Warnings and Model Data Thread

January 6th, 2014 at 1:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  There’s a Winter Storm Warning for Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Oceana and Mason Counties until 8 am Tuesday for 1-4″ of new snow plus a lot of blowing and drifting.  The Winter Storm Warning for the counties that border Indiana will end at 4 pm.  With the winds going more westerly, the air that will be coming along the Indiana border won’t be crossing enough of Lake Michigan to generate significant snow, though they still get the blowing and drifting.    We have a Wind Chill Warning until 7 pm Tuesday for wind chill factors down to 30 below zero for most of the area, and as cold as 45 below zero for areas south of a line from Berrien Co. to Ingham Co.  Those areas will see the wind eventually go WSW and you’ll lose the warming influence of Lake Michigan Monday night into Tuesday.  For instance, the NAM (caribou) model shows Grand Rapids reaching a minimum of +2 Monday evening (it’ll probably get a little below that) with a 15 mph wind, but for Jackson, it takes the temperature to -14.2 at daybreak Tuesday with a 23 mph wind.  The difference in wind chill factors would be -17 for Grand Rapids and -42 for Jackson.  That is crazy cold for Michigan.

Model data:  Additional snowfall starting at 7 am thru Tues.:  NAM (caribou model):  Holland 4.8″, S. Haven 4.2″, Grand Rapids 3.8″, Ludington 3.4″,  Muskegon 3.3″, Lansing 2.3″, Kalamazoo 2.1″, Pontiac 1.9″, Cadillac 1.5″, Big Rapids 1.1″, Mt. Pleasant 0.3″.   GFS (caribou):  Ludington 3.2″, Muskegon 2.9″, Grand Rapids 2.6″, Big Rapids 1.0″, Lansing 0.6″, Jackson 0.6″, Cadillac 0.4″.  The European prints out 0.14″ of precipitation for G.R. and that would be about 3″ of snow by Weds. am.  The Euro. is colder, with G.R. getting to -6.4 deg. Monday evening and Jackson down to -14.6 deg. (where the WSW wind misses Lake Michigan.

The models are printing out up to 1/10″ to 1/2″ of mostly rain with temps. in the mid 30s mostly Friday night.  They do give Cadillac some freezing rain/drizzle.  However, the ground is going to be cold and rain at 34 degrees could still ice up…so just a heads up to keep track of the forecasts as we approach the weekend.

15 Responses to “Warnings and Model Data Thread”

  1. Jack says:

    FIRST, Bill did ya Make it Home SAFELY ??? Hope so and Thanks again to You and all of STORM TEAM 8 !!! Your GREAT !! Stay Cue & God Bless !!, :-)

    1. Scott says:

      Hear, Hear!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I’m still here in the Tracking Center. I do have a sleeping bag and pillow here, but I think I’ll head home…tomorrow night I may stay here. Matt is already here, so we’re both working away with the new data coming in.

      1. Jack says:

        Ok Bill, DRIVE SAFE !!! Plz & Thanks AGAIN !! Stay CUEDDDD , ;-)

  2. John (Holland) says:

    My NWS point forecast adds up to 12 more inches by Tuesday night!

  3. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    Near blizzard conditions in Ludington. 4 or 5 inches (at least) since midnight.

  4. Scott says:

    I think its likely that the main intense band may be beginning to transition to a more general LES event based on the last few cycles as NW flow sets in.

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      Definitely set up for the time being right above me…. Snow and wind

      1. Scott says:

        obvious distinct differences between LES fluff and the synoptic stuff visually. Makes for interesting “transition zone layers” on rooftops!

  5. Scott says:

    Actually, the intense line might actually dimininish altogether before general LES kicks in – looks like it’s source feed is over land now. I don’t really know though. LES is not my forte and so I’m just blabbing away here.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      I’d like it to shift just a bit further east before it dies out!

  6. KevinS Exit 41 Saugatuck says:

    Really pilling up here last hour or so…awesome snowfall rates

    1. John (Holland) says:

      You definitely got the sweet spot. It looks like it’s shutting down, and the last portion over the lake will probably get Holland. Hopefully it’ll be good for an inch or two.


  7. My in-laws live in Barry county & your weather map on tv today showdd some counties in black. I went to this site but did not see that particular map. Could you explain what that particular color meant as they a re in their 80s and did not understand nor could I explain. Thanks so much for all you do.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s a Winter Weather Advisory…not much additional snow on Barry Co (more west than east in the county), but we have drifting snow and very cold temps. and wind chills – that prompted the Advisory.

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