Thurs. Evening UpdateJanuary 2nd, 2014 at 2:21 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Evening models: NAM (caribou): 1/2-1″ of snow as the lake-effect band comes onshore in Ottawa, Muskegon and Oceana Counties. Snowfall from the Sat. night/Sunday system: 0.5″ G.R., 0.6″ Muskegon, 0.4″ Big Rapids, 2.1″ Lansing, 3.9″ Kalamazoo, 4.8″ Pontiac, 5.0″ Jackson. For Holland it never really quits snowing with 9.1″ from Sat. night to Monday morning (plus what would come from Monday into Weds. AM)…lots of insulation for those tulip bulbs. They’ve been getting snow at the rate of 1″ an hour in the band coming off the lake into N. Indiana. There’s a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Berrien Co. for the band coming east later tonight and early tomorrow.
Morning models: We still have a sizable difference in low temps. for tomorrow AM, depending on where skies will (at least partially) clear out. The European model does clear G.R. and takes us to a bone-chilling -17 tomorrow AM (which is colder temperature-wise than the European says we are going to get early next week – though the wind chills will be lower next Monday-Tuesday). The GFS plot has more clouds holding and a low of +3 and the NAM goes to +2, though it does clear out Mt. Pleasant, taking them to -11. The light snow has pretty much ended even south of I-94. We do have a band of lake-effect snow that is coming on shore in N. Illinois with a NNE wind. They’ve had a lot of snow in NE Ill. with a combination of the overrunning frontal (synoptic) snow and lake-enhancement. Gurnee (NW of Chicago, where Great America is located) has picked up 18″ of snow in 2 days and most of the northern coast from Wilmette up to Racine, Wisconsin has had close to a foot of new snow. That band of lake-effect snow will start moving east as winds back more to the NW and then W. Look for 2-3″ of snow in Oceana and maybe W. Mason Co. and 1-2″ elsewhere in the lakeshore areas with flurries into the US 131 corridor. Saturday will be breezy with the best chance of snow in the PM. The European has the most snow from Sat. PM into Sunday with 0.31″ for G.R., which could be 6′. The GFS keeps most of the snow just SE of our area (watch out for heavy snow from Cleveland east into western N.Y., with heavy East Coast snow – 4-5″ for Philly, 6-8″ for New York…up to 12″ with near-blizzard conditions from Long Island to Boston up into eastern Maine). The NAM would have 2-3″ for Kent Co., 4-5″ from S. Haven to Saginaw south, just an inch for Muskegon from the passing low pressure to our south. The cold air follows as temperatures fall to the single figures by early Sunday night. The air coming for Monday-Tuesday is the coldest since 2007. The European has the 850 mb temp. down to -29.6 with a 503 500 mb height and a thickness of 490. The European has stow the highest sneady lake effect snow from Sunday night to early Weds. Flake size will be small, but the continuous snowfall and the blowing and drifting will make this a significant event. Strong winds may blow totals inland to the US 131 corridor. Winds will be WNW – W, so downwind from the fattest part of Lake Michigan may see the heaviest snow (+6″ with some significant drifting). The European has an additional 0.15″ precip. and at a 30-1 water-to-snow ratio, that would be 4-5″ even east to the G.R. airport. The Euro. has the coldest temp. down to -5 in G.R. (even with the wind coming across Lake Michigan!) Monday evening, with a wind chill of -20 to -25. The GFS has an mid-afternoon temp. Monday in G.R. of +1. The temperature got down to -42 this AM at Intl. Falls MN and -46 at Embarrass MN – this cold air is brutal! Watch me on TV tonight. I’ll update the blog later this evening.
Also: For the first time in 20 years, NOAA reports more record lows in 2013 than record highs. The high of 14 in G.R. on 1/1 was the coldest high temp. on any 1/1 since 1999. Other high temps. Weds. included +1 at Houghton MI, Minneapolis MN and Sioux Falls SD, -3 at S. Ste. Marie, -9 at Grand Forks ND and -18 at Flag Island MN. Mlive had some nice airplane pics. of the ice at Lake Michigan. More cool pics. here. Ice forming rapidly on Lake Superior. It’s -38 at Intl. Falls MN at 1 am their time.
Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.
Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.