100% Chance of Rain

January 10th, 2014 at 2:36 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  SAT. AM -  Despite temperatures in the low 40s, we still have reports of icy roads and slide-offs.  There’s also ponding of water on roads.  Over an inch of rain has fallen in Grand Haven and 3/4″ here in G.R.  Kalamazoo and Battle Creek were  just shy of 1/2″.   There is also a concern that the additional runoff into area rivers will cause the ice to break up, leading to possible ice jams.   We’ll all see icy spots as temps. fall below freezing Sat. night.  I’m on the cold side of the model data for the middle-end of next week.   With the thaw, watch out for falling icicles.  Observe odd/even parking where applicable.  Clear fire hydrants, drains and downspouts.  Here’s the  GRR NWS forecast discussion, current Michigan temperatures, and a national weather map. Here’s the NAM model 84-hour snowfall and GFS model snowfall thru 120-hours .  ICE expanding rapidly on the Great Lakes. Model update from last night’s data:  The overnight European prints out 0.76″ of mostly rain (maybe 1/2-1″ of snow as it tapers off Sat. pm.  Most of the rain will fall from 4 pm Fri. to 9 am Sat.  Temperatures will rise to 38-40 Fri. night shortly after midnight, then fall to 32 by late Saturday and at least down into the upper 20s by Sunday morning.  That means all the slush and all the puddles will ice up by the Sunday church commute.  Sunday may be the best chance of a dry day, though it’ll be breezy and cool.   Monday on the Euro. is mainly dry with highs in the upper 30s to near 4o.  The Euro. has 1/2″ of snow Tue. and low 30s…Wednesday is a cold day with snow showers and temps. in the low-mid 20s.  Thursday we’re back to a chance of a light snow and low 30s…then chilly next Friday.       The GFS has 0.79″ of rain (very similar to the Euro.) …an overnight max of 38 or 39…falling to the mid-upper 20s with a freeze up Sat. night.  It has .05″ of a mix Monday, what could be 2-4″ of snow Tues. with temps. slowly falling during the day from 30 to 25.  Weds. is chilly, low-mid 20s, Thurs. back to 34…Friday is chilly again, low-mid 20s.  For what it’s worth, the GFS prints out 40 for the 21st and 23rd…way too early to put any stock in that.   The NAM is the wettest at 1.09″  with the rain starting at 32.4 deg…it has a max. of 36 Fri.  Night (I’ll buy the warmer Euro.)  Sunday am is down to 25, 36 breezy and dry Sun. PM, a little rain or a mix Monday night (the NAM only goes out 72 hrs.). Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

204 Responses to “100% Chance of Rain”

  1. Jack says:

    Speaking of Cars being Stuck or Broken Down ! You Will Never Believe Who, I Talked To TODAY on The Side of THE ROAD !! See Here:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yhpq2oDPT9w. Lol, and Remember it’s Better with A JOINT, than With a Drink I THINK!!! Stay CUED!!! :-)

  2. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The back roads south of Battle Creek were in bad shape this afternoon still. That was before the rain started. Glad I got out of there before the rain.

  3. Barb says:

    The yellow seems to have dissipated.

  4. INDYY says:


    1. Jack says:

      Yup, Just Like” The Chief” Bill said Would Happen !!! Bill is amazing & Great That”s Why I ( stay cued)))) 2—- Storm Team 8 !!!!!!! :-)

  5. WswPlz says:

    WswPlz says:
    January 10, 2014 at 7:39 pm
    According to NWS we will be back in a wintry pattern again next week…Starting late Monday rain will convert to snow and cold air makes its way back in by Tuesday. Snow cont. into Wednesday….and then more LES Thurs. Fri. So basically back to winter. Sometime after our moderate snow this week, I feel a WINTER STORM WARNING for all of lower Michigan. Enjoy the calm before the apocalypse! WSW


    1. Jack says:

      Imagine That….Just Like The JEM said it Would Be !!! Can The JEM Hit AGAIN, on another Bullseye VICTORY . Just Stay Cued, and We WILL SEE !!! Ain’t Dat RIGHT INDY……..?? ;-)

  6. Dan says:

    Kind of difficult to believe. Just a few days ago we were below zero! Now, its almost 8:30 in the evening and its raining! Snow pack is hanging in there. Winter precip returns next week!

