The Polar Express

December 4th, 2013 at 3:20 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

gfs_namer_162_1000_500_thick   Enjoy this last mild day with temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s this evening (mid 40s north).  Here’s the model update from early morning:  The NAM (only goes out to 72 hours) gives GRR a high of 52 today with an isolated shower.  The GFS takes us to 50.  the European has 52 after sunset.  The European has an additional 0.13″ of rain.   The models bring in the cold, with the NAM (caribou) taking us down to 39 by 7 am Thurs. and 30 by evening (watch for any puddle freezing up Thurs. evening).  The GFS plot has 37 at daybreak and 28 by 8 pm in the evening Thursday.  The Euro. would also be down to 28 by 7 pm Thurs.  Friday all the models have us holding in the mid 20s much of the afternoon, with low-mid 20s during the day Saturday and mid-upper 20s at most on Sunday.  Despite WNW winds off Lake Michigan Thurs to Sat. – the models don’t print out any measurable snowfall (I think there will be at least flurries).  Sunday the wind goes NE-E.  We could see snow by Sunday evening.  Monday the GFS prints out 0.23″, which would likely be about 3-4″ of snow.  The Euro. is 0.16″ precip. or maybe 2 1/2 inches.  Monday we reach the low 30s.  Then the REALLY cold air gets here.  Tuesday at 1 PM, the GFS has a temperature in G.R. of +9 with a wind west wind at 20 mph (the high temperature Tue. may be 20 at 12:01 am).   At that wind/temperature some schools won’t do recess. There’s steady snow showers off Lake Michigan and slick roads.  The European actually prints out 0.08″ and the GFS about the same.  Now, we’ll have a high snow to water ratio and events like this tend to be underdone.  A west wind at 20 mph means the air doesn’t spend much time crossing the lake.  The flake size will likely be small.  There will certainly be blowing and drifting snow.  The snow is steady thru Tues. night into early Weds. – long duration.   The temperature is back to the low 20s Weds. PM on the GFS and 20 on the Euro.   I could easily see the entire period producing 6″+ even in inland areas.  The GFS doesn’t take us above freezing again until the 14th.  Same story on the Euro.   Here’s GFS snow/rain/ice pellets/freezing rain out 5 days.   Bottom line…relatively warm today with a few showers…cooler tomorrow…colder still Fri-Sun…snow Sun. night/Monday (prob. plowable for much of the area) and REALLY cold with snow and drifting snow Tue. and Tue. night.  BTW, natural gas prices has risen 9 of the last 10 days as people know the cold air is comin’.  Here’s the CFS forecast for the rest of December…coast-to-coast cold!

Also:  Denver was 56 at noon yesterday…then the cold front went thru…the temp. dropped 19 deg. in an hour, 7 more deg. the next hour and fell 44 deg. in 9 hours.  At 1 PM Mon. Cheyenne WY was 50, at 1 PM Tue. they were 16.  Rapid City SD was 53 at 1 PM Mon. and 18 at 1 PM Tue.  High temps. Tues:  8 at Yellowstone N.P., 5 at Great Falls MT, 6 at Calgary, Alberta, 10 at Minot ND.  The Golden Snow Shovel goes to Gibbonsville ID with 30″ of new snow.  Two Harbors MN had 20.5″ and Duluth 14″ (both of those with a lake-effect boost from Superior).  There was a standing seiche on Lake Superior with a strong ENE wind.  Also, massive lake-effect snows off the Black SeaSignificant snow for a large part of Arizona (and it may snow in Las Vegas, Seattle and Dallas).

Midday Weds:  NAM (caribou) gives G.R. 2.2″ of snow Monday and 1.9″ on Tues…maybe another inch Weds.  GFS plot has snow starting Sunday evening.  Enjoy the 50+ deg. this evening.  GFS has nothing warmer than mid 30s from Thurs. PM thru the middle of the month.  Here’s monster-sized snowdrifts near Calgary, Alberta.  Here’s Canadian temps. (in F).   The mid-Lake Michigan buoy is still out there!  It shows a water temp. of 43.5 at 1 PM.  Here’s the National Watch/Warning map.  From Dr. Joe D’Aleo:  “A polar stratospheric warming sometime between late December and February is favored in the west QBO near the solar max, which would tank the AO/NAO and lock in the cold. It usually starts out of southeastern Asia and blossoms to the pole.  It takes a few weeks after to bring the effect down. Meanwhile the cold continues to build and the snowcover is increasing.”

165 Responses to “The Polar Express”

  1. Jack says:

    AGREE, that’s What Makes US ALL….. ” STAY” …Cued ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiHBCruacA4. Lol. ENJOY!!!

  2. Jack says:

    All This Talk of Snow & COLD… Is just a PRECURSOR to The ” Blizzard” Conditions Coming Last Week of DEC. ( Re: JEM Model) !!!! stay cccued !!!! ;-)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Bring it baby!

  3. Scott says:

    I strongly suggest that we avoid a set up for dissapointment and take this situation day by day. Here’s what we know for sure:

    1) It’s going to get cold. The question of how cold will depend on factors such as lake influence, snowcover, and radiational clearing later on.
    2) We’re going to see snowflakes this coming week. Now whether it’s 43 snowflakes or an army of 43,000,000 – we have yet to find out. :)
    3) Someone’s going to get a good snow on Sunday-Monday. Now who it is that’s going to get it is the million dollar question.
    4) Pizza is incredible on a winter’s evening.

