A shiverin’ end to 2013/start to 2014

December 26th, 2013 at 1:22 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

snowflakes shirley jones   Snowflakes Christmas Day – pic. by Shirley Jones.  First, look at the latest CFSv2 forecast for January AND February!  It’s a long ways out, but the model says this will continue to be a very cold winter for much of the U.S. and southern Canada.  Second, an update from Consumer’s Energy on getting the power back on to everyone.  They say, “As of 11 a.m. Thursday, 86,500 Consumers Energy customers remained without service. Since noon Saturday, the storm has caused more than 348,000 outages, or more than 19 percent of the utility’s 1.8 million electric customers. It is the company’s largest Christmas-week storm in its 126-year history and its largest ice storm in more than 10 years.”      Looking at this, I’d say we have the best chance of freezing over the Great Lakes since 1979!   We’re up to 30.8″ of snow for the month in G.R. (10th snowiest Dec. ever in G.R.) and 33.2″ in Muskegon.  Snowcover this morning:  6″ Lansing, Hastings, 7″ G.R. Ford Airport, Hopkins, 8″ Holland, 9″ East G.R. and Grandville, 11″ Big Rapids, Alma, 13″ Rockford, Reed City, 14″ Muskegon, Hart, 15″ Fremont, Scottville, 18″ Traverse City, 22″ Newberry, 24″ Benzonia, 26″ Bliss, 45″ Painesdale.  Delaware in the U.P. has had 137″ of snow this winter so far.   Looks like about 3 ft. of snow on the ground at Krupp’s Resort in the U.P.  Check out the reindeer cam and the snowman cam in Gaylord.  Here’s the Spyglass Condos Cam – lots of ice at the beach already.   December is now running 4.1 deg. colder than average in G.R. and we’ve had only 15% of possible sunshine this month.  We’ve also had measurable snowfall on 18 of 26 days so far this month.

Temperatures warm up some as we approach the weekend.  We’d warm up more if we didn’t have snow on the ground (we go to +6 at 850 mb on the GFS), but if we can make mid-30s, esp. with a couple hours of sun, we can melt some of the ice off the trees and wires.  Then it’s back to Arctic Air, with temperatures falling on Sunday and stuck mainly in the teens during the day from Monday thru Friday of next week.  The GFS plot has just a high of 13 for G.R. on Weds., 12 on Thurs. and 15 on Friday.

My fav. S. Hemisphere meteorologists at MetSul report temps. over 100F in Brazil and ArgentinaAnother big, windy storm to blast Ireland and the U.K.   Research vessel trapped in Antarctic ice (in summer).  Note huge increase in Antarctic ice extent in the past year.  3.63″ of rain since yesterday evening (thru 1 PM Thurs.) in Miami, FL.  Most of Alaska is cold.  This am:  -49 Eagle, -48 Northway, -45 Bettles, -39 Fairbanks.

53 Responses to “A shiverin’ end to 2013/start to 2014”

  1. yooper4021 says:

    Officially a Top 10 December snowfall for GR in 2013…

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=99116&source=0

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      This year will most likely move into 6th place. That would mean 5 of the top 6 would be from 2000-2013. That is pretty impressive especially since the last few Decembers have basically been snow less.

  2. My current snowcover sits at 10″..and will likely add more to that once we get past this little warm-up

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Wow, you’ve had 2-3 FEET of melt this season? We’ve only lost 6-8 inches of snow over here. Pretty incredible.

  3. Ben (Charlotte MI) says:

    Perfect. Hopefully Saturday we can melt some of the stupid ice. Once that is gone, I can get back to enjoying the cold weather. Take away the ice storm and this has been a perfect start to winter.

  4. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    The snow that’s heading towards us appears to be shrinking away rather quickly, according to radar.

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Oops! It’s filling in again.

  5. Zach says:

    Over 20 waterspouts happened on lake superior due to over a 50 degree temperature between the water surface and air temperature. Amazing video.

    http://stormchasermovies.com/video-winter-waterspouts-over-lake-superior-in-michigan/

  6. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Second disturbance is moving across the lake. Expect lake effect snow showers to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours with 2-4 inches of accumulation (according to the NWS).

  7. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Does anyone know what location in Kent county has seen the most snow this month? I’m assuming it would be the SW or NW corner?

