1-3″ of snow this PM/Night – Slick Roads

December 8th, 2013 at 3:14 pm by under Uncategorized

Local     Snow will total 1-3″ this afternoon and night, with a little more snow north and west of G.R. than to the southeast.  More snow showers, accumulating snow and drifting on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern U.P. and much of Wisconsin.   Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 2 feet of snow on the ground. . Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map.  We are now up to 59% of the Lower 48 states with a snow cover, more than 3 times average.  Saturday was the coldest day in the U.S. ever in the first half of December (since satellite data began in 1979). Here’s record temperatures in N. American over the past 24 hours.  It’s pretty easy to tell where the cold front is on the temperature anomaly map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts.   The long range looks cool…right now I’d say Dec./Jan. are going to end up about 2 deg. colder than average.

Low temperatures Sunday am:  14 G.R., 13 Holland, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 9 at Lansing, Hopkins and Hastings, 8 at Mt. Pleasant and Big Rapids, 7 at Fremont and Entrican, 6 at Belding and Cadillac, 5 at the Kalamazoo Nature Center, -1 Baldwin, -9 Marquette, -17 Wakefield.   Keep checking back to this thread for these links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations.

We’ll have to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air settles in next week. Here’s some river water temps. Also, many inland lakes will be icing up in the next 10 days. Beware of early thin ice.

80 Responses to “1-3″ of snow this PM/Night – Slick Roads”

  1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Why is there lake enhancement occurring when the wind is to the east? Or is that a conversion layer?

    1. Scott says:

      I did say “I was wondering” if there was, I wasn’t sure – the appearance appeared to be the case, but I had the same question as you did (do).

  2. John says:

    The NWS is still not issuing an advisory tonight, hopefully the roads do not get bad then!

  3. Some slick spots are beginning to develop. As I drove from Byron Center to where I am here in Lowell right now snow was beginning to cover some roadways and blow around. Only a dusting where I am in Lowell right now compare to an inch in BC

    1. John says:

      You have already received an inch from today? Wow I didn’t think it was snowing hard enough to put an inch down already!

      1. No thats total snow cover before today. Got about a half inch today so far

      2. Mike in Hamilton says:

        I have an inch by 4pm, so that sounds plausible to me…

  4. Mike (Berrien county) says:

    By the looks of the radar, you would think we’d have at least 2 or 3 inches down already. Not so. Most of it has been virga with only very light stuff reaching the ground so far. So far just a dusting here.

    1. John says:

      The highest amounts are going to occur up here! We already have a dusting and it’s only been snowing for an hour! So I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2-3″ up this way! But I know you like the snow so I will share ;)

      1. Mike (Berrien county) says:

        We’ll get an inch….maybe 2 if we’re lucky. More snow developing back into central IL heading this way… plus a little lake enhancement behind this as the colder air arives. So there. HA!!!!! :-)

        1. John says:

          Haha okay I feel better now that I have shared ;)

  5. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    It looks like the heaviest lake effect snow will occur on Tuesday night between 1-96 and 1-94. That includes GR, all of Allegan again, and even down to possibly Kalamazoo. Some LE snow may hit areas farther north such as Muskegon, but it will be much lighter without the help of the convergence band. Bill, how much snow do you think could accumulate from this? 6+?

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Some of it is a hunch, but I think this could wind up being one of those surprisingly large LES events where some people could get 14, 15 inches. Certainly not everywhere, but if you get lucky enough to be underneath a heavy band for a few hours, that would put a pretty good dent.

    2. John says:

      The 18Z NAM is more WSW thru Tuesday evening turning more northwest after that, not looking at much of a west wind!

  6. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Bummer. NWS is only talking about accumulating snow tonight, Monday through Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night, and next Saturday and Sunday. Hardly wintry at all, right Travis?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      + 1 Trillion

      1. Sprites(Holland) says:

        lol

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      That model has been showing that all day and I have no idea how it is getting those totals. It will likely change by tomorrow. The event will have W winds Monday night, SW winds early Tuesday, quickly switching west Tuesday-Tuesday night with heavy snow from 1-96 to 1-94 and then NW Wednesday afternoon after the shortwave. And all areas will get snow on Wednesday, not just the lake. So Im not sure where that model is getting its information. Of course, the forecast could easily change by tomorrow, so who knows? If anything, this event will be great for west wind folks, at least according to the current data. Again, this could change, so check back tomorrow morning for an update. I actually will be away from the data from tomorrow morning until about 6:15PM at a swim meet so have fun tracking! Maybe the event will change 24 hours from now!

