Coldest Day in U.S. This Early in Satellite Era

December 8th, 2013 at 12:52 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

high temps  Click on the image to enlarge.  This is the high temp. map from Saturday (form SUNY).   From Dr. Ryan Maue:  “Since 1979 using hi-resolution NCEP CFSR reanalysis data, December 7th is earliest sub. 15°F CONUS average temperature day — previous Dec 16, 1989.”  The average Continental U.S. temperature bottomed out at 14.5 Sat. AM.  Some of the cold temperatures are nothing short of extraordinary.  Havre, Montana had a high temperature of -21 on Saturday – that was 53 degrees colder than average!  For 3 days now, temperatures have averaged 47 degrees colder than average at Havre.  The -14 high at Great Falls MT was 49 deg. colder than average, the high of -13 at Sheridan WY was also 49 deg. colder than average.   The -14 high temp. at Miles City MT was 44 deg. colder than average.  Colorado Springs, with an average high temperature of 43 has now had 4 consecutive days with highs of  18, 6, 6, 7.  Garden City KS (avg. high 47) has had highs of 15, 16, 13 the past 3 days.  A few other highs with the average high in ( ):  22 Eugene OR (46), Brownsville TX 47 (73), Dallas TX 27 (59), Lubbock TX 17 (55), Laredo TX 39 (69), Little Rock AR 28 (54), Harrison AR 20 (50) , Las Vegas NH 17 (47), Chadron NE -2 (39), Wausaw WI 0 (29), Duluth MN -4 (25), Memphis TN 29 (54).

Model update:  The overnight European doesn’t take the temperature above freezing in G.R. until the 17th.  The Euro. gives G.R. 0.12″ precip. Sun. night (1.5 -2″ snow), with more snow showers into Monday night and another .11″ on Weds.  All total G.R. would get maybe 5-6″ in the next week.  The NAM gives G.R. 1.8″ of snow Sunday night, Muskegon gets 2.6″ and Ludington 2.9″.  It has another 1.5″ Tues. PM.  The GFS plot gives G.R. .10″ Sunday night (1.5″ of snow maybe) and the first above freezing day is next Saturday.

Speaking of cold, this is Antarctica.

119 Responses to “Coldest Day in U.S. This Early in Satellite Era”

  1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    NWS says due west wind Monday-Tuesday and the NW wind Wednesday night when the lake effect diminishes.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      And TWC says WSW wind, but I’ll go with the NWS for now.

    2. John says:

      The NWS actually has southwest winds Monday night-Tuesday then turning westerly Tuesday night-Wednesday then more northwesterly Wednesday night into Thursday but by then the moisture will be shallow so northwest flow areas will not see much snow!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        You are right, WSW winds turning W. Then once the wave moves through Wednesday afternoon the wind direction shifts NW and the LE weakens. Of course, the most snow should fall Tuesday with the short wave. In fact, all areas between 196-194 could see moderate snow then.

        1. John says:

          I’m sure some areas between 96 and 94 Tuesday into Wednesday could see 1-2″ per hour snow rates!

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Could it be that GR sees blizzard conditions? Imagine that!

  2. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Yikes! One for the modern record books.

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Another temperature bump up from Wood on the forecast. Nothing too unusually cold here. 20′s and 30′s now.

    NWS not saying much snow at all this week – even for lake effect areas.

    1. John says:

      Did you read their latest update? They said that heavy snow will set up in the westerly flow lake effect belt regions!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You have a severe sickness! Please seek help immediately!

    3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      It is 17 degrees right now with the US in its coldest beginning to December in recorded history! Yet you still think it is warm :p even in Detroit it is 21 degrees (with a high of 28) which is 10 degrees below average! And lake effect snow areas will be seeing snow this week with at least some accumulations. It is too early to call this event a bust.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        His global warming sickness is raging out of control. Logic and facts just get in his way!

    4. John says:

      Why do you spend so much time worrying about our weather Travis? You live in Flint worry about you’re weather and well worry about ours!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        He is West MI TROLL!

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I take it as he enjoys riling up people on here. Many times I have wanted to reply to him, but I resist, as I know that only feeds the mouth of trolls.

    5. Mike (Berrien county) says:

      NWS GR…. “THE
      SFC TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
      A HEALTHY I-94/I-96 CONVERGENCE BAND WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
      SHOWERS SPREADING WELL INLAND TOWARD JXN FOR A TIME.”

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Nice! +1 trillion!