  8. INDYY says:

    BREAKING NEWS COLD COLD COLD COLD !!! STAY TUNED!!! INDYY!!

  9. Brad (Van Buren) says:

    It has been a very cold winter so far. I am not buying ANYTHING over 8 days out, but I’m also NOT doubting that it will be cold in Jan/Feb. Feels kinda weird though as it has been pretty cold for so long, it makes it seem like we should have a lot more snow on the ground than we do. Usually central Van Buren gets hammered by convergence along I-94, this hasn’t been the case this year. While we do have snow on the ground, we don’t have nearly as much as the counties to the North of us, or even GR for that matter. It’s still early in the game, so we might get the winds to shift in our favor, but then again maybe it’s the year of cold with little snow in my area. Honestly, I would rather it stay cold all winter and mess with 1 big thaw over 4-5 mid winter messes, but that RARELY happens. Looking good so far though.

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    What an absolutely INCREDIBLE start to WINTER! I just got back from the trails over by Muskegon and all I can say PERFECT conditions and scenery! Bill keep the good news coming about the COLD and SNOW! I love it!

    1. AJ (Cedar Springs) says:

      +1

  11. Brad says:

    The GFS is overdoing the cold, but we should see a day that fails to reach 20F. In the longer term, we’ll see if the massive high pressure ridge verifies for mid-January. We could see highs approach 70 in the border counties, and an extended period of 60s. Wild and wacky weather. I hope the cold wins out.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Ya right! What a joke!

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Too much egg nog.

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      60s to near 70? In Michigan? In January?

    4. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Do you mean this massive high pressure ridge Brad???

      http://t.co/bz2NHVo2fy

  12. kevin. w says:

    WOW I see most of the ensemble models want to give northern Michigan a snowstorm and the central/southern areas a good icestorm the first week of January which could be crippling. Its still about 7/8 days out but most of the ensemble models have been hinting at this but will see how things play out. I see what Bill was saying up on his post about the potential for freezing rain, so will have to see how this works out. I feel that within this winter pattern there will be one or two massive storms before we turn into spring.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Lets hope the SNOW line moves farther South this time and GR just gets hammered with SNOW, COLD and more SNOW!

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The good news just keeps rolling and rolling! I just checked and we are in another WWA and the radar is staring to fill in again!!! Now the question is when will Kent County see their first WINTER STORM WARNING! I predict it will be the week of 1-6-14! ROCK n ROLL baby! Just an unbelievable start to WINTER!!

  14. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    “As lake enhancement works in concert with isentropic lift… the hot spots this evening for accumulating snows should be Muskegon… Spring Lake… Grand Haven… and Holland. The inland extend of the heavier snows is questionable… but parts of western Kent County such as Grandville and Byron Center should see some some of the heavier snow showers.”

  15. INDYY says:

    GETTING VERRY HEAVY SNOW OUT AT THE YARDofBRICKS!! NO BRAD ABOUT IT!! INDYY!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      +1

  16. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

    Lightly snowing here all day. I would say we are having an “old fashion winter.” Very much like we used to have many years ago.

  17. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Beautiful outside today, finally bagged a deer,

    I sure wouldn’t mind a nice one or two day warm up to get the ice off the trees before we get a repeat.

  18. dereks says:

    Hey Bill,
    Can you guys fix your online video forecast, it doesn’t want too load or play if it loads. Maybe it’s my computer, but the one I use at work does the same thing. Probably a good time to remind people to shovel off there roofs with all the ice and snow on it.

    1. Barb says:

      “their”

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Wow Babs. Thanks for clearing that up.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        It is bad form to correct grammar on an internet blog. Most use devices that autocorrect and proofreading is not expected or required.

        You need a better hobby. I suggest collecting stamps.

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I love those CFSv2 model runs especially the one for February. Six to seven degrees below average means a ton of COLD and SNOW! Keep it coming! ROCK n ROLL will never die baby!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      You’ve been right on all with the cold and snow. GR is now about 8″ above average snowfall. All the snow drought hype at the beginning of December is quite comical now.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        +1 trillion million!

  20. GunLakeDeb says:

    The Reindeer Cam is how we knew my daughter had electric restored in her neighborhood – you can see the lights for the reindeer yard from about 1/2 mile away…LOL!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Glad to hear it!