    Let’s just breathe calm, check the models daily, and above all else, as Arcturus says, not set ourselves up for possible let downs. We have all of the rest of December, January, and February to go through before the sun angle starts to get higher. Whatever happens, let’s enjoy it. I had a surprise 1/2″ to 3/4″ snowfall the other night and it made my night! I’m taking that same approach with this one. Weather’s weather – let’s love every bit of it no matter what happens.

    Everybody got the hat, coat, scarves and gloves ready?

    1. Scott says:

      *before the sun angle is appreciably higher enough to effect winter scenarios, I meant.

    2. Scott says:

      Also, I should restate that I did measure .80″ to nearly 1″ that night of snow as well with three measurements – but I’m believing the majority of it in the yard was 1/2″ to 3/4″. One thing I’m going to have to do is get a flat snowboard to do measurements on in a clear area. Hard to do in this area for a few reasons when you get less than an inch to measure. There is a big flat field to measure on, but you think I’m getting near those coyotes that keep howling? LOL

    3. John says:

      I think the whole state has a decent shot at accumulating snow Sunday night-Monday!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        100% in agreement!

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The preliminary RDB snowfall forecast for the the Sunday/Monday system is 3.5 inches for GR! COLD and SNOW is about ready to invade West MI! Enjoy!

    1. bnoppe says:

      3.5? like 3 1/2 or 3-5

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        3 1/2

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Blizzard conditions will be hitting next Tuesday with decent lake effect SNOW for GR! I love it!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Your an idiot. No one wants a blizzard. While your at it wish for a f5 to rip through gr. Anybody who enjoys dreary, foggy cool days like today need their head checked.

      Counting down to spring already.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        More brilliant and uplifting comments from Debbie Downer himself!

      2. John (Holland) says:

        A blizzard is hardly the same thing as a tornado.

        (I’d like a snow hurricane, personally.)

  6. John says:

    What are the chances of getting blizzard like conditions or whiteout conditions with the lake effect next week? Seems reasonable to me, with the smaller in general snowflakes and windy conditions ?

    1. Jack says:

      50/50…. John…Stay Cued… Indeed !! How’s That for going out on a Limb ?? Hahhaha

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I would say closer to 65/35!

  7. bnoppe says:

    I’m not likening the last GFS Run almost looks like the system is further east and has less moister. we shall see

    1. John says:

      Where in the world do you see that ? I’m looking at the 18Z GFS right now and I do not see it farther east???

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The GFS model is wrong anyway – don’t even bother with that model till the storm is about 2 days out!

      1. Jack says:

        GFS Model= “G”ood ” F”or ” S”hit !!!IMAO…. ;-) . Lol.???? Stay cued & Tuned& Get Ready To ROCK~n~ROLL!!!

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          + 1 trillion!

  8. Brad says:

    I just realized what’s missing from the blog- fixxxer’s take on these events. Come back, fixxxer!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Nothing to say. I don’t come round much. The weather sucks. Might be cold but at least we don’t have a lot of snow.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Not as fixxxxxxxer anyway.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          + trillion!

    2. Jack says:

      THERE HE IS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Brad ^^^^^^^^^^^ lol…;-)

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Be careful what you ask for!

  9. Wow I never thought I would hear thunder on Dec. 4 in Michigan! Michigan’s weather is truly spectacular. You never know what the day will hold because Michigan always throws a curve ball

    1. John says:

      And people say thunder in the fall means no winter! Smh! Just take a look at next week!

      1. I know its amazing! from 50 today to the teens next week with snow!. Wild weather!

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        here is a list of winter sayings

        http://www.stormfax.com/wxlore.htm

        SlimJim

    2. Jack says:

      That’s True Kyle, History Don’t Lie. 12/4/1886
      A record cold snap continues across Lower Michigan. Lansing falls to 13 degrees below zero, as the temperature hits zero or below on first five days of the month there.
      12/4/1941
      Three days before the attack on Pearl Harbor, Lower Michigan is basking in record warm early December weather. Record highs include the 60 degrees at Muskegon, 63 degrees at Grand Rapids and 64 degrees at Lansing.
      12/4/2009
      A narrow band of heavy snow across central Ottawa and Kent Counties drops over a foot of snow from Allendale to Comstock Park. Up to 15 inches falls in northern sections of Grand Rapids.
      12/5/2001

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Just a little remainder of what some winter weather conditions are and what the definitions are.

    http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/wint97ny.htm

    SlimJim

  11. I’m pretty excited about the upcoming 3 weeks leading into Christmas, lots of cold and snow chances

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Keep us posted on your thoughts Mark. You bring some good insight to the possible snow storm chances!

  12. Wow looks like some heavy freezing rain returns up in Iron County in the Upper Peninsula. Wonder what there ice accum. is so far

  13. John says:

    WZZM has 21 for Tuesday that’s warm enough for heavier snowflake size! I’m hoping that’s the case rather than the thiner small stuff defined by the colder air!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      FOX has 23. WWMT has 16. Average seems to be 19°, which would be perfect for accumulating snow.

      1. John says:

        Fox is always the warmest amongst them all!

  14. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Yikes. Up to 55 here now! So much for “Never going to hit 50 this week” from someone who posts way to much mindless garbage on the blog. Who knew? Not him.

  15. Bullwinkle says:

    LMFAO! Now thats classic… ‘Who knew? Not him!’ LMFAO

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