Main batch of rain, freezing rain this afternoon

December 21st, 2013 at 1:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   The main batch of snow, freezing rain and rain won’t get here until later this afternoon (from G.R. south) or early this evening (north of G.R.).  Main roads this Sat. AM are mostly wet, with icy spots on side streets and rural roads, and especially in parking lots and on sidewalks and driveways.   Here’s a few freezing rain reports and local weather observations. Here’s a surface map. Our weekend system  produced thunderstorms in the driest part of the U.S. (SW. Arizona), so you know it’s strong.

Here’s 120-hour snowfall from the GFS and 84-hour snowfall off the NAM model.  Morning model update:  NAM (caribou):  For G.R., freezing rain starts around 4-5 PM, 0.54″ with temps. from 31-33 degrees.  Then 5″ of snow on Monday (mostly PM and evening).  The rain is pushing up from the south…already raining at noon south of I-94.  Kalamazoo gets 1.33″ of rain at temps. from 32.3 to 33.3 and then 2.4″ of snow on Monday.  Cadillac gets 5.5″ of snow and a low of zero to +5 Tues. AM.  Big Rapids gets 0.46″ of freezing rain, then an inch of snow on Monday.  Holland gets 0.4″ of mainly freezing rain, then 6″ of snow from the model.   The GFS plot has a similar 0.53″ of freezing rain then an inch of snow as it temporarily ends…then a couple inches of snow Monday evening.  The GFS plot also has nothing warmer than mid 30s for the next 16 days for G.R.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations. Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 2 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

We’ll have to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air settles in next week. Here’s some river water temps. Also, many inland lakes will be icing up in the next 10 days. Beware of early thin ice. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

732 Responses to “Main batch of rain, freezing rain this afternoon”

  1. Ben (North Muskegon) says:

    Jeez that’s some serious freezing rain then

  2. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Looks like its almost over. radar is shrinking quickly

  3. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

    Gun Lake Casino, no power. Many of the bloggers, no power. It is raining sheets of ice folks… stay safe!

  4. chad says:

    What a disappointment of a storm.

    1. Scott E (Jamestown) says:

      How about you drive back roads from wherever your from to here?

  5. Scott says:

    Power here in E. Van Buren…

    But the trees are heavy laden and the cars are caked. Terrific crackling noise when the wind blows the trees. Not nearly as icy up north according to reports but definately is icy for sure.

    Dry slot is in town, but watching to see if it fills back in in time.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      There was a huge difference between our location and Oshtemo this afternoon. It was 33 with rain there, and 30 with freezing rain here. Their snow cover was still slushy, and ours was rock solid.

  6. I love it how the Grand Rapids area hasn’t seen major ice like this in a while, and yet here in Freeport ive gotten at least 0.25″ of ice with no Ice Storm Warning. I really do honestly think the NWS underestimated the size and impact this ice is having

    1. Scott says:

      They are probably one of the most conservative offices I’ve lived in, hands down. It probably took everything they had to issue the warnings to our east. I wonder if there’s some sort of quality control measure going on where there’s trouble if they issue a non-verified watch or warning? It’s literally pulling teeth to do it when it’s warranted.

      1. jerry hoag says:

        Scott you are so right on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Kyle my trees are covered in a thick glaze of ice, but I still have power thankfully! Tomorrow is gonna be a stay home day for sure!

  7. I honestly can not yet understand NWS logic for issuing warnings and advisories,because if a quarter of an inch + of ice isn’t Ice Storm Worthy then idk what is.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      They probably think .00008 over a quarter of inch of ice is enough….LOL

      1. Haha yeah. Theres is absolutely NO WAY a Winter Weather Advisory was suitable for the conditions out there. Very bad call by our NWS office. I don’t mean to get at them like this, but they did a terrible job with this storm. I know this one was a hard one to track and I give them credit for effort, but there results show

  8. Katie in Kentwood says:

    The radar is almost all diminished! I thought it was supposed to do this all night?

