Arctic Air Expands

December 6th, 2013 at 3:00 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

high temps.     First check out the huge storm surge from the 60 mph winds from a deep low pressure system pushing water towards the shoreline of Germany and Denmark.    There has been a tremendous band of lake-effect snow going across Lake Superior.  It crossed Houghton County, where they had 9″ of new snow and very strong winds that were putting large drifts across roads.  Gusts included 63 mph at Keweenaw Pt., 62 mph at Goetzville, 54 mph on the beach at Charlevoix and 45 mph on Mackinac Is.   The Superior snow band was coming onshore north of Sault. Ste. Marie were very heavy snow was falling on the road to Wawa.   An ice storm was downing tree limbs and power line from extreme N Texas across SE Oklahoma, NW Arkansas and all the way up in central Ohio with rain to the southeast and snow to the northwest of the freezing rain.  Indianapolis had 4″ of new snow.

As you can see on the map, it’s really cold over much of the Central and Western U.S.  Look at some of these chilly high temperatures:  -9 Glasgow and Miles City MT, -5 at Dickinson ND, 1 at Watertown SD, 6 at Scottsbluff NE and Colorado Springs CO, 9 at Minneapolis, 12 at Goodland KS, 15 at Dalhart, TX, 18 at Spokane WA, 41 at Las Vegas NV, 50 at Tucson AZ and 57 at Phoenix AZ.   Denver had a high of 56 on Wednesday and only 8 on Thursday.

Overnight Model update:  Both the European and GFS give G.R. 0.08″ of snow Sunday night or 1-2″ of snow.  The NAM is higher at 2.7″.  the GFS has another 0.16″ from Monday to Thursday…or probably about 4-5″ for the 4 day period – with drifting – it gives us winds as high as a steady 29 mph on Tuesday.   The European has the coldest temperatures Weds. evening.  The NAM high temperatures for the next 3 days are 27, 22 and 28.   The European would have an additional 1-2″ of snow Tues. to Thurs…enough to keep the roads slick at times, esp. with drifting.

117 Responses to “Arctic Air Expands”

  1. Skot says:

    Isnt it very rare for a freezing rain way south and the front line giving us heavy snow up here ?? or is the “Storm Killer” still to warm ??

    1. kevin. w says:

      Its more like a January pattern then a December one, so will have our Dec in Jan. or something like that.

      1. Barb says:

        “than” not “then”

  2. kevin. w says:

    Well like I said yesterday Oct/Nov was wetter than average and now it looks to be drier than ave. through at least mid month. The Euro is kinda a showing a pattern change around the 20th with the gulf more involved but will see about that. You can read the NWS discussion here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  3. INDYY says:

    18* out thee YARDofBRICKS That’s a cold start!!!! Winter watches coming!!! Stay Tuned INDYY……..

    1. Storm waning says:

      Uh? For 2-4 inches over the course of 3-4days? You did not read the WOODTV forecast. Predicted 2-4 inches from now till Tuesday. What are you talking about? Seriously. I don’t believe they have storm watches for cold air.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        What the hell is a “storm waning”? Something like a warning?

  4. Ken says:

    Great Euro photo!

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Always good news when the storms and snow is everywhere else but here! No warnings or watches in these parts!

    1. suehelen says:

      +++++

  6. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Feels like it will never snow here. So much wasted cold air.

  7. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I like your new profile picture with Santa Bill! It really fits next weeks snow theme well :)

    1. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

      Did you read the latest forecast discussion? Basically they said a possible 1-2 sunday night and the air will be too dry for lake effect again following it. I don’t think there will be much snow for west Michigan.

  8. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Will the grass be covered by next Wed? Beginning to wonder. Not looking too promising.

  9. Storm waning says:

    Cold and dry is fine, keeps salt off of the cars and drivers from hitting each other. If you want to ski that can be made. If you own a sled you most likely trailer it north any way, plus you have enough ice for skating and fishing. Enjoy the outdoors.

    1. Storm waning says:

      And you can still cycle…. Michigan has some of the toughest cyclist in the nation. Year round

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        We just had 2 cyclists go by our house today, and we live on a dirt road in the boonies! lol

  10. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Another day, another bump up of the Wood forecasted temps. We missed the coldest temperatures and definitely missing out on all the good snow.

