Friday Radar and Links

December 20th, 2013 at 1:58 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local We’ll start a new thread with radar and links. More in the thread below.  Watch Storm Team 8 for the updated forecast, road conditions and school/event closings.  During the night, we’ve had freezing rain from Allegan, Barry and Eaton Counties to the north with some light fog.  There are going to be some very slippery spots from ice on roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots this morning.  Here’s a few freezing rain reports and local weather observations.  Here’s a surface map (which at 5 am shows the front from the southern tip of Lake Michigan along I-94 to near Detroit).  The system coming in for Sat. night/Sun. has produced thunderstorms in the driest part of the U.S. (SW. Arizona), so you know it’s strong.  Here’s the (hundreds of) school closings.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations. Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 2 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

We’ll have to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air settles in next week. Here’s some river water temps. Also, many inland lakes will be icing up in the next 10 days. Beware of early thin ice. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

523 Responses to “Friday Radar and Links”

  1. Bnoppe says:

    00Z GFS coming in let’s see

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      21 hours in GFS still with the low over Arkansas. So far so good.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        GFS sticking to it’s story. Low goes extreme SW Indiana, to between Toledo and Cleveland. Maybe a little bit less QPF overall in this area on this run, but still looks nothing like the NAM. You never know, the NAM might be right on this one, but if it is, we’ll probably remember it years from now as “that one time the NAM was right”.

  2. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

    I do hope for a “BIG” storm but I am a realist. This thing could track one way or another and I am not feeling it. I am glad I have buried utilities in my neighborhood and am well prepared just in case. But don’t let your “hopes” cloud reality. This could be a bust. Either way, drink some Sprites and enjoy Mother Nature taking center stage.

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      I’ll take bust over ice storm of doom any day

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes, I fear that, and I am feeling it might become reality unfortunately.

      2. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

        Well Kevin, the kids and I have the next two weeks off and we are not traveling. I always loved sledding after a good ice storm and while today was great, nothing is better than riding on top of the snow, no matter what your weight. While I am not hoping for devastation for all… great sledding in icy conditions would be fun. I still have come to terms with a bust here though, afraid it’s going to happen.

  3. Bobby (Ada) says:

    00Z GFS Dryslot effect =|

  4. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Just remember through all the excitement of this pending storm, there will be people who are going to get hurt or killed because of driving conditions and rushing to get to relatives for the holiday season. Take it slow people, it’ll still be there when you get there as long as you take it slow, you’re not invincible.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      They’ll get hurt or killed because of their poor judgement or that of others. US traffic deaths overall are highest in the summer, can’t blame winter weather for that.

  5. Deb says:

    Was just outside for a few minutes and I think GR is in for it either way. Be snow or Ice. These trees around here are already coated pretty good. If we get more Ice or heavy wet snow we could be in for some major power outages. Better get to store in the morning and stock up on a few more supplies. Not trusting this one.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      If not groceries in general, I bet alcohol sales go through the roof tomorrow.

  6. John says:

    00Z GFS is farther to the north again

  7. Jack says:

    JEM Model UPDATE ;:;:;;:;;; Hi FOLKS Until This Storm is on Top Of US !! No One REALLY Knows EXACTLY , HOW this Winter Storm will Track or It’s Impact . So Just Kick Back, RELAX, and Get Ready for THE Show!! And DO WHAT Duh JEM MODEL Does Each & EVERYDAY ….CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUsv4Lb7EQs. ;-) . Cough, cough….. Lol….. ;-)

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I’m telling you Jack, FDM has been firmly planted on the ground, webs have not been up, so maybe this might be a bust ;-)

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      C’mon Jack. If you’re going to repeat the same JEM forecast for weeks, you can’t punt at the end. Admit when it fails.

      1. Jack says:

        Hasn’t Failed Imao….. So I refuse To PUNT ! If it Does fail …” I will Have To Eat, Crow Pie ” ! That ya can Be Sure ,, Until Then….Stay CUED !!! JEM has NEVER FAILED BEFORE !!! ;-)

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          No you’ll have to come up and kiss FDM’s Webs ;-)

        2. Jack says:

          LOL..Swatzoo !!! Until Then Here is a JEM Model CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPORA1k3qcs Turn IT YARDOF DUCKS!!!