    1. Jack says:

      Dan, Nothing Not Hard To Believe !! I’ve Lived in Michigan for 58years , and I’ve seen it all . Stay Cued!!!

  7. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    The pot holes are popping up like dandelions in May!

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Ned, I’ve got a Idea how we Could Fix Those POT Holes !!!! Even gottta SLOGAN to go along with IT !!! Stay cued !

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        Whatcha got for us Jack?

        1. Jack says:

          Here goes Ned. We Legalize Pot in Michigan and Tax It !! Take That TAX MONEY, and Use IT. To Fix The POT Holes !!! The SLOGAN IS ” POT for POT HOLES” !!! What Cha THINK??? STAYIN Cued!!! Lol… ;-)

        2. Jack says:

          Ya, Bill watch Some Politician STEAL My Slogan !! Remember You Heard it HERE FIRST on Your Blog !!! Lol…. Stay Cued..y’all !! ;-)

        3. Bruiseviolet (CedarRock) says:

          LoL Jack

        4. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

          Far out man!

  8. WswPlz says:

    “This winter is shaping up to be a rough one,” says Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. “Sweaters and snow shovels should be unpacked early and kept close by throughout the season.”

    All of these pieces factor in for the perfect snowstorm in January :

    –NAO AO PNA Combo teleconnections
    –EPO trending
    –Snow Cover in the U.S. and Canada
    –Sub Tropical Jet (Southern Jet)
    –Matching the Phase game (between the Northern/Southern Jet)
    –Vort Max and Clipper Central (How do they play off each other?)
    –The “X” factors in this all.

    SO WHEN WILL IT SNOW – JAN 23 IS THE DAY TO MARK DOWN( according to live weather blogs) 1/1 in JAN

    1. WswPlz says:

      While some components are already trending in are favor( such as overall snowpack ) most variables are much harder to forecast. As I leave that up to the professional Mets, more specifically Bill S. But it’s always fun to watch trends and speculate. So here is to a long and snowy winter, with a fantastic start. Special thanks to the big guy behind it all. :)

  9. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    So is this the craziest winter ever? Tornadoes in November, lake effect snowstorms for the beginning of December, the snowstorm last week, the Arctic Blast, and now a drenching rain with a possible freeze up! This is what we were talking about! Just don’t think of a nice, dry, warm summer at the beach…

    1. kevin. w says:

      Oh were just gettin’ warmed up for the rest of winter/spring. This pattern is going to amplify more and more with bigger storms along with flooding and potholes the size of craters. Just be ready for the wild and crazy pattern and if you look back at what has happened so far that should be a pretty good tell tale for up and coming.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        + one trillion bazillion!

    2. Jack says:

      Craziest Winter Ever ? In your Life Maybe, But Not Mine…..Stay Cued !! ;-)

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        What winter was crazier Jack? It would be cool to know!

    3. Bobby (Ada) says:

      I’m on my way to that hot sunny beach as we speak ;) and tomorrow i’ll be on the golf course! Southern Florida here i come!!!!!

      1. Jack says:

        Snow Bird ? Bobby…..? Lol…. ;-)

        1. Bobby (Ada) says:

          Just taking a little vacation with the girlfriend to relax… I’ll be back for the snowstorm next weekend ;)

        2. Jack says:

          Hey Bobby, We will ” Leave The LIGHT” on For Ya…. Lol.,,, stay..CUED…. & Have fun in The SUN!! Peace.. ;-)

  10. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    The roads are AWFUL around here. Either icy in colder spots, slush that pushes your tires around or completely flooded because the water doesn’t have anywhere to go.

