Warnings and Model Data ThreadJanuary 6th, 2014 at 1:51 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
There’s a Winter Storm Warning for Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Oceana and Mason Counties until 8 am Tuesday for 1-4″ of new snow plus a lot of blowing and drifting. The Winter Storm Warning for the counties that border Indiana will end at 4 pm. With the winds going more westerly, the air that will be coming along the Indiana border won’t be crossing enough of Lake Michigan to generate significant snow, though they still get the blowing and drifting. We have a Wind Chill Warning until 7 pm Tuesday for wind chill factors down to 30 below zero for most of the area, and as cold as 45 below zero for areas south of a line from Berrien Co. to Ingham Co. Those areas will see the wind eventually go WSW and you’ll lose the warming influence of Lake Michigan Monday night into Tuesday. For instance, the NAM (caribou) model shows Grand Rapids reaching a minimum of +2 Monday evening (it’ll probably get a little below that) with a 15 mph wind, but for Jackson, it takes the temperature to -14.2 at daybreak Tuesday with a 23 mph wind. The difference in wind chill factors would be -17 for Grand Rapids and -42 for Jackson. That is crazy cold for Michigan.
Model data: Additional snowfall starting at 7 am thru Tues.: NAM (caribou model): Holland 4.8″, S. Haven 4.2″, Grand Rapids 3.8″, Ludington 3.4″, Muskegon 3.3″, Lansing 2.3″, Kalamazoo 2.1″, Pontiac 1.9″, Cadillac 1.5″, Big Rapids 1.1″, Mt. Pleasant 0.3″. GFS (caribou): Ludington 3.2″, Muskegon 2.9″, Grand Rapids 2.6″, Big Rapids 1.0″, Lansing 0.6″, Jackson 0.6″, Cadillac 0.4″. The European prints out 0.14″ of precipitation for G.R. and that would be about 3″ of snow by Weds. am. The Euro. is colder, with G.R. getting to -6.4 deg. Monday evening and Jackson down to -14.6 deg. (where the WSW wind misses Lake Michigan.
The models are printing out up to 1/10″ to 1/2″ of mostly rain with temps. in the mid 30s mostly Friday night. They do give Cadillac some freezing rain/drizzle. However, the ground is going to be cold and rain at 34 degrees could still ice up…so just a heads up to keep track of the forecasts as we approach the weekend.