        3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Ok Jack I didn’t expect that chick on the bike all spread eagled :-S

        4. Jack says:

          Whoops Sorry about That Swat_ Zoo !! I cued UP( pun intended) I didn’t Put up The Right Version of That FEATS TUNE !! Sorry Again…. But hopefully Ya got the JIST of what I was saying . JEM DON’T FAIL ME NOW!!! Lololo….. Stay Cued …. Plus I’m sure FBD knew ” EGG”actly what I was talking About….quack, quack…. Lol. ;-)

        5. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

          Nice V- Twins Jack!

  8. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

    Where’s Uncle Jack, Cue up… “Blame it on the rain!” for tomorrow into Sunday

    1. Jack says:

      Here I IS…Better Late Than NEVER !!! Lol… CUE THIS ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8b9HEIx5J8. NO RAIN, JUST SNOW SCOTT E…. stay Cued .. ;-)

  9. I have a good feeling we are gonna see a nasty ice storm from Muskegon Eastward and to the South

  10. Scott says:

    It is not further north. The positioning between the 18Z and 00Z to 33 hrs is almost completely the same.

    Here’s the problem. The large moisture slug over Ohio and Indiana. It is drier behind this slug, which is dropping very heavy rains and literally “grabbing” most of the moisture. The big difference between the 00Z and the 18Z is not location – it is that there is less precipitation behind the large heavy rain shield showing up on the 00z then was indicated ont he 18z. Also, the deformation axis to the sw is smaller and less pronounced.

    The heavy snow axis in the deformation zone over Wisconsin is more pronounced in it’s northern quadrants – and less to the south. This is not to say that there will not be icing. Icing still looks likely, as does snow. But if this is reading correct, amounts might be a little lighter then first predicted. At least that’s the trend here. Precipitation is in the same general locations, but looks like it will be a notch or two lighter then it showed before.

    My guess on why this is happening here has to do with less moisture working into the system due to the heavy rain complex to the east. The general system tendencies, positioning, and direction are the same as the last run. But the QPF is lighter, and it’s shrunk a tad. This might be a clue that there may not be as much moisture to work with as earlier runs indicated. if that trend continues, we’ll be dealing with less freezing rain, and maybe less snow, and this wouldn’t be *as* impactful. But that’s not to say it still wouldn’t have an impact, because it would.

    Not a bust – just a… shrinkage, I guess.

    It’s not going more north, the general tendencies and precip bullseyes are the same, but I’m noticing it’s not as moist and coming back drier. If that trend continues, it’s just not going to be as bad of a storm at all.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Sounds good to me.

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Don’t pay attention to John/Deb. Something different flies out of his/her keyboard ever few minutes. Then when he/she gets corrected, he/she latches on to the info an repeats it until the next model run.

      1. Deb says:

        Excuse me? I can’t comment on here? Sorry I’m not in your little weather click

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Hmmm….this is getting confusing. If you’re not the Deb who feuded with Jordan, moved to Oklahoma, changed your name, and changed it back, then disappeared for a long time, and then reappeared recently as John in Norton Shores, then I apologize and you’re welcome to comment. If you are, then you can still comment, I’d just advise Scott to not pay attention.

        2. John says:

          michael, I am not this Deb person you speak of, you said I was last week and now your accusing me again, I don’t knwo what your talking about, and I would appreciate it if you would not blame me for other peoples causes

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          That was not me last week Deb/John. That was someone else. Though I tend to agree with him.

        4. John says:

          michael just ignore me if you don’t like me then, you don’t have to comment or even look at my post

        5. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          John is my cousin. I promise ;-)

    3. Jeff (Portland) says:

      Yep, sounds like you know your weather . Ty:)

    4. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

      The…. and I hate to say this (first to mention in quite some time)… BUBBLE?!?

      1. Deb says:

        Um No I am not That Deb whoever she/he is. I just like reading this blog trying to learn what is going on and what is happening.

        1. John says:

          Me too, it’s amazing how rude people can be some times

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Well then, by all means, join in. If you’re giving an update on current conditions you’re observing, it helps others if you include you general location with your name.

      2. Scott says:

        Not the “bubble”. Actually, QPF is reduced system-wide on the back side of the system, as the models are getting a sense of how much moisture the heavy rain complex in the warm sector is actually using. If it was more local, it might look like the “bubble”, but the downward trend in total snow and ice accumulations is actually noted system-wide.