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Well as of now the “heavier snow showers” may only produce 1 to 2”

        LOWS NEAR 15. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
        TUESDAY
        WINDY. SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES.
        HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST
        20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
        TUESDAY NIGHT
        MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
        15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
        WEDNESDAY
        MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 15 TO
        20. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
        WEDNESDAY NIGHT
        PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
        SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 10.
        THURSDAY

        SlimJim

        1. John says:

          The NWS is unsure yet as to how much were going to get, they are going on the various side to make sure they don’t bust it which is a good thing!

        2. John says:

          *cautious* not various!

        3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          All snow fall amounts several days out are tricky. But in reading the “forecast” the NWS is thinking GR may be looking at a “total” of around 2 to 4″ in two events.
          SlimJim

        4. John says:

          And that could very well be but the NWS is just being catious right now, I’m sure hoping for more but I’m waiting until it happens to get excited!

        5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Exactly Slim. Just have to read the forecasts.

    6. yooper4021 says:

      Another pot shot at WOOD / Bill. Classy. Very classy.

    7. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Travis, I’m pleasantly surprised that you think below average temps are nothing too unusual. Now if we could only get you to think the same way about above average temps…

      Go Green.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        +1 trillion!

    8. yooper4021 says:

      Let’s go to the data…. Draw your own conclusions.

      Forecasted high temps for Sunday through Thursday (posted 12/6 AM):

      WOOD 27, 31, 21, 19, 24
      WZZM 27, 31, 21, 23, 30
      WXMI 25, 30, 23, 20, 25
      NWS 25, 29, 22, 19, 25
      Accuweather 26, 29, 22, 19, 25
      Weathertrends 24, 27, 20, 20, 25

      Forecasted high temps for Sunday through Thursday (posted 12/8 AM):

      WOOD 25, 29, 25, 21, 24 (+2 total)
      WZZM 27, 28, 23, 19, 25 (-10 total)
      WXMI 25, 30, 23, 20, 25 (no change)
      NWS 26, 28, 23, 20, 23 (no change)
      Accuweather 26, 29, 28, 23, 24 (+9 total)
      Weathertrends 25, 27, 28, 22, 24 (+10 total)

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        LOL!!!

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Wow what an increase for WOOD :p

      3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        That is the funniest post that I have seen in a while! Like I said earlier – Travis will not let the facts get in the way of his “global warming” sickness and hype! That is hilarious!

      4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wood had 15 degrees for a high a couple days ago.

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Keep it classy, Flint.

    9. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Loser. The headline says it all.

      “Coldest Day in U.S. This Early in Satellite Era”

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Not even close to any records here.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Your point is moot. The post is about the US, not here.

  4. Across wendt park says:

    Any updates on snow totals expected by wed

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The long range RDB model BULLSEYE! The week of the 8th COLD and plenty of SNOW! Reality for the week of the 8th – COLDEST week of the season with plenty of SNOW chances for GR baby! Get ready to To ROCK! I love it!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I’m kind of creeped out on how you predicted the exact week of the big arctic chill! I guess the RDB model is accurate after all!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Not creepy – just the facts from the RDB!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I would love for Christmas to actually be winter like! I just hope we don’t have to deal with a push of warm air in order to get that…

    2. Mike (Berrien county) says:

      Bring it on!

  6. Mike (Berrien county) says:

    NAM starting to look more promising for me too in terms of lake effect as the winds veer more NW after being SW & W for a time mid week. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

    1. Mike (Berrien county) says:

      (not sure why the huge spaces between words…lol)

    2. John says:

      It would be a very limited window for NW flow, moisture is very limited after it turns northwest but well see!

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      These snowfall totals are underdone. As we have discussed before – the models do a bad job of predicting lake effect snowfall accumulations and they are usually too conservative! Expect some locations to see double digit totals!

    4. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I like the 5-6″ for most of Kent county on that map. Too bad it’s the NAM. Oh well, even a blind squirrel….

    1. John says:

      The NAM also does! So hopefully we can get some decent accumulations with this!

  7. John says:

    I’m surprised there’s not at least a special weather statement out for the snow and freezing drizzle tonight, seems at least that there should be a sws!

    1. Trust me they will once the roads turn icy and slick. Always do when the event is coming to a close

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        +1

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      If they did it now, we wouldn’t get anything. :P

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Why?

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I am sure we have a shot of seeing some snow in the next week or so. And if everything pans out some places could see several inches of snow (3 to 6). It should be noted that the NWS is not all that excited about our chances on getting more then 4” of snow over the next several days.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

    As for early December cold we had some cold days not that long ago

    12/8/1966
    Temperatures reach record highs in the mid 60s only four days after record lows on the single numbers at Grand Rapids. The high of 64 degrees on this date followed the low of 8 degrees on the 4th.
    12/8/2005
    Cold weather prevails during the first half of December with record lows of 2 degrees above zero set at both Grand Rapids and Muskegon on this date.

