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        GFS is straight W wind as of right now. Either way W or WNW I would get lake effect.

      2. John says:

        I’m hoping more WNW if it’s due west I will miss out on the majority of it!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          It looks like next week (Monday-Wednesday) will be W winds, but that will probably change like usual. So WNW winds are certainly possible! Either is fine with me :)

  13. kevin. w says:

    Visibility over southern Wisconsin is zero right now and by looking at low levels with very light winds and high moisture could be some very dense fog especially with snow cover around the shore counties.

  14. INDY says:

    BLIZZARD OF COLD COMING!!!! STAY TUNED!! INDYY///

  15. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Jeez, I hope the GFS is COMPLETELY WRONG.

  16. I would have to say its about a 100% chance dense fog advisories will be issued for West Michigan overnight and the adviory will last till 10am like they issued in Wisconsin

    1. John says:

      I wouldn’t say 100% but there’s a chance, the most likely area for an advisory tonight would be the lakeshore counties where snowpack remains so moisture is higher in the lakeshore counties!

  17. Jack says:

    NWS Grand Rapids Latest :
    000
    FXUS63 KGRR 032040
    AFDGRR

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    340 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

    LATEST UPDATE…
    SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

    .SYNOPSIS…
    ISSUED AT 340 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

    A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD
    TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL
    BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
    OCCASIONAL RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE WARM
    FRONT TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN…MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR
    AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.

    THE COLD FRONT FROM THAT DEVELOPING STORM WILL CROSS THE AREA
    AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
    50S WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
    SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE
    SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
    WEEKEND. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR SINCE LATE
    JANUARY OF LAST YEAR.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 340 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

    THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE THE ENDING OF
    THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION EVENT (NOT MUCH REALLY HAPPENING WITH
    THAT)… THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT… THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
    LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (NO BIG DEAL EITHER) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
    INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

    THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TODAY SO THE
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
    BASICALLY A 160 KNOT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH UPSTREAM PART OF
    THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONS AND CANADA HELPS QUICKLY
    DEEPEN A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
    COLORADO. THAT SYSTEM HEADS FOR LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING
    PUSHING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE
    COLD FRONT FOLLOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD
    OF IT ACROSS IN/IL/WI/LK MI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS DECENT
    ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (AS ONE WOULD
    EXPECT WITH A 160 KNOT 300 MB JET HEADING THIS WAY). THE ROAD TEMP
    SENSORS SHOW THE ROUTE 10 ROAD TEMPS RISING TOWARD FREEZING NOW
    AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE AT FREEZING. I EXPECT THE WARM ADVECTION TO
    BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY EVENING SO THAT SHOULD NO
    LONGER BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE AREA OF SHOWERS
    WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BY MIDNIGHT THE
    SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY BE NEAR ROUTE 20 OR SO. WIDESPREAD FOG IS
    EXPECTED BUT IT IS A QUESTION OF JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL GET GIVEN
    THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE.

    WEDNESDAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE QUIET IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING BUT
    THEN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SHOULD
    CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. I DO NOT
    EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY AT THIS POINT.

    BEHIND THE FRONT WE GET THE DRY SLOT THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN AS
    THE COLD AIR COMES IN THE GFS DOES SHOW NEAR SATURATION IS THE DGZ
    THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH
    FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ON THE CYCLONIC
    SIDE OF THE POLAR JET SO I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE MUCH OF A SNOW
    PRODUCER. JUST BREEZY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
    TIME HOURS OF THURSDAY AS THE ASPECT MOST PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO
    NOTICE.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      “Coldest air since late January of last year?”

      So January 2012?

  18. GunLakeDeb says:

    I’m definitely going to have heavy fog, with warmer, moist air flowing over 2.5 square miles of ICE…..

  19. John says:

    It wouldn’t surprise me if there will be some two hour school delays in the morning!

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    LETS REVIEW THE FACTS!

    1. The teleconnectors all point towards a COLD and SNOWY December to remember!
    2. The 6 to 14 day CPC outlook still shows us with below average temperatures and above average precip. Can you say SNOW!
    3. The long range RDB model has consistently shown accumulating SNOW the week of December 8th! Mark it down and take it to the bank!
    4. We will be seeing some serious lake effect SNOW next week – possibly Blizzard warning criteria!
    5. We will be having a white Christmas this year!
    6. Many experts are predicting above normal snowfall for West MI this year!
    7. Bill rocks!
    8. COLD and SNOW rules!
    http://www.midwestweather.org/2013/11/updated-final-midwest-winter-forecast.html

    1. bnoppe says:

      FACTS
      1. IT WILL SNOW THIS WINTER
      2. IT WILL BE COLD THIS WINTER
      3. BILL HAS THE BEST MUSTACHE ON TV

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        All truths, but Aaron Rodgers is giving him a run for his money.

