Winter Weather Advisory

December 29th, 2013 at 6:49 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   modis lake superior There’s a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory for Allegan and Van Buren Counties until noon Monday for 3-6″ of snow for areas along and west of M-40 in Allegan Co.   See the radar thread below for links.   The NAM (caribou) would have 1-3″ overnight for S. Haven.

MODEL UPDATE:  LOTS OF COLD AND SNOW ON THE WAY!!!    Here’s forecast snowfall for Monday night (first number in inches) and then from Tues. night thru Thurs (second number):  NAM (caribou):  Grand Rapids 1.9″, 11.4″…Holland 3.9″, 11.9″, S. Haven 2.8″, 10.5″, Kalamazoo 1.3″, 6.3″, Lansing 0.7″, 9.4″, Ludington 3.1″, 10.0″, Cadillac 1.2″, 6.5″, Pontiac 1.4″, 8.9″, Jackson 0.5″, 5.6″, Big Rapids 1.4″, 8.9″, Muskegon 3.5″, 11.0″.   The GFS (caribou):  Grand Rapids 1.6″, 5.7″, Kalamazoo 1.6″, 8.6″, Muskegon 2.4″, 3.7″.   The European has 0.08″ precip. for Mon. night (1 1/2″ of snow) for G.R and a total of 0.49″ from Tues. night thru Thurs….at a 20-1 radio that would be 10″ of snow.  The GFS (caribou) has the temperature in G.R. down to -7 deg. Friday am.  The European has -6 for G.R. on Friday and -11 on 1/7.

The picture on the right from this (Sun.) afternoon is the MODIS picture of Lake Superior showing classic lake-effect clouds with very cold air crossing the lake.  At 6 pm (EST) Sunday – Duluth is -10 deg, the Grand Marais Airport  is -17.  In Ontario, Wawa is -11F, Marathon is -16F and -13F Thunder Bay

Also, Canadian study on the efficiency of electric cars at different temperatures.


35 Responses to “Winter Weather Advisory”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Ugh! :(

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Why are all of the counties in purple!

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bill keep the great news rolling!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I like that he quotes you in the post :)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Rock On DF!

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    The NWS isn’t really anticipating a lot of snow this week. But we shall see…

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Looking at the GR NWS write up it would look like their thinking is maybe 2-7 in GR.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Good because many times when they downplay events we just get hammered!

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We are back home from out trip up to Linwood (Bay City) There were a lot of ice fishing shanties out on both the Saginaw bay and the Saginaw river. While the Bay City area had less snow then GR had when we first got up there (around 4″) the total here and up there now look about the same as it was only in the low 30′s there on Friday and in Bay City only made it up to 41 on Saturday. Anyway on the trip home there was some light freezing mist as we left Bay City but that ended before we got to Midland. the temp started out at 29 and the coldest it got (on the trip over) was 22. its now that same 22 here at my house right now.

  6. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We seen the movie The Wolf of Wall Street while in Bay City. Not only is the movie good (have to warm you lots of drug use and swearing and sex) but for some reason it kind of reminded me of several of the personas that writhe on this blog.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:


  7. INDYY says:

    West Michigan will have 20+ new inches of snow coming!!!! Winter watches Winter storm warnings and lots of sprites!!!! Ohh Don’t forget the record cold coming!! HAPPY WINTER HERE!! INDYY

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Just like last year according to Travis!

  8. INDYY says:


  9. Stacey M says:

    What are the two numbers indicating inches of snow for the cities listed? For example, Holland has 3.9″ and 11.9″. Does the lower number the amount of precip and the larger the one the amount of snow it’s equalled to?

    1. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      The first number is for Monday and the second number is for Tuesday through Thursday.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The first number is the snowfall for Monday night and the second number is the snowfall for Tuesday through Thursday!

      1. Stacey M says:

        Thank you!

  10. Stacey M says:

    They didn’t have that on the original post.

  11. John says:

    For Muskegon the average amount of snow for Wednesday into Thursday between the GFS and NAM is 7.3″ I’ll take that!

  12. Cort S. says:

    Some maps for people who like brutal cold temperatures in model fantasy land–

    Ensemble-based probability of January 7 low temperatures being less than -10°F:

    ECMWF HRES temperature anomaly for January 7:

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I know its cool and all (no pun intended), but who would subzero temperatures lows? That is just painfully cold and totally unnecessary. 20 degrees is cold enough for snow, so why go any lower? :p

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The latest GFS 120 hour snowfall projections!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I’m thinking this will be the location that the models latch onto. General 4-8″ with pockets of 6-10″ in the middle of the viewing area. For Tuesday night through Thursday that is.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Assuming that the forecasts are correct and the storm only clips areas south of GRR, it looks like a nice swath of snow will blanket the 1-94 corridor by tomorrow. Then westerly flow and maybe southwesterly flow should put a nice batch of lake effect over much of the area near and west of 131. Im looking at the predicted wind speeds from NOAA’s wind field maps and it seems that the lake effect and enhanced snow event will begin with a southwest wind Monday night (Holland, Muskegon, northern parts of Grand Rapids) and then, after a little weakening Tuesday, transition to a west wind event for Tuesday night when things get more organized (Holland again, Grand Rapids, south of Muskegon, north of Kalamazoo unless warm air advection ahead of the wave enhances the snow there). However, the NWS does state that the wind direction could be easterly Tuesday night, preventing any lake enhancement in our area… strangely, their point and click forecast shows west winds while their forecast dissuasion just mentions easterly flow.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Very nice!

  14. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    You know it’s cold when: the U.P. has a Wind Chill Advisory for -20° to -35° wind chills.

  15. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The Wednesday system looks decent on the latest 00Z NAM.

  16. John says:

    The 00Z NAM is finally not so dramatic on snow totals for the Wednesday into Thursday system but is still decent on snow accumulations!

  17. Take a look at this! I wish this was what was going to happen!!

    1. John says:

      That was the 18Z the 00Z NAM has cut down 8″ on the snowfall accumulations and now has 10-12″ for the whole area getting closer to what the GFS has!

      1. Shhh don’t say that! this is accurate! lol

      2. John (Holland) says:

        That’s unfortunate. Such a storm would have been glorious. 16-18 inches…

  18. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    That band is slowly strengthening over my area, but it is still just light snow currently. It’s quite breezy as well. Might be some minor drifting if any place can get enough snow to drift.

  19. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z Canadian and 00Z GFS both still have the heavier snow south of I-96 for Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Also, the GFS is back to a snowstorm for late next weekend.

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