Cold Air Moves in

December 5th, 2013 at 2:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

high temps.    Click on the image to enlarge.  This is a map of high temperatures from Weds.  Lots of single digit highs in the Western Dakotas down to Denver and out West.  Some notable cool high temps:  -1 Dillon MT, 6 Williston ND, 9 Rapid City SD, 9 Denver CO (they were 56 the day before!), 0 Gillette WY, 45 Las Vegas, 63 Phoenix.  On the warm side:  70 Evansville IN, 71 Louisville KY, 76 Nashville TN, 80 Jackson MS and New Orleans LA.  The cold air pushes east into Michigan and south to the Gulf of Mexico today.

Overnight run Model update:  NAM caribou (nothing more than a few flurries…temp. down to 29 by 5 pm…high 26 on Fri., 18 Sat. AM and it holds at 21 Sat. afternoon…back to 18 Sun. AM.  Winds go light Saturday night and if by chance we were to go clear, it would be down in the single figures.  The GFS plot is also down to 29 by 5 pm, high 26 Fri. PM and 26 Sat. PM.  Snow starts Sunday evening and we get 1-2″ Sunday night in G.R. with steady light snow from Lake effect thru Tues. night.  The model prints out 0.23″ total and at a 20-1 ratio that would be 4-5″ of snow…plus drifting.  The coldest 850 mb temps. are -22C Monday night and -21C Thursday morning.  The GFS MOS has highs of 28 Fri. and 25 on Sat.  The NAM MOS has 23 Friday and 21 Sat.   The Ruropean has a low temperature of +4F Weds. AM in G.R.  and a 2 PM temp. of just 16 Weds. PM.   The European prints out 0.30″ precip. for G.R. from Sun. night thru Weds. AM and at a 20-1 ratio, that’s 6″ of snow…plus the drifting.   The ski resorts can start making snow late this PM and make it non-stop until they’ve got powder bases in multiple feet around the whole resort.  Houghton Lake had 5″ of snow on the ground yesterday evening, but I’ll bet half of that melted overnight.  In the U.P. Grand Marais and Big Bay have 10″ on the ground with 5″ at Sault Ste. Marie.

Here’s the CFS model thru mid January.  If you don’t like cold and snow, this looks like the year to plan that South Florida vacation.  We miss the snowstorm to the south that will lay down decent snow cover from E. Oklahoma to New York State.  Duluth quit snowing at midnight after 67 consecutive hours of snowfall.  Duluth has 20″ on the ground.  Douglas Pass CO had 30″ of snow in 24 hours.   Huge storm in N. Europe.  Gusts to 100 mph on mountaintops in Scotland, gusts to 80 mph possible along Danish Coast.   Gas is as low as $2.88 in Cedar Springs.

 

 

203 Responses to “Cold Air Moves in”

  1. Scott says:

    Am I the only one here who is looking at the Winter Storm system on National Radar – and feeling like someone is holding a carrot about a foot away from me, just out of reach to grab? :)

  2. SW Kent says:

    18Z GFS trending much drier middle of the month…..

    1. John says:

      It is the worst model in us history don’t even bother looking at it! Most likely it will change!

      1. SW Kent says:

        I know, just making a point.

  3. Scott says:

    If I can be honest, I don’t understand the fixation with GFS.

    I understand it is an option to try to get an idea of what the weather’s going to do in the Mid and the Long range. But with the GFS, it’s just as easy to go get a kindergartener, grab a map of the United States, give him a green, orange, and red crayons, tell him or her to have at it and mark the map up, and you’d have just as accurate a picture of the mid and long range pattern as the GFS.

    Though sometimes it can latch on to something weeks in advance, and sometimes it may depict basic trends – in reality, most of it’s ideas are nowhere near what really happens. The best thing to do is focus on the short term and spaghetti ensembles, and the overall big picture – but beyond 5 to 6 days – just don’t even worry about it. All GFS does is spell let downs, dissapointments, causes storms to appear, disappear, move north, south, west, strengthen, shift, and cause headaches and tears of meteorological frustration. I mean of course people can if they WANT to – but you’d be better off reading a fiction book then trusting the GFS model. Chaos theory is real – and the slightest shift of anything can cause everything to change. Computers just don’t have the resolution to sort out microscale events that can completely change mesoscale and/or macroscale predicted developments.

