Cold Start to 2014

December 27th, 2013 at 4:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new  814temp.new  naefs  On the left is the CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook for Jan. 1-5, in the middle we have the 8-14 day outlook for Jan. 3-9 and on the right the NAEFS outlook for Jan. 3-9.  Blue indicates higher probability for colder than average temperatures.  All three outlooks have Michigan with the higher odds of cooler than average weather.   It’s going to be a cold New Year’s Eve and Day with temperatures a good 10-15 degrees colder than average.  Speaking of cold, it was down to -58 at Chicken, Alaska Thurs. am.  The U.S. highest temp. on Thurs. was 86 at Ventura CA – giving the U.S. a 144-degree temperature difference!   Here’s a comparison of Northern Michigan snowfall vs. record snowfall to date.  Check out the multi-vehicle crash on the PA Turnpike.

48 Responses to “Cold Start to 2014”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    C’mon Bill! Give us some GOOD news, PLEASE! ;)

    On another note, not sure if someone has already posted this, but a Penn State experiment shows the lack of ‘accuracy’ that ‘Accuweather.com’ currently exhibits. This is more than entertaining:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/26/students-put-accuweather-long-range-forecasts-to-the-test/

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      LOL, so in other words a dart board or a roulette wheel could do better than the Acculess long range forecasts!

    2. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Nice find, Tom! Nothing surprising but cool to see some factual data on the topic.

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It will be a ROCKING COLD New Years Eve! Keep the COLD and SNOW coming. The more SNOW the better!

  3. SW Kent says:

    GFS hinting at a major thaw from Jan 8-12.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This will not happen and by tomorrow this model run will look totally different! I predict that during this time frame we will actually end up colder than normal! I am heading out to hit the trails again! We are having a great winter so far. Lets keep it ROCKING and ROLLING!

      1. SW Kent says:

        Rocky, I hope you are right.
        There have been 3 runs in a row that have been predicting it……

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Definition of “major thaw”? 40s? 50s?

      I caught WGN’s weather (Tom Skilling) last night. He was talking about the thaw on Saturday, and how the temps would flirt with 60 without any snow on the ground. With several inches of snow cover, we’re talking 40 instead of 60.

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      I’m seeing that too in some of the models. Some are showing upper 40′s around that time frame. We’ll see. Pretty far out still.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        WhateverTrends has had the perpetual thaw for 2 months now… Lol.

  4. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Bill, not trying to nitpick, but isn’t the temperature differential 144 degrees? Maybe it’s because you posted at 4:12 a.m. That’s a long day.

    1. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      I saw that too Ned, you’re correct with 144°

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        I wasn’t being critical. I have the utmost respect for Bill. :-)

  5. INDYY says:

    We will have snow on the ground to June get use to it!! INDYY

    1. SW Kent says:

      INDY!!!!!!!!!!!
      YES!!!!!!
      Snow on the ground JUNE!!!!!
      Cant wait!!!!!!!!!!!!
      I’m used to it!!!!!!!!!!!!

  6. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    06Z GFS showing quite a snowstorm for next Thursday…it then turns into a monster east coast storm. It could be gone on the next run, but here is the snow map.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013122706&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=168

  7. Mike (Berrien county) says:

    Not liking Saturday’s forecast… mid 40′s here & sunny…. ughhhhh…. hopefully we can replace our snow that melts with Sunday night’s lake effect.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      I’m with you… The one day I’m free to do some skiing, and it is going to be way too warm!

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    5 warm days, 4 cold days, and now 3 warm days before another cold stretch. The ups and down consecutive streaks continue.

    After only 1.6″ of snow in November, I’ve received 15.3″ so far for December. Not too shabby. Not sure how much will be left after the warm weekend upcoming.

    I was hoping to do some skiing, but the snow will probably be too slow and sticky.

    Another thaw coming after the bitter cold on NYE? WeatherTrends is showing close to 50 degrees on January 10th. The ECMWF model showing it too.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Head a couple hours north or west – plenty of snow/cold can be found.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      What’s more telling is that you’ve only had 9 warm days and 17 cold days this month.

  9. INDYY says:

    On the other side of earth we have had snow since the middle of Novi with below normal temps and above normal snowfall your guys winter SUCKS over there!! Enjoy the teens up coming!!! INNDY!!!

  10. GunLakeDeb says:

    Crazy fog layers here: quarter-mile visibility or less at (Gun) lake-level of 745′ ASL. As I drove uphill to work, anything above lake-level is clear as a bell, but at work, on top of the “hill” 762′ ASL – it’s dense fog again…LOL!!

    I sure am glad to see some sun – hopefully THIS time, with the warmer temps, it will melt the ice in the trees?

  11. John says:

    I find it hard to believe that we’ll reach the mid 40′s for tomorrow with a foot+ of snow on the ground

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      With a warm SW wind it very well could happen it has many times in the past, BTW I now have 34 here at my house right now and that is with almost a foot of snow on the ground (11″)
      SlimJim

  12. Dan says:

    Yes, John I agree with you. We will have some minor melting. I bet we make it to around 36 degrees tomorrow. Then, another arctic blast. What is your take on what Bill said about less snow because of the Lake freezing and thus, bringing down LES potential ?