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          I agree with number 7!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Way to go out a limb!

    2. Jack says:

      Yooo Rocky…. RDB is Looking like it may Get it’s First “Bulls”eye ( wink,wink,) of the Winter Season !! Good Call ROCKster !!! Stay Cued….. JEM model Updates & Cues are on The WAAAYYY…. ;-)

  21. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Well, doesn’t this look familiar… “smacks head”

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes that does look familiar, however this map is not the main event! The main event will begin next Monday! Get ready for winter people! Rock N Roll will never die!

    2. John says:

      This is the NAM Matt which is just as bad as the GFS don’t even be disappointed on this one!

    3. John (Holland) says:

      The bubble is in full effect.

  22. INDY says:

    WINTER STORM WATCHS COMING THURSDAY STAY TUNED!!! INDYY…..

    1. spoon says:

      You’re delusional

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Well well look who cannot help himself!

      2. Jack says:

        spoon….Still Looking for Your Perfect ” DISH”??? http://behance.vo.llnwd.net/profiles/59901/projects/63731/599011204903903.jpg. LOLOLOL ….Stay Cued spoon.. ;-)

  23. kevin. w says:

    I think the defense will be strong in the North Atlantic to give us real cold and lots of snow by looking at some newer data coming in now and the offense will be strong coming out of the southwest to give the midwest/great lakes a good hard winter…FOR A CHANGE.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Nice sports analogy. Keep the good news rolling! All of the momentum is on our side, so sit back and enjoy the show!

  24. kevin. w says:

    Also was hearing from a CNN weathercaster today and that the gulf is warmer than average due to no hurricanes in that area. He stated that one big storm going up toward the midwest will be able to tap alot of energy for a massive snowstorm sometime over the winter as the gulf of Mexico temperatures are more than 10 degrees warmer. Lots of energy down south, hopefully any thunderstorms won’t rob the transport further north this winter.

  25. Dylan says:

    Bill just said that next Tuesday will be MORE THAN 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE NEXT TUESDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 15 degrees!!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes and add that with the 20 MPH West winds over the lake and what will we get? Who knew?

      1. Jack says:

        RDB …DID!!!!!! :-)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          ROCK ON baby!

  26. John says:

    Visibilty is only a quarter mile in Milwaukee right now! That’s heading our way later this evening and tonight! Be careful when traveling tonight in lower visibilties!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I have swim practice soon, maybe it’s canceled?

      1. John says:

        Tonight? If so I doubt it! The worst visibilties will come after 10pm and last thru late morning tomorrow morning!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Well it wasn’t canceled! And you are right, the visibilities are just starting to worsen right now.

  27. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Don’t worry Bill. Travis has been promising that there is nothing too cold in our future.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Amazing isn’t it! It’s called a global warming sickness that is out of control!

      1. arcturus says:

        Checked Australia lately? Didn’t think so.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Have you checked Canada lately? Didn’t think so!

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          ok..this ranting back and forth gave me a chuckle…

        3. Jack says:

          JUST a CUE on that ” NOTE” !!! Spin ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkaKwXddT_I. ;-)

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Hey Arcturus – great suggestion. I checked Australia. Melbourne on the south coast was 1 degree cooler than average in November. Perth on the west coast just had 4 days with highs of 75,73,75,73. Their average high is 81. Darwin up north was 1.2 deg. cooler than average in November. Brisbane was exactly at average for November…and Canberra, the capital, was 2.3 deg. cooler than average in November. They have only had 4 days warmer than average since Nov. 9.

        5. arcturus says:

          Oh Bill, conveniently missed October, didn’t you?

          http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/october-heat/

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link is to a global warming advocacy group. Their funding would dry up if global warming was (is being) discredited.

          Globally, October was a whopping 0.051 deg. warmer than average…and that icecap south of Australia is at a record extent for December: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png (look at how much it’s grown in the last year!)

    2. INDY says:

      Don’t forget about his brothers on here !!!! We will have to listen to them well he hides in the furnace!!!! INDYY

  28. michael g (SE GR) says:

    NWS has a high of 17* for next Tuesday in GR.

  29. INDY says:

    Weather facts for West Michigan cold front rolls in around 3pm tomorrow snow starts at 4pm will not stop till next Tuesday West Michigan could be seeing over a foot of snow by next week!!!! Now’s the time to get outside check on the pets get thee xmas lights up have a ton of food blankets and sprites going to get windy on Friday will Blizzard conditions roads will become slippery when wet and the cold air coming with it ohhhh man coldest air in 5 years will be over us so crank the music check out Bills best turn thee heat up and stay tuned!!!! INDYY

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Sounds great. Bring it on!

