Shiverin’ Snowman!!

January 1st, 2014 at 4:23 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Thermometer near zero

Overnight model update: 7:25 pm – it’s still snowing pretty much south of a line from Grand Haven to Alam, though snow intensities have diminished a little.  Roads are snow covered and slippery from Ottawa, Kent and S. Montcalm Counties to the south.    The Winter Storm Warning continues for Berrien, Cass and St. Joseph Counties until 4 PM Thurs. and the Winter Weather Advisory for Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson, Branch and Hillsdale Counties continues until 1 PM Thurs.  The Advisory is until noon Thurs. for SE Michigan.  Snow reports include 6-8″ across Berrien Co., 4-7″ in Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Cass and St. Joseph Counties and 3″ in Jackson and Calhoun Counties.  Here’s snowfall reports from SW Michigan, N. Indiana and NE Illinois (up to 11.3″ at Libertyville IL, 9″ at Arlington Heights and up at Racine WI).   Some cold afternoon high temps:  -3 S. Ste. Marie, -9 Grand Forks ND, -11 Intl. Falls MN, -18 Flag Is. MN, +2 Waterloo IA, +1 Houghton MI, Minneapolis MN and Sioux Falls SD.  It was only in the mid 50s today at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL.  It did reach 82 at Miami, Key West, Palm Beach and Ft. Myers Fl, but it was only 65 at Orlando.

The models have a tremendous shot of cold coming early next week.  The Euro. gives G.R. a surface temp. of -8 Tues. AM with an 18 mph wind and a biting wind chill of -22 (well into “no-recess for kids” territory).   For you weather geeks, the Euro. has the 850 mb temp. down to -30.1C n(-22F), the 500 height down to 503 and the 1000-850 mb thickness to 490.   AND…the Euro. gives us a lot of snow!  It prints out 0.57″ of precip. from Sat. night into Sun. night (that could be 10″ of snow) and another .13″ Mon. into Tues.    The GFS only has a couple inches of snow Sat. night.  The GFS-plot has -5 Fri. AM, -1F at 1 PM next Monday (with a stiff NW wind), then highs of 12, 12, 16 from Tues. to Thurs. of next week.  Temperatures could be 10-12 deg. colder on the other side of the lake in Chicago and Milwaukee and even across N. Indiana where the wind isn’t warmed by Lake Michigan.  The GFS gives Green Bay a temp. of +1 with a 16 mph NW wind at kickoff of the Packer/49er game and the temp. falls to -6 by the end of the game.   The Euro. is a little slower with the cold and would have the game starting around +12 and then falling to around 6 by the end of the game.   From Joe Bastardi:  “A severe, perhaps epic, period of cold and storminess is in front of us the next 10 days.”   MONSTER 1049 mb Siberian high pressure center moves to S. OhioColdest temperatures slide south of W. Michigan through Indiana and OhioWinnipeg, Canada as cold as planet Mars!!   GFS forecast average low temperature Jan. 7 for the Continental U.S. is 9.8 degrees!!   13 degrees and snowing for the big outdoor hockey game at the Big House.   Intense cold from Siberia to Iowa.

Check out the high temp. map from Tuesday.  High temps:  -16 International Falls MN, -18 Grand Forks ND, -28 at a couple locations east of Lake Winnipeg!   That’s industrial strength cold air!   I’ll be working – on the air the next 3 evenings (Thurs. to Sat.) and keep coming back to the blog for updates.

Flood Advisories for ice jams on the Muskegon and Pere Marquette Rivers.

 

291 Responses to “Shiverin’ Snowman!!”

  1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Well its hard to get an accurate measurement with the drifting snow but I would say we got a solid 4-5 inches or so here so far! Its still coming down! Also yes the WWA was a day or so late but this just goes to show not to judge the intensity of any storm or snow maker soley on the alert issued.

    A note on roads: main roads are messy but drivable. Just have to take it slow. Several slide offs near exit 66 on 94 and once you get to secondary roads, there’s several inches of snow sitting on them. Subdivisions for the most part have not been touched by plows and smaller vehicles will have a hard time getting though. Hope the snow keeps coming!

  2. Mike (Lenawee) says:

    I live in Lenawee County – just SW of Ann Arbor. The weekend of the 14th/15th we had nine inches of snow. We had a winter weather advisory. We’ve probably had five inches today already and it probably won’t stop until tomorrow night. Again, winter weather advisory. Maybe I need to read the NWS criteria for winter storm warnings, but these both seem like pretty major storms for our area. We are not lake effect areas and we rarely get ten+ inch snowfalls. The White Lake/Detroit office just seems very, very conservative on these things.

    We are also in kind of a twilight zone for the NWS. We have the Cleveland office just below us in Lucas County. The NW Indiana office forecasts for Hillsdale County to the West. Grand Rapids has Jackson to the immediate NW. And we are Detroit, even though Oakland County is pretty much a two hour drive from here. It is completely baffling sometimes to see the forecasts come out and how they don’t really reflect reality where the offices meet. And it is interesting to see the interaction between the offices. Cleveland had a Winter Storm Watch for Lucas on this storm until the surrounding offices went with a Winter Weather Advisory. It is like the politics mean more than the actual weather sometimes.