    Granted, we’re coming off a pretty low base here, but this 30-day temperature plot is pretty unusual as we enter the heart of winter. It shows a gradual increase in temps even as the averages are falling.

    http://www.weathertrends360.com/Graph/30day/ST3676/20131206000000

    In other words, this will likely be the coldest air we see for a while around here.

    1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Increase in temps though could also mean a stormier/snowier pattern toward later in the month. Hard to tell 30 days in advance.

    2. Michael (Berrien county) says:

      Case in point…. Bret Anderson of accuweather just released his latest long range outlook into early Jan, which includes a milder, yet snowier pattern for much of Michigan. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-january/20697494

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Nice link, thanks. A definite warming trend.

        And you’re right, temperatures in the 30′s allow storms to have more moisture and hopefully some more snow! At the same time, however, warmer temps usually limit the lake effect.

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Warming up right to average December weather. Agreed, this will be an unusually December cold outbreak for the next couple weeks.
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    4. yooper4021 says:

      The WOOD cold weather bias is outrageous…just as it was outrageous yesterday. Sheesh…

      7-day forecasted high temps, starting with today:

      WOOD – 26, 22, 27, 31, 21, 19, 24
      WZZM – 27, 23, 27, 31, 21, 23, 30
      WXMI – 27, 23, 25, 30, 23, 20, 25
      NWS – 24, 23, 25, 29, 22, 19, 25
      Weathertrends – 28, 23, 24, 27, 20, 20, 25
      Ac-clueless – 27, 24, 26, 29, 22, 19, 25

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Two days ago they were much, much colder than others. Now, they are pretty much in line after several raises.

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Data??

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          We talked about it on the old blog threads. You must have missed it.

        3. yooper4021 says:

          That’s what I thought.

      2. Barb says:

        They don’t appear to be THAT different.

    5. Bill Steffen says:

      I don’t always forecast midnight-to-midnight, Travis. On 12/4 we had a high of 59, but not until around 11 pm. The temperature at sunset (5 PM) had only reached 50. I could have forecast 59 for a high temperature the day before, and people would have planned on a day near 60…when in reality, most of the day was dreary, damp, foggy and cool with temperatures in the 40s. On 12/2 I had a high of 52 out for 12/4 and I bumped it up to 54 on 12/3, specifically saying the high wouldn’t occur until evening.

  11. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    Ground should at least begin to slowly get covered over the next week with snow. Maybe a little lake effect tonight, followed by Sunday night’s 1-3 inches, followed by at least a few more inches of lake effect after that. Then 06GFS even showing a few clippers diving down into our area in the northwest flow later next week, possibly with some lighter synoptic and/or lake enhanced snow. I agree with Bill, several inches to come over the next several days along with cold temps, just no real big storms.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      But the Rocky troll has been spouting off for months about this weekend! How can this be? Once again, who knew? Not him!

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        He was right about the timing of a big storm, he just missed the location by about 400 miles.

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
          SlimJim

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Precisely.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        LOL… thankfully, we have Rocky to offset those who frequently ‘troll’ on the warm side of the spectrum.

  12. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Hey its 22° and cloudy here in my nick of the woods…BTW I had to look hard BUT I did see a few snow flakes. You know its very cold on the other side of the lake with a lot single digit temps below and just above zero. While here in Michigan the temps are for the most part in the upper teens to the north all the way to the upper 20’s to the south. It is colder in the UP where there is more clear skies. Its hard to say how much snow we will or will not get the next week or so but I do not believe we will be seeing any major snow events for a good while. AND as for the last half on December my (forecast guess) of a warm up is still on tap. So do not be too surprised if with the warmer temps if we see some rain (or maybe just rain) as we head in the Christmas week.
    SlimJim

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It is amazing the effect those big lakes have on us. I’ll take it.

  13. John says:

    The GFS still has my area getting 4-6″ of snow thru next Wednesday! :)

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I’m not seeing it. But maybe that is a good thing for the GFS and it will opposite :)
      http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      The GFS still has my area getting 4-6″ of snow thru next Wednesday! :)

  14. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    I keep thinking with all of this cold weather early in the season, while the lakes are still relatively warm, this would be the type of season we are measuring lake effect in feet. Not the case so far.

  15. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    One item about this cold snap is that without a large amount of snow to go with it…it will soon be forgotten and several years from now very few will remember it..
    also
    Even John Dee is not all that excited about the snow total in our area for the next ten days or so.
    http://www.johndee.com/forecast_graphic.htm

    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Not anticipating any major records being broken. A high of 19 on Wednesday would still be 9 degrees warmer than the record low high temp set in 1995.

