Winter Storm Warning/Advisory

January 4th, 2014 at 3:50 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   10:51 am update from GRR NWS lead forecaster: ” I AM SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT  LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. SEEMS TO ME THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONVERGING ON A  SOLUTION BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS PUTTING THE HEAVIER  PRECIPITATION TONIGHT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR  GRAND HAVEN TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA. THE RAP 13Z AND NAM12 SHOW A  BAND OF .2 TO .4 QPF BY 12Z SUNDAY FROM ALONG THAT LINE…AS DOES  THE 12Z GFS. THIS SNOW BAND IS FGEN RELATED AND IS A REFLECTION  OF WHERE THE FRONT IS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. WHICH TO ME  SUGGESTS HEAVY SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES  FATHER NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW THOUGH I PLAN ON LEAVING  HEADLINES AS THEY ARE SINCE THE GFS IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE NAM FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE STORM QPF.”

The GRR NWS has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10″ of snow.  The Warning includes these counties:  Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Clinton, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson.  Counties in SE Michigan and the counties along the Indiana border into N. Indiana and NW Ohio will likely also be added.   The Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from 7 PM today to 1 AM Monday.   A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect for Ottawa, Kent, Allegan,  Gratiot, Ionia and Montcalm Counties from 4 PM today until 1 AM Monday for 3-6″ of snow.  Winds will increase Sunday PM/night and that will cause drifting snow.  The snow won’t quit when the Advisory/Warning ends – we’ll transition to lake-effect with the coldest air Monday PM/Night.  The high temperature on Monday will occur at 12:01 am and the high temperature on Tuesday will occur at 11:59 PM with the coldest readings around -5 Monday evening.  The European model would give G.R. about 4″ of snow by mid-morning Sunday and it just snows more on than off to Thurs. AM.  Total precip. on the Euro. for G.R. is 0.68″ thru Thurs., which at even 20-1 water to snow would give us about 14″ total.  That’ll settle some, but the wind could easily blow that into 2-3 foot drifts.  The NAM (caribou) snowfall totals are:  7.6″ thru Sun. evening and another 1.2″ Monday, Lansing 7.4″ then 0.9″, Jackson 8.5″ then 0.7″.  Other totals from the NAM out to 84 hours:  Holland 13.9″, S. Haven 13.6″, Muskegon 11.3″, Ludington 10.5″, Mt. Pleasant 9.2″, Kalamazoo 9.2″, Big Rapids 8″ and Cadillac 6.9″.  The RPM is similar with a lot of snow from S. Ottawa to Van Buren Co.  I’ll update again around midday.

Some things to think about…you might want to fill-up at the gas pump…you probably won’t want to do that Monday or Tuesday.  Sat. AM/Midday should be dry in most areas, so this would be a good time to get the shopping down and stock up on supplies.   Make sure fire hydrants are clear of snow…observe odd/even parking if your city does that…keep pets indoors on the coldest days and make sure they have adequate food and (unfrozen) water…keep the bird feeders full.  The birds are going to have a more difficult time with the cold, the wind, the snow and all the snow on the ground…and check on your neighbors and friends and make sure they’re OK.

Also, the cool air got to Florida…the afternoon high was just 49 at Orlando and Daytona Beach.  Mobile struggled to 43.  Other highs Friday:  17 Indianapolis, 18 Philadelphia and Cincinnati, 16 Pittsburgh, 15 Cleveland, 14 Boston, 5 Albany, 0 Watertown NY, -8 Caribou ME.   On the mild side:  62 Denver, 76 Tucson, 71 Ukiah CA, 52 Helena MT.

To repeat what I said on TV – I do expect quite a few schools will be closed on Monday and probably Tuesday as well.  The governor of Minnesota has cancelled school for Monday already for the entire state and Milwaukee has closed their schools for Monday.  Governor Walker is thinking about closing all schools on Monday in Wisconsin.  People have asked if our governor would do that.   First, even though it’ll be REALLY cold here…it’ll be 5-10 degrees warmer than Wisconsin and Minnesota.  Second, Michigan is a big state going from Monroe and Detroit to Ironwood.  From Ironwood to the SE tip of Michigan is 625 miles if you’re driving and about 460 miles in a straight line.   It’s not often that you’d have conditions that would warrant closing all schools over such a large area.  Even within a smaller area, conditions and plowing may be acceptable for schools to open in East Grand Rapids, but not in Sparta where there may be more drifting out in the country.       I’ll update around midday.  Enjoy your weekend.


