Winter Weather Advisory

December 10th, 2013 at 1:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted by the GRR NWS for the lakeshore counties from Van Buren north, plus Kent, Newaygo and Lake Counties for the day tomorrow (not tonight, though we will continue to see snow showers and slick roads tonight).  3-5″ are expected in the advisory area (isolated 6 or 7 possible), plus winds if anything will be stronger than today and temperatures a few degrees colder, so there will be blowing and drifting snow (considerable in the outlying areas).  Gusts to 35 mph today in G.R. and Holland and gusts like that are likely tomorrow.   I’m working on graphics for 10 and 11 now.   The temperature in Chicago at 8 pm EST is +7 with a wind chill of -12.

Evening run of the NAM (caribou) gives G.R. 2.6″ (that’s at the airport, there would be more to the northwest).  It also gives GRR 4.7″ of new snow on Wednesday!  The snow on the NAM starts at the airport shortly before noon…so run errands early.  It gives GRR the heaviest snow from noon to 3 pm, with steady winds of 22 mph – so quite a bit of drifting.  The model gives GRR a high of 21 tomorrow, 23 on Weds. and 19 on Thurs.   The average high for today is 37.  Other NAM (caribou) totals for Tues. and then Weds./Thu. in inches:      Lansing 0.2, 1.2   Muskegon 1.3, 2.2   Kalamazoo 0.4, 2.4   Jackson trace, 0.8   Pontiac 0.3,0.6   Big Rapids 1.7, 0.5   Mt. Pleasant 1.1, 0.2   Cadillac 2.5, 1.1   Ludington  1.5, 1.8   S. Haven 1.0, 6.7   Holland 1.6, 6.4.

CLIMATE NOTES:   G.R. hjs had 2.9% of possible sunshine over the last 7 days.  That’s 111 minutes of sun.  The last 7 days the average wind speed has been a healthy 11.6 mph!

European model gives G.R. 0.07″ precip. today (1.5 to 2″), 0.09″ Weds. (2″), 0.04″ Thurs. (maybe an inch), 0.35″ Friday night to Sun. AM (5-6″ if that’s right), 0.02″ Sunday, more flurries Monday.   The GFS plot has 0.07″ today (Tue.), 0.05″ Weds., 0.03″ Thurs., 0.13″ Friday, 0.17″ Sat.  and snow showers most days next week.  BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DO NOT HAVE THE TEMP. IN G.R. GETTING ABOVE 30 IN THE NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS KEEPS THE TEMP. IN G.R. BELOW 32 THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY!    The European has a low of 0 to +5 Thurs. AM and 0 to -5 next Monday AM.  The GFS coldest is -4 on 12/22.   Bottom line.

Here’s the 50-car crash near Milwaukee that was caught on a traffic cam.  Watch the whole video and note the (dumb) people who got out of their vehicles and started walking around!

204 Responses to “Winter Weather Advisory”

  1. Brett says:

    Fox 17 reporting HEAVY LAKE EFFECT TOMORROW POSSIBLE SCHOOL CLOSINGS.

    1. shelly says:

      LOL Don’t believe everything you read. At least that’s what others tell me! :)

    2. John says:

      I’m just quite surprised they actually say possible school closings, but who knows maybe there will be a few schools that will close for precaution or maybe their just trying to get the kids excited lol!

  2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=615046781897739&set=a.156511374417951.42940.142533802482375&type=1&theater

    Here’s a good pic showing what areas are expected to get the most on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like I could be snowmobiling by tomorrow night or by Wednesday.

  3. Brett says:

    I’m in possible school closed zone in that map from nation weather service that’s surprising since FOX says only 3 inches from now till Wednesday

  4. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Judgement day #2 for whateverTrends vs acculess is a week away.

    Prediction from back in late Novermber for December 16 (highs in Detroit):
    Weathertrends Low 40′s
    Accuweather 30°

    The NWS is currently predicting 19 for detrot… Not looking good for either. Maybe no points awarded?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Fail x2

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Wpw. When you’re that far off, you should subtract points.

      1. yooper4021 says:

        Oops, meant ‘wow’. Fingers haven’t thawed yet this morning…

  5. John says:

    I could see schools down near Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, and South Haven being closed Wednesday as it looks like they are in for some big time lake snows in that area!

    1. John says:

      Meant Thursday

    2. Antwain cottrell says:

      Exactly,

  6. INDYY says:

    Yeaaa again models suck Bills blog has it all!!!This is a snow blog now!! 6-12 inches with blowing blizzard conditions coming tomorrow!!! The sprites are going down tonight as it’s cold outside!!! Bill is ready…. INDYY……

    1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      Something I like about these systems is EVERONE has snow cover now (to my knowledge). Tomorrows snow event will hit the northern areas (GR). Then on Wednesday… Its kalamazoos turn to see the snow pile up! Thursday-the weekend there are chances for even more snow for everyone. So we are all gonna see good snow totals this week! Make sure to drive safely! I have already seen more than enough idiots on the roads today (as well as slide offs).