      1. John says:

        This is the first time it has showed this today the latest NAM guidance shows SW flow Monday night into Tuesday then we take a short break before the second wave comes through and brings another area of light snows to Michigan then after that the lake effect gets cranking again but for northwest flow areas! These models are very confusing haha let’s just say at this point any flow could happen but it’s just wait n see!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Okay, thanks. Btw I just PERSONALLY asked the NWS about the storm and they said it looks like a west wind event, Nathan. Check on their Facebook page :)

        2. John says:

          They haven’t checked the latest NAM haha okay I will ;)

        3. John says:

          Okay I did I’m fine with a west wind as long as it’s not too strong where it blows the heaviest snow accumulations well inland! I’m in a perfect spot for westerly flow as long as it’s not too strong, however areas just north of me such as North Muskegon and Whitehall are not favored in a west wind so they would receive significantly less than me so I’m glad I’m not farther north!

      1. John says:

        That was an earlier run for the 12Z but well have to wait and see what happens J-rod!

        1. J-rod says:

          NWS definitely increasing snow forecasts (Ottowa County at least), not that that means much though. Like Kyle I am always looking for a day off of school…or two

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Wow what a difference between models. I guess Ill just sit back and see what happens. (Unless the weather men tell us the forecast and actually confirm it)

        1. John says:

          Yep it’s just sit back and see! The 18Z NAM still gives GR and Forest Hills near 6″ of snow so it’s not a huge difference!

      3. John says:

        Snow days are fun! I remember them as a kid always waking up and hearing that school was closed for me excited! We even had some snow days when I lived in Arkansas!

        1. John says:

          Whoops that was supposed to go to J-rod!

  7. INDYY says:

    Bill can we send some of this snow to travass he seems to think we don’t get any snow in Michigan ……We have snow on the ground again out thee YARDofBRICKS,,,,,INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      Travis…Can Run but…He can Not HIDE !!! Climate Change is Talking Him For A RIDE!!! Stay CUED All of Michigan ( nOt Just Flint )))))). ;-)

  8. John says:

    I have had about three quarters of an inch of snow so far today close to one inch!

  9. Scott says:

    Predictions for total snowfall accumulations:

    WRF model runs predicting a lot of general 1 to 4″ total accumulations through Tue morning 12Z. Most areas running 2 to 3″. Tue-Wed should for most areas with a mainly westerly flow add 2 to 5″. Subtracting about an quarter inch for today -it looks to me like total snow accumulations could run 3 to 7″ during this bout. I would probably say 4 to 5″ would probably be the mean average. But this is only based on a WRF run. Let’s look at NAM.

    NAM model runs push out a lot of 3-4″ snow at a 10 to 1 ratio. So that would be .30 to .40″ total liquid precipitation. However, with colder temperatures, the ratio would be higher. So if you take .30 to .40 inch of liquid precipitation , with temperatures between 18 to 23, the snowfall/meltwater conversion table would push that in the neighborhood of 4 to 6, maybe even 7″ of snowfall during that period, which, actually, would line up easily with the WRF accumulation projections.

    GFS is out to lunch.

    So, some areas in my opinion could receive as little as 2 to 3″ total accumulations, and others could receive as much as 5 to 7″ of total snowfall accumulations – some areas possibly more.

    With 4-5″+ in a 24 hr period expected in some areas according to NWS grids with the westerly component flow Tue-Wed (I have 2″+2″+1″ in a 24 hr period), I won’t be surprised for advisories to be issued for that period of time. But make no mistake – if there’s snow, it’s a slow go. Be careful on the roads out there.

    These calculations are amateur guesses and subject to change and heavy error.

  10. Wow the model run gives me 6-7″!! More than before. Ohh and the roads are very slick out there take it slow I just went to the gas station and it was bad

    1. Wait nvm that was the 12Z run

    2. John says:

      The 18Z still gives you 5-6″!

      1. Heaviest totals I think will be in Muskegon Ottawa Kent and Allegan from the LE. I wonder if we will get any LESA issued or LESW

  11. INDYY says:

    Still snowing travass u want some???? INDYY

  12. Scott says:

    I think we can all make this simple and say:

    It’s going to snow, and snow enough for winter sports and great postcards and photography. Skiers will be skiing, and kids will be on their sleds going down hill. Driving will be impacted some, and it’s going to look a lot like winter and Christmas.

    So 4″, 6″, 7″, or whatever – it’s going to be a wintery wonderland!

    (Except I understand why the difference in a few inches is so critical to students: A couple inches can mean a day off or a day inside studying calculus. Those days are LONG gone for me. So for you guys, here’s hoping for more so you can enjoy the weather.)

    1. John says:

      As hard as it’s snowing now and some freezing drizzle overnight I could see some schools being closed tomorrow, so some kids might get to enjoy the weather tomorrow!

      1. Make it Byron Center! Lol I hope to see on tv Byron Center Public CLOSED haha if not tomorrow next week!

        1. John says:

          Haha I can’t make it but maybe it will make it! ;)

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The radar returns are looking good for Kent County. Bring it on! Lets see its the week of the 8th and we are getting accumulating SNOW! Who knew?