  21. Cut says:

    Looks like we are getting more then just a dusting. 1″ down in Fruitport and snowing at a pretty good clip.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Many places will be seeing a lot more than a dusting tonight!

    1. Scott says:

      Long, long, long way out. Though, I must say I trust the ensembles a lot more then a single model. They may have locked onto a possible storm – but this far out, it’s like looking at a grain of sand in orbit around Jupiter and predicting it will land on the Lunar Lander at the Sea of Tranquility.

      So at this point – it’s something to observe for the next week and a half. So I thought I’d make an early prediction. And here it is.

      We’ll talk about it. Some will get there hopes wayyyy up and have them dashed with a NW shift. And then a SE shift. Then the storm will temporarily open up and look like a Model T from 1913 – horrible. Then, Some will go crazy about 10 to 20 inches of snow. Some will say it’s going to be all rain. Some will predict highs in the 50s. One or two might predict a high in the 60s with heavy rain, maybe. Some will predict a crippling ice storm. Some will predict it will go through Tennessee. I predict every range of emotion will be displayed. So for the next week and a half, I’m sure we’ll see every kind of prediction available.

      Or, we can just watch, and wait until 48 hours before when we know what’s going to happen to avoid the model let-downs that happen every single time a model latches on to a storm and avoid the hype. That’s my plan.

      But what fun is that on this blog? I’d have nothing to read….

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        Amen!!!

      2. Jack says:

        FUN……” JEM MODEL UPDATE “”"”"”"”"”"” The JEM is Tracking, Racking,stacking, and Has Had it’s EYE ON, A BIG SNOW STORM, For about a Week NOW!!!******* ETA for This STORM is The SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY ****** This Could Be a SNOW STORM,,,,,,, 2 REMEMBER****** So Stay Cued 4 ****** For JEM model.. UPDATES, CUES & MORE ********* Available ONLY ON BILLS BLOG!!!!!! ;-) Stay CUED.. ;-)

      3. slimJim NW GR (1)) says:

        Nicly put Scott , if something shows up like you said 48 hrs out or so then it’s time to take a goog look at it and where it will go and what we may or may not get from any system.
        slimjim

      4. J-rod says:

        By all means keep predicting… my school starts on Thursday.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Move that bad boy about 100 miles to the East and we will be ROCKING!!!!

      1. Michigan Won says:

        Rocky…. Does your mommy know you’re playing on the computer? If you say it’s going to be cold with snow 365 days a year, year after year, your bound to be right eventually. Good for you, I guess your a meteorologist now. Please go out and play if you love this snow and cold so much. For someone that does, you’re sure indoors on your computer a lot.

    3. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I don’t even want to elaborate on this one yet. So I wont. I’ll wait until the 1st, and them check it out.

      1. Scott says:

        Amen. It is in the realms of likelihood this far out that it could even just *POOF* disappear off the charts completely. Seen it happen!

  22. steven says:

    Why is it that sometimes Montcalm county isn’t included in an advisory but we’ll get a considerable amount of snow? And it seems like the NWS would’ve put out ice storm warnings instead of winter weather advisories for west MI.

    1. slimJim NW GR (1)) says:

      Why don’t you ask them?
      Slimjim

  23. slimJim NW GR (1)) says:

    Well Christmas is now over and it can warm up! I know several of the writers on here seem to like the cold and snow and there is a chance that it will remain cold for a good part of the winter but I still would expect a warm up some time this winter. In fact I would not be too surprised if there was a pattern change before the end of January. Just think of last year when we went from warm and almost snow free to cold and snowy, this winter could go the other way to warm and less snowy. Any way it would be the rare winter where it stayed cold and snowy the whole wniter.
    Slimjim

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      It would be rare to see a cold and snowy winter last the season, without warm ups. In my 34 years, I haven’t seen one. I’ve heard about them from my parents, who witnessed them in the 60′s and 70′s. Some say weather patterns last about 30 years. Could we be turning the page back to cold and snowy winters. Who knows.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        I can’t find the neat graphics for the GR NWS, but Flint and Saginaw over here have had some of their top 20 coldest winters in the 2000′s and as early as 2010-2011.

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