Radar and Links for Winter Storm

January 4th, 2014 at 12:18 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Snow already breaking out north of a line from S. Haven to Big Rapids.  Heavier snow coming farther north into NW. Allegan, Ottawa, Muskegon, Kent – more to follow, keep coming back to the blog.  Lake effect and synoptic storm snow already cranking up in Allegan, Ottawa, Kent, Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Newaygo and Lake  Counties.  Drifting a factor.  Check out the NAM model 84-hour snowfall (large over 18″ area!) and the GFS 120-hour snowfall (5-day totals of 16-18″ between G.R. and Indiana).  Keep watching WOOD-TV and coming here to www.woodtv.com for the latest.  I anticipate lots of closings/cancellations over the next several days.    EUROPEAN model has 0.50″ precip. for G.R. by Monday AM – even at a conservative 20-1 ratio, that’s 10″.  Total of 0.82″ thru Thurs. AM would be +16″!!

Shiverin’ Snowman!!   Morning model data really rampin’ up the snow totals:   NAM (Caribou) snow totals thru Tuesday (keep in mind these are often overdone, but even if half this, with strong winds and drifting, this will be a major snow event:  S. Haven 24.7″, Holland 22.4″, Lansing 19.6″, Grand Rapids 19.1″, Jackson 15.5″, Pontiac 15″, Mt. Pleasant 13.4″, Muskegon 10″, 8″ Big Rapids, 5″ Cadillac.   The GFS (caribou)…first number is thru Tues., second number is snowfall for Weds. to Thurs. AM:  Grand Rapids 9.3″ + 2.8″, Kalamazoo 9.7″ + 3.3″, Jackson 9.2″ + 3.5″, Ludington 3.7″ + 1.2″, Muskegon 7.5″ total, Cadillac 2.2″ + 0.4″.  Big Rapids 3.2″ + 1.3″.       The NAM (caribou) only takes G.R. to a low temp. of +2 Monday evening (with a 17 mph wind).   The wind stays west off Lake Michigan.  The wind goes WSW at Muskegon and the temp. at Kalamazoo goes to -10 (with a 23 mph wind), so Monday PM into Tuesday, the coldest wind chills will be southeast of G.R. where the wind is not coming across Lake Michigan.  +2 deg. with a 17 mph wind is a wind chill of -18 and -10 with a 23 mph wind is a wind chill of -37 – Big Difference.     Also peak winds today occurring now…the wind will ease back a bit as the afternoon/evening goes on.   NAM/WRF has big snow dump south of a line from Muskegon to Saginaw area.   The combination of synoptic snow plus lake-effect means huge snow dump somewhere in Allegan/Van Buren – maybe even into Kent, Barry, Kalamazoo.   Coldest air in 20 years?   Up to 16″ of snow in 24 hours in the U.P. – 52″ of snow on the ground at Painesdale.  ICE expanding rapidly on the Great Lakes.   Cold safety tips.

Also:   Coldest NFL football gamesWind Chill Forecast for Green Bay at 1 AM Monday -38!!  11 deg. and flurries for Macon GA??   Frozen Nation!  Minneapolis NWS says:  “”Wind chills colder than -50F can cause exposed flesh to freeze in only 5-10 mins.”  Major volcanic eruption in Indonesia.    VERY COLD, then a warm-up for a few days – then back to the deep freezeCold reloads!

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

160 Responses to “Radar and Links for Winter Storm”

  1. Jen in Middleville says:

    Gotta make it my eye dr app Monday! Need contacts so bad! Here’s to hoping!

  2. John says:

    Winter weather advisory for me, 3-6″ of snow

  3. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    Finally snowing here!

  4. Lisa says:

    Kent is in the WSW area now. :)

  5. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Wind is not too bad here, 6-8 mph and 29.

  6. any locations that get 4 or more inches will really have some nasty drifting and if you get 8 then enjoy staying home and watching a movie marathon. Over please send me your cool pictures. At the Bowling alley with my 8 year old. First time bowling with no help and got a 52 lol but had a good time

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      I’ll get some pics from Van Buren when it gets ramped up.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Nice call on the track of storm moving to the NW! FANTASTIC! Rock n Roll will never die baby!

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Nice job on the 52, Mark. Keep practicing and you’ll break 100 before you know it.

      1. That was my son Jack but it’s been awhile since I bowled so I’m sure I wouldn’t have faired much better

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Yes I know. LOL

  7. SPECIAL ATTENTION: eastbound 108th st just east of Byron Center Ave is drifted shut in the right lane.

  8. Brian(Grandville) says:

    18Z NAM still gives everyone south of Muskegon to Mt. Plesaent quite a big dump.