    In that 05 cold snap GR received around 6” of snow and that December was -3.3 below average and GR received 28.9” of snow that month, BUT it should be noted that January 2006 was MUCH warmer then average! (+8.8°) BTW the winter of 1966/67 was warmer then average in December and January but colder then average in February and Mach and it was a snowy winter In the winter of 2005/06 most of the snow that year fell in November and December.
    SlimJim

  9. I like the looks of these totats for me! 5-6″ for me!

      1. John says:

        Oh my the NAM is all over with the totals! I do not agree with the totals for me though because I do not think I will only recieve 3″ by Thursday in fact I could recieve 3″ tonight! I think 5-6″ is a good bet for you though Kyle!

        1. If that could come in the late afternoon and ovrnight that would mean enough for a snowday! but im dont counting on it

        2. John says:

          I highly doubt you will have a snowday tomorrow haha keep dreaming though!

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        That looks slightly right, but the heavier snow should be a bit farther north. And with the strong winds, the heaviest snow should push inland. I’m still not sure how much snow should fall, whether 3 inches or 9, but the heaviest snow should be in those locations.

        1. Im not saying tomorrow im talking nxt week

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yea I know.

  10. Scott says:

    I thought you guys would be interested to know within the last minute or two it started snowing here in E. Van Buren County. Nice sized flakes. So that band coming up is producing snow that is beginning to reach the ground.

    Now, I will stand back while all of you do a collective “YAY”.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Yay, here it comes! Thanks for the report btw

  11. Sprites(Holland) says:

    Doesn’t look like there’s going to be too much of a warm up or a big snow melter any time soon. Seems as though most places should start building a snow pack tonight that will get a few inches added to it here and there over the next couple weeks. Not the most exciting pattern, but I would think some places in the Lakeshore counties might have 8″ + on the ground by this time next week. We shall see. Good pattern for winter sports.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I agree! I’d rather we get lit bits of snow as the week goes on, than get a big storm that brings a big warm up and “maybe” some flurries on the back end.

  12. John says:

    The latest update from the NWS suggest that the snow will not enter Michigan until after dark, I’m they are clearly not looking at the radar!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      It’s entering dry air which will weaken it. Moist air arrives after dark so the snow will strengthen then.

      1. John says:

        Doesn’t seem to be weakening to me!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Well thats what the NWS thinks! Although here is a new update:

          LATEST RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRYING TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN
          THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW MVFR CIGS NOTED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES IN
          ADDITION TO KJXN. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE KJXN GO VFR FOR A
          COUPLE OF HOURS. CENTRAL IL/IN SEEMS TO BE THE AREA WHERE CIGS
          CONSISTENTLY GO MVFR. THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO LOWER
          MICHGIAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRY TO DEVELOP.

          A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TOO
          BEFORE PCPN ENDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

  13. John says:

    I know it’s the GFS but here is the GFS snowfall amounts! Note the GFS does better with system snows than lake effect snows!

    http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

  14. Scott says:

    Snowing at a nice steady clip here. Roads/sidewalks and lots are becoming snow covered.

    I’m wondering if we have lake enhancement going on down here. Seems like it’s overcoming the dry air nicely in this part – returns over the lake look really impressive.

  15. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Donut hole shrinking fairly quickly. I’m expecting the snow to start in GR sooner than forecast. See how hard it’s snowing in Philly? Hard to see that as a good thing for the Lions.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Yeah, I have family in Lancaster, and it is dumping snow there right now.

  16. Is this snow coming in earlier than anticipated, because I could have sworn laura said last night that it would be about 6pm before it arrived

    1. John says:

      Yeah it is moving in earlier, it’s trying to fight the dry air as it does, most areas from 96 to the south will see the snow by 2pm areas north of that it’s going to be hard to get the snow until tonight because my guess is the dry air will override the snow and dry it out north of 96!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      yes!

  17. Kris says:

    Anyone watching the Lions today? Wow – now THAT is some snow!!! Big piles of snow on the field and can barely see the Lions (wearing white).

    1. The snow looks so cool! very impressive snowfall rates!

  18. And to add I don’t see where its trying to overcome dry air because the snow is almost up to Wayland which is just south of me

    1. John says:

      There’s lake enhancement going on right now which is out wining the dry air!

      1. Very impressive dark blue returns on radar!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          The wind is east so lake enhancement should not be occurring…

  19. Scott says:

    Flakes are getting larger here in E. VB… Radar filling in nicely to the SW. Wouldn’t be surprised if it reaches GR within the next hour to hour and a half.

