LOTS of Snow and Cold

December 30th, 2013 at 1:09 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

hpc snow   This is the snow probability map for the next snowstorm from HPC.  You can see the heaviest probability axis of snow across far N. Illinois, far S. Wisconsin, far N. Indiana and S. Lower Michigan.  With the cold air, there will be a high snow to water ratio and we could easily see at least 4-8+” of snow centered around I-94 from late Tues. night into Weds. night.  Here’s GFS 120-hour snowfall totals.  The NAM model has the heaviest snow centered more to the north over Gr. Rapids.   We could easily be below zero Friday morning.  Then the Sun. night/Monday storm (mean trough centered right over Michigan) could give us another 4-8+ inches.  That’ll be followed by a gigantic, bone-chilling Siberian high pressure center, so big that it may control the circulation over most all of North America!   There’s more ice on the Great Lakes today than on any Dec. 30 since 1989Arctic Oscillation goes negative (usually that means cold for the Great Lakes and East), PNA goes positive (usually that means ridge in the West and trough in the East).

Lake Michigan warming the air…at 4 PM, it’s -1 in Green Bay, +13 in Frankfort…+6 in Milwaukee (Mitchell Field) and +19 in Grand Rapids.

The overnight European model has it snowing more than not from Monday night thru Thurs. with 0.53″ for G.R. – which would be a good 10″ of snow.  10-day European snow forecast of a foot of snow south of I-96.    European model forecasting near all-time record cold for Chicago.  The GFS plot has low temperatures of -3 for G.R. next Fri. and -8 on 1/11.   Monday am low temps in the U.P.:  -14 Marquette NWS, -15 S. Ste. Marie, -25 Wakefield…-40 this am in Embarass MN.  Lake Michigan really warming the air this morning (northwest wind).   Milwaukee (Timmerman Arpt.) was -8 and Green Bay bottomed out at -16.  Grand Rapids, on the other hand, had a low of 15 and Ludington +12.  Check out the view from the Muskegon Channel and the beach at Holland.   Also, Tropical Cyclone Christine comes ashore in NW Australia…and Tropical Cyclone Bejisa passes Madagascar to the east in the western Indian Ocean.

YIKES!  The morning GFS has the 850 mb temps. down to -27C in G.R. – that’s industrial strength cold.

As of 11 AM – Consumers Energy reports only 122 customers statewide don’t have power.  Most (83) are in Genesee Co. (Flint area) with 2 each in Kent, Kalamazoo and Barry Co. and 1 in Eaton Co.  Let’s hope we don’t go thru this again in 2014.

DID YOU HEAR THE DETROIT LIONS ARE MOVING TO THE PHILIPPINES?   They’re going to be called the Manila Folders!

132 Responses to “LOTS of Snow and Cold”

  1. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Bill that NAM link shows 10-12″ of snow at the Indiana border, not bullseyed over GR. Did it change that much???

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Yes, it changed a couple of model runs ago. Has the heaviest snow south of I-96 like the other models.

      1. Cliff(Scotts) says:

        I will take it!!!

  2. mr. negative says:

    Nonsense…everone knows there is no “cold” air circulating this planet.

  3. Cort S. says:

    I like this one.

    http://t.co/eTmAj0EabV

    It’s not often you see 500 mb heights of less than 500 dekameters in the CONUS. Look at those anomalies!

    1. Cort S. says:

      Follow up: There is a known bug in the EC model that is causing significant errors in the medium range. So this is likely not realistic. Still a good bet all around for below-normal temperatures in early January.

  4. John (Holland) says:

    Another big fail and miss to the south…

  5. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We’ve received only 0.75″ of snow here today. Did anyone in Allegan/Van Buren County get anywhere near the 3-6″ forecasted by the GRR NWS? Looks like everyone north of I-96 will get very minimal snow this week. I’m still thinking 2-4″ for Ottawa/Kent/Ionia counties, and 4-8″ for Allegan/Barry/Eaton counties and off to the S and E. Hoping we get enough snow to soften up the ice base we have so we can snowmobile on the trails. The best snowmobiling is during the cold spells.

    18Z NAM is still on board with heavier snow totals south of I-96.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      PERFECT!

    2. SW Kent says:

      SEND A COPY TO AL GORE PLEASE!

    3. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Maybe you missed Corts post yesterday:

      Cort S. says:
      December 29, 2013 at 7:19 pm
      It’s ironic on its face, but earth science is always more complex when you dig deeper into it. Antarctica is losing land ice, but gaining sea ice.

      (Note to those smarter than me: Here is my source; you may discredit it however you wish. However, my point about us all needing a deeper understanding of the complexities of earth science still stands.)

      The link he provided is here:

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice-intermediate.htm

      Good read on the increasing sea ice, but rapidly decreasing land ice.

      1. Paul says:

        Hey Barry, do you also believe in fairies? LOL

        Facts are stubborn things, your theory about “Global Warming” has been proven wrong and the temperatures are confirming it.

        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          I have no theory on global warming nor have I ever said such a thing. I was simply posting a good read that Cort had posted. I am simply bridging the gap between the two extreme sides here on this blog by posting a article with the facts. Take it as you will, but it kind of proves BOTH sides wrong.

  6. John says:

    18Z GFS is even more weaker, wonder if it will trend the whole system downward? Glad it’s a bust now than later!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      There was no guaranty we were getting a snowstorm. The one thing I never put any trust into are the snowfall overlay maps. They are way overdone most of the time.

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