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=98632&source=0

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        True, but forecasted high is almost 20 degrees below average. Again for the record, I hope their horribly wrong. I’m not ready for that kind of cold.

        1. Barb says:

          “they’re” not “their”

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Thanks teach.

  16. yooper4021 says:

    The remarkable stretch of autumn snowfall continues in Marquette. 18 consecutive days with at least a trace of snow, and 38 of 48 days dating back to October 19. Not much accumulation to go with it…otherwise it would make for an extra long winter.

  17. arcturus says:

    Yep, said it before, seen it before … all the talk about snow, then disappointment sets in. Enjoy the cold (but not as cold as originally thought) temps. There was earlier talk about hitting 0 on Tuesday lol.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Still possible, but on the other side of Lake Michigan.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I never said we’d hit zero…which is very hard to do here unless we have snow on the ground.

  18. John (Holland) says:

    If there is such a thing, I would say we have heavy flurries here in Holland. Nothing is accumulating because of the small flakes, but it’s coming down right now.

    1. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

      I agree John, heavy flurries is a good description for what I am seeing as well.

  19. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

    it is snowing here in Zeeland now. Small flakes, but hey it’s snow none the less.

  20. John says:

    The NWS seems to think there’s going to be more of a freezing rain threat Sunday night than snow, I doubt that especially for the central and northern viewing areas! But well see!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Yeah cuz you’re a meteorologist.

      1. John says:

        And you’re not! You’re very rude! Let people blog on here! Man what in the world is wrong with some people on this blog! I wish there was some sort of report the person button like on Facebook on this blog! Bill is there anything you can do?

      2. John says:

        You and some other people on this blog can get on my last a**!

  21. Mike in Hamilton says:

    Very light snow/flurries in Hamilton. Doesn’t show up on the radar, but I suspect that is because it’s so light and the cloud deck is so low.

    Go out an look at the snow if you’re getting it, they are the tiniest but also picture perfect snow flakes!

    1. Mike in Hamilton says:

      Well things changed quickly. It picked up in both intensity and flake size right after I posted this. This ground was white by 10:15!

  22. Josh From Zeeland says:

    Snow in Holland as we speak! Coming down like cats and dogs!

    1. Barb says:

      Nothing here in downtown GR.

  23. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

    Heavy snow in Zeeland. Flakes are much larger than they were 30 minutes ago.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      So visibility is down to 1/4 mile then in Zeeland then….right!
      SlimJim

      1. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

        This is all relative to the past few days slim ;) right now about 1 mile maybe less. Flakes are medium sized and falling lightly with not much of a wind. A nice ambience snow.

  24. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Getting flurries here not much more. Temp is 23°
    SlimJim

  25. John says:

    Starting to get some big flakes here! Much earlier than the NWS indicated maybe well get more snow than they said we would! :)

    1. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

      Same here John. It’s a beautiful snowfall, light and fluffy easy to shovel!

      1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

        Im thinking my leaf blower can handle it

        1. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

          Haha yes if I had a leaf blower it would work wonders.

  26. Brandon (Hudsonville) says:

    Light snow now falling- just picked up in intensity & flake size within the last 15 minutes. Will be interesting to see if radar starts to pick up this at all.

  27. Storm waning says:

    Notice how the current WOOD forecast throws out the next WINTER SNOW DOGGIE TREAT by saying “looks like snow around the 14th”. This current snow forecast is a bust…. But stay tuned. They’ll talk it up till 24hours before the 14th and then…. It went north, or south, or blame lake mi, blah, blah, blah. But the next model shows snow around Christmas and then mid January, and then valentines day…. And so it goes, and so it goes

    And one of those times they’ll get it right and say….. The most accurate, the most up to date…… And so it goes and so it goes.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      And, O wise one, where would you recommend we go for a more accurate, up-to-date weather forecast?

      (By the way…I think you have the wrong station. A competitor is the one advertising “West Michigan’s Certified Most Accurate Forecast”)

    2. John (Holland) says:

      Storm waning confirmed for not knowing that weather forecasting is not an exact science.

    3. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      Scare team 8

      1. yooper4021 says:

        Yep, dressed up as Bill for Halloween and it was the scariest in the neighborhood. I think it was the mustache.