    1. Scott says:

      I’m not meaning to say it’s not good for air mass movements, etc – but it’s just not a good forecaster of the things that weather nuts like us want to know about in detail.

      1. Haha I like your example of a kindergartner with the crayons! that’s a great example of the GFS! haha well said!

    2. SW Kent says:

      To be fair Scott, the GFS eliminated the LES potential for this weekend a long time ago, and it appears to be accurate.
      I agree, it can be a joke at times, but I have seen it quite accurate 5 -7 days out many times.

      1. Scott says:

        5 to 7 out, 7 days out to me is even questionable, but yes, it’s possible it could be “more” accurate, and actually be in agreement with other operational models at that timeframe. Longer then that? That’s my issue. Too many look at it’s mid and long range and begin to freak out when it shows the blizzard of the century that will just completely disintegrate on the next run, or see a 12″ snowfall – or any other climatologically significant meteorological episode. It’s just another way to spend more money on Advil.

  4. From what the farmers almanac says, it gives us a very humid and warm summer for 2014 with more thunderstorms than last year. Just throwing it out there

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is too funny! We are about to have winter get revved up with arctic air and SNOW and you are talking about next summer :)

      1. I enjoy winter, mainly for snow days and to get my snowmobile out, but other than that id rather have it be in the 80′s with severe weather. Id take Severe Thunderstorms over snow anyday

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Sort of like when Rocky talks about cold in August?

  5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    This is what I think is amusing. All these storms around us and we still have “limited moisture”. Check out this map. Blah. I guess our time will come. :)

    http://www.weather.gov/

    1. I know! With accumulating snow all around us how is there “limited moisture”! it makes no sense to me at all!

    2. John says:

      What happens is these storms steal the moisture that we need for lake effect away! That’s why we need these storms to go away for a month or so so we can get a lot of moisture for lake effect!

      1. Jesse (zeeland) says:

        I believe the system to the south is sealing off the gulf moisture and the Polar jet core is too far to the north to provide enough moisture.

    3. Cort S. says:

      Here is a map of relative humidity approx. 1 mile above the surface:

      Click here

      The arrows indicate which way the air is flowing towards, so you can tell the difference in source regions between the air over Michigan and the air over the southern US.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The updated 8 to 14 CPC still shows us with below average temperatures and above average snowfall! We are about ready to get hammered baby!

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Rocky This is a nice Read about Averages in Grand Rapids inDecember !!! JEM Model uses this Info. In Regards to it’s LONG Range Predictions ! Stay Cued & Happy READING Y’all……… ;-)

    2. Jack says:

      Hammered .?? As in Sledge HAMMER…. CUE, PETER Gabriel :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N4. ;-) . Enjoy !

  7. Jack says:

    Whoops forgot to put Up The LINK !! weatherspark.com/averages/30405/…/Grand-Rapids-Michigan-United-State…

    1. Interesting to see that 18% of the time we spend having a West wind here in Michigan, while we spend 9% of the time in a NW flow. It would seem that if we spent more time in a west wind there would be more west wind lake effect events, yet, there aren’t many good west wind events that happen, while usually there is in a NW flow, yet thats only 9% of the year! interesting stuff

  8. Scott says:

    Think we got it bad?

    Southern Indiana is under a Winter Storm Warning right now.

    HOWEVER.

    They currently are under the influence of one of those horrible dry slots that has worked in – there’s now zero snow falling in southern Indiana, and it appears for them things to the southwest at least at this moment, keep drying out for them.

    The snow band has set up, as a result, farther northwest. You’d think that’s good for places like Fort Wayne, right? Wrong. They have too much dry air and it appears that it’s just virga showing up on radar echoes.

    For Indiana, with the exception of Indianapolis and points e/w, I’d be pretty disappointed right now!!!!

