Friday AM

December 20th, 2013 at 12:30 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory Friday AM – I’m somewhere in S. Ohio, past the buildup of Cincinnati.  The car thermometer climbed as high as 63 in far southern Kentucky Thurs. pm.  We stopped (as we usually do) at Renfro Valley and did some shopping.  I always say “hi” and pet the very cute and very friendly cat that lives in the restored cabin by the entertainment center.   Before we left Oak Ridge, we went for a walk along the Clinch River did some wash and recycling.  We filled up in Clinton TN, where gas was $2.98.  We’ll fill up again here in Ohio before we cross the border.  The snow that was on the ground down here in S. Ohio/S. Indiana has melted, except for the piles.   We have Christmas with Gayle’s side of the family Saturday PM/Night, then we’re supposed to head to Traverse City early Sunday to hear the Christmas Concert at the Methodist Church and then have Christmas with daughter #3.  Needless to say, the weather does not look good.  The early morning GRR NWS discussion says “THE CURRENT THINKING IS 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH  OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. A CORRIDOR OF AROUND  ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO  GRR TO ALMA LINE.” (and it may be more than 1/4″ of ice. – there could be a 50-75 mile wide area of significant ice with numerous tree branches coming down and some power lines).

The Winter Weather Advisory for areas north of a line from S.Haven to north of Jackson runs until 7 PM (Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham Counties were added to the Advisory).   It’s for light freezing rain (and some mixed sleet) and icy roads.  The morning commute will be tricky for many of you.  Check with DAYBREAK from 4:30-7 am and the “cut-ins” during the TODAY SHOW and on WOTV4 we have Good Morning America…and 24-Hour News 8 at Noon for the latest.  The overnight run of the NAM (caribou) model gives G.R.  0.33″ of mostly freezing rain thru midday Saturday and the main shot of snow pellets to freezing rain to snow at the end of the event (mostly freezing rain) is 0.60″ with light snow showers to follow for Sun. night.  That model certainly has the potential for significant icing and major travel problems.  For Big Rapids, the NAM (caribou) has 0.33″ of mix early Friday then 5″ of snow from midnight Sat. to noon Sunday.  For Kalamazoo, the model has 0.27″ of rain with temps. of 32-35 today, then 0.69″ of mainly rain at 32.1 to 32.6 degrees Sat. night into Sun. am.  The GFS plot really any better…it gives G.R. 0,.26″ of rain to freezing rain today (mainly am), then 0.04″ of mix (which could be freezing rain) Sat. PM…then the main event 0.66″ of mostly freezing rain from midnight Sat. into Sunday with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.  I probably won’t stay up for the European…again, this is a potentially damaging and dangerous storm…you need to stay up on the details.  There will likely be power outages…prepare now, make sure you have food, water, flashlights…if you have a generator, make sure it’s well ventilated if you use it…watch for downed power lines…don’t park under trees that might lose branches…have some salt/sand/kitty litter/de-icer ready for the sidewalk and driveway.

G.R. finally got above freezing (to 39) on Thurs.  The last time we were above freezing was Dec. 5th…so that was almost 2 weeks continuously below freezing.  January sure starts off cold and snowy on the GFS.  They had a a 5.2 magnitude earthquake about 130 miles southeast of San Diego, CA.  Looks like there’s going to be significant flooding for the Ohio River Valley (where I am now).  Wow, look at how cold it’s going to be across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Christmas Eve morning.  Natural Gas Climbs to highest price since 7/2011  This with more Arctic Air on the way.  Here’s a pic. of Tropical Cyclones Amara and Bruce in the Southern Indian Ocean.  Here’s an interesting loop of Bruce.   From NBC News:  “Climate change expert sentenced to 32 months for fraud, says lying was a ‘rush‘ “.  Severe thunderstorms possible in the southern U.S. – check the SPC Severe Weather Outlooks.   Between Christmas and New Years…cold centered in Great LakesMore cold to start JanuaryNAEFS Day 11  shows upper level trough in the East (it’s cold!).  GFS  with major cold for early January!   GFS says White Christmas for most all of Lower Michigan.  It looks like all of Hudson Bay is now ice covered, with ice building the the bays of the Great Lakes.

24 Responses to “Friday AM”

  1. Aaron H (NE GR) says:

    Safe travels on your way home, Bill. It’s definitely getting slick around here tonight – but the salt trucks are out in full force to keep the main roads as clear as possible.

