Snow and Cold

January 3rd, 2014 at 4:10 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   Winter Storm Watch east of a line from Holland to Alma for +6″ of snow Sat. PM thru Sunday.  Wind Chill Watch for everyone late Sun. night thru Tues. for wind chills as cold as -30.  Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan.  Flood Advisory for the Flat River near Smyrna where there is an ice jam.   The farther SE you are, the more snow you will see from the synoptic (not lake-effect) system.  There could be up to a foot of snow in Detroit and Toledo.  Then the lake-effect snow kicks in with the heavier snow a bit inland from the shore with the strong winds Monday into Tuesday.  The actual air temperature will not be as cold as it was this morning in most areas, but the strong wind will bring wind chills to 15-20 degrees colder than this morning.  The fine snow will drift and blow, creating real visibility problems.  I anticipate a lot of school closings Monday and Tuesday due to the cold and snow.  Prepare now…fill your gas tank, observe odd-even parking, keep fire hydrants clear, make sure pets are in a warm place and out of the wind, keep your bird feeders filled – it’ll be tough for them as this cold, snowy pattern continues.  Watch me tonight at 10 and 11 PM for the latest.

195 Responses to “Snow and Cold”

  1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    No matter what amounts of snow fall, it’s gonna be bitter cold, very windy (already is) with blowing snow…. downright nasty for at least a few days!

  2. John (Holland) says:

    That 00Z NAM…yes please.

    1. Sprites(Holland) says:

      Yes. Seems like Holland would get burried if it were to verify.

      Also of note, looks like HPC QPF is giving Holland/Muskegon/GR/South Haven .25″ precip or more with the storm. According to that, I would think West Michigan would receive a general 3-6″ while the east side of the state would see much more.

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Detroit landed in 3rd place for lowest maximum temperture on record for January 3. Impressive run of cold in the new year, and the coldest air is yet to come. Average highs are finally at their lowest in Detroit at 32 degrees. Up hill from here.

    1. Scott says:

      Uphill, but very slowly. Though the cold may ease in the next few weeks, the snow will pick up through February and possibly early March for Detroit, and more-so for west Michigan. When we get on the roller coaster towards springtime, it’s not going to be a little bunny-hopper I’m afraid – think we’re going to hop on a mega-coaster this year. The cold is not going to want to totally let up. In fact, I’m getting close to being ready to say we’re going to have a substantially late and stormy spring this year.

  4. Matt(OceanaCo) says:

    120hr GFS is giving all the lake shore counties 8-10!!!!

  5. Sounds like I could be in one of the better locations for lake effect. The heaviest totals will be along or just west of 131, as well as the snow will come across the fattest part of the lake. All that puts Byron Center in the right spot for this event.

    1. Scott says:

      Well. If that model’s too believed, around where I live in E. VB County, I think I’d better get the snowblowers all terrain tracks and extended throwing chutes. And maybe stilts for the operator. ;)

      I’d normally discount a model like that as seriously overdoing it – but this close to go time, and with the fact the NAM really upped the accums too – all bets are off at this point.

  6. Bnoppe says:

    I’m not sure how much snow I’ll get I’m guessing atleast 6 inches could be more could be less, I do know one fact it will be Cold

  7. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Latest NAM has pushed the heaviest amount of snow further northwest towards Grand Rapids (up to 14 inches).

  8. Bnoppe says:

    Brr…..

    1. Scott says:

      It is not very often on the NAM/KUCHERA overlays that you see BROWN. (18″+). It is extremely rare, and indicative of very powerful winter storm systems.

      1. tinainvbcounty says:

        Will be very interesting to see how this pans out. BTW, will we be flash freezing first with the warm up today suddenly changing later?

  9. Check this out as well. Fox 17′s interactive radar has us getting a direct hit between GR and Lansing

    http://fox17online.com/weather/#axzz2pPaymIJF

  10. spoon ( sunfield) says:

    Whats the deal about the snow tonighti

  11. Bnoppe says:

    Could this be our first Warning Critera snow? In Southern lower (non lk effect I should say)

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      I’d believe so. And with the watch put out, I think NWS is ready to call one as it gets closer and clearer.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      The 06Z NAM would suggest so.

  12. Scott says:

    SHORT TERM
    (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

    WE WILL BE UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN
    THE WATCH. THE NW EDGE OF THE WATCH WILL BE TRANSITIONED TO AN
    ADVISORY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. THE MAIN PERIOD OF
    CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING
    WITH THE SNOW. THE WIND CHILL WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME
    BEING.

    WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW
    CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE SNOW WILL START OUT RATHER LIGHT AS
    THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT LIGHTS UP A BIT LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SHORT
    WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. ALSO…THERE
    LOOKS TO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. DELTA T/S ARE NOT IN THE
    TEENS…BUT THEY WILL BE ALMOST 10C WHICH IS USUALLY SUFFICIENT
    ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SMALL BOOST FROM THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
    SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE THAT WILL ALSO HELP.

    THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THIS
    EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
    SHORT WAVE WILL INITIALLY ZIP TO THE NE OF THE CWFA AFTER 18Z TODAY.
    WE WILL THEN SEE THE RRQ MOVE OVER THE AREA VIA A 140 KT JET STREAK
    SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL ACT ON THE FRONT AND THE LIMITED LAKE
    CONTRIBUTION TO SPREAD THE SNOW INLAND A BIT MORE. THE FRONT SHOULD
    MOVE SE OF KGRR AFTER 00Z AND FOCUS THE BETTER SNOW DOWN THERE.

    LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THEN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA LATER
    TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. WE LOSE THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS…BUT WE
    CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/OVERRUNNING SITUATION NW
    OF THE FRONT THAT THEN STALLS OUT TO OUR SE. THIS FRONT WILL BE
    AWAITING THE NEXT UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
    AROUND 12Z SUN BEFORE LIFTING NE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
    WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SUN
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    ONCE THE SYSTEM SNOW MOVES OUT SUN EVENING…WE WILL SEE NW FLOW
    LAKE EFFECT BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR
    THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Thanks for posting!

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I wish they would elaborate on which models they use. I have no idea what the 00Z ECMWF looks like. The 06Z NAM that just came in has unrealistic snow totals of over 20″ for parts West Michigan…and many areas well over a foot.

  13. Scott says:

    MIZ059-065>067-071>074-041645-
    /O.UPG.KGRR.WS.A.0001.140105T0000Z-140106T0600Z/
    /O.NEW.KGRR.WS.W.0001.140105T0000Z-140106T0600Z/
    /O.CON.KGRR.WC.A.0001.140106T0600Z-140107T1800Z/
    CLINTON-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ST. JOHNS…HASTINGS…CHARLOTTE…
    LANSING…SOUTH HAVEN…KALAMAZOO…BATTLE CREEK…JACKSON
    336 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
    EST MONDAY…
    …WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
    THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    STORM WARNING FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
    1 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER…

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO LOCALLY 10 INCHES EXPECTED FROM
    SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

    * WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD CREATE
    BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 BELOW POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
    MORNING.

    IMPACTS…

    * DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
    EVENING WITH SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.

    * UNSAFE TO BE OUTDOORS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR PROLONGED PERIODS
    OF TIME DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS.

    * POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY.

  14. Scott says:

    GRATIOT-IONIA-ALLEGAN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALMA…IONIA…HOLLAND
    336 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
    1 AM EST MONDAY…
    …WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
    THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
    AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
    IN EFFECT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER…

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

    * WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD CREATE
    BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY
    MORNING.

  15. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Here is the 06Z snow map. Has me in that 22-24″ sweet spot. Half of that would be a surprise.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014010406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Would this be including any lake effect snow, maybe?

    2. Scott says:

      I think a lot of that has to do with what was discussed in NWS, Lake enhancement. Which would be surprising, because operational models don’t really pick up on that. What is also possible is it’s picking up on a convergence area of enhanced lift. That was somewhat alluded to in the discussion. If you got a narrow band of lake effect snow as a result of convergence banding, that’s really the only way I could see coming close to realizing 2 feet of snow with this.

      Nevertheless, the models are indeed picking up intense snow bands. The problem is, “is it real?” I don’t think nearly to the degree NAM wants it to be by any means. If NWS thought that was realistic up there, there’d be a warning up, and there’s not.

      Just guesses about that. I just wish I knew what in the world NAM was thinking. Wouldn’t that be a surprise if it was on to some sort of mesoscale convergence and shocked the snow showers out of everybody!

      1. tinainvbcounty says:

        Kind of interesting that the warning begins at 7pm, and the advisory starts at 4 pm….

  16. Scott says:

    Cleveland is holding with a Winter Storm Watch for their counties. I’m betting this is because of a more NW track – and now there is some uncertainty if their counties will reach warning criteria.

  17. tinainvbcounty says:

    Already got my milk and bread (and cereal, pb and j). Laugh at me if you will, but with tween and teen in the house, I do not want to be caught without! ;)

    1. Scott says:

      Same thing here. Got my cocoa puffs. That’s a mandatory Winter Storm Food Group. :)

  18. Scott says:

    And I must add. Out of the ENTIRE Winter Storm Watch area from Missourri and Northeast, Grand Rapids was the FIRST to upgrade to a WARNING this morning!

    Now THAT is a change of pace!

  19. Scott says:

    Get this interesting fact: Windchills to -65 up in Minnesota. They’re saying exposed flesh will freeze in just 5 minutes up there. That is some ridiculously serious cold!!!

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Yuck. That’s just too cold for me!

  20. Reid (Schoolcraft) says:

    looks like Kalamazoo area is in the bullseye for a lot of snow…

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Bring it! We’ve been waiting too long for a real snow storm!

      1. Reid (Schoolcraft) says:

        I don’t mind it… I am just not looking forward to shoveling in – temps!

  21. WickedTwister says:

    Fox 17 was mentioning potential for lake enhancement during this storm? Is tht possible?

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