    Snowpack doesn’t seem to be going too fast. It has definitely compacted some…but still lots left. Hopefully the rain dwindles off sooner than later…

    1. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

      Tell me about it. Slid through an intersection on my way to pick up Pizza Hut. Exiting the Ferrysberg exit from 31 looked ok, but slid straight into the intersection, and I even exited slow. Was lucky there were no cars coming. Next time, I’ll stay with Hemlock/North Fruitport/168th.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Yikes! Good thing you didn’t get hit. I know two different times this winter where I have slid out onto busy Henry St. Thank God the people somehow missed me. I really do plan on hibernating until Sunday morning. :)

    2. mr. negative says:

      Yep…ice remains on most suburban roads…regardless of the rain -

  11. Rocky (Rockford) says:


    1. SW Kent says:

      Rocky, how many inches of snow do we get next week in GR?

      1. WswPlz says:

        Hey SW Kent, when you received 22 inches of snow on 02-01-11 including the 2nd was that synoptic or LES?

        1. SW Kent says:


  12. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    The State Police have our dirt roads closed because 10+ vehicles are stuck at the bottom of the hills and they can’t get up the hills. Our roads are an ice rink. Even my dad spun out on our dirt roads on his snowmobile.

    1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

      Now that sucks!

  13. bluegill says:

    Light rain started about 8pm here in NE Grand Traverse County. There was a bit of a mist prior to that. By 8:30 there was a layer of ice on the roads as we are at or slightly below freezing. Went out this morning with the snowmobile to pack my snowshoe trails in the woods. The rain will settle them a bit more and then when they freeze up tomorrow and we get a couple inches on top the shoeing will be ideal. The snow had been a loose sugar powder due to the low temperatures, so I’d sink pretty deep before this weather pattern.

  14. John says:

    Back roads are glare ice in Norton Shores! Very slippery !!!

    1. WswPlz says:

      Why are people happy to see the rain again, please remind me because I can’t think of one good reason. Gosh what a difference 10 degrees makes, this would be a healthy snow. ( I need to stop dreaming its snow ) wake me when it’s snowing…

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I am not happy to see rain. Yuck. Some people on here, won’t mention names, love the warm weather and make sure everybody knows it. Or, they just hate winter.

        1. WswPlz says:

          I don’t get it….??? Earlier when some were saying bring the rain.. So we can drive in this, REALLY!!!

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Which back roads are you referring to?

      1. John says:

        Side snow covered streets, or dirt gravel roads, which there aren’t very many of in NS

  15. Bruiseviolet (CedarRock) says:

    Icy patches? LoL ALL of the roads in Rockford/Cedar are literally sheets of ice. Drive careful please!

    1. WswPlz says:

      Great, I’m just about to run to the store. At least in the snow I can drive my Danali with AWD. But in the ice might has well take the car, cause all bets are off. Turn the snow machine back to LES setting please. Thanks for the heads up violet. :)

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes, I have 2 AWD vehicles. Great in the snow, but ice, forget it. Unless you drive a county snow plow, forget it.

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I have the practice ACT tomorrow! Please be canceled :p

  16. Lots of flooded roadways in Byron Center. If you are not dealing with the flooding, its the slippery roads that are icy. Already several slid-offs here in Byron Center. Stay safe everyone!!

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      If it isn’t the snow covered and slippery roads it is slippery roads with the rain. Can’t seem to win right now on the roads.

  17. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    The temp is up to 40° here with rain. And yes there is a lot of water on many of the streets in GR and just out side of GR. My road is a combination of lots of slush and water. And this will continue for the rest of tonight and tomorrow as well.

  18. mr. negative says:


  19. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    After this rain event and maybe yet another one on Sunday (maybe light snow in-between) we then return to a more “average” mid January pattern for the next week or so. Now as to what happens after next week and the rest of January is still very much up in the air. As there are no clear indications one way or the other. And if the CPC’s long range guess pans out, while showing a good chance of below average temps leading to an equal chance with most above chance of above average rain or snow. But it also has a very high chance of a lot of warmth off to our west and southwest. And if that is the case there is always a chance of some of that warm air to head this way. As we are more then over due for a major pattern chance I think that that chance is higher then 50/50 and there is some backing of that in some of the models. In other words maybe, just maybe the worst of this winter has already happened. Of course there can and always will be surprises and I would expect this winter to have a few more coming yet.

  20. If only right now we could be 80 degrees and having a line of severe thunderstorms rolling in! I would love that right now!