  9. I can only imagine how many roads will be impassable with the drifting. 108th is nearly drifted shut and cars that try to plow there way through it get stuck

  10. jj.jenison says:

    Snowing at a very good rate here in Jenison. Been in the sweet spot most of the time from this first wave.

  11. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    It’s like a snowmobiling highway in front of our house today. There was a ton of trailers at the Martin parking lot when I went through around 1PM. Looking to be epic snowmobiling conditions from tomorrow and on.

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      Sure will be.

  12. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Light snow has began falling here …

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I just got back from the Fife Lake area and the trails are AWESOME. 24+ inches of SNOW on the ground! Simply incredible conditions! I love it! We are now in a WSW? Get ready to ROCK n ROLL people. We might just get hammered with COLD and SNOW!

  14. Randall says:

    Maybe getting greedy but aren’t many areas approaching blizzard warning criterion? What are the chances of warnings being issued?

    1. Scott says:

      Latest forecast discussion:

      I MOVED BOTH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
      ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FATHER NORTH. I DID NOT CHANGE THE TIMES OF
      THOSE HEADLINES. I ALSO DID NOT CHANGE THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT ALL
      BUT THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO SOME SORT OF WINTER
      WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS STORM IS OUT OF THE PICTURE SINCE THERE
      WILL BE A SNOW AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR AND
      WEST OF US-131 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS COLD AIR COMES
      IN.

      THERE AREA THREE PARTS TO THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. FIRST IS A
      WAVE ON THE FRONT COMING THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH THE AID OF SOME
      FGEN WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN 50
      MILES OR SO OF I-96 (MORE OR LESS). THE RAP…HRRR…NAM…GFS AND
      ECMWF ALL GO ALONG WITH THIS IDEA. QPF IN THE .2 TO .4 INCH RANGE
      IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS SO THAT WOULD BE 3 TO 6 INCHES
      OF SNOW.

      THE NEXT PHASE IS THE STORM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
      NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW
      AND THE GFS IS ONLY RECENTLY LOCKED ON TO IT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
      HAS BEEN FORECASTING IT IN NEARLY EVERY RUN FOR NEARLY 2 WEEKS
      NOW. SO I AVERAGED THE QPF FROM THE NAM…GFS…AND ECMWF TO COME
      UP WITH MY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW HALF
      OF ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THAT… I MOVED THE
      HEADLINES ONE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

      LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WITH -30 TO -35C
      850 TEMPS MOVING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE DGZ
      ON THE GROUND WE WILL SEE ONLY SMALL SNOWFLAKES… THAT WILL LIMIT
      ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
      BLOWING AND DRIFTING SO WE WILL LIKELY NEED MORE THAN JUST A WIND
      CHILL HEADLINE OFF THIS. WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT IN LATER
      FORECASTS.

    2. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      I think official blizzard is snowing with 35+mph winds for 3 hours.

      1. Scott says:

        Accidentally posted this as a reply to another post. Here’s the latest forecast reasoning:

        I MOVED BOTH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
        ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FATHER NORTH. I DID NOT CHANGE THE TIMES OF
        THOSE HEADLINES. I ALSO DID NOT CHANGE THE WIND CHILL WATCH AT ALL
        BUT THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO SOME SORT OF WINTER
        WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS STORM IS OUT OF THE PICTURE SINCE THERE
        WILL BE A SNOW AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR AND
        WEST OF US-131 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS COLD AIR COMES
        IN.

        THERE AREA THREE PARTS TO THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. FIRST IS A
        WAVE ON THE FRONT COMING THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH THE AID OF SOME
        FGEN WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN 50
        MILES OR SO OF I-96 (MORE OR LESS). THE RAP…HRRR…NAM…GFS AND
        ECMWF ALL GO ALONG WITH THIS IDEA. QPF IN THE .2 TO .4 INCH RANGE
        IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS SO THAT WOULD BE 3 TO 6 INCHES
        OF SNOW.

        THE NEXT PHASE IS THE STORM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
        NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW
        AND THE GFS IS ONLY RECENTLY LOCKED ON TO IT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
        HAS BEEN FORECASTING IT IN NEARLY EVERY RUN FOR NEARLY 2 WEEKS
        NOW. SO I AVERAGED THE QPF FROM THE NAM…GFS…AND ECMWF TO COME
        UP WITH MY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW HALF
        OF ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THAT… I MOVED THE
        HEADLINES ONE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

        LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WITH -30 TO -35C
        850 TEMPS MOVING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE DGZ
        ON THE GROUND WE WILL SEE ONLY SMALL SNOWFLAKES… THAT WILL LIMIT
        ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
        BLOWING AND DRIFTING SO WE WILL LIKELY NEED MORE THAN JUST A WIND
        CHILL HEADLINE OFF THIS. WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT IN LATER
        FORECASTS.