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178 Responses to “Winter Storm Warning/Advisory”

  1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I will be back at around 4 or 5PM to check the weather. Hopefully things finally change by then!

  2. GFS Loading, 18 hours in nice band sw to ne
    Muskegon to Bay City on the north side and
    South Haven To Lansing on the south side

  3. Bobby (Ada) says:

    All I can say is wow! Take it for what it’s worth, because it is the NAM afterall, but the new 12Z sure is the most impressive with snow totals that i’ve seen in quite a while. And it has been consistent over the last few runs – moving the system further north and west.

    http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=IWX

    1. Reid (Schoolcraft) says:

      wow… it has shifted a bit… looks like I am in the bullseye… even if it is a bit overdone… I will get well over a foot.

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Looks further northwest: http://coolwx.com/ptype/

  5. NWS Gaylord, looks to be making some snowfall updates but not til around mid day, GFS is northwest again so hang on to your butts people.

    1. Well, I take that back, it’s about the same actually.

    2. John says:

      It’s actually a little more northwest compared to the 06Z run

  6. John says:

    12Z GFS is more northwest! :)

  7. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    Could the next 84 hours or so be one of the most intense winter events West Michigan has ever seen? It’s looking more and more likely. This storm system, as well as the LES behind it, is suggesting amounts of snow that could be record-breaking in some locations. Even if some of the snow predictions are too high, we are looking at easily warning criteria snows with strong winds, blowing snow, and absolutely brutal wind chills of -20 to -30 degrees by Monday. The combination of all of these factors will make this, in my opinion, a memorable event for a long, long time!

    1. John says:

      And most school districts are already talking the possibility of canceling classes on Monday, very rare do districts talk in a couple days advanced about closing school

    2. Bobby (Ada) says:

      This definitely has the potential to be one of the worst winter storms for West Michigan in at least 4-5 years. There WILL be blizzard warnings tomorrow and Monday with 30-50mph winds and heavy snow!

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Just took down the Christmas lights. Considering it’s 30 degrees warmer than it was yesterday morning, itfeels pretty nice out.

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      I’ve got a reading of 29.3 degrees here. I’m sure when I step outside it will feel like spring! Enjoy the “warmth” for the next few hours, because we are in for quite the plunge.

  9. John says:

    Muskegon county right now is right on the edge of the heaviest snow, still looks like a good 5-6″ for most of the county today into tomorrow, defiantly advisory type snows

    1. dereks says:

      How about Montcalm county especially the northeast part of it?

  10. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    32* here but windy. Wind blew the top layer of snow away leaving just the crusty stuff from the freezing rain a couple of weeks ago…

  11. Jay S.(US31/I96 corridor) says:

    Anyone think that the advisory/warnings will be added even further north?

    1. advisories I think will be added and depending on ECMWF maybe another row of warnings

      1. dereks says:

        Hey Mark,what does it look like for eastern Montacalm county and Gratiot county?

    2. Jesse says:

      From the NWS about 20 mins ago.

      I AM SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT
      LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AFTERNOON
      FORECAST UPDATE. SEEMS TO ME THE MODEL CONSUS IS CONVERGING ON A
      SOLUTION BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS PUTTING THE HEAVIER
      PRECIPITATION TONIGHT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
      GRAND HAVEN TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA. THE RAP 13Z AND NAM12 SHOW A
      BAND OF .2 TO .4 QPF BY 12Z SUNDAY FROM ALONG THAT LINE…AS DOES
      THE 12Z GFS. THIS SNOW BAND IS FGEN RELATED AND IS A REFLECTION
      OF WHERE THE FRONT IS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. WHICH TO ME
      SUGGESTS HEAVY SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES
      FATHER NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW THOUGH I PLAN ON LEAVING
      HEADLINES AS THEY ARE SINCE THE GFS IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE NAM
      FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE STORM QPF.
      &&

      1. Jay S.(US31/I96 corridor) says:

        Hmm. That’s what I was thinking

  12. Jesse says:

    New update from GRR NWS. Looks like the warning may be expanded.