  21. Jack says:

    ****** WATER ALERT **** RE: ” Rosa Park Ice Rink” !! Bill , just said it is NOW a Lake !! So, For Those of US, That Would Like To ” Walk ON WATER” !!! Hope to See ya There !! Lol…..stay Cued !!!

  22. Scott says:

    Steady rain most of the evening – and little snow melt. Snow has literally absorbed the rain nearly completely.

    1. Jack says:

      Kinda Like a Sponge !! ;-)

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It melted off the deck post….I always wonder why that is the first to go. More warm air completely surrounding it?

  23. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Why does southeastern Michigan often stay cooler in these setups?

  24. Todd In Nunica says:

    Just back from scraping slush, main roads are fine,(side streets are…well, many inches of slush, slick, bumpy) lots of water on the edges though, hard to see when its dark and raining, driving along and woosh you run through a puddle. Had to create a drain at one account, had about 8-10″ of water in the low area of the lot, held in by snow piles, was pretty cool when I broke through the berm, like a dam let loose.

    I will enjoy the weekend off with my family, been a while since I could relax.

    1. Jack says:

      Todd , Enjoy your Relaxation With ” Family ” this Wekend !!! You deserve IT !! Speaking of ” Family” !! Have you ever Heard This SONG, By Joe Walsh ? Tune Simply Called ” FAMILY” !! CUE & ENJOY !! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCqWMk8jXeY. God Bless U & Your Family !! :-)

  25. WswPlz says:

    Okay I think it’s time to start a new thread, I really don’t link seeing the 100% rain with the radar as a back drop. How depressing, the rain can stop now, plz.

    1. Jack says:

      Hmmmm it COULD BE Worse WSW…. It could Say 100% Chance of a Flood ,!!! http://www.rabbimoffic.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/noahs-ark1.jpg. ;-) .

      1. WswPlz says:

        Yes, on the bright side of things your correct. Actually don’t say that because the next headline might just include something about flooding. I’m sure unfortunately some where there will be flooding.

      2. WswPlz says:

        Ha lol, I read your link after I replied. No…don’t have time to build an arch.

        1. WswPlz says:

          Ya, meant ark, I don’t have time to build any of the above…

        2. Jack says:

          No Need To WORRY WSW ! He’ll Take Care of The Rest !!! Cue ::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUwZIV-C_3Q. God Bless Ya …..WSW & Stay Cued ,,, my Friend ! :-)

      3. WswPlz says:

        You too Jack, keep the tunes rollin and the Jem rackin and stacking. More winter weather to come!!! God bless.

        1. Jack says:

          BTW.. Wsw…” New Thread ” ^^^^^^^^. ;-)

  26. WswPlz says:

    They were trucking snow out of down town Cedar Springs about an hour ago. It is staring to flood a little already. This is not a thaw, it’s a straight melt. Bye snow, for now, please come back stronger than before.

    1. WswPlz says:

      Thanks lol,,,,, need to sleep soon it looks like.

  27. Dan says:

    Lots of ponding water as forecasted. Most of the roads just wet. That is far better than they’ve been ! Please walkers, joggers, and runners Stay Off the Streets! I turned the corner onto a much busier road this am (84th) and there was somebody walking against traffic. He was wearing very dark clothing. Ialmost did NOT see him and hit him. PLEASE be careful!

    1. Todd in Nunica says:

      I saw one guy…One time that had on a suitable reflective running suit, he lit up like a bright white led light from over 1/4 mile away, looked pretty cool and was easy to see. I have nearly got a few joggers running in the traffic lanes at night, during white outs, etc….it’s gotten crazy….

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        The Spring Lake pathway has been kindly plowed by whoever does it…so there is no reason they should be on the road now around here. I know you mentioned almost hitting somebody on West Spring Lake Rd… I walk the pathway often along there, as my neighborhood is just off this Rd. I often see joggers on the road. I don’t get it.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I don’t get why the choose the road either. Especially at night. I don’t know how many times I have had close calls with walkers, or cyclers on the roads this winter, especially when sidewalks are clear. Dangerous, common sense people!

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