    1. John says:

      I agree with Bill, as the lake freezes and gets colder it’s hard for it to produce sufficient moisture to get the lake effect going, I do think well get lake effect at least until the end of January but well see! At this point I’m happy with the snow we’ve had, we had a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas, but we could still use more! I guess big storms or clippers will be our only hope for snow!

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        yes if the lake freezes then the lake effect would be come less and less. I think we are a ways off from that happening yet. A lot depends on how cold we get and how much wind there is. My guess is the lake will not freeze over this year. (subject to change)
        SlimJim

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I think mid 30′ today and then low to mid 40;s are not out of the questions for tomorrow. In fact the winds should pick up and that could drive the temps well into the 40′s on Saturday. I seen many times where there was snow on the ground and temps well into the 40′s
      SlimJim

  13. yooper4021 says:

    Remarkable fall and early winter in Marquette. After a very warm first half of October, it’s been cold/wintry:

    – At least a trace of snow on 58 out of the last 69 days (since October 19) and 38 of the last 39 days (since November 18)

    – Below normal temps 20 of the last 22 days (-7.7 in December to date)

    Other December temperature data:

    – Sault Ste Marie -10.5; 20 of the last 21 days below normal
    – Alpena -8.2; 19/21
    – Gaylord -7.4; 20/21
    – Houghton Lake -6.4; 18/21
    – Traverse City -5.7; 20/21

    January thaw, anyone? Sure would be nice to get the outdoor Christmas lights taken down.

  14. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We are going up to Bay City for a few days. Will let ever one know how things are on the east side of the state later on. Here I have a temp of 32 already and would not be too surprised if GR can make the mid 30′s or better today. And would not be too shocked to see low to mid 40′s or better tomorrow. As of know the start of the week looks cold but with very little snow fall. In fact the fare SE part of the state will not have any snow cover after this weekend. Not sure how far the snow cover is to our SW I know on the other side of the lake there is a lot of snow but not so sure to the SW.
    SlimJim

  15. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    DGEX forecast impressed with lake effect potential: https://sites.google.com/site/forecastmodels/

  16. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    HAHA! Accuweather is setting up for a big FAIL if that warmup occurs around January 10th. They are forecasting an arctic blast with temps stuck in the mid teens and lows in the single digits during that time….

  17. GunLakeDeb says:

    HOLY COW!! We just hit the “magical temp” because it’s raining ice!!!! Kind of scary to drive right now – all the ice is falling onto the roadway and cars passing under trees…. sounds like popcorn popping outside…LOL!! Glad to see the trees finally get a break from all their burdens!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      It’s doing the same thing here. All I can hear is breaking ice.

    2. Randall says:

      Same thing here in SE Grand Rapids. Small chunks of ice and snow falling from power lines and trees. I was a bit scared walking my dog underneath it all!

    3. John says:

      Same is happening in Norton Shores! It’s falling everywhere!

  18. INDYY says:

    BREAKING NEWS WE HAVE MORE SNOW AND COLD COMING!! STAY TUNED!! INDYY!!

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      AAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!! We’re all gonna DIE!!!!! LOL

    2. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      You sound like a Broken record @ times. Just saying…

    3. Grand Rapds says:

      And his predictions are NEVER close to being accurate EVER …. Been reading his posting for a couple years nothing but a blow hole. He must be related to terri deboer.. AKA over dramatic and never close to being accurate

  19. kevin. w says:

    Ensemble models still showing a major storm the week of the 6th with someone receiving a heck of an ice storm and heavy snow to the north of the low. By looking at most of the ensemble models it would put this last icing event look whimpy and would be paralyzing for weeks as most of the trees and power grid is already weak. Its about a week out but the ensemble models have been showing this for a good 5 days now and the gfs the last day has been starting to show this as well. A good northeast wind fetch feeding the cold by looking at the models, which is key for major ice storms. Will see but this is going to be the year for a couple powerful storms that we haven’t seen in quite sometime in my opinion.

    1. Randall says:

      Where would I go to find these ensemble models?

  20. Ben (North Muskegon) says:

    The 12z gfs shows no major in the January 8-12 range.

    1. Ben (North Muskegon) says:

      *thaw

    2. kevin. w says:

      Google some weather stuff I’m sure your smart enough to figure how these work in the meteorology department. Your probably not looking hard enough or what to look for and I’m sure Rocky will chime in to help you.

  21. Jeff (Portland) says:

    35f here and ice melting .. Great news for the people who had an ice storm a week ago .. Thank you mother nature for finally giving us a melt ..

  22. Mr. Negative says:

    Nothing more than another long, cold, miserable Michigan winter…just like the good old days. Old timers recognize that we’re simply getting back to our “routine” winter program, while the kiddies struggle to understand why they won’t see their yard until April.

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