        Could this change? It could, if the precipitation in the warm sector is delayed, or lighter – and more moisture works its way counter clockwise into the complex. But my gut feeling is that it’s not going to be as dynamic in the way of accumulations both ice and snow as we first thought.

        I see a lot of bugs with this storm, both in precip and temperature profile – and I feel it’s not going to be the “epic” storm we first thought. I have to stay up now to see the next set of model runs this morning, and the NWS opinions on the AFD’s. I’ve had concerns since the beginning of moisture problems because of the heavy rain production in the warm sector. We’ll see if it’s a glitch or a trend in a few hours.

        1. John says:

          It is one of those storms that are very confusing, hopefully we don’t get a bust!

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          The 18Z actually seemed to be more likely to be a glitch. It had significantly more precip on the back side than any of the other recent runs.

        3. Bnoppe says:

          Well the 18z had more data to work with so who knows?

  11. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Woodtv shows all freezing rain starting around I-94 at noon and gr at 6pm. Not looking good, no snow or plain rain for west michigan.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Well, most of the precip was “ice”, though it showed it starting briefly as snow, then changing back to snow around 11 am Sunday.

  12. WickedTwister says:

    HOLY CRAP ROADS ARE HORRENDOUS! 100th street is sheet ice, going 20mph was pushin it in spots

  13. michael g (SE GR) says:

    If we can’t draw in at least a little bit colder and drier air before morning, we could be looking at some plain rain from this system, and that would be a bummer.

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      Better then freezing rain

      1. Jeff (Portland) says:

        Indeed.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Nah, at least freezing rain won’t melt my snow!

  14. John says:

    The 00Z GFS I guess is okay still shows 6-8″ north of 96 but is trending downward on the snow totals, I am sure hoping that rain and those severe storms do not rob our moisture

    http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=00&fhour=42&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

  15. John says:

    People are so rude on here give you a hint who it is (michael)

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      You’re kind of proving my point here, but I’ll move on……

      1. John says:

        Good you move on, and I’ll move on :)

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Give it up Johnathan.

        2. Jack says:

          You give it up 2.. Jordan aka..Fixxxer … ;-)

  16. Bnoppe says:

    I had a thought…has anyone noticed how bubbly Jeff Porter of WWMT is when gives the weather he has to be one of my favorite meteorologist

  17. Loving the ice on the trees! So cool! I absolutely love getting freezing rain. I find it more exciting than snow in my opinion as long as I’m not driving! The trees look fantastic, although there has been snapping sounds in the woods by my house tonight

    1. John says:

      Really you love freezing rain, your one of the few in Michigan that is a fan of the ice

      1. That’s ok with me! God makes beautiful things! He truely is amazing! He is the only one eho knows how this storm will pan out, so I’ll wait to see what he brings!

      2. John says:

        THat is very true Kyle, he does, he is the best! :)

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      You’re nuts if you love frezzimg tain.

  18. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

    Well last look at the radar before I call it a night. I always depend on what is coming versus what is “forecasted”. Looks like a LOT of freezing rain coming up directly at us from the SW. Will it go north of us? Dry Slot work it’s way in, robbed moisture from heavy rain down south? Felling a bust but preparing for the worst. Looks fast moving though, could come in earlier than planned and leave earlier.

  19. Larry from Hastings/Barry Co says:

    I got grandkids coming up on Saturaday from the Great Smoky Mountains. I know they are saying tornadoes from Texas to western Tenn. The weather will be a major story until Christmas, maybe until the New Years. Everyone be safe.

  20. Me :-) says:

    2 Inches of snow is all we are going to get? I hope my shovel can handle it. lol! I hope the freezing rain won’t be as bad either. Let it all go North. It won’t hurt my feelings. :-)

  21. michael g (SE GR) says:

    For what it’s worth, GFS has a few strong clippers and some FRIGID arctic air around and after New Years.

    1. Jack says:

      Yawns…whatever…. ;-)

  22. John says:

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    still looks good, but now I’m only in the up to 10″ range trimmed by 5″ from the 18Z run

  23. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its still 32° here with a light mist. We shall see what tomorrow brings.
    SlimJim

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