      Yes: tomorrow evening is going to be a very messy commute for GR… If this event hit 6 hours earlier i am pretty certain many area schools would of been closed. Just make sure to play it safe and take your time getting from point A to point B.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Did GR really only get 0.4″ today? It looked like it was really snowing most of the day. That is what the climate report currently says.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      That’s all I got today as well.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Yeah, but more inland looked like it was getting dumped on. Hmmm

    2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Is it just me, or does Ford Airport seem to ALWAYS have a lesser total than virtually everyone surrounding it? It also is always one of or the warmest location, although that’s not surprising given the planes, urban heat island, etc. Just interesting.

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        Whats this crazy talk of airports being warmer…look at flint..or not.

  8. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    TV 17 already listing “heavy snow” a few minutes ago for Saturday. …

    1. Scott says:

      Ok, I apologize – that’s way too premature to list “Heavy Snow” for Saturday when we still have 4 days to go before we can firm up on the predictions.

      We just need to be aware of the possibility right now – but I just disagree to put that in a forecast grid this early in the ballgame. Unnecessary hype.

      1. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

        Don’t worry….they still had a partial sun showing above “heavy snow”… :)

  9. Redd_Leader (Hamilton) says:

    I hope this LES event isn’t mis-forcasted like it occasionally can be. Cuz if it’s right there’s going to be a lot of BRAAP this weekend!

  10. If South Haven, Battle Creek and Kzoo get good snow wednesday, isnt that a WNW flow? and not NW? NW is lakeshore then coming in by saugatuck down through central VB county and into western st. joseph

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Yes, Wednesday is suppose to be WNW. Kzoo(Oshtemo) usually does really well with a WNW wind.

      1. Cool! I should get in on some of that, as GR is usually the cut off point in a WNW flow

      2. Scott says:

        Tomorrow should be nice. But in E. Van Buren County, I am more excited about Wednesday. Travis, who is just up the road, probably will get a really decent accumulations both days based on where he’s sitting.

        1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          That is usually the case. I should get a decent snowfall both days with a westerly influence to the wind.

  11. John says:

    The latest WPC QPF gives me near .9 of precipitation which would be all snow in the next 5-7 days that’s nearly a foot of snow! :) same for GR and lakeshore areas from Muskegon to the south to South Haven! :D

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    1. The sweet spot is Muskegon down the South Haven over to 131 westward!!

    2. Mike (Berrien county) says:

      Would be over a foot at 15:1 or 20:1 ratios!

  12. For a good example of a WNW flow for Wednesday, here is a good representation from Feb. 1. 2013

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioxosWU4DF0

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      According to that video it was a NW wind. And you can tell on that radar because it had a sharp cutoff on the eastern edge of the bands. WNW usually has more blunt edges on the eastern edge of the bands. I did get 4.5″ on Feb. 1st with that flow.

  13. INDYY says:

    Over 6 inches out the YARDofBRICKS As of 11pm With 6+ more tomorrow we will have well over a foot of snow buy this time tomorrow night on the ground!!! INDYY..

    1. Haanstar says:

      How do you always have more snow than anyone else? To many sprites seeing double?

        1. Brad says:

          Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that!

        2. Jack says:

          Could Be Possible BILL !! Anything is POSSIBLE when comes 2 INDYY Speaking as His UNCLE JACK !!! “” INDYY or INDY…What a GREAT GREAT GUYYYYY “”"”…. stay Cued .. ;-)

  14. Scott says:

    LES snows starting to pick up here a little bit. Pretty good flakes mixing and floating down with smaller ones. (E. VB County)

  15. Brett says:

    Indy I think 6 is a bi much for tomorrow where do you live?

    1. Jack says:

      The YARDofBRICKS !!!! Near The Grand River !! IWS is usually RIGHT !!!

    2. John says:

      6″ is not a bit much, there could be some areas that do receive as much as 6-7″ tomorrow, where the lake effect is more persistent!

      1. Brett says:

        Grand river is a long river

  16. John says:

    The one thing I hate about this stupid wind is it blows all the nice fresh snow around and leaves big bear stupids spots in my yard!

  17. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z NAM gives us even more impressive lake effect, and even a longer duration as well.

  18. Brad says:

    How ’bout dem Bears?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Temperature +3 at the end of the game in Chicago, wind chill as low as -15. The Bears are keeping pace with the Lions, who get to play indoors the next couple weeks. Next week the Lions are on Monday Night Football.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Their defense really misses Peanut, but McCown is playing great.

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      -138.5 degrees. lowest ever.

  19. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    oops. -135.8

    1. chad says:

      That’s chilly.

  20. Antwain cottrell says:

    I’m confused is Kalamazoo getting watches and warnings.

  21. Judy says:

    Yup….stupid people getting out of their cars in that pileup. I know some of them were trying to help others, but they put their lives in danger. Then it looks like some of them decided to try to cause an accident on the other side of the freeway by walking close to those lanes. There were a few who made it through the chaos unscathed….bet they needed a change of underwear!

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