    I AM SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT
    LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AFTERNOON
    FORECAST UPDATE. SEEMS TO ME THE MODEL CONSUS IS CONVERGING ON A
    SOLUTION BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS PUTTING THE HEAVIER
    PRECIPITATION TONIGHT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
    GRAND HAVEN TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA. THE RAP 13Z AND NAM12 SHOW A
    BAND OF .2 TO .4 QPF BY 12Z SUNDAY FROM ALONG THAT LINE…AS DOES
    THE 12Z GFS. THIS SNOW BAND IS FGEN RELATED AND IS A REFLECTION
    OF WHERE THE FRONT IS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. WHICH TO ME
    SUGGESTS HEAVY SNOW IS MORE THAN LIKELY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES
    FATHER NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW THOUGH I PLAN ON LEAVING
    HEADLINES AS THEY ARE SINCE THE GFS IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE NAM
    FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE STORM QPF.
    &&

  13. In my comments from yesterday, I noted Gratiot county, Ionia and a couple of other counties that might or might not be added to the “watch at the time” and they were. Then just advisory, so it’s has been that area that is buffer area that is ify but I do agree they will be upgraded as the NWS talked about. Montcalm and Kent then probably Midland and Saginaw and Bay counties

    1. dereks says:

      What are the models saying about totals in eastern Montcalm county into Gratiot?

  14. Scott says:

    This makes me wonder if this is what the NAM was picking up – as well as the models WGN was using – with the very high snowfall totals that were being shown in that general area, along with a 22″ bullseye on a rapid refresh model. Perhaps it was on to FGEN banding with lake effect enhancement and convergence in those areas and wasn’t a “fluke” after all. If that’s the case, then there is some scientific reasoning behind the excessive snowfall totals that has been showing up on NAM for the last few runs that are at the “top of the scales”. IF, and IF that’s the case, which I can’t help but doubt and still think the NAM totals are WAY excessive, then we could be approaching snowfall totals that haven’t been seen in quite a while. Again – I’m doubtful of that. I do think that the warnings will be expanded north – models are consistent now it seems with a NW push – and am thinking snowfall totals of 12″ are more likely but I can’t seem to buy into the really excessive totals. Just seems way too overdone, even with FGEN banding and enhancement convergence.

  15. It would be pretty cool if Kent could be included in the WSW if they decide to expand it. With the WWA being pushed another row to the NW

  16. Also in support of the NAM is and this is a curveball reasoning so bare with me LOL The Green Bay vs Dallas game per Weather Bell very early posted on twitter about temps -15 to possible -17 with a 15mph wind and possible wind chill readings to around -50 jump ahead to around the time the NAM 12z rolled in Joe B posted an update for the game now saying the core of the colder air would be 12 hours west of Green Bay for game so temps would likely be in the single digits above zero ! So the colder air is west and the front has or will slow thus the low moving up our front will be west leading to the output of the NAM.

    1. Bobby (Ada) says:

      I can dig it! I think anyone southwest of a Muskegon to Mt. Pleasant line will be seeing at least 6″ of snow from this one, and then Ottawa & Kent Counties to the south and west will be hit hard with heavy LE after the front moves through.

      1. Bobby (Ada) says:

        **Southeast

    2. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Green Bay is playing the SF 49ers tomorrow, not trying to be snarky.:-)

    3. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Green Bay vs San Francisco

  17. John says:

    My guess is the WSW will be expanded for Ottawa, Allegan, Kent, Ionia, Montcalm and Graciot counties and the WWA will be expanded for Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isebella, and Clare counties

    1. Scott says:

      Probably a good guess. Might be expanded even a little more then that.

      1. John says:

        I doubt Oceana county to the north will be added, the GFS only gives them 1-3″ with this system

    2. John says:

      I could also see northeastern lower counties being added to the WWA

  18. John says:

    The NWS in Chicago is expanding headlines as well, Chicago now included in the winter storm warning

    1. Scott says:

      Not just Chicago, but points north to the Wisconsin border, and west as well. That’s a fairly significant adjustment, and for good reason.

  19. Looks like things are coming together for a lot of west michigan with a little more NW track. I was checking out Fox 17′s interactive radar futurecast where you can advance it yourself to see totals and it gave people from Holland to 131 down to the border 1 foot to 2 feet of snow. I assume thats way overdone but it sure seems quite a few models are on the higher end, as well as this interactive one.

  20. Jim says:

    Don’t get me wrong it’s going to cold and snowy but leave it to “Scare” Team 8 to blow this WAY out of proportion, as usual, just saying.

    1. fixxxer says:

      the eastside of the state will get alot of snow today.

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      FOX17 posted a link saying life threatening cold with up to 20″ of snow.