  20. John says:

    It’s already trying to dry out as it heads towards the 96 corridor so I think its going to have a hard time getting north of 96!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It will be snowing in Northern Kent county by 4 PM! Get ready baby!

  21. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The latest RDB model snowfall forecast for GR!

    Today and tonight = 2.25 inches
    Lake effect Monday night thru Thursday = 4.5 inches
    Total = 6.75 inches!

    Get ready – ROCK n ROLL will never die!

  22. John says:

    I’m beginning to think that areas from 96 to the south could actually get higher snowfall amounts then north of 96! Here’s hoping they don’t need anymore snow up north!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Learn how to read a map.

  23. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    From looking at Michigan Webcams, I’m sort of shocked to see I have more snow at my house than many of the locations up north in the Lower Peninsula.

  24. Snow is about 5 miles south of me now!

  25. John says:

    Starting to get some flurries here now!

    1. Scott says:

      That’s impressive, considering how weak the echoes are over your area!

      Noticing it’s filled in pretty much all across SW Lower Michigan, and echoes are increasing in Indiana too. Snow still performing quite efficiently E. VB County. Roads are snow covered, however, snow is very prone to blowing around. Leaves a great powder trail behind moving vehicles. Ski places have got to be loving this.

      Looks like Allegen Cty is under the heaviest bulls-eye right now.

  26. John says:

    Looks like areas north if Muskegon are going to be shafted haha suckers!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      No they’re not. It’s just because the local radar is crap for this area. Check out this radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mkx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

      Oh, and don’t boast about things…that’s when you end up losing. :P

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Think again! There will be plenty of SNOW North of Muskegon both tonight and this week!

  27. Sprites(Holland) says:

    Light snow falling in Holland

  28. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I thought the snow was supposed to arrive to 1-94 after dark, not 1 PM! Strange?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Its called the models are a joke!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Haha, alright! I was looking for a more scientific answer, but sure :)

  29. Sprites(Holland) says:

    I know its early, but this little system seems like one that could surprise some people. I think we may see some 4 or 5″ totals in a few spots

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      But don’t be surprised if it’s a bust.

  30. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Wow, guys! Check out this webcam from near Lancaster PA, where I grew up. If you have ever been to the area, it’s pretty hilly…especially along the Susquehanna River, where this webcam is located (Columbia). Check out all the cars that can’t get up the hill.

    http://www.abc27.com/category/192687/penndot-traffic-cameras#nogo

    Click on the link for “Columbia” on the map

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is old news! That is only for the today’s event, then the Lake effect will be get cranking, however just a dusting in Flint with tempos in the 40′s!!!!!!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I doubt we’ll get that much.

  31. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Been snowing moderately for about an hour and a half here, and been snowing since about 12:15. Yesterday models were showing that the snow wouldn’t get here until like 9 or 10PM. Only off by about 10 hours…not bad! lol

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      LOL

  32. John says:

    Beginning to get a little bigger snowflakes here! Look at that impressive band over the lakeshore! That’s heading northeast and should get me in the next 20-30 minutes! :)

  33. John says:

    I’m in Allendale right now just driving around and it’s snowing really hard! They have at least a couple inches of snow already on the ground!

  34. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    12Z NAM gives me almost triple of what the 12Z GFS gives me. So at least the NAM is picking up on some lake effect.

  35. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

    Per NWS afternoon AFD
    TUESDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE A CONVERGENCE BAND BETWEEN I94 AND I96 AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BOTTOM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE CAN BE SOME OF THE STRONGEST LAKE BANDS TO EFFECT THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BIG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINANT BANDS THAT OCCUR IN A LONG FETCH. CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THESE I94-I96 BANDS AS LARGE THERMAL GRADIENTS EXIST ACROSS THEM. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND AMOUNTS…BUT WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THINGS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Seems almost like deja vu of last year on from January 20-23. Moderate lake effect snow, and then heavy snow with the disturbances going through the area. Looking good for my area.

      1. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

        Yeah or the February 1st dump last year, if I remember correctly, that started out as a “1-3″ event” and ended up the next morning around 9″.
        Both had some nice convergence bands with winds veering between 260°-320° if I remeber right.

  36. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

    Light snow here for the last 2 hours, less than half inch accumulation.

    The Lions game has been great to watch with all that snow! There’s no excuse for the Stafford fumble that just happened, need to fall on it and take the loss!!!

  37. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    0.75″ here so far today. 1.75″ on the ground. First time since last winter that our grass has been completely covered.

  38. SW Kent says:

    66.9 percent of the country under snow. 26 percent a year ago.

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