  30. Scott says:

    What I think is worthy to note is the amount of snowcover for the CONUS that the GFS is portraying for the 180-190 period. EVERY STATE in the CONUS is portrayed to potentially have at least a trace of snow on the ground except for South Carolina and Florida. And even South Carolina missing that by a hair.

    If that doesn’t tell the story of what could unfold, nothing will!

    1. Jack says:

      Key WORD is….. ” Could”….. Stay Tuned & Cued.. , ! ;-)

  31. spoon says:

    Storm will stay south friday. Storm will not come together sunday and lake effect will not come together next week.

    1. Jack says:

      Where the ” Fork” did ya get That INFO. From ????? ;-)

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      fpoon.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        + one trillion!

  32. bnoppe says:

    Normally I would not share a youtube video but this song is amazing its from the new Disney Movie Frozen best Disney song in a long time

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7sfbmh2V9c

  33. INDY says:

    We only eat off of spoons out thee cold YARDofBRICKS……INDYY.

    1. Jack says:

      Rofl…..hhahahhhAaa

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Holy moly!

  34. Bill does not seem to big on the lake effect for next week, at least on tonight’s forecast on T.V. To bad the ingredients couldn’t come together for Thursday. Typical Michigan weather when the wind is just right for Grand Rapids there’s always SOMETHING that does not come together, and with the cold air next week, the lake effect will likely be the small sand grain size flakes that won’t amount to anything, but I hope i’m wrong about that. I remember when I was in elementary and middle school I got about 2 snow days by now…winters have certainly changed over the past 10 years. And no I do not believe global warming I think that’s a bunch of crap. Its just climate change in my opinion

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      He tries to downplay it a week out because models can/do change often, but their 8-day forecast had the best chances of snow for Monday and Tuesday. I think the earliest snow day we ever had was in early December, and I went to a rural school. During my senior year(2007-08) when we had way over 100″, we had an insane amount of snow days. I remember teachers were complaining because they had to make up so many days at the end of the year.

      1. Yeah the winter in 2008 was insane! I remember that because I was in Intermediate school and we used I would say at least 8 snow days that year, and Byron Center Public Schools was the latest school to get out in the summer in all of west Michigan, and thats not a joke. I remember News 8 having to keep up the bus stop forecast for Byron Center till June 16 because we never got out till then that year

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Also, last year on January 23rd there was a high temp of 18°, and I received 6.75″ of lake effect, and Allegan received over a foot. The flakes were huge, and the snowfall rate was 2″+ an hour for multiple hours. So just because it’s cold doesn’t necessarily mean less snow.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      The trend over the last 10 years (at least up until this Nov.) is for warmer temps. and less snow in November and more snow in February.

      1. Brad says:

        Why is this?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Good question and I don’t think I have an answer. This Nov. was 2.1 deg. colder than average in G.R. with above average precipitation. You’d think we’d have above average snowfall, but the snow missed G.R. When we had lake-effect, the wind was more northerly, so Oceana Co., Muskegon…down in Berrien Co…that’s where there was above average snowfall. In Nov. 2012, we had exactly average temperatures for the month, but it was a very dry month and we didn’t get much rain or snow. The temperature was half a degree warmer in 2008 than 2012, but in 2008, Grand Rapids had 10″ of snow in November.

  35. INDY says:

    Once the snow starts not going to stop till next week!! In the last 5 years we have had more schools shut down because of liability with 3-12 inches of snow then ever don’t really know what your coming from on how winters have change safety of kids means more then anything now days!!!! INDYY

    1. Jack says:

      I agree Indy, The Reason Schools Are Closed NOW is a Liabilty Thing . Years ago, Not as Many Students Were BUSED to School as They are Now. Hence, More Liability for Students Safety ! Add the Analogy …” Better Safe, Than Sorry” !! Stay Cued for the Latest Cues & CLOSINGS as WE Look at All The Data Here in West Michigan. AND…Always Stay With Bills Best and Forget The REST……. Zzzzzzzzz…. ;-)

  36. Jack says:

    And on FOGGY …Note…Have Ya All Seen the Pictures of The Grand Canyon Lately ??? Here is One of Many ::

    A rare total inversion was seen over the weekend by visitors to Grand Canyon National Park. This view is from Mather Point on the South Rim. Cloud inversions are formed through the interaction of warm and cold air masses. (Erin Whittaker / National Park Service / November 29, 2013)

    1. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

      Beautiful Jack!!