    3. I didn’t see it, I don’t get TV8 anymore on our system, what did they say to scare ?

    4. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      from what I’ve seen, Woodtv is one of the more conservative stations on snowfall… they are saying 4-8 inches for me and less up toward GR. The weather channel, fox, NWS are all saying snow totals will be higher than that.

      (that was as of this morning, they may have changed their estimates since then)

  21. fixxxer says:

    according to the long range it should be a pretty mild spring, BRING IT ON! screw this weather.

    1. Andy says:

      Laxatives should help your constipation dude!! Maybe then you will be less of a MR GWUMPY GILLS!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA

  22. Sheri (Eaton Rapids) says:

    Where is Eaton county standing at this time with all the talk of shifting and adding additional Northern Counties? We were sort of in the bulls eye earlier… I realize that we will get a lot, but being the snow lover that I am .. I want it all :)

  23. John says:

    Things are looking more likely for our west Michigan counties to be expanded northward in the advisories for this afternoon

  24. dylan (Northview) says:

    They upped KENT county tomorrow night to 4-8 by tomorrow night!!! :) WOOOHOOO!!! KEEP UPPIN IT!! haha

    1. dylan (Northview) says:

      Sorry…computer is bein stupid!! haha They UPPED Kent county…so instead of 3-6 by tomorrow night, now they are saying 4-8 by tomorrow night!! WOOOHOOO!!! :)

  25. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    First off I am up to 32° here with a good bit of wind and some light snow now starting.
    SlimJim

  26. John says:

    By the looks of the radar right now the heaviest snow would be along and south of M-20

  27. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Snow began in Holland about 15 minutes ago. It has picked up in intensity rather rapidly with a lot of wind.

  28. Dan(Wayne county) says:

    GFS has me in the 12″ range again. Hope its right. Would love to see that much snow from GrandRapids south to the border.

  29. Sharon (Ozark, AL) says:

    Well, isn’t it just like a thing…. we move down south to southeast Alabama, and you go and have the best (worst) winter in ages… and being the snow lover that I am… feel bummed out and wishing I could share. Seeing snow and blowing snow would be so much better than looking out the window at grey/brown blah!! Enjoy your beautiful snow, stay safe and warm. You can take me out of Michigan, but you cannot take my Michigan from my heart…. especially L’Anse (U.P.) from where we moved from!!

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      At least you can go Bass fishing :)

    2. Lisa says:

      Why did you move down there?

  30. We have family getting ready to head home to VA. We are heartbroken to have them leave. Now being even earlier due to deterioration of conditions. How soon does it fill in the SE corner of our state?. Northern Ohio etc.?

    1. They are ready to go..more family on the way to say bye.

      1. Scott says:

        Warnings in SE Mich begin at midnight, still watches for NW Ohio. But you’ll want to get them started for home before it really gets bad here. The sooner, the better.

        1. Scott says:

          (Toledo east are watches.)

  31. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Now as for the upcoming possible snow event. Looks like there is a lot of players that still have to come together for everything to happen some of course will and other may or may not. I don’t always but into the snow fall over lay maps as they are many times way overdone so a rule of thumb is to maybe cut what the overlays have and cut that as much as one half. As Bill just indicated there is a wave of moderate snow fall moving to the south right now. And its this snow fall that the Chicago NWS is talking about for them right now.
    SlimJim

  32. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Hey folks, both the NAM and GFS both agree to over a foot of snow for us. Pretty psyched! I am glad I made it home from PA for this one!

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Scott says:

      Nice to see ya back. Have a good time?

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Thanks Scott. I had wonderful visits. Unfortunately it didn’t snow too much, but it helped me to focus on family. :)
        It is good to be back in Midwest, where people really are less grumpy and less “road rageous”. Let’s keep the midwest friendly, friends!

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      That’s Incredible. Van Buren gets hammered either way. I really hope this thing doesn’t end up being a Bust.

  33. Sharon (Ozark, AL) says:

    I wonder if you guys will have the snow as bad as we did in January of 1967! That blizzard will always stand as the worst snow ever in my lifetime!! ;)

  34. Thank you Scott.. read in next thread 00z-7pm.. midnight it should be ramped up.

  35. Scott says:

    Tom Skilling posted a few min ago images of 3 high res radar imagery on his FB page – they all mainly and pretty much agree for the entire CWA at least 4″ and for SW Mich much, much more. Wow.

    1. Scott says:

      Not radar – rapid refresh models. Think I need to splash some cold water on my face.

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