Friday Night

December 27th, 2013 at 12:39 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

hockey on reed's lake - harvey alley  WOW!  The temperature forecast for next Thurs. AM off the European model is -13.2F!  The model takes Montreal to -37F!   Looks overdone to me…it would have to be clear with light winds, fresh snow cover…not impossible though.  There was a hailstorm going on at my house early Fri. PM, with ice falling off the trees…you didn’t want to be under the trees!  The sun came out for a few minutes and that’s what did it.  Temp. made 37 in G.R., 40 in Benton Harbor, and we’ll be warmer tomorrow.

Check out the MODIS satellite picture of the Great Lakes.  Lots of clouds, you can see the open water in Green Lake and Geneva Lake in Wisconsin and Gull Lake NE of Kalamazoo.  You can see the Mississippi River is mostly ice north of Illinois.  You can also see the shadows of the clouds in N. Indiana.  There isn’t much snow on the ground south of I-94 and where that can melt off tomorrow, temps. could easily reach the mid-upper 40s.  The snow covered areas won’t get as warm.  Also, nice cap cloud on Mt. Rainier in Washington State this amNice wave clouds in eastern PA this amTropical Storm (Christine) to move into NW Australia.  BTW, found Santa in Australia, relaxing.   (they’ll appreciate the clouds and rain to cool things…not any wind damage/flooding).  90″ of new snow in the Alps.  45″ of snow have fallen since Thursday AM at Passo Rolle, Italy.  Winds were sustained at 95 knots (109 mph) at Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland at midnight local time!  104 deg. yesterday in Montevideo, Uruguay and 102 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.   -55 this am in Eagle AK, the HIGH was -34 in Fairbanks with ice fog – even Barrow on the north coast was down to -35.

NAM model snowfall forecast for W. Michigan thru 84 hoursGFS model snowfall forecast for W. Michigan thru 120 hours.

Consumers Energy Noon Update:  45,911 still without power (2.5% of customers – down from max of 19.1%), 6,736 in Barry Co. (24.7% of county), 3,460 in Eaton Co. (11.4% of county).  Down to just 344 customers in Kent Co. and 17 customers in Kalamazoo Co.  Also many still out in Livingston (16.7% of customers) and Shiawassee (19.1% of customers) Counties.

Season snowfall:  35.7 Muskegon, 31.5 G.R. (compared to 7.5″ at this point last year).  Delaware up to 140″ for the winter.  Ski/snowboarding conditions excellent.  (picture of hockey on Reed’s Lake by (if I remember right) 90-year-old facebook friend Harvey Alley, who took our wedding pictures back on 4/22/78).

45 Responses to “Friday Night”

  1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I wish the skiing conditions were excellent. Mushy and slow turning even mushier. I’ll have to get up north!

    Upper 40′s parts of Michigan?

    “Upper 40s seem especially reachable from Detroit south to the Ohio border where
    snow cover is at an inch or less today and will quickly melt off.”

    1. yooper4021 says:

      I believe it. Skilling mentioned last night on WGN that he thought it would get to 60 in Chicago tomorrow, if it weren’t for the snowpack. Makes a big difference.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Lol, took the bait. :)

    3. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Huh? I wish the snow was mushy, then I could get the snowpack off my driveway!
      BTW, welcome back to the blog for 36 hours, see you at the next warm-up!

    4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      GR was just above their average high today and by Sunday the temps will be dropping like a rock! The COLD and SNOW just keep rolling baby! I love it!

  2. yooper4021 says:

    Same thing here, Bill. It’s pretty creepy – lots of creaking and crackling coming from the larger trees. While I was out for lunch, I also noticed ice chunks falling from power lines and stop lights. Be careful out there folks.

    1. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Aren’t you always out to lunch? ;) just messin’ Yooper

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I’m wondering where December might land in the record books for Sault St. Marie. Over 10 degrees off the average for a whole month is nuts for a michigan location.

  4. INDYY says:

    BREAKING NEWS WE HAVE MORE COLD AND SNOW ON THE WAY!!! STAY TUNED!! INDYY!!

    1. SW Kent says:

      Thanks for the update INDY!!!!!!!

    2. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      You sound like a Broken record @ times. Just saying…

  5. 35* here in Byron Center, lots of melting of the icicles and being bombarded with ice chunks coming down from the trees. One more day of the warmer air tomorrow before we usher in some more cold and snow next week!

  6. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The wind turbines south of Ludington were standing still this morning. I haven’t been through there in a couple years, but WOW, what an eye sore. Dozens of these structures obscuring the beautiful landscape in southern Mason county.

    1. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Theres also a bunch of wind turbines up by McBain.
      I worked on a few wind farms while installing a few years ago all over the country, they are very ugly and it seems a lot of them get put up in beautiful locations and it just upsets the locals to no end.
      The sad part is that most don’t even pay for themselves by the end of their useful lifetime of about 30 years.
      About 6-8 million a piece to build and install, a LOT of maintenance, and many wind free days of freewheeling which is what it’s called when they let them spin with the little bit of wind but not strong enough to make power.
      To add insult to injury, most contracts don’t include removal after they are shut down for good, and roughly 500 yards of concrete below ground with thousands of pounds of rebar stays right there.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        All good points. But remember, the burning of fossil fuels wasn’t very efficient in it’s inception either.

  7. Dan says:

    Do we have as favorable LES chances when the Arctic blasts comes in here on Sunday? NWS is only calling for little to no accumulation.
    I can’t believe we hit 35 today. With the snow pack and recent cooler air, I didn’t we think we would get to 35 today. I do think we will get there tomorrow!

    1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

      SW winds will do that, what a beautiful day today. Tomorrow will be great, then we go back to reality. Enjoy the weather and sunshine, it’s been very scarce this month.

  8. Ben (North Muskegon) says:

    The Winter Classic at the Big House on New Years Day is looking really cold. The low the night before is forecast to be around 0 with highs around 15.

  9. Jack says:

    What The HAY….IT’S FRIDAY…..CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH5qJNl8qDM. Stay CUED !!

  10. Jack says:

    Followed By …James Taylor ::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30smAQOfusY. Stay Cued…. & Take it EASY, on The Roads !! ;-)

  11. Jack says:

    Allow Me one MORE Bill…Local Boy, Larry Ballard…. CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8USeowETBg. Thanks, Stay Cued !

  12. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    For those of you that are talking about a warm up the week of the January 6th – the CPC and I disagree with you! These maps show a good chance of COLD and SNOW! I am still predicting Kent County’s first Winter Storm Warning will be issued the week of 1-6-14! Bring it on and get ready to ROCK! The COLD and SNOW just keeps coming and coming. Get used to it!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

  13. Feels nice to finally have the car up into the 70mph range on the highway!! havn’t been able to drive that fast in some time due to all the snow and ice we have gotten

    1. Jack says:

      Wow…70 mph, Talk about ” Life in The Fast Lane”" SPIN::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tcXblWojdM. ;-)

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Enjoy! This is the expected SNOWFALL for next week. GR is headed for over a foot of SNOW! Bring it on. That sounds great along with temps in the teens. It does not get much better than that!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013122718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=216

    1. SW Kent says:

      Looks great!

    2. kevin. w says:

      Better check the ensemble models its still looking like heavy freezing rain then a big snowstorm around 12th. I heard on a weather station today out of Detroit that a pattern shift to more storms as we get connected from Asia to the U.S. wave train during January.

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        All things considered, I’d rather have the snowstorm.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Let’s for no freezing rain and all SNOW!!

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          “hope”

  15. Katie in Kentwood says:

    I love that 35 degrees is a huge warmup for us :) I actually saw the sun today AND melting snow. It was really nice!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

  16. Scott says:

    Trends to watch:

    1) Increased snowcover in Canada/Northwest:

    Looking at the previous models Bill posted about below average temperatures from Jan – Feb and juxtaposing that with long range model forecasts for snowcover in Canada, wow. Long range models really nearly doubling up on snowfall depth in Canada likely to reinforce and prolong cold arctic air and allow it to drive further south. This will drive the storm track near to south of the snowline due to baroclinic zones setting up between the gradiant of arctic and more temperate air. If these models are to be believed, two things are going to happen:

    A. Arctic air plunges will INCREASE in January.
    B. Snowstorms will also increase – in my view, especially in mid January to February.

    2. No Large scale January Thaw

    It’s going to be very difficult to have a prolonged January Thaw. Why? Because chinook winds off the rockies normally eat canadian and northland snows allowing temperatures to moderate. If the snowpack is increasing instead of decreasing, there will be little to no chinook moderation of air. Therefore, the usual cause of the January Thaw appears to be absent. In fact, the cold air and snowpack is not forecast to diminish, but to strengthen.

    3. Increase of winter storms

    With the increase in dense snowpack, the strong flow of cold air, and the tendency for warm return flow to begin setting up with a higher sun angle, I expect a very stormy late January – February to set up.

    What we are going to need to thaw is a complete pattern shift with cold air to the west and warm southerly air east of the Rockies to last a long time to melt snowpack and moderate air which will allow the jet stream to shift north and get us into a more moderate pattern. As long as we have the increasing cold and snowpack to the north, I don’t see it happening.

    My two cents.

    1. Scott says:

      Also – I noticed GFS at the end of it’s run appears to have Lake Michigan nearly frozen over and accumulations literally on the Lake. It doesn’t have those “lake bubbles” of no accumulations any more at the end of the run. So far it hasn’t shown accums on the Lake – that changes within the next few weeks if this run is to believed. Very rarely do models pick up snow ON the Great Lakes like this – so if it is correct with the Lakes mostly ice covered to ice covered within a few weeks – rare to rare indeed. So if this is correct, it would be less lake effect and more synoptic with lake influence dwindling if this is to be believed.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        That’s a little strange, because the GFS doesn’t really show enough cold air beyond Thursday or Friday to make that happen.

        1. Scott says:

          Sent a comment with links showing the trends I am looking at to support what I’m thinking. It’s awaiting moderation due to link amounts.

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Looks wintry for sure. Predominantly colder than normal, with occasional brief warm ups as storms come along. If we can get those storms to take the right track, this will be a January to remember!

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I like the sound of that. GFS sure seems to be indicating a turn to a much stormier pattern by mid-January. Joe Bastardi says a battle is setting up with the analog years, the Japanese model, and the CFS V2 on the colder side, with the GFS and the Euro on the milder side.

      1. Scott says:

        I have to side with the colder side, Michael – because it is a whole lot easier for colder and denser air to win over lighter and warmer air. If anything, lighter and warmer air has a much higher chance of riding over cold dense air and creating ice and snow events through isentropic lifting. My bet is on the cold side.

        If we had little snowpack up north and little arctic air up north, I think it would be a great chance of a January thaw and chinook warming setting up as normally happens.

        But nothing about this year is normal.

  17. Slimjim NW GR (1) says:

    We are in Linwood, MI witch is about 10 miles north of Bay City. There is about 4″ of snow on the ground here which is not bad as they do not get LE here. Unless there is a NE wind. It was cloudy all the way over here and the temp was 29 to 30 all the way over bad now on my car it reads 32. I see it’s 36 still in GR so I would not be too surprised to see it get in into the mid to maybe upper 40′s there tomorrow. We shall see.
    Slimjim

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      KGRR is now now to 38, getting windy too. Going to melt a good bit of snow tomorrow I think.

  18. Wow is it windy out there! Reminds me a little bit of the night of Nov. 17 of this year!

    1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

      Yes it is windy out. Ice was falling earlier but not as much as it was south of me. I was checking it out at sunset and we still have lots of ice left on the trees. Could be more power outages. Temp here is 36 now so maybe it will be ok. We may hit 47 Sat for a high temp. It will be a great day for a winter bonfire.

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