      2. Cort S. says:

        Correct. And 1/4 mile visibility.

        (You can also have a ground blizzard too, if it isn’t snowing, but 35 mph winds and blowing snow reduce visibility to a quarter mile for 3 hours)

  15. Lol check out Fox 17′s futurecast interactive radar. Its is WAYY overdone but it gives Berrien and western Van Buren 3 feet of snow lol! with 2 feet in Allegan. And one to two feet for Ottawa and Kent. Of course that is wayy overdone but it is interesting to look at!!

    1. Randall says:

      Even if they are overdone I will gladly take even half of what they are predicting!!

    2. Jeff (Portland) says:

      Always fun to look at. Just think if this was to happen. Things would be at a stand still for days !

    3. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      how long of a timeframe?

      1. That futurecast runs through 2PM Monday! lol

  16. Jack says:

    ******* JEM Model Update****** Coming Soon……Stay Cued **********. ;-)

  17. Darla Francis says:

    Bill, can you tell me what the worst wind chill was in East Lansing history? I was a student there from 1984-1987 and I think it was January or February of ’85 when the prediction was for -60 wind chill. I try to tell my college kids this and they think I’m bluffing. Would love to know if my memory serves me right!

  18. Getting moderate snow here in Byron Center. I had a guy in front of me spin out..hit a car in the lane next to me, then spin back the other direction and slid into the ditch. It was a pretty interesting 10 seconds on 131 just south of 28th st about an hour ago.

  19. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Wow really interesting how fast the heavy snow is filling in over in Illinois!!!

  20. Scott says:

    oh jeez. So I replied the latest Area Forecast Discussion as a reply to another post twice accidentally. Facepalm.

    If you want to see the AFD discussion, just scroll up and read one of my two accidental replies. Sigh. LOL

  21. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAAK! Having to “hunt and peck” for my ice scraper!

  22. 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin says:

    If I see Mother Nature she’s getting a stunner, no questions asked.

    1. Stephen(NorthMuskegon) says:

      Are you going to give her the finger first and share a beer with her?

  23. Stephen(NorthMuskegon) says:

    Already had 2 inches its a very fine snow very slick out there

  24. Jay (Alto) says:

    Steady snow past 2 hours. Hows Alto looking for storm totals?

    1. Well there is a Winter Storm Warning in place for Kent County with expected 6-12″. Can’t give an exact value just expect at the least 6″

  25. John says:

    2.5″ in the last three hours, more on the way tonight and tomorrow! :)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I am pleasantly surprised with how much we have had in such a short period of time. I have over 3 inches from just this afternoon. I am a little surprised there is no talk of Muskegon County being in the warning. GRR NWS always leaves them out.

  26. Jack says:

    I’m Hoping for Some ” Thunder- Snow” on Sunday !!!! Stay Cued ! ;-)

  27. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    So what is the timing on this stuff…snow gets heavier when? wind? Temps drop all day tomm it looks like.

  28. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We are in a COLD and SNOWY pattern with no change in sight!!!!!!!!!

    1. John (Holland) says:

      YES PLEASE.

  29. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Snow looks to be re grouping in Iillinios..

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      A conveyor belt of SNOW is heading right at us! Get ready to ROCK!

  30. kentwoodchicken says:

    Well, it would certainly be something if there was a “snownado” BWAAAK!

  31. Jack says:

    ***** JEM Model****** SATURDAY CUE….2 Rack, Track & STACK ….This Snow Storm !! JEM,RDB , and THEEEEE IWS ! Are Large and In Charge !!!!! Sit Back enjoy The Storm , and Cues, Plus Sooooo Much More Available ONLY on BLIZZARD BILL’ S BLOG !!! Turn this UP BILL, Rocky and Indy !!!!! CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Riwt0hGdBeE. ;-)

  32. shelbyville says:

    Check this out..http://hint.fm/wind/

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks, Love That WIND Link !!

      1. shelbyville says:

        That flow is amazing…

  33. kentwoodchicken says:

    Holy twirlin’ trash barrels! BWAAAK!

  34. Scott says:

    I wanted to share these interesting comments from Detroit that help explain what’s going on.

    SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX AS A DIGGING
    WAVE OVER THE 4-CORNERS WRAPS NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
    AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM TRENDED IN THE
    DIRECTION OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERN WAVE AND MORE
    INTERACTION BETWEEN SAID WAVE AND THE DIGGING LOBE OF THE POLAR
    VORTEX WHICH IS ANCHORING AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE. THE NET EFFECT IS
    THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEING SHOWN TO WRAP MORE AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
    GREAT LAKES PROMPTING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE AND
    ULTIMATELY A NORTHWEST SHIFT IN THE SENSIBLE WX FIELDS. EVENT-TOTAL
    PEAK QPF IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS RANGES FROM AROUND 1.00″ ON
    THE LOW END (GEM-REG) TO 1.30+” ON THE HIGH END (ECMWF). THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED UPWARD TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO 0.90″.

    THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RESPONSE APPEARS TO BE NOT ONLY DUE TO
    STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS, BUT ALSO
    DUE TO A COUPLING OF JET STREAKS OVER LOWER PENINSULA. PLANVIEWS OF
    250MB AGEOSTROPHIC WIND VECTORS CONFIRM THAT THE APPROACHING CURVED
    SOUTHERN JET STREAK AND THE DEPARTING NORTHERN JET ARE BEING SHOWN
    TO PRODUCE INCREDIBLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE – AND WITHIN A REGION
    OF STRONG SUPERGEOSTROPHIC ACCELERATION TO BOOT. THIS SUPPORTS
    MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF AN INTENSE PERIOD OF HEAVY
    SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN RATES OF 1″/HOUR
    ARE LIKELY. THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED ACCORDINGLY IN THIS DIRECTION.
    PEAK SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 10″ ARE NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR ROUGHLY
    ALONG A SANDUSKY TO FLINT LINE WITH A SOLID 6-10″ EVERYWHERE ELSE.

    1. Scott says:

      For those of you who are saying “HUH? WHAT? WHAZZAT?” Let me break this down simply.

      An area of low pressure is going to be moving northeast from Arklatex. The large mass of very cold air is digging rapidly and producing waves along it. Because of how aggressively the southern wave is set to wrap into the area, the response of the low pressure area is to move more Northwest, which is what the models have shown recently.

      Jet streaks are fast moving segments of air high in the atmosphere that move incredibly fast. What Detroit is saying is going to happen is that there is going to be a “Coupling” of jet streaks over the lower peninsula. One of the jet streaks is departing (the northern one) and one of teh jet streaks is approaching (the southern one). When this happens, it produces an area that needs to be filled with air in the upper levels. This is where they are saying the incredible lift comes in where the air between the two fast moving jets of air needs to be filled. This is why the models have latched on to such incredible snowfall potential as the air rises to the upper levels between the approaching and departing jet streaks (known as an area of divergence). This explains what the NAM has latched onto, and now the GFS has latched on to, as well as the high res models that WGN has been using and the NWS.

      1. Scott says:

        If you want to understand divergence and convergence more, here’s a good read.

        http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele-condiv-e.htm

  35. kentwoodchicken says:

    In other words: A snownado!

    1. Scott says:

      BWAAK! You know, one of the best things I love seeing in a snowstorm is the snownadoes that whip up in the open fields. I love watching those things race!

      1. kentwoodchicken says:

        BWAAK! Hope you keep your feathers numbered in that situation!

  36. SW Kent says:

    NWS forecasting 16 inches for Byron Center.
    Most I have ever seen forecasted.

    1. Trouble says:

      Seems like we’ve been in the path of a lot of systems! Glad the store is within walking distance!

  37. Kevmo says:

    where is everyone???

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      New thread.

  38. Blharr4400 says:

    I can’t get to the new thread as there is no title with a hyper link on it on my iPhone…. Can someone please post the link to the new thread for me

  39. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    New thread ? Where ?

    1. Jrod says:

      No link on mobile site

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      If your on a smart phone, if the thread is under Bill Steffens, you normally cant access it. At least that’s what I’ve noticed.

  40. Blharr44 says:

    I am on my iPhone and can’t get the new thread as there is no bold text that’s a hyper link at the top of the text. Can someone please post a link to the new thread for me

  41. Kevin (Laketown Twp.) says:

    Can’t find the link to the new thread

  42. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Didnt see it on laptop either…looks like there was one, but now no title name…….

  43. Chip (Holland) says:

    I can’t find it either.

  44. Christina says:

    Would traveling from Dorr to Cadillac (and back again) tomorrow, January 5, not be advisable then? Have a holiday get together planned and I’m worried about making the round trip in light of the forecast. Thanks!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      There won’t be as much snow up in Cadillac…but Dorr is going to get a lot of snow. I’d probably try and go myself if it was me and this was my holiday party. You’ll need a little extra time to get there and it may be slow going from Dorr thru Kent Co.

  45. Badjohnny(hopkins) says:

    Looks like we got 7.5 to 8 inches snow here in Hopkins since we shoveled last nite. All flat surfaces are pretty uniform in our measure.

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