  3. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    Go Green!!!! If the win against Ohio State wasn’t spectacular enough, this puts the icing on the cake. As for rioting….students are off for winter break, so that shouldn’t be an issue!

    1. Jack says:

      MSU…….MSU……MSU…… Pic HERE:::: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=673243126055780&set=a.114588455254586.5908.104266592953439&type=1. S”PARTY”"”"” ON. GREEN & White !!!

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Awesome!!!!!!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      What a game! Their defense is incredible. 13-1 and Dantonio gets a long overdue fat raise.

  4. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Up to 4.8″ for the day over here.

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Guess what – we are in a COLD and SNOWY pattern with no change in sight! Too bad we can’t actually get a real SNOWSTORM! I am rooting for the JEM model! All other models are total garbage!

  6. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Here are my December snowfall stats:
    20 days with measurable snow.
    I never had a daily snowfall that exceeded 4.75″.
    I ended the month with 40.3″ of total snowfall.

  7. tyler says:

    -15 this morning in iron Mountain and marquette. -8 in escanaba and -26 in wakefield.

  8. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    I was typing on my tablet before and sorry about the poor Grammer lol. Anyways this morning some more impressive lows in Central to Northern interior sections of Wisconsin. -12 in Green Bay, -8 in La Crosse, -19 in Stevens Point, -25 in Tomahawk, -17 in Eau Claire. Some intense cold in Minnesota as well.

  9. Tyler (Escanaba) says:

    -35 in Ely Minnesota and also Cook Minnesota. -32 in Hibbing and International Falls as well. -8 at the bottom of Minnesota in Albert Lea last night as well. -18 also up in Fargo ND. Niles a suburb of Chicago reported over 10 inches of snowfall and Arlington Heights had 13 inches of snow.

  10. Mike (Berrien county) says:

    Close to 7 inches of snow on the ground here. Saw a report on the NWS website of 11.5″ snow depth now at St. Joseph, a lil’ north of here..

  11. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    I know there was some talk of the high next week possibly being the coldest daytime high since Feb. of 2007. Does anyone know if that was the lake effect blizzard that hit on Feb. 4 of 2007? I didn’t think the high got above 10 that day…yet everyone west of 131 were hammered with wind and snow.

    1. WickedTwister says:

      I remember that nice storm! It was bitter cold after it, I remember blizzard was all day Saturday had almost a foot here in Caledonia. It was so cold that plows and salt weren’t doing muvh and church was cancelled and mon and tue school was cancelled! Remember that part cause it’s like the only time I had back to back snow days!

      1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        One of those rare times that there were strong winds, frigid temps, and did not hinder the snow at all. It was Superbowl weekend as well…most schools had already canceled before kickoff on Sunday.

    2. John says:

      Looks like a similar set up next week but with less snow, still decent winds and bitter cold will set the stage for biting cold and whiteout conditions

      1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        That is kind of where I was getting at. I know the models are only showing a couple inches of snow…but I wonder if any other “dynamics” would come together to produce more snow. If I recall, that 2007 storm was not talked about much until the day before it hit.

        1. John says:

          Most of the times we seem to get more than forecasted especially with lake effect, the GFS has 4-6″ for me next week, it still doesn’t take much to create whiteout conditions even with 2″ something to watch for next week, especially with the kids going back they’ll need to bundle up!

        2. WickedTwister says:

          Not to forget the nice snowpack in place right now for blowing around

        3. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

          Typically…strong winds, frigid temps mean less snow for me, as it goes inland more…and small flake size. But..as I said, there are those few times we get extremely cold with a nice setup for snow. You never know.

      2. WickedTwister says:

        Another thing I remember was Craig James mentioning the potential for blizzard conditions a few days in advance! Be cool to see him do a forecast like 1x a year for fun!

  12. WickedTwister says:

    From NWS History
    2/3/2007 Blizzard conditions prevail across southwest Lower Michigan as an arctic blast of frigid air moving over Lake Michigan produces thundersnow and whiteout conditions. Grand Rapids sets a record for snowfall for any February day with 11.3 inches of snow.

  13. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I just took a midnight measurement, and we ended up with 5.5″ for today, 7″ for storm total so far, 10″ in the past 48 hours, and 11.9″ so far this week. Still snowing lightly. I have snow depth of 12″ on the ground, and 14″ on our deck. New Year’s Day was our biggest daily snowfall of the season, coldest day so far, everything is drifted over, but no advisory…hmmm. Here is a pic of the snow on my deck. I hope it works as I’m posting this from my phone since my laptop took a crap on me today and won’t turn on.

    https://m.facebook.com/home.php?refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F&refid=8&_rdr#!/photo.php?fbid=10152092969536418&id=641556417&set=a.10150097766036418.306861.641556417&source=48&__user=641556417

  14. Nick (West Olive/Grand Haven) says:

    Just shoveled the backyard. Built a little ice rink for the kids! Now the sprinkler is running and flooding it! Gotta love the cold!!!!!

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