Thurs. Evening Update

January 2nd, 2014 at 2:21 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  high temps Evening models:  NAM (caribou):  1/2-1″ of snow as the lake-effect band comes onshore in Ottawa, Muskegon and Oceana Counties.  Snowfall from the Sat. night/Sunday system:  0.5″ G.R., 0.6″ Muskegon, 0.4″ Big Rapids, 2.1″ Lansing, 3.9″ Kalamazoo, 4.8″ Pontiac, 5.0″ Jackson.  For Holland it never really quits snowing with 9.1″ from Sat. night to Monday morning (plus what would come from Monday into Weds. AM)…lots of insulation for those tulip bulbs.  They’ve been getting snow at the rate of 1″ an hour in the band coming off the lake into N. Indiana.  There’s a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Berrien Co. for the band coming east later tonight and early tomorrow.

Morning models:  We still have a sizable difference in low temps. for tomorrow AM, depending on where skies will (at least partially) clear out.   The European model does clear G.R. and takes us to a bone-chilling -17 tomorrow AM (which is colder temperature-wise than the European says we are going to get early next week – though the wind chills will be lower next Monday-Tuesday).  The GFS plot has more clouds holding and a low of +3 and the NAM goes to +2, though it does clear out Mt. Pleasant, taking them to -11.  The light snow has pretty much ended even south of I-94.  We do have a band of lake-effect snow that is coming on shore in N. Illinois with a NNE wind.  They’ve had a lot of snow in NE Ill. with a combination of the overrunning frontal (synoptic) snow and lake-enhancement.  Gurnee (NW of Chicago, where Great America is located) has picked up 18″ of snow in 2 days and most of the northern coast from Wilmette up to Racine, Wisconsin has had close to a foot of new snow.   That band of lake-effect snow will start moving east as winds back more to the NW and then W.   Look for 2-3″ of snow in Oceana and maybe W. Mason Co. and 1-2″ elsewhere in the lakeshore areas with flurries into the US 131 corridor.  Saturday will be breezy with the best chance of snow in the PM.  The European has the most snow from Sat. PM into Sunday with 0.31″ for G.R., which could be 6′.   The GFS keeps most of the snow just SE of our area (watch out for heavy snow from Cleveland east into western N.Y., with heavy East Coast snow – 4-5″ for Philly, 6-8″ for New York…up to 12″ with near-blizzard conditions from Long Island to Boston up into eastern Maine).   The NAM would have 2-3″ for Kent Co., 4-5″ from S. Haven to Saginaw south, just an inch for Muskegon from the passing low pressure to our south.  The cold air follows as temperatures fall to the single figures by early Sunday night.  The air coming for Monday-Tuesday is the coldest since 2007.  The European has the 850 mb temp. down to -29.6 with a 503 500 mb height and a thickness of 490.  The European has stow the highest sneady lake effect snow from Sunday night to early Weds.   Flake size will be small, but the continuous snowfall and the blowing and drifting will make this a significant event.  Strong winds may blow totals inland to the US 131 corridor.  Winds will be WNW – W, so downwind from the fattest part of Lake Michigan may see the heaviest snow (+6″ with some significant drifting).  The European has an additional 0.15″ precip. and at a 30-1 water-to-snow ratio, that would be 4-5″ even east to the G.R. airport.  The Euro. has the coldest temp. down to -5 in G.R. (even with the wind coming across Lake Michigan!) Monday evening, with a wind chill of -20 to -25.  The GFS has an mid-afternoon temp. Monday in G.R. of +1.  The temperature got down to -42 this AM at Intl. Falls MN and -46 at Embarrass MN – this cold air is brutal!  Watch me on TV tonight.  I’ll update the blog later this evening.

Also:  For the first time in 20 years, NOAA reports more record lows in 2013 than record highs.  The high of 14 in G.R. on 1/1 was the coldest high temp. on any 1/1 since 1999.  Other high temps. Weds. included +1 at Houghton MI, Minneapolis MN and Sioux Falls SD, -3 at S. Ste. Marie, -9 at Grand Forks ND and -18 at Flag Island MN.  Mlive had some nice airplane pics. of the ice at Lake Michigan.  More cool pics. hereIce forming rapidly on Lake Superior.  It’s -38 at Intl. Falls MN at 1 am their time.

 

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

247 Responses to “Thurs. Evening Update”

  1. Nic says:

    Some fun eye candy — total snow fall from now until next Friday per the GFS. This includes the system its hinting at mid-week as well:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014010300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=168

    (Hope that link works!)

  2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    For anyone that thinks we can’t get heavy snow with very cold temps just look at what Bill posted on this writeup. Up to 1″/ur snowfall rates, and the temp is frigid. I know the lake effect band with a north wind is usually stronger than a W/WNW wind, but it just shows it can snow hard this cold. -6.5 at 12AM here.

  3. Scott says:

    Double digits below cold now in South Haven.

    -10!

  4. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    -5.2 in my backyard at this hour

  5. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    The temperature is -9.8 F at 2:01 AM in Rockford. I believe the coldest I got last year was -10.0 (I don’t remember exactly when), so I should shatter that tonight! My previous low for this season was -0.2 a few weeks ago.

  6. Nicole (Otsego) says:

    -11 in Otsego right now

  7. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    …now down to -6.3 in only 30 minutes. I’d say double digits on my block is more than likely.

  8. Ive got the big goose egg here right now. A current temp of 0. I was looking at some other rural areas, and Bangor checks in a -12!

  9. Cort S. says:

    SINCE WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY MONDAY… THE HIGH TEMP FOR MONDAY 1/6 WILL PROBABLY BE THE MIDNIGHT READING. TEMPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW ZERO. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT THE HIGH ON MONDAY IS ONLY AROUND ZERO… THIS COULD BE IN THE TOP TEN COLDEST HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST AT GRR.

  10. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    So far I have a low of -8.9 on the house thermometer, and awhile ago I had -12 on the truck temp. Now house says -5.1. I have been sitting in the garage on and off for awhile. I finally had to shut the door down as I have no heat out there. Wood stove is working hard to keep er above 65 inside the house. Now I’m back down to -7.2.

  11. Dan says:

    - 6 degrees for my location now (84th and 131). Does it get colder yet prior to sunrise? Wow! brrrrr! Could you imagine if there was a 10 mph wind coming out of the a NW? Did we get transferred to Siberia?

  12. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Temp here keeps jumping around. Low so far has been -9.9. Now it’s -7.6. Another 10 degrees lower I should start hearing the roof make poping noises. I remember the nights in past years where I would hear the loud pops from above. Spring will feel real good this year.

  13. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    -9.6 now at my house. Sparta seems to be winning with -16.

  14. Ben (Charlotte MI) says:

    -13 in Charlotte currently.

  15. Jeff (Richland) says:

    -9 at my house

  16. Todd In Nunica says:

    3 sec to frozen nose insides……Thats how cold it is…..lol

  17. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! Time for my glowing NASA/endorsed thermal insulated beak warmer!

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