  37. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Your ol uncle sparks just lit a fat green ally cat and is thinking some deep thoughts about winter. It’s going to get cold in the back woods, but in the love shack it will be hotter than ally’s comet. Fire, disco balls and leather will be the call of the wild side. Sparkee is feeling frisky on the whiskey. Look out aunty Edna, ol sparkee is feeling the flames of love!

    1. INDY says:

      Hey uncle Sparks Nephew INDDY here the last time I was over that pitcher of uncle Buck and Aunt Marry u had in your living room kept falling when u Edna had your disco ball going and crazy music I could not understand playing we had to turn on fog lights in your house because it was to darn smokee I hope u guys are doing better then that now!!!! Get ready for the cold lets go ice fishing!! Call u soon!!! INDYY

    2. Jack says:

      Hey….. Be Careful Uncle S. , Ole ANNTIE Edna..IS.. going To Be Taking The T- Shirt off Your Back !!! http://skreened.com/render-product/u/v/e/uvedaukowgepkagmaqao/whiskey-makes-me-frisky-tank.american-apparel-unisex-tank.athletic-grey.w760h760.jpg. Lol… Stay HOT @ THEEEE OLD ” Love Shack”..BTW: Indy & I would Love 2 Come Visit Soon..2 PARTY & FISH !!! Peace…. ;-)

  38. kevin. w says:

    I’m extremely disappointed in the NWS here in Isabella county as I was coming back from a friends house and the back roads are solid ice. Several cars in the ditch and I couldn’t even go 20 m.p.h on the back roads. Most of the main roads aren’t bad but still pretty crappy so not putting too much faith in there forecasting much anymore.

    1. Hey, they do there best. It may not be spot on, because hey, no one is perfect. They did mention the threat for freezing rain and icy roads through the afternoon before ending, but I will say that I think the miz precip lasted longer than they thought.

      1. John says:

        Kyle, when they issue advisories nothing happens but when they don’t the weather always gets bad and they still don’t issue an advisory! I agree with you they do their best but they don’t give it enough!

        1. I will agree that some of the forecasters need to get off looking at the computer and actually look out the window and go outside to look at the roads, because if forecasters rely on radar estimates they will continue to mess up

        2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          now its in the right spot LOL

          I believe that Isabella county is in the GR NWS
          SlimJim

    2. John says:

      They also downplayed the fog potential for tonight! There better not be any fog or else I will be very mad at them! They do this all the time and basically say they don’t care for drivers out on the roads that have to deal with this stuff!

      1. I was sitting home wondering when they would issue a WWA for Montcalm and Mecosta in our viewing area, but it never happened. I would have issued on if it was me myself

        1. Very very icy roads tonight in northern Gratiot county, 32.7 at 9:44′ now m46 is not bad but all dirt country roads, which we have many are a skating rink.

      2. Jack says:

        Hmmm, I’m quite Sure the Folks you are Criticizing . Also Drive on The Roads ,,!!! Just a Thought… Stay Cued…;-)

    3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I believe that Isabella county is in the GR NWS
      SlimJim

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Sorry John I this was supposed to have gone above under Kevin post
        SlimJim

        1. John says:

          That’s okay haha!

    4. Yep even here in northern Gratiot, we had a farmer slide off the road and spill a load of corn

  39. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    After a brief mild period with some rain tomorrow it looks like we turn colder for a while but as of now not much snow is expected. Even the NWS office in Gaylord is not expecting much of a lake effect event. The big problem will be air that is too dry and with a cold dry air mass we could even have just partly cloudy (or even clear) skies even with a west wind. Now for it being the coldest since late last January in that January time frame we had a stretch of temps in the upper teens for highs (we did have one day with a high of +10) and one night with a low of -2° and that low of -2 was the coldest since January of 2009 so GR went from January 26 of 2009 until January 22nd of 2013 without getting below zero!!! In that January of 2009 GR had 5 nights in a row that went below zero and 7 nights for that month! And you have to go back to February 4th 2007 to find a day when GR did not get out of the single digits on that February 4th day in 2007 GR had a high of +4 and a low of -6°. I am not sure if it was the last time or not but on January 18th and 19th 1994 GR did not get above zero and the lows were -18 on the 18th and -22 on the 19th
    SlimJim

    1. John says:

      That would be for this weekend! Next week we have better moisture although the problem next week could be the really cold air limiting big snowflake size!

