Friday AMDecember 20th, 2013 at 12:30 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Friday AM – I’m somewhere in S. Ohio, past the buildup of Cincinnati. The car thermometer climbed as high as 63 in far southern Kentucky Thurs. pm. We stopped (as we usually do) at Renfro Valley and did some shopping. I always say “hi” and pet the very cute and very friendly cat that lives in the restored cabin by the entertainment center. Before we left Oak Ridge, we went for a walk along the Clinch River did some wash and recycling. We filled up in Clinton TN, where gas was $2.98. We’ll fill up again here in Ohio before we cross the border. The snow that was on the ground down here in S. Ohio/S. Indiana has melted, except for the piles. We have Christmas with Gayle’s side of the family Saturday PM/Night, then we’re supposed to head to Traverse City early Sunday to hear the Christmas Concert at the Methodist Church and then have Christmas with daughter #3. Needless to say, the weather does not look good. The early morning GRR NWS discussion says “THE CURRENT THINKING IS 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. A CORRIDOR OF AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO GRR TO ALMA LINE.” (and it may be more than 1/4″ of ice. – there could be a 50-75 mile wide area of significant ice with numerous tree branches coming down and some power lines).
The Winter Weather Advisory for areas north of a line from S.Haven to north of Jackson runs until 7 PM (Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham Counties were added to the Advisory). It’s for light freezing rain (and some mixed sleet) and icy roads. The morning commute will be tricky for many of you. Check with DAYBREAK from 4:30-7 am and the “cut-ins” during the TODAY SHOW and on WOTV4 we have Good Morning America…and 24-Hour News 8 at Noon for the latest. The overnight run of the NAM (caribou) model gives G.R. 0.33″ of mostly freezing rain thru midday Saturday and the main shot of snow pellets to freezing rain to snow at the end of the event (mostly freezing rain) is 0.60″ with light snow showers to follow for Sun. night. That model certainly has the potential for significant icing and major travel problems. For Big Rapids, the NAM (caribou) has 0.33″ of mix early Friday then 5″ of snow from midnight Sat. to noon Sunday. For Kalamazoo, the model has 0.27″ of rain with temps. of 32-35 today, then 0.69″ of mainly rain at 32.1 to 32.6 degrees Sat. night into Sun. am. The GFS plot really any better…it gives G.R. 0,.26″ of rain to freezing rain today (mainly am), then 0.04″ of mix (which could be freezing rain) Sat. PM…then the main event 0.66″ of mostly freezing rain from midnight Sat. into Sunday with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. I probably won’t stay up for the European…again, this is a potentially damaging and dangerous storm…you need to stay up on the details. There will likely be power outages…prepare now, make sure you have food, water, flashlights…if you have a generator, make sure it’s well ventilated if you use it…watch for downed power lines…don’t park under trees that might lose branches…have some salt/sand/kitty litter/de-icer ready for the sidewalk and driveway.
G.R. finally got above freezing (to 39) on Thurs. The last time we were above freezing was Dec. 5th…so that was almost 2 weeks continuously below freezing. January sure starts off cold and snowy on the GFS. They had a a 5.2 magnitude earthquake about 130 miles southeast of San Diego, CA. Looks like there’s going to be significant flooding for the Ohio River Valley (where I am now). Wow, look at how cold it’s going to be across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Christmas Eve morning. Natural Gas Climbs to highest price since 7/2011 This with more Arctic Air on the way. Here’s a pic. of Tropical Cyclones Amara and Bruce in the Southern Indian Ocean. Here’s an interesting loop of Bruce. From NBC News: “Climate change expert sentenced to 32 months for fraud, says lying was a ‘rush‘ “. Severe thunderstorms possible in the southern U.S. – check the SPC Severe Weather Outlooks. Between Christmas and New Years…cold centered in Great Lakes. More cold to start January. NAEFS Day 11 shows upper level trough in the East (it’s cold!). GFS with major cold for early January! GFS says White Christmas for most all of Lower Michigan. It looks like all of Hudson Bay is now ice covered, with ice building the the bays of the Great Lakes.