Weds. PM

January 8th, 2014 at 2:06 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   Thurs. AM  – Flurries winding down…cold start to today…models still show significant rain Friday night.  The GRR NWS forecast discussion did a nice job of highlighting the impacts from the coming weather.  I’ll add the possibility of icy roads Sunday morning as temps. may be a little below freezing and the ponding from the rain will likely freeze up.   It’s going to be cold this morning as skies become clear to partly cloudy with light winds.   We could see a brief period of light snow Thurs. night (a dusting) and there could be a little freezing drizzle to cause a few icy spots (in addition to the snow that’s already on the side streets/rural raods) Friday AM.   When the rain starts the ground may be cold enough to produce some icy spots even if temperatures (taken at the 5-foot level) are a little above freezing.  This will be a significant rain – maybe 1/2 to 1″ and there’s no place of the water to go…it’ll soak into the snow (and then freeze when it get’s cold enough.  That may cause a problem for snow that’s on roofs or hanging from gutters (knock the snow off your gutters if you can).  The water will pond on the roads (clear drains and downspouts if you can) and may freeze Sat. night, making for some very icy spots for the church commute Sunday AM.  We’ll flip from above freezing to below freezing several times next week and that will also cause icy spots.  We’ve got news/weather stories on impacts tonight, watch us at 5, 6, 10, and 11.  Here’s current Michigan temperatures, and a national weather map.  Here’s the NAM model 84-hour snowfall and GFS model snowfall thru 120-hours (not much). 

Model update:   The NAM and Euro have highs of around 14 today, I’m with the more optimistic GFS at 18.   We still have flurries around this AM.  Do we clear out and get really cold Thurs. AM?  The Euro. has -6, the GFS +5 and the NAM +11 – I’m siding with the Euro.  The models have a dusting to an inch of snow Thurs. night.  Rain Fri. night/Sat. AM totals 0.60″ on the GFS and 0.69″ on the Euro.  The Euro. has temps. rising to at least the low 40s during Fri. night and the GFS takes us to 40…I’ll stay on the cool side with all the snow we have.  Watch for the rain puddles to freeze Sat. night.  There could be some real icy spots late Sat. night/early Sun. AM.   Sunday is a bit cooler, Monday back to highs in the low 40s – GFS is cooler, in the low-mid 30s.   The models are hinting at more Arctic air sometime around the 18th-22nd.

58″ of snow on the ground at Painesdale. ICE expanding rapidly on the Great Lakes. Cold safety tips.       Check out the lake-effect snow bands coming off Lakes Erie and Ontario – complete with wind gusts to 45-60 mph, visibilities near zero and THUNDERSNOW!

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge.

Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

159 Responses to “Weds. PM”

  1. ER From GR says:

    BREAKING WINTER STORM PREDICTION WARNING!!! I AM PREDICTING A MAJOR, MAJOR, MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY!!! IT WILL RIVAL THE BLIZZARD OF 78! IT WILL HIT THE WEEK OF THE 2ND!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!

    1. Bobby (Ada) says:

      I’m heading to Mars that week… Dang ;)

  2. Jack says:

    Northern lights highly possible over Michigan tonight or Thursday night, and here’s why
    Bay City Times ‎- 2 hours ago
    The northern lights will possibly be visible tonight and Thursday night over Michigan. Spaceweather.com is reporting that a solar flare occurred …

  3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Hey Bill! Why, oh why, when we get these warm ups with rain, THEN Muskegon gets the heaviest precip. Happens every winter…. Lake contribution?

    1. John says:

      I don’t ever notice that Matt, you must pay more attention than me

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I,do! :) how much snow do you think we are going to lose? The NWS doesn’t seem to think much. They just say the “snow will absorb the rain”.

        1. John says:

          I’m doubting we will lose that much, temperatures Friday night will be around 34-35 and that’s too cold to melt much of the snow, and also combine with the ground temps really cold, I agree with the NWS the snow will absorb the rain and make it a more heavier wet packing snow, also too much snowpack to the south to allow really warm air to come in, so we have perfect timing and perfect temps so that the snow doesn’t melt

  4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I was interested in finding out how rain affects snowmelt and came upon this page. I thought rain sped up the melting process, but apparently not much.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/backgrounder_DVN_Snow_Melt.pdf

    1. Jack says:

      Nice, Thanks Matt… StayCued !!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m guessing, if temps don’t get out of the 30′s, there will be less melting, oppose to a rain with temps near 50 per say.

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