      1. I highly doubt that we would get clear to partly cloudy skies, because even bill says there will still be lake effect snow showers around whether its on the lighter or heavier side. He even stated that the computer models are under doing the snow amount in the lake effect, and the cold air will produce the lake effect and my guess is the models don’t read that. That is why you can’t always rely on a computer, rely on Bill! hes the expert

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I remember 2/4/07 well. It was a Sunday. I had to go down to DeVos Place for an appearance (I think it was the last day of the Auto Show). Being the cheap guy that I am, I parked free north of I-196 and had a regrettable bone-chilling walk of about 4-5 blocks to get there. IMHO, not only do we get below zero this winter multiple times, but I’d wager we’ve got a pretty good shot at double-digit below zero temperatures on a couple mornings.

      In 1994, that low of -22 occurred well before sunrise, about 4-5 am – we had some clouds come in or we probably would have reached the all-time low of -24 for G.R. One thermometer east of Belding in a low spot got to (an unofficial) -37 that night.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Double digit below zero temps out be hard to reach Bill! That would be brutal and cause big problems on the roads.

      2. Jack says:

        THANKS…..CHIEF !!!

      3. Brenda (Otsego) says:

        I was living in Cheboygan in ’94 and we got down to -30. Needless to say, my car, which did not have a garage at the time, didn’t start that morning.

    3. yooper4021 says:

      Definitely remember that stretch in 1994! I was attending WMU, and recall classes being cancelled due to the extreme cold/wind chills.

      1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        Yup…not snow days, but COLD days!!!!

        1. Barb says:

          I remember when I was a kid we had many winter nights below zero throughout the winter. It seems winters as a whole are not as cold as they were in the ’50s and ’60s.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Look at the graphs here: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/ This is January temperatures by decade in G.R.

  40. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Have I missed any post talking about a massive Ice event to the East of us coming up? Rarely watch much network TV but during the 8p Anderson Cooper show last hour, they threw it to the CNN Weather Center (about the cold outbreak) and that was the last thing he said. It supposedly would cover about 6-8 States.

  41. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Still have a snowpack in the shaded areas around here. I wonder if we can get it to survive just one more day…

  42. Information from NOAA for weather history in Grand Rapids on Dec. 3
    12/3/1998
    An extended spell of warm weather occurs in early December with highs in the 50s and 60s the first six days of the month. Record highs are set on this date with 64 degrees at Grand Rapids and 66 degrees at Lansing.
    12/3/2002
    Arctic air and fresh snow cover combine to drop the temperature to 18 below zero at Lansing, setting a record for early season cold.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That was part of the strong El Nino year with warm temperatures around the globe.

  43. Hey bill do you remember Dec. 4 of 2009 at all? when the Grand Rapids area got over a foot of snow from a band of heavy snow. I still remember that day surprisingly

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      On 12/3-4/2009, Grand Rapids officially had 8.3″. We had 24.7″ in the first 11 days of December 2009.

      1. Ohh ok. I sure thought that areas north of town got more snow that that, such as Belmont, Sparta and Comstock Park because it was a narrow band of snow where it was heavy, but maybe I remembered wrong

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Hey Kyle, you are correct. I love this map page, even though it is just rough estimates…

          http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20091204_0000.png

        2. Cool map! Looks like I got about 6″!

  44. John says:

    The visibility is beginning to drop here now! We have about 2 mile visibility!

  45. John says:

    The 00Z GFS continues to show really cold air with the cold air isobars all the way down to Florida that’s unbelievable cold weather!!! And also continues to show a long duration lake effect snow event next week although amounts could be limited depending on how cold it gets and snowflake size!

    1. John says:

      This would all be for next week!

    2. John says:

      And the lake effect next week would be westerly flow the whole week!

    3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      The snow chances have gotten more bullish with every run since yesterday. Even if it was lighter snow, it would add up nicely over that duration especially since it keeps the wind direction virtually the same the whole event.

      1. John says:

        That is true I haven’t thought of that! That’s the nice thing about a long duration event! I could see totals in many places west of 131in the 3-6″ side if it’s lighter snow! If it’s heavier snow, it would be significant snow accumulation with a long duration event and I could see up to two feet of snow falling in some places if that were to be the case!

  46. Jack says:

    Here is ” Christ”mas Song I can pretty much Guarantee , You will Not Hear any where Else except RIGHT HERE on BILL’s BLOG!!!!!Cue…Big Tent Revival ::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE73pbsJMSs. :-) … Amen & GOD BLESS… :-)

  47. Jack says:

    TODAY in Weather History Grand Rapids, M.I. !!! 12/4/2009
    A narrow band of heavy snow across central Ottawa and Kent Counties drops over a foot of snow from Allendale to Comstock Park. Up to 15 inches falls in northern sections of Grand Rapids.

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