  28. Big snowflakes snowing light-moderate at times

    1. John says:

      What do you do all day Kyle at school look out a window? Lol!

      1. Pretty much! weather is more interesting!

        1. John says:

          Haha if I was still in school I would agree with you on that!

        2. John says:

          And I still think weather is interesting but in school I would think it’s more interesting than listening to the teacher!

  29. DF (SE Mich) says:

    The 12z NAM does look stronger with the Sunday night storm… it just needs to shift south and east a bit.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    1. John says:

      Nope it doesn’t! The heaviest is right over my area! :)

      1. I just got done with a test so there not much more to do that look at the weather!

        1. Oops that was to go on the next one up. my bad

  30. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Looking at the radar, I am not seeing too much snow over the area… But there have been several reports of snow.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      It’s extremely light. It’s the kind of snow you see on Christmas Eve in the movies.

      1. SS Pwell Area) says:

        Very small flakes here.

  31. bnoppe says:

    I never could understand the definition of several inches I feel like according to the NWS several means 2 which to me 2 is not several

    1. 2 to me is couple inches. 3 and up is several in my opinion

  32. John says:

    John Dee seems to think there will be fresh snow for Christmas let’s hope! :)

  33. John says:

    Can this ever be just a weather blog without people going against other people and being rude???

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      No.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I’ve been here for many many years, it isn’t possible.

  34. Brad says:

    It looks like a big warm-up after this stretch of cool air. There is some indication of a week or so of 50s and 60s towards the end of the month; it will be very interesting if that verifies.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Interesting. Where are you seeing 50s/60s?

    2. John says:

      Yeah where are you seeing that?

      1. John says:

        None of the models go beyond the 20th

    3. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Doubt it will get into the 60′s….the European long range is indicating that the polar air we are about to get will recede, and during the week of Xmas, it will warm up, followed by a stormy end of the month with rain/snow. If there is a big enough storm, perhaps 60 is possible.

      1. John says:

        Yeah 60 is defiantly possible but a whole week of it or more is very or highly unlikely!

      2. John says:

        Weather trends I know can be wrong a lot but they don’t have any temperatures above 40 for the rest of the month!

      3. Bill Steffen says:

        Brad was probably looking at the forecast for Orlando. No 60s here.

  35. Brad says:

    GR already +6.5F for December. That will drop and then rise again sharply following this stretch of coolish air.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The U.S. was colder at 9 am this morning EST than ANY HOUR ALL LAST WINTER! It’s cold Brad…about as cold as it can get in early December across the U.S. Lots of snow…high albedo…cold PDO…not going to be a warm winter.

  36. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We’ve had big, puffy flakes in this area all morning. So far, we just have a dusting, because it is very “airy” snow. It sure is pretty!

    1. John says:

      Here too! The NWS has us getting an inch tonight so we shall see if that happens!

  37. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Glasgow, MT is currently at -23. Their forecasted high is -14. Interestingly, their high one year ago was 51.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Must be the center of the arctic air out that way. Check out these low temps…

      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MT&prodtype=public

      1. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

        Those are wind chill values I believe. Very cold though…brrr

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Thanks for pointing that out.

          If you keep scrolling down, you’ll get to the low temps. When I posted the link, they were at the top.

  38. norm says:

    Afternoon Bill, I read an article this morning on MSN from 2 scientists from Germany saying it appears we are heading for a 100 year cooling cycle called the “devries” event and by 2100 world wide temps will be approximately those of the ‘little ice age’ (1870), wondered if you’d heard anything in the discussions similarly.

    Norm

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Where have you been? We have talking about the ‘MINI ICE AGE for months now! The global cool down has begun! Ger ready for a lot of COLD and SNOW!

      1. norm says:

        I know WE have, however I haven’t heard much from other sources,lol

    2. Brad says:

      You mean the Daily Caller?

      1. norm says:

        it was on my startup page which is MSN, however I did see a link to the DC while searching so it is possible that was the original source

    3. Mike in Hamilton says:

      How about a link? I’m interested in reading this…

      1. norm says:

        GermanHerald.com/…/2331/Prof_warns_Mini_Ice_Age_has_started

  39. John says:

    I just talked to my friends in Arkansas and they had some major icing last night followed by a couple inches of snow, they don’t have power but are going to stay with their aunt who has power until theirs comes back on, there’s also some tree damage!

Leave a Reply