    1. jerry hoag says:

      It is filling in behind it.

      1. Katie in Kentwood says:

        ahh ok, that is probably that dry slot everyone was talking about

      2. Jack says:

        Oh Jerry.. I thought you were Calling it a Day, and hitting the Hay! Changed your Mind….aye ? Lol..stay cued

        1. jerry hoag says:

          Yeah Jack for a few anyway!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL.

    2. Ben (North Muskegon) says:

      Yeah it is filling in behind and that is what is suppose to produce all the snow. The models were pretty spot on, this is an odd and very interesting storm.

  9. Scott says:

    Keeping an eye on Chicago radar. Could be a bit of a recharge trying to get going.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Oh Yes it is trying!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. jerry hoag says:

    I wonder if they are rethinking what they wrote:

    ISSUED AT 942 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

    WE WILL BE LEAVING THE HEADLINES AS IS THIS EVENING. WE HAVE MADE
    A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE FCST INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS A
    LITTLE UP NORTH…AND KEEPING PCPN FREEZING A LITTLE LONGER DOWN SOUTH.

    THE SYSTEM IS GOING DOWN PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
    PCPN HAS CHANGED TO ALL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
    CWFA AS TEMPS FINALLY CAME DOWN TO…OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE
    CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA IS SEEING P-TYPE CHANGE BETWEEN
    SLEET…FREEZING RAIN…AND SNOW. THE SNOW IS JUST STARTING TO
    ADVANCE INTO THE NRN COUNTIES.

    WE DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR CHANGE IN P-TYPE NOW AS THE TEMP PROFILE
    HAS NOW SETTLED IN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAVE TAKEN PLACE AND
    WITH LIMITED ADVECTION EXPECTED NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHAT WILL
    HAPPEN IS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA IS
    EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA TOWARD 06Z
    TONIGHT. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE PCPN QUITE A
    BIT…AND COULD EVEN CHANGE IT TO JUST FZDZ.

    WE HAVE LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE FOR THE NW PORTION OF
    THE CWFA. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE THE NW 1/3RD OF
    THE AREA…AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUN MORNING AS THE DEFORMATION
    PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM NOW ACROSS SE IOWA AND NW ILLINOIS WILL
    MOVE IN ACROSS THERE. MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT AMOUNTS WILL NOT
    BE QUITE AS ROBUST AS EARLIER THOUGHT…AND THE APPEARANCE OF THE
    DEFORMATION BAND IS NOT LOOKING EXCEPTIONAL.

  11. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Saw several flashes to the south 30 minutes ago….lightning ? Tranformers blowing ? Thought I heard several gunshots in the woods across the street at my neighbors. After the third, heard a continuous crash, and realized it’s trees coming down.

    As of now, .25-35″ ice. Just changed over to flurries after 9 hrs of ice. Temperature has dropped a degree to 30 now.

    Woodstove loaded fully and dampered down. Power still on. Ought to be interesting in the morning, probably get the saws fired up and start on next winters wood supply.

    Goodnight all.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Good Night Paul!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stay Warm!!!!!!!

  12. jerry hoag says:

    I am going to go to bed now to!!!!!!!!!!!! Jack yes I mean it too!!!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Hahhaaa…Famous Last Words…Jerry HOAG !, Be Blessed…. & Stay Cued

  13. Scott says:

    Chicago radar now showing it’s entire county warning area filling back in with precipitation. Light at the moment, with heavier embedded areas.

  14. Jack says:

    GOOD NIGHT ALL…..Just a SONG Before I GO…CUE, Crosby,Stills, and Nash :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YGTPvDoJyM

  15. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Okay, here are my pictures of ice accumulations so far. 1/3-3/8″ of ice accumulations. I measured a 6.5″ icicle on the plant in the 2nd picture.

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152068950306418&set=pcb.10152068950466418&type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152068950421418&set=pcb.10152068950466418&type=1&theater

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