  14. I think the GRPD is overdoing the road conditions. They say stay off the roads. Thy act like it a blizzard

    1. I mean roads are slick but they send out a warning like its the blizzard of 78

      1. John says:

        There have already been numerous crashes though including one in downtown GR!

        1. But I will say the roads can be the worst with minimal snow

      2. Jack says:

        I’ve been listening To Police Monitors and There Are Tons off Accidents due To Ice on Roads. Good job GRPD !!

      3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I agree with GRPD, in fact I believe that the NWS should have issued either a WWA or Special Weather Statement to alert drivers!

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The current NAO is trending down and the PNA is trending up. That is good news for SNOW lovers. We have a ton of COLD and SNOW on the way this week ,this month, and this winter!

    1. Jack says:

      Let’s See it’s The 8th TODAY !!! And Snow & Wind Coming Most of This Week !! GREAT CALL!!!! RDB/ Rocky !!! Stay Cued, for Long Range Updates from THEEEEE. JEM !!!! Rock ~n~ Roll….ROCKster !! ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Now we are talking! The RDB Rocks and the long range JEM is on fire! Bring on the blizzard for the end on December! Are you ready to ROCK!

  16. kevin. w says:

    Well I got 2 inches here in Mt. Pleasant and its snowing pretty good probably about 4 or 5 by morning. By looking at the longer range its looking pretty cold and snowy and the we could be looking at a pretty decent storm around christmas basing on whats going on out in the far pacific and the MJO can go going. Have to wait and see if the super ensembles can pick up on storminess coming after the 18th. :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Sounds good and keep the data and the good news rolling! We are heading for a GREAT winter!

  17. Scott says:

    Northern Indiana has gone with a FRZA due to changeover to freezing drizzle.

  18. INDYY says:

    Hey travasssss still snowing in Michigan…………INDYY

  19. Scott says:

    In addition, it appears NWS has upped my snowfall for the tue-wed timeframe.

    It now shows for E. VB Cty 2″+2″+2″ for a 24 hour 6″ snowfall. That’s nearing warning criteria.

  20. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    The roads are unbelievably awful here. The intersection of Forest Hills and Cascade is terrible. The car to the right of me started sliding and lost control (But recovered) when taking a right.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Okay, they have been worse, but the roads are certainly bad. Im making it sound like a huge blizzard or something.

  21. Brett says:

    Snow day for rockford tommorow??

  22. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Heavy band over GR looks like it will exit soon, but heavier snow is coming over the lake! Maybe we will add another inch or two to the snow we have received so far. Also, while I was driving, the snow sounded like sleet and a mix of icy pellets in the snow. I think their may be just a little icy precipitation mixed in, but it is mainly snow right now.

    1. Brett says:

      Any snow days?

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        No, not with 1-3 inches of snow :p but drive safely!

    2. John says:

      If you were down in Arkansas they would already be closed for tomorrow, they close with every inch snowfall they get!

  23. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Really? Snow day for Monday NOT!!!

  24. Jack says:

    For All you Folks who Have Be On Roads Tonight & Monday a.m. .. Slow Down, Take it EASY ,!!!! Per: FOGHAT :::: CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JoQYzn2J54.

  25. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I have a feeling that I will be waking up to over the 2 inch predicted snowfall from the NWS. There is still so much more snow coming a cross the lake!!

  26. John says:

    We have a couple new inches of snow on the ground since 3pm this afternoon and it looks like another couple more maybe even more could fall tonight! We’re already getting more snow than the expected us to!

  27. INDYY says:

    MON. SNOW TUE. SNOW WED. SNOW FRI. SNOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL HMMMMM!!! COULD IT BE WINTER TIME IN MICHIGAN???? INDYYY

  28. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    Driver’s need to cowboy & cowgirl up. This is Michigan,and it’s almost winter. You have to take it slow and watch-out for the other driver. We get snow and ice and we have to deal with it.

  29. Anyone have a link to spotter reports? looking for reports in the Holland area.

    1. Haanstar says:

      Just got back from holland maybe a couple inches of snow. Highway is covered

  30. Highways arent actually in to bad of shape. In downtown Grand Rapids they are actually just wet since I just drove through there. I started to get more ice at about 28th st which seems like an odd spot with heavy traffic but there was. Then the highways were mainly wet after 28th st. Side roads in Lowell and Alto are not to bad, but are the worst with east and west roads. The roads around Byron Center I think were the slickest I experienced on the way home, while 131 was mainly just wet

  31. INDYY says:

    over 3 inches now out at thee YARDofBRICKS….!!!!!!!!!!!INDYY

    1. John says:

      Where do you live INDY? I’ve yet to see a report of three inches tonight!

  32. Any idea when the lake effect will begin to start up? in the futurecast I never heard bill point out when it would start. The graphic went through 7pm without lake effect

  33. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Too funny – the NWS just put out a Special Weather Statement!!

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