Thursday AM – from Oak Ridge

December 19th, 2013 at 12:13 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

It’s a little after midnight – I’m sitting by myself in a Krystal Burger in Oak Ridge.  This place has WI-FI (and 3 small burgers, medium fries and a large decaf coffee for $2.99 plus tax!).  The sky is clear with a full moon high overhead and Jupiter close to the moon, paralleling the moon on its nightly east to west journey across the sky.   Today was a glorious, sunny day.  We drove to Knoxville.  The high in Knoxville was 47 and the average wind for the day was 2.9 mph.  We usually take a day while we are hear and go to the Blue Plate Special.  One of the local Knoxville radio stations (I think PBS) has a live concert from noon to 1 pm every weekday at their studios downtown.  There is a place out front which is kind of a Chamber of Commerce welcome site, where they have everything from local jewelry to postcards and you can buy a sack lunch.  They usually have two acts that split the time.   Today we had trio (singer and two guitars) and the second act was Casey Jones.  I thought our sportscaster was down here doing karaoke, but it turns out it was a singer/guitar player from Copenhagen, Denmark.   After the concert, we did some shopping, checked out the city Christmas/Holiday tree and headed to Calhoun’s on the river for an early dinner.  There were two guys at the table next to us who sure sounded like Univ. of Tennessee football coaches (the head coach does a Monday radio show from Calhoun’s Mondays during football season.  I had catfish (so did my mother).  We went back and spent the evening at my mother’s.  The forecast down here is warm…upper 50s tomorrow…60s for Friday and the weekend.  But, we’ll start for home, trying to dodge icy roads.   Sorry, I haven’t been watching weather.  It’s a vacation, a change of pace for me and I really want to spend the time being with and helping mom.  My wife and I washed the outdoor light, raked the yard and cleaned the bathroom sink.    Tomorrow night, I”ll probably have more time to look at weather.  The storm is going to bring a nasty mix of precipitation to the southern Great Lakes, including some freezing rain.  Have a wonderful day.

Here’s evening run of the GFS snow cover…heaviest snow north of G.R.  240 knot jet over eastern N. America.  Quick flight from Detroit to Newfoundland!  20″ of rain fell in just 36 hours at Truong Sa Island, Vietnam.  Jerusalem breaks 134-year-old snowfall record.   Much of the Lower 48 States will see a cool Christmas.   GFS – Christmas Day – Chilly.  Here’s a shot of the Northern Lights from Norway.  Check out the light pillars in Findland.  Take a look at the six-sided polar jet pattern on Saturday…from the Cassini Spacecraft.  While much of North America has been colder than average…the global average temperature remains slightly above average.  Check out the heat in Australia.

The overnight NAM (caribou) has .05″ freezing rain for G.R. Thurs. night, 1/2″ snow Fri. PM/night and the main show starts shortly before midnight Sat night with a mix to rain at 32.3 deg.  With the cold weather we’ve had, the ground is cold and I’d be wary of ice even at 36 or 37 degrees.  The GFS plot has 0.32″ of rain at about 33 degrees for G.R. – could be a slick commute Friday AM – then 0.69″ of rain at about 32-33 degrees changing to snow.  That model has highs of 21 and 20 on Monday and Tuesday and it keeps temperatures in the single figures on New Years Day.  I won’t wait up for the European.  Here’s the snowfall forecast from Earl Barker’s site from the GFS and NAM.  The south edge of the heavier snow is a good place to expect some freezing rain.  HPC freezing rain forecast for Day 2 and Day 3.

501 Responses to “Thursday AM – from Oak Ridge”

  1. John says:

    Back roads are ice rinks!

  2. INDYY says:

    What can u do when u can’t drive because of ice on the roads u stay home and drink sprites and track rack and stack Saturday’s snow storm!!! INDYY

  3. Johnny says:

    ROADS ARE SO SLICK HERE IN ZEELAND. BR CAREFUL

  4. Roads getting icy here in Muskegon County. Currently freezing rain here.

  5. Todd In Nunica says:

    Just brought the trash out to the curb and bout fell on my arse…..guess ill be laying down the salt come tomorrow morning.

  6. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Less than 30 minutes ago I posted that everything was just wet.,,,,,starting to get a coating of ice now,.,,temps at 31.0

  7. 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin says:

    No matter which side of the hot/cold, humidity/snow spectrum one falls we can all agree that ice falling from the sky is no good. Best of luck getting to work in the morning, folks. Be safe. Be kind.

    OH HELL YEAH

  8. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z Canadian has really backed off on the freezing rain, and is basically all snow now for everyone north of I-94. Gives us heavy snow late Saturday before little snow/mix, then back to heavier snow after around 1AM Sunday morning. Best run for snow lovers since the Euro a few days ago.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Sounds great!

  9. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Parked my truck in front of the garage which is on a slight slope. Went in the house and came back out and the truck had slid back about 9 ft. It is icy here.

  10. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Yup, we’ve had freezing rain for a couple hours here. It is very light…but my car had ice all over it, as well as the driveway and pretty much everything else. The snow pack is very dense now, and has a nice,firm crust ontop thanks to the ice.

  11. Brett says:

    What happened to all the freezing rain?

    1. Aaron H (NE GR) says:

      It doesn’t take much, so while the radar may not show a large amount of precipitation, the freezing drizzle we have received in the past 2 hours here in N Grand Rapids was enough to make the side roads extremely slick. Main roads are wet and well-salted, but side roads and untreated parking lots are very, very icy already.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Where do you live? Many area are getting some. Tonight’s precip isn’t supposed to be heavy.

      1. Brett says:

        Rockford got the snow day!!!!!!

  12. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Just got back home, main roads and back roads here are just wet at the moment and my thermometers are saying 35 degrees right now. My subdivision on the other hand was very icy (roads were snow covered and had just melted throughout the day, the cold ground was enough to refreeze the water even though temps are a few degrees above freezing). This could happen on back roads in the Kalamazoo area overnight so be VERY careful when driving!

    Also worth mentioning: it was drizzling lightly (good recipe for black ice to form) and it is very foggy in spots.

  13. Scott says:

    There’s one other possible scenario on the weekend storm that I hadn’t given much thought to, but is rather common in these scenarios:

    Moisture-Robbing Thunderstorm Squalls and Complexes.

    I haven’t heard much discussion on this – but SPC is highlighting the possibility of severe weather over the SE United States on Saturday. Anywhere from a 5 to 30 percent chance of severe thunderstroms. This thunderstorm activity will be multi-modal as a linear organized system with isolated supercellular structures in front with embedded meso rotation structures within the line. Moisture will be rich, and thunderstorm precipitation intensities will be rather high in those areas down south. Farther north, very high precipitation rates are expected over areas now covered by Flood Watches. 1 to 3 or more inches of rain is likely in these areas.

    So the question is: Will convective activity “rob” northern areas of needed moisture to get high precipitation rates with snow and/or freezing rain? I haven’t heard it discussed much. It would be awful if everything went according to plan to have precipitation rates much lower then expected due to thunderstorms to the south. Just another point I wanted to bring up since Gulf moisture is expected in this system.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      From what I have seen, it looks like the chance of severe thunderstorms would be Saturday while the storm system is to our south. I believe that’s why they haven’t mentioned severe storms robbing moisture from northern locations.

  14. Scott says:

    * 5 to 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a single point within the outlined area of risk in day 3 highlight as plotted.

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