    1. Scott says:

      Shouldn’t say ZERO snow – there are still convective snowshowers just south of that dry slot – some heavy. But in that area where it’s dry as an Arizona summer day, that’s dissapointing. There is some convective snowshowers to it’s SW, maybe those might get there by early morning and possibly redeem them a little bit- but I’m thinking more dry for them then not.

      1. Scott says:

        And now, because I failed to look at something as simple as TEMPERATURE and rushed things – I have to eat some crow as it’s actually rain down there at this point – snow threat tomorrow – with temps above freezing down there.

        Sorry about that! That’s what happens when I look too quickly and don’t take the time to analyze properly. I won’t be too hard on myself. I’m not a met – and we all make mistakes. Forgive me, and I’ll forgive you :)

  9. John says:

    There’s already been reports of up to a quarter inch of ice in Arkansas and Tennessee! I talked to my friends who were just here for Thanksgiving they flew back down on Monday, their kids had a early release at 11am today for school and they don’t have school tomorrow because of ice! They told me that virtually every school in the state is already closed for tomorrow which rarely happens!

    1. John says:

      Kyle don’t you wish you were down there for school excluding the ice haha!

      1. I’d love it! To bad it’s not here

    2. John says:

      There schools down their close every time they get an inch of snow or even less because they freak out and don’t know what to do because they are not use to it down there! Here we say that’s pathetic!

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Starting Saturday morning the models will finally start to get a handle on the Sunday night/Monday system. At that point it will show a stronger system that will have the low pressure system track just North of the Detroit area. GR will be in the main swath of SNOW! Flint will be dry slotted and a have temperature of about 40 degrees!

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      This coming from the guy who said it would NEVER hit 50 this week. You are consistent at least. Consistantly wrong.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Thanks for listening and I appreciate your support.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The RDB model is on fire. Mark it down baby!

        1. INDYY says:

          barry don’t know barry!!!!! INDYY

        2. Josh From Zeeland says:

          HEY INDY YOU’RE SUCH A RACIST A-HOLE. I KNOW BARRY PERSONALLY AND HE IS A BLACK MAN. YOU JUST COMMITTED A HATE CRIME. I’m sure that there a good excuse for your crimes, and ill give you a chance to repent. I bet that it is just didn’t take all your meds this morning. You should have your mommy do a mouth check more often!

      3. Robert says:

        Being this mad.

  11. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Ohhh your ol uncle sparkees been partying since Thursday! Crazy Friday night and staying higher than a Georgia pine tree. Going ice fishing tomorrow. Tokes the blood hound is howling and chasing his tail round and round. Your ol aunty Edna has a load fire wood as high as the pine river dunes. Bring on the cold, I’ve got enough medical green to last thru march!! The luv shacks gettin crazy and hazy.

    1. Jack says:

      ME 2…..Uncle Sparkeee !!! When it come To GREEN !! For the WINTER…. Going to Try to take a ROAD TRIP Ice Fishing with yer nephew INDY !! Sooooonnn…Here is a CUE, 4U & edna::::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KbKH4A7VFY.

      1. Uncle Sparkee says:

        Roll a fat uncle sparkeeeee!!!

  12. kevin. w says:

    Looking at the past two months that October and November were wetter than average and based on the position of the storm track I’m thinking at least the first half of December may be drier than average. Now looking past about the 18th when the jet stream will be less amplified than it is now we may be in a better position to get some good moisture up this way. Its too cold for any real big snows with a more southerly storm track but by looking at the ECMWF model after mid month looks like it may change in our favor. Just my opinion.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Maybe but late month it will warm up and that will end up as rain LOL
      SlimJim

    2. Jacob G says:

      The rumor mill tonight on the EURO monthlies show the pattern reloading with cold and storminess after the 20th. With a blizzard for the NE and then a blizzard in the Midwest. I do think this winter we are getting setup for a major blitz for a few weeks of pretty good proportions, timing is everything. Also we are getting this cold without a negative NAO, AO or positive PNA. Finally we are not really in the coldest phases of the MJO. So that is a bit telling with the cold we are experiencing without the typical colder signals.

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While the temps range from near 0 to the mid teens to our west here in Michigan we are mostly in the mid 20’s to low 30’s but colder in the UP with some single digits to upper teens. The best I can tell the only location in Michigan reporting snow is at Houghton. So it very well could be a cold but dry weekend and who knows maybe even Sunday nights system may not produce much in the way of snow for us. So I guess all of you so call snow bunnies will have to either 1. Wait for snow or 2. Drive either north or south for it.
    Its now 30° here with some breaks in the clouds. Also GR is now up to 0.1” of snow for December and that’s with 0.71” of rain.
    SlimJim

  14. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Your ol uncle sparks still fits in his ol Santa suite. Your ol aunty Edna wants to play North Pole fantasy land tonight! Gettin crazy!! Close your blood shot eyes tokes!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Poor, poor Tokes.

  15. INDYY says:

    I read tavass and his playboys are out and about on Bill’s blog tonight nothing better to do????? Uncle sparks and old Edna are getting the smoke ready for this cold toke we have over us!!! INDY knows what rolls up in Badwin at Sparks house this time of night!!!! Weather facts it’s cold outside 26* now out thee YARDofBRICKS this time tomorrow night we will have winter storm watches out for West Michigan now’s the time to pick up the yard have a sprite and enjoy Bills blog tonight!!!! Stay Tuned.INDTYY..

    1. spoon says:

      There will be no winter storm watches.come tomorrow, saturday or sunday.

    2. Doesn’t look like anything significant until after the next 8 days at the earliest. The National Weather Service rarely issues Winter Storm Watches for events that occur 1-2 weeks out.

  16. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Yeahh we partied a little!

  17. INDYY says:

    We eat out of sppons out thee YARDofBRICKS WHAT A FUNNY NAME!!! INDYY

    1. spoon says:

      So is indyy

    2. Vincent in Vriesland says:

      My kid is named that, thank you very much..

  18. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    Tuesday morning we had 3 inches of snow then again we had another 3 inches of snow overnight into Wednesday morning. That changed to Freezing rain overnight and I had a hard time getting the ice off my car. I got enough off to see while I was driving but then the freezing rain changed to plain rain and we must have got a half inch of rain and it came down like a Monsoon at times. Where I work we had the roof leaking water and we had buckets all over the workplace. They fixed the roof last year but now there are problems with it again. The rain melted a lot of the snow we got. The snowpiles are still there and we have an inch left of snow on the ground. Now it is 15 degrees with a wind chill of 0. Cold over in Minnesota right now.

  19. Nick says:

    how does this just miss us and keep going? it makes no sense

  20. Todd In Nunica says:

    lots of winter left, remember winter never showed till late Jan last winter and here on the lake we still managed to get 100″

    I am happy to not have much snow till after Christmas, gives me time to enjoy all the parties I have this month, then it can open up and the white dollar bills can fall from the sky…..err…ahhh I mean snow…lol

  21. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Great video with multiple different views of the death of comet Ison here:

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/12/comet-ison-doesnt-appear-to-have-survived-its-journey-around-the-sun.html

    Bummer we’re not going to see it. Much like the impending snow around here, comet Ison was a fail.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Someday that will happen to Halley’s Comet. Too bad none of us will probably be alive to see it.

  22. Cool video from Dec. 5 2010 lake-effect snow in the Zeeland area. Driving into it on 96

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXFV55LS-cY

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I’ve watched that one more than once…great example of the extreme change in conditions in just a couple minutes when you hit lake-effect snow bands.

      1. Jack says:

        Bill, Go to Stormypleasures.com and Read Charles Latest Story about Charles Rescuing a ” CHRISTMAS” Great STORY !! I Hope it Goes Viral !! I believe It COULD…check it OUT Bill & All Bloggers

  23. Jack says:

    WOW….Gang !!! Can’t We all just ” Get Together “….and get Along !! WOW, SPIN :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4fWN6VvgKQ. :-)

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