Tues. PM – Weds.

December 30th, 2013 at 6:19 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  (Mostly light snow continues thru tonight.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery in places…esp. side roads and rural roads that see less traffic.  Cold temps. in the low-mid teens.  Calumet in the U.P. reports “6″ SNOWFALL SINCE AROUND NOON – MULTIPLE CARS OFF THE ROAD WITH VISIBILITY UNDER 1/8 MI AT TIMES. SNOW DURATION 5 HOURS”.  MASSIVE POLAR VORTEX EARLY NEXT WEEK CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN.  Also, building a HUGE snow sculpture in Jilin, China.         Overnight  model update:   GFS has 3 days next week with highs of 5 to 10 in G.R. (7th to 9th).  The GFS plot does not have a temperature above freezing thru 1/5 (probably overdone, but still…cold pattern continues).  GFS plot still has 3-5″ snow Tues. night/Weds. south of a line from Holland to central Ingham Co…NAM backing off on the snow.  High temps. Mon:  -11 Hallock and Flag Is. MN, 0 Green Bay, 2 Dubuque, -6 on Isle Royale!, -7 Grand Forks ND, only 44 at Laredo TX.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.  We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

127 Responses to “Tues. PM – Weds.”

  1. Scott says:

    Rules of thumb for accumulating snowfall (GRR VERSION) :

    1) If they say we won’t get a lot, prepare for a lot.
    2) If they say we’ll get a lot, prepare for a bust.
    3) If there’s already 3″ when 1″ is falling, ignore accumulation forecasts.
    4) If the chance of snow is 50%, and it is snowing outside, the chance of snow is actually 100%.
    5) If radar trends are the same and haven’t changed, prepare for more of the same.

    1. Scott says:

      *forecast not falling

      1. Scott says:

        This is tongue in cheek humor, by the way

        1. slimJim550 NW GR (1) says:

          Just a I pad test
          Slimjim

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      LOL!

  2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Chicago is under a lake effect snow watch for tomorrow…in addition to the snow they get from the system. It won’t match the New Years storm of 1999. I was in Chicago for that one…23″…we were stuck there an extra day.

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      WGN shows 13″ for Benton Harbor by Thu….10-11″ for South Haven.

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Tom Skilling was posting the NAM snow forecast maps yesterday, so I believe they are on board with that model. It does look like they could get a decent band of lake effect as well as the system snow.

  3. INDY says:

    LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW!!! INDYY!!!

  4. Jesse says:

    Snowing pretty good here in Wyoming. Roads have a nice greasy snow/slush combo on them. Slow going

  5. Brian(Grandville) says:

    New 12Z Euoro gives G.R. a whopping 1.2″ through saturday.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is what I was afraid of. Unfortunately the Southward trend has continued.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Do you have a link to the map? I hear it has backed off a bit on the cold as well.

    3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      That’s at a 10:1 ratio. So more like 2.4″, but that still seems about 2″ low.

  6. tinainvbcounty says:

    5+ inches of snow here by Gobles….any advisory or watch out yet? There may be traveling going in tonight! Another MISS by NWS. We had3″ this morning alone and still no reflection of this. Need to stop running models and get some real life info at this point!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Good to hear for me as a snowmobiler. You should have enough for us to ride down there by the end of the week/weekend!

      1. tinainvbcounty says:

        Sounds fun! Already seeing some sleds out today!

  7. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    12Z GFS is a little stronger with tomorrow’s snow, and a little stronger with this weekends snow, as well as stronger with lake effect next week.
    12Z NAM is still being consistent with heavier amounts for tomorrow’s snow.
    12Z Canadian is stronger with tomorrow’s snow, and a lot strong with Saturday’s snow. It’s actually giving us a quick heavy band of snow later on Saturday(darkest blue I’ve seen it forecast for our area so far this winter).

    So basically the models went from exploding with snow, to backing WAY off the snow, to going somewhere in the middle.

  8. Scott says:

    AGREED.

    I’m in E. VB County and now running close to your totals. At least 4-5″ on the ground now. Forecast has a 50% chance of snow with no accumulations listed. Many reporting in these areas are running 4″+ in E. VB county from what I’ve read here. Snow continues, and not so much as an advisory.

    Meanwhile, an advisory was issued for Allegan and Van Buren a couple days ago which produced absolutely nothing and was cancelled early.

    I understand Lake Effect is a great deal of guesswork due to it’s unpredictability, but when a real world event is ongoing which meets advisory criteria (which this absolutely does), forget the models and start using real world trends. Put an advisory out until the next forecast package and extend as needed.

    This wave appears to be moving out only to have the next system come in tonight and tomorrow. I’ve actually come to the point to completely ignoring GRR NWS advisories and warnings, sadly, because of what appears to be a consistency issue. I have no doubt they’re doing their best. Perhaps it’s just a training issue.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I got about 2 1/2″ since midnight. Will probably have 3″ of new snow before it ends an a little while.

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    My point forecast is now down to 0.9 inches of SNOW from today through Friday! Too funny!

  10. Scott says:

    NWS reasoning:

    SHARP CUT OFF IN THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR I-96
    WITH POINTS NORTH OF THAT SEEING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION THROUGH
    THE DAY. 3 INCHES OR MORE A POSSIBILITY WITH UP TO 6 INCHES
    POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EACH VAN BUREN
    KALAMAZOO…CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES. LIGHT STEADY SNOW OVER A
    36 HOUR PERIOD WITH LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED. OVERALL
    PRETTY COMMON WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO
    WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT NO ADVISORY APPROACH TO THIS SNOW.

    My opinion? That’s a mistake. And I will say nothing more then that about that.

    Already 3-5″ of snow has falled in the I94 corridor of Van Buren and likely parts of Kalamazoo counties. It was about to taper but is picking back up again this afternoon. Probably 1-2″ more this afternoon and 3-6″ additional adding to what has already fallen from a line from South Haven to probably Gobles to appr. just west of Kalamazoo. That would total to probably 10″+ in those areas when all is said in done. There have already been travel impacts as was reported on the other thread, and they’ll continue. Not to mention it is a holiday. I don’t know, maybe it’s just me, but when criteria is there for an advisory, don’t worry about statistics or fails or whatever it is that’s keeping them from pulling it. Van Buren, Kalamazoo and pointes east counties should be under an advisory, and I’m sticking to that opinion – at the least because tomorrow night is new years eve – and the roads will be dangerous enough as it is. People will be partying, not thinking, driving on the roads when they shouldn’t be, and the snow will just make a bad situation worse. An advisory might deter some people from doing something stupid – like driving on New Years Eve. To me it’s a no brainer. I’ll stop now.

    1. Scott says:

      tonight is New Years eve I mean.

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