  2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z NAM gives us a total of 1-1.25″ of precip during the next 84 hours. 00Z GFS gives us 1.5-2″ of precip during the next 120 hours. All be it snow, freezing rain, sleet, or just rain our snow pack is going to be full of moisture. It will take a lot longer to melt, and could cause some major flooding if a meltdown/rain event would happen in January. I remember the last time we had a huge snow pack with a mini melt and rain. It than got cold and we received a foot of snow on top of that…we had standing water everywhere with 1.5 feet of snow cover.

  3. Bnoppe says:

    For kzoo 32..1-32.6 would be freezing rain along 94 surface temps are way down into the upper 20′s

  4. Dylan says:

    So…now it’s sounding like it COULD be a pretty major ice storm for Grand rapids?? and not the foot plus inches of snow that was so hyped I guess…HOPEFULLY that changes!!! I would much rather have snow…ice causes so much damage! But not up to us! lol Guess we still have to wait and see!!

  5. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Wow!! Just got back from rescuing my fiance, his car slid off the entrance ramp on West River DR to Southbound 131. He is OK and so is the car, after an 85 dollar winch-out fee :( We drove really slow all the way back home to Kentwood. Its a skating rink out there. Be safe everyone.

  6. Stephen(NorthMuskegon) says:

    The 00z Euro is out and scanning the Accuweather forums it gives mostly everyone 6+ inches of snow!:
    http://westernusawx.info/forums/uploads/monthly_12_2013/post-2476-0-66920800-1387520162_thumb.png

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Seems very similar to the 00Z Canadian. Not sure on what the Canadian snowfall map is, but the area of snow looks very similar.

  7. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

    Be safe! Roads are slick here too.

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Well the NWS just turned Ingham county purple. I hope school stays open. Our kids have their Christmas parties and musical programs this afternoon. I’m at 32 now. Suppose I’ll let the dog out and see what’s going on outside.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Still all liquid outside. Praying it stays that way.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      So much for that. All schools in this area are closed – even Lansing Public, which is lucky to close once or twice each year.

  9. jerry hoag says:

    WOW, sounds like we will have a major ICE STORM?????????? If everything goes the way it is setting up. We will have over an 1/2 inch of ice!!!!! Enough to cause power outages and tree damage and such!!!! Everyone keep an eye out for this event that is still unfolding!!!!!!!! KEEP SAFE!!!!!!!

  10. Scott says:

    As I expected, Grand Rapids holding off on a watch this morning due to uncertainties. They seem to fear it might shift north again because the Low is still off the coast.

    I can report that there is an Ice storm warning for Jefferson and Lewis counties in New York from Fri Eve to SUN Eve for 1″ of ice accumulation though! That’s some SERIOUS icing! Heavily worded warning product citing “impossible” driving conditions to potentially come for them.

    1. suehelen says:

      My daughter lives in Carthage. They’ve stocked up on batteries and such.

  11. jerry hoag says:

    Okay Grand Rapids NWS………..Lets put out a Ice Storm Watch/Warning of some sorts. This sounds like a for sure thing for the Grand Rapids area this Saturday night and Sunday!!!!!!!!!!!! 1/2 inch to almost an 1 inch of ice accumulation for West Michigan cities!!!!!!!!! This is a major issue and needs to be noted and the community/viewers need to be alerted to this possibility!!!!!!!!!! Don’t wait til the morning of Saturday!!!!!!! Come on NWS, give West Michigan a huge heads up so we are not caught with out getting all the things we need in case of this Major Ice Storm situation!!!!!!!!!!!! The NWS is known for waiting til the last minute in our area to give us ample notice of impending weather!!!!!!!

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Especially in Winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. Andy says:

    Dude you really need to calm down before you give yourself a heart attack!!!!!! Its ice…not the end of the world!!! When they knew for sure what is up the right warnings and watches will be posted. So is relax and calm down till they know for sure what’s going on!!

    1. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

      I would not wan’t jerry hoag in my fox hole.

      1. jerry hoag says:

        You wouldn’t want me in your fox hole……Man come on please????? I will be much calmer now, I swear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No heart attacks for me, no strokes………….All relaxed and calm!!!!!!

    2. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

      Chicken Little.

    3. jerry hoag says:

      ANDY,, I am much calmer now……..thanks for watching out for me dude……..

  13. Jerry hoag says:

    Hey INDY!! They all thought I was going to have a heart attack.

  14. Dreamer says:

    you can take your major Ice storm and stick it where the sun don’t shine!! Im sick of freezing rain and Im annoying drivers that want to go fast in this. GO around me im going slow. I would prefer a major snow storm